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[Vestal]

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/.../01/super-tuesday-results-live-state-by-state

The Margins for Hillary are insane.

 

[Rubenov]

rubio won the great state of minnesota and that is all that matters.

Unstoppable Marcomentum

 

[maabus1999]

A better night that I expected for Bernie but that delegate gap is far too large to overcome and that's not counting the super delegates that will not swing to Bernie unless he starts piling up win after win

Dear lord at the destruction of Rubio though

Unfortunately Bernie fell is projected to miss his delegate target count by 75 (projected to get about 325, had to be above 400 to stay competitive), so the math is really stacking up against him how.

By Mar 15, if he stays in and no major change in voting behavior, he'll basically be campaigning on his message instead of actually winning the nomination. His right to do that but the downside is it may not let enough time for Bernie's supporters to heal and support Clinton/Democratic party.

 

[metalslimer]

Anything can happen

a viral debate moment, a "gaffe", some compelling new ad campaign

It's like in sports, right? We don't play the games on paper, otherwise the number 1 seed would always win. We make the teams go through to the end, even in a blow-out. And usually the result is expected, but every once in a while the Aaron Rodgers completes the Hail Mary.

Except this is more like a team being up 50 and saying miracles can happen. While Bernie won't get trounced like this in as many states again, he's not going to blow Clinton out with Vermont level wins to catch up

 

[MartyStu]

I can find a quote in this thread and others literally doing what I said.

Can you find one doing what you said?

I do not need to look for some random person on Neogaf to make that point.

This has been insinuated by Clinton's campaign and at least 2 prominent Hillary supporters.

It is a shitty thing to insinuate, but it is not the be-all and end-all. I do not condemn her or her campaign categorically because of it.

Not that I think it was necessary for me to say that because it take willful ignorance to pretend like people have not insinuated that before.

 

[danm999]

I assume Silver will update this at some point, but if you want to rank how Hilldawg and Bern After Reading did compared to how they needed to do you can.

 

[OpinionatedCyborg]

Back-Of-The-Envelope Delegate Projections: Tonight Sucks For Rubio

Here are my back-of-the-envelope delegate projections: Based on current vote counts and each state and district’s allocation rules, Trump is on track to end up with about 262 delegates, Cruz is on track to win about 215, and Rubio is on track to win about 93. That’s an even more awful result for Rubio than I thought, and it’s a lot worse for Rubio than The New York Times’s Upshot model is currently projecting. After tonight, Rubio could be more than 100 delegates behind Cruz and more than 200 delegates behind Trump.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday-primaries-presidential-election-2016/

 

[harSon]

It's pretty much over at this point. There's too many states in Hilary's favor leading through the 15th of this month.

 

[Maintenance]

I can find a quote in this thread and others literally doing what I said.

Can you find one doing what you said?

Albright: 'There's a special place in hell' for women who don't back Clinton

Is that site not good enough? Ok, here's another source.

Gloria Steinem and Madeleine Albright Rebuke Young Women Backing Bernie Sanders

“It’s not done. There’s a special place in hell for women who don’t help each other!”

I'm not saying he's right, but there is proof.

 

[Vestal]

In all seriousness I think Bernie has an image problem. He just comes off very preachy. Even more so than Clinton at this point. Clinton has managed to come off much more approachable within the last few weeks. She knocked that town hall out of the park.

I think Bernie's progressive ideas are great. Even if I believe these ideas are sometimes not feasible in our country's current climate.

I'm really hoping that democrats actually show up to vote. Too much at stake here to sit at home and pout.


My parents had me read gifted hands a few times when i was younger. I'll never be able to see the Carson in the same light. He has truly tarnished his legacy.

Bernies problem is whenever he tries to say something outside of his core message. He has a messaging problem, he simply doesn't connect outside of his close held beliefs. Its March 2nd and he still hasn't figured out how to get your message together.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

Unfortunately Bernie fell is projected to miss his delegate target count by 75 (projected to get about 325, had to be above 400 to stay competitive), so the math is really stacking up against him how.

By Mar 15, if he stays in and no major change in voting behavior, he'll basically be campaigning on his message instead of actually winning the nomination. His right to do that but the downside is it may not let enough time for Bernie's supporters to heal and support Clinton/Democratic party.

This is very true, and luckily he still has the money and one debate to make another pitch at Michigan, Ohio, MO and NC.

 

[noshten]

Thank you Dulce for a hell of a job in Colorado

 

[royalan]

The people who are demanding that Bernie drop out today are the same people who said Bernie should drop out after Iowa.

