Tim Kaine or, less likely, Julian Castro.
Basically someone here: https://www.predictit.org/Market/1530/Who-will-win-the-2016-Democratic-vice-presidential-nomination
Hillary destroying Bernie among minorities. women, age 50+ in New NBC/WSJ Poll
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Tim Kaine or, less likely, Julian Castro.
Basically someone here: https://www.predictit.org/Market/1530/Who-will-win-the-2016-Democratic-vice-presidential-nomination
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
I forgot that the entire campaign is about one single topic.
How could I forget, how could we all forget.
Gordon Shumway
Banned
THAT is horribly catchy lol..
So you are picking one thing they disagree on and making it her whole campaign? Yeesh.
NoblesseOblige
Banned
Not as odd as the ignorant hate.
Yeah, Bernie supporters who say that don't help the perception that Bernie supporters don't care about black people.
User 463088
Banned
Wait...what? In politics, you never, ever give up a chance to control a media cycle. Hillary's October was freaking ridiculous. She kicked ass at the first debate. She schooled the BENGHAZZI!!!! committee for eleven hours. Bernie had some momentum in the summer which is inept campaign managed to squander spectacularly.
Bernie benefits greatly from the fact that Iowa and New Hampshire play to his demographic strengths. Specifically, they're both full of white people, both are semi-open or open primaries/caucuses. New Hampshire has a ton of independents and is very close to his home state.
His poll numbers in Iowa are misleading because nearly 27% of his support comes from just 3 of Iowa's counties, which in turn are only responsible for 21% of the potential delegates. Since popular vote means bull pucky in Iowa, this doesn't help him. He can run up huge margins in areas where there are a ton of college kids, but he nets only a few delegates more than Hillary since she'll always meet the delegate threshold.
His inability to resonate with PoC, older voters and women (the three most reliable primary voting groups in a Dem primary) is a challenge. Hillary's advantage among these groups is obvious to anyone who followed the 2008 Primary season at all.
This race is nearly blow by blow a repeat of Gore/Bradley in 2000. The final Iowa poll showed Gore ahead by two. He won by 30. (Hillary won't win by 30. If she wins, it will be by mid to upper single digits.)
Coffee Dog
Banned
Bernie's extremely transparent attempts to make up for his raceblind liberal base are embarrassing. No wonder Hilary has the lead.
"L-l-look guys, he's talking to rappers and marched with MLK! He understands!"
"L-l-look guys, he's talking to rappers and marched with MLK! He understands!"
legacyzero
Banned
If peddling fear, racism, etc is what you want, then sure. You're right.
Hillary love? I don't know who I'm voting for. I just hate people who seem to distort and warp the records of any candidate, which you've now done for Trump, Hillary, AND Bernie. That takes work!
That is some truly scary shit "Fuck it lets burn the whole house down" mentality has to stop.
googleplex
Member
This is completely false and you know it!. On the vast majority of the issues Bernie and Hillary are on the same page. Always have been.
Even if you think they differ on the issue most important you. That a far cry on "Completely against her views".
You realize that even if elected none of his policies are going to get past congress. Even if he had a democratic congress most of his stuff would go nowhere.
water_wendi
Water is not wet!
im going to go out on a limb and speculate that demographic is where being socialist anything is hurting Sanders most. Some old people i know (80+) will rant about socialism but they sure as hell love their social security and medicare.
Complete bullshit. It's amazing how uninformed you.
UltimaPooh
Member
Haha. What?
Pretty much how I feel
I think the race will be closer than many people think, even if Trump is the nominee.
With that in mind, I'd prefer Senator Kaine from Virginia. Virginia(13EVs) has been trending blue over the past decade, and he's stayed rather popular since going from being Mayor of Richmond to being Senator. That, and his Spanish is pretty decent. One undercovered story of 2015 was the number of appearances Hillary has made on Spanish-speaking media outlets, so he'd dovetail nicely with her.
