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Wkd Box Office 01•08-10•16 - #1 (& Oscar? >_>) elude Leo as TFA 4peats & breaks China

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Bobby Roberts said:
DID YOU KNOW:

Scumbag is a euphemism for a filled condom.
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900x900px-LL-732a52cb_TheMoreYouKnow.gif
 
greatestjediever said:
Is that just the 3-day weekend, or including MLK?

Wednesday had a solid hold of 3.1m. Seems most estimates for the 4-day weekend are ~30M with the 3-day around the low 20s.
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Low 20s for the weekend proper would be a pretty poor MLK weekend hold.

Even Sherlock Holmes managed a 40% drop on MLK weekend, and that wasn't an especially great hold. The same hold for Star Wars would be $25.25M

I'm thinking we will get a bit better than that. Maybe high 20s.

EDIT: As an aside, I knew that Star Wars would miss that best pic nom, despite some people here calling it a lock. Mad Max and the Martian soaked up all of the populist movie love.
 
kswiston said:
EDIT: As an aside, I knew that Star Wars would miss that best pic nom, despite some people here calling it a lock. Mad Max and the Martian soaked up all of the populist movie love.
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People were calling it a lock? Weird. Was never anything close to a lock.

I don't know that Mad Max was all that "populist" either, but hey.
 
kswiston said:
Low 20s for the weekend proper would be a pretty poor MLK weekend hold.

Even Sherlock Holmes managed a 40% drop on MLK weekend, and that wasn't an especially great hold. The same hold for Star Wars would be $25.25M

I'm thinking we will get a bit better than that. Maybe high 20s.

EDIT: As an aside, I knew that Star Wars would miss that best pic nom, despite some people here calling it a lock. Mad Max and the Martian soaked up all of the populist movie love.
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Whoops, forgot about MLK weekend. In that case, I'm going with 28M.
 
Bobby Roberts said:
People were calling it a lock? Weird. Was never anything close to a lock.

I don't know that Mad Max was all that "populist" either, but hey.
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Yeah I didn't hear anyone call Star Wars a lock. Mad Max was getting all the noms and awards throughout the whole awards season --- That was a lock for a Oscar nom.

And I agree Max Max was not populist. At all.
 
gamz said:
And I agree Max Max was not populist. At all.
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It's not Star Wars, but it's not Room or Spotlight either. The Revenant will probably get up there as well, but Fury Road and The Martian are by far the most watched films in the Best Picture category. You don't get to $150M+ domestic without appealing to general audiences.
 
Looks like The Revenant is sneaking into some IMAX screens this weekend, but sharing them with Star Wars (my local AMC IMAX seems to have Star Wars at 11:30 and 6:45, and Revenant at 2:45 and 10:10). This page has a list of theaters getting The Revenant in IMAX.

I'd bet they'll split the screens like this until The Finest Hours fully takes over IMAX on January 29th.
 
The Force Awakens is the first post-Gone with the Wind film to be the biggest Domestic film of all-time and NOT be nominated for Best Picture. The others to hold that status at given points were (though box office statistics pre modern era are always somewhat debatable) The Ten Commandments, The Sound of Music, Jaws, Star Wars, E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial, Titanic, and Avatar.
 
ViewtifulJC said:
The Force Awakens is the first post-Gone with the Wind film to be the biggest Domestic film of all-time and NOT be nominated for Best Picture. The others to hold that status at given points were (though box office statistics pre modern era are always somewhat debatable) The Ten Commandments, The Sound of Music, Jaws, Star Wars, E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial, Titanic, and Avatar.
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How can you be #1 domestic all-time and NOT be nominated for Best Picture? /Anakin outburst
 
ViewtifulJC said:
The Force Awakens is the first post-Gone with the Wind film to be the biggest Domestic film of all-time and NOT be nominated for Best Picture. The others to hold that status at given points were (though box office statistics pre modern era are always somewhat debatable were) The Ten Commandments, The Sound of Music, Jaws, Star Wars, E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial, Titanic, and Avatar.
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We can probably blame the weird way the Academy tallies votes for Best Pic now. I'd suspect TFA wouldn't have many first, second or third spots on ballots, but it could have quite a few 4 and 5 spots. Which would be effectively worthless.
 