Hillary didn't drop out in the 2008 primaries until June.

Stop it guys. You know what you're doing is wrong.

And he's in an even worse position than she was then!

And at least Hillary had some big states to point to in order to fuel her delusion. Bernie doesn't even have that.

 

[JVIDICAN]

This is very true, and luckily he still has the money and one debate to make another pitch at Michigan, Ohio, MO and NC.

Isn't it 2 debates? One Michigan one Florida?

 

[The Lamonster]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday-primaries-presidential-election-2016/

I get why Rubio's not doing well. I don't get why Cruz and Trump are doing so well.

 

[Afrocious]

My parents had me read gifted hands a few times when i was younger. I'll never be able to see the Carson in the same light. He has truly tarnished his legacy.

haha I was given the book as a kid as well.

I mean, IIRC, in that book, you can kinda tell he was full of himself though.

 

[Battersea Power Station]

Except this is more like a team being up 50 and saying miracles can happen. While Bernie won't get trounced like this in as many states again, he's not going to blow Clinton out with Vermont level wins to catch up

Of course not. But... anything can happen

 

[plagiarize]

Albright: 'There's a special place in hell' for women who don't back Clinton

Is that site not good enough? Ok, here's another source.

Gloria Steinem and Madeleine Albright Rebuke Young Women Backing Bernie Sanders

“It’s not done. There’s a special place in hell for women who don’t help each other!”

I'm not saying he's right, but there is proof.

What are their GAF accounts?

 

[Massive Duck. C.M.]

I do not need to look for some random person on Neogaf to make that point.

This has been insinuated by Clinton's campaign and at least 2 prominent Hillary supporters.

It is a shitty thing to insinuate, but it is not the be-all and end-all.

Not that I think it was necessary for me to say that because it take willful ignorance to pretend like people have not insinuated that before.

The post I addressed was talking about this thread, specifically.

I am aware that people outside of Gaf have these opinions.

 

[ApharmdX]

In all seriousness I think Bernie has an image problem. He just comes off very preachy. Even more so than Clinton at this point. Clinton has managed to come off much more approachable within the last few weeks. She knocked that town hall out of the park.

I think Bernie's progressive ideas are great. Even if I believe these ideas are sometimes not feasible in our country's current climate.

I'm really hoping that democrats actually show up to vote. Too much at stake here to sit at home and pout.

I agree with you. I think Bernie as a single issue candidate is great. When he veers from that issue, he gets muddy, and struggles to stay on-message. Clinton beats him here, there's no doubt.

But I think you'd agree with me that Sanders is 100x on social issues, particularly black issues, than any Republican left in the race? Even if he sounds preachy at times.

I'll show up and vote for Hillary, absolutely. I see white liberals in my circle already saying they'll vote for Jill Stein rather than go for Clinton... I think that's the product of privilege. There's too much at stake for blacks, Hispanics, women, LGBT, in 2016 for me not to go for Hillary.

We watched Obama vs. the obstructionists, and many Republicans that didn't obstruct lost their jobs to candidates who promised to obstruct. This will only get worse with Sanders. It's not that I'm scared by the right, its that I want government to function, and I don't sense Sanders has the nuance to make sure it does. I love him as a senator, not as a president.

If the cost of government functioning is compromising with the far right, is this really desirable? To me, that's the worst part of Obama's presidency. He compromised his ideals to make the wheels turn. I get that this is analogous to the Tea Party on the right, but it's damn disappointing to consider another 4-8 years of compromise just to eke out minor victories in the courts and through executive action.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

Isn't it 2 debates? One Michigan one Florida?

Your right, there is one march 6 and march 9.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I get why Rubio's not doing well. I don't get why Cruz and Trump are doing so well.

Racists, xenophobes and evangelicals. What's not to get?

 

[Good Job Bob]

And he's in an even worse position than she was then!

And at least Hillary had some big states to point to in order to fuel her delusion. Bernie doesn't even have that.

Neither was/is going to win, but Bernie at least has an actual message to get out there unlike Hillary in '08.

 

[Officerrob]

The people who are demanding that Bernie drop out today are the same people who said Bernie should drop out after Iowa.

Hillary didn't drop out in the 2008 primaries until June.

Stop it guys. You know what you're doing is wrong.

I'm not demanding he drop out, but he's quite a bit behind where Hillary was at this point

 

[GK86]

This was an entertaining night.