The Vice Presidential debate in October also takes place right outside of Richmond. They'd be able to exit the debate and do one hell of a rally that night, or in the following days. Kaine lines-up with her so damn well.
Given that so many states have gone blue in every election since 1992, and given that New Mexico and Nevada are looking further and further out of reach for the GOP, locking-down Virginia would put her one state away from 270. Her opponent would be able to win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado.. if she wins lil' ol' New Hampshire(4EVs) - another state that's been trending blue - she'd be right at 270. Game over. We'd know the race is over when the East Coast polls are closed and VA is called.
If he were the nominee, he'd have to fight a century's worth of programming on the evils of that word. It'd be a huge drag on his prospects, and I'm highly skeptical that the programming could be sufficiently countered in one cycle. I love him to bits, and I'd weep like a baby if he won the general.. so this is more a knock on the American electorate than it is on him.
Oh I am sorry you just said you would want him to win instead. Huge difference there.
Mushroomer25
Member
The choice makes sense. If you're a minority voter, there are two options. There's Sanders, who speaks to your groups' larger interests - but is far less electable than a GOP candidate who stands to destroy those interests. Alternatively, there's Clinton. Less passionate about those core interests, but a safer bet in a national race. If you want to avoid the GOP, the answer is easy.
Non-minorities have an easier pick. Regardless of who wins, they don't stand to lose much. So why not make a riskier bet, if you aren't petrified by the potential of loss?
googleplex
Member
Michelle Obama. Just to see the Republicans heads explode.
QuiteWhittle
Member
Their views are so completely dissimilar that their voting records together in the Senate are 93% the same.
Eh, Clinton and Sanders' divergence is pretty significant. While they both broadly agree on LGBT rights, and immigration reform, and other softball issues, their positions on foreign policy and healthcare are radically different. Clinton is a mildly progressive establishment candidate who seeks to preserve the general social order of the United States, whereas Sanders is a reformist whose chief concern is closing the ever-growing wealth divide in this country. While Clinton doesn't support this massive rift among Americans, she's not too willing to change it.
Is there actual polling data to suggest this is the reason for the divergence or is this speculation from posters on GAF?
This makes a lot of sense and she should probably go this direction but
I would love to see this, it would be spectacular. The salt would surpass anything we've ever seen.
Young Male minority from the Midwest or South would be great for Hillary.
Trying and failing don't do shit for anyone.
Coffee Dog
Banned
Exactly. Hilary ignored BLM for longer than Bernie did, but she didn't fumble it in the beginning. That's key.
Bernie supporters have problems with race. Hilary's base ignores race. One of those is more appealing on the most surface level.
Not exist, because her experience as a first lady is a large part of her identity.
Barack.
I wish it was Diamond Joe Biden.
Gordon Shumway
Banned
This would be amazing..
LyleLanley
Banned
That just would've made Bill our first gay president!!
I never knew how much I wanted this.
It would also send those screaming about "family dynasties" into hysterics.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
I know, probably the most annoying thing I hear as an argument/excuse for Sander's poor numbers in all other major demographics that aren't white young dudes.
Joking aside, Obama can do a lot more for the world and country by getting the fuck out of politics
Unless he's nominated for the supreme court that is.
theignoramus
Member
She accepted donations from for profit prisons.
She is an unprincipled opportunist and nasty individual who is lucky to be running in a year when the alternative is madness and lunacy.
UltimaPooh
Member
I mean... I'm white.
Maybe it's not the reason why they don't like Bernie...
But I honestly don't know why other Demographics wouldn't be into what he is laying down.
People say he's not electable and thats a reason they don't want to vote for him... but the only way he gets electable is if you do. And Iowa and New Hampshire prove that he IS electable.
Then people try to point out his lack of support for BLM or Civil Rights but that has been proven wrong time and time again.
I honestly would like to know if it's not because they don't know much about Bernie... then what is it?
There ya go Bernie boosters, deal with that.
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