-griffy- said:
We can probably blame the weird way the Academy tallies votes for Best Pic now. I'd suspect TFA wouldn't have many first, second or third spots on ballots, but it could have quite a few 4 and 5 spots. Which would be effectively worthless.
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True. I forgot where I read it, but you basically need about 5% of the 6,000 voters to put your movie as #1 in the preferential ballot system. Or have a shitload of #2/#3s if you can't get that. TFA wasn't gonna inspire that kind of passion...all the blockbuster votes went to Fury Road and The Martian anyway.

Think it has a real shot at Best Visual Effects, tho!
 
Kagari said:
If anything, Creed was robbed of not being on there.
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It absolutely was. Of course this is the same organization that picked Big Hero 6 over Song of the Sea, Princess Kaguya, and the Lego Movie for best Animated Picture, the last of which wasn't even nominated. If they can't be bothered to care about your movie, then you're just out of luck.
 
Kagari said:
If anything, Creed was robbed of not being on there.
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Creed likely suffered the same fate as TFA: not enough 1st, 2nd and 3rd votes.

Going the other way, if the current voting situation had taken place in 2010, Avatar probably wouldn't have gotten a Best Pic nom either.

If they had a 10 film requirement this year, I think it's very probable both TFA and Creed could have gotten in. At least one of them for sure.
 
kswiston said:
EDIT: As an aside, I knew that Star Wars would miss that best pic nom, despite some people here calling it a lock. Mad Max and the Martian soaked up all of the populist movie love.
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I wasn't very shocked this morning, even though I trumpeted the film getting a nod a month ago, because it missed a PGA nom. So that showed some real weakness with the Academy. I am still surprised that the narrative of its BO fell so flat though, and I don't think it has anything to do with The Martian sucking up the populist quota. Star Wars beating Avatar just felt more like a "oh, well yeah" moment than the momentous occasion it did Avatar beating Titanic.

Anyway, I think TFA is going to look at a drop around 30% this weekend (for the 3-day). It's only losing 312 theaters, compared to the 1000+ the Hobbit sequels shredded.
 
mjc said:
If Episodes VIII and IX are the same level of quality, I think we can expect a nomination for IX. (Like Return of the King got)
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I'm not sure
TFA was no where near the level of quality that any of the LOTR films were
 
mjc said:
If Episodes VIII and IX are the same level of quality, I think we can expect a nomination for IX. (Like Return of the King got)
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It's not similar. Fellowship was up for shit load of awards. I think 13 of them including BP and BD.

Edit: Or what AShec said.
 
It's worth nothing that LOTR was an exceptional situation, but there were also only 5 nominees for Best Pic back then. It's a bit easier to get in these days, so if VIII and/or IX are legitimately good and even better received than VII, they could sneak into the field. Feel like they would have to be really good though.
 
Star Wars will probably go home empty handed. I think that Hateful 8 will take best score and Mad Max will pull an inception and take all the tech stuff. Disney will have to console themselves with their $2B in box office gross and many billions in merchandising.

Sort of related, I thought it was humourous to see Age of Ultron and Jurassic World lose their best visual effects spot to a film with one 15th the budget (Ex Machina)
 
No Star Wars best pic nomination? Guess I need to find a good Whedon avatar for Charles Foster Kane to bear for a month or so.
I know he will take his punishment like a man.
 
True Savior said:
To contextualize how crazy cinema was back in the day

yYnytbo.png


This is ticket admissions in EU 15. In 1955 was 4058 million vs 932million in 2002. 4 times less with quite an increase of population. Shamefully they don't have the rest of the decade.

It took a huge dive until the 80's where it started to recover.
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So what you're saying is television killed cinema and it's just been bleeding out for like 60 years?
 
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