 

[Mr. RPG]

And he's in an even worse position than she was then!

And at least Hillary had some big states to point to in order to fuel her delusion. Bernie doesn't even have that.

Bernie is in this until the very end, just like Hillary was. That's my point.

 

[MThanded]

I agree with you. I think Bernie as a single issue candidate is great. When he veers from that issue, he gets muddy, and struggles to stay on-message. Clinton beats him here, there's no doubt.

But I think you'd agree with me that Sanders is 100x on social issues, particularly black issues, than any Republican left in the race? Even if he sounds preachy at times.

I'll show up and vote for Hillary, absolutely. I see white liberals in my circle already saying they'll vote for Jill Stein rather than go for Clinton... I think that's the product of privilege. There's too much at stake for blacks, Hispanics, women, LGBT, in 2016 for me not to go for Hillary.



If the cost of government functioning is compromising with the far right, is this really desirable? To me, that's the worst part of Obama's presidency. He compromised his ideals to make the wheels turn. I get that this is analogous to the Tea Party on the right, but it's damn disappointing to consider another 4-8 years of compromise just to eke out minor victories in the courts and through executive action.

Agreed. I'm ready to rally behind whoever becomes the nominee.

 

[Dicer]

Well, hrmmmm

 

[MThanded]

Trump takes vermont.

 

[eBay Huckster]

I assume Silver will update this at some point, but if you want to rank how Hilldawg and Bern After Reading did compared to how they needed to do you can.

Just eyeballing it, relative to the "projected split in a national tie" margins: slightly underperformed in VT (but it didn't matter), slightly underperformed in Minnesota, overperformed in Colorado and Oklahoma, underperformed somewhat in Massachusetts, and lmao the rest of it

 

[plagiarize]

Racists, xenophobes and evangelicals.

Basically, the GOP is addicting to smoking. The votes of the above groups are cigarettes. The GOP is going to struggle to quit them even though it's slowly killing them. Maybe they will, maybe they won't.

But if they want a chance of nominating someone right leaning and electable through the primary process... they've got to take the sort of positions that'll get those voting groups to go independent.

 

[Josh5890]

Trump wins Vermont.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

No one actually has said, but what does it mean that Bill broke the rules at the precinct? Like what could happen?

 

[plagiarize]

Well, hrmmmm

Remember when people thought Clinton won Ohio because of coin flips?

This is more of that.

 

[Kickz]

Did I miss all the Ricky Rubio jokes already?

I got one in a few pages ago.

 

[JVIDICAN]

Your right, there is one march 6 and march 9.

I'm just glad we get more debates between two reasonable candidates before the circus shows start in a few months.

 

[MThanded]

Well, hrmmmm

This is the new coin flip isn't it?

 

[danm999]

No one actually has said, but what does it mean that Bill broke the rules at the precinct? Like what could happen?

Jail cell next to Hillary.

 

[BlastProcessing]

Anything can happen

a viral debate moment, a "gaffe", some compelling new ad campaign

It's like in sports, right? We don't play the games on paper, otherwise the number 1 seed would always win. We make the teams go through to the end, even in a blow-out. And usually the result is expected, but every once in a while the Aaron Rodgers completes the Hail Mary.

Yes, but that Aaron Rodgers' Hail Mary means less if the Packers are down by 20.

 

[excelsiorlef]

Huh?? I don't get what you are getting at.

Yeah sorry I misred.

 

[maabus1999]

This is very true, and luckily he still has the money and one debate to make another pitch at Michigan, Ohio, MO and NC.

He got trashed in VA, so NC and MO are basically out for him as that is arguably worse in demographics for him.

And since he put a TON of money and resources into MA, a fairly white, liberal large state, and still lost, I think it is going to be tough to win OH or MI.

His best chance is a slight win in OH, imo. And a slight win means nothing when he needs to win by 20 points to turn this around.

 

[Steel]

No one actually has said, but what does it mean that Bill broke the rules at the precinct? Like what could happen?

Pretty sure someone pointed out earlier in the thread that those rules don't apply to primaries.

 

[SaviourMK2]

Ugh.. I need to sleep off this shitty day. Night all

 

[boiled goose]

No one actually has said, but what does it mean that Bill broke the rules at the precinct? Like what could happen?

He probably did break the rules.. but meh.

"cut it out" might be enough here lol.

 

[Bronx-Man]

Decent night, but not the night I was hoping for. If Rubio lost MN and Kaisch won VT, this would've been legendary. But now I think everyone's in until the 15th.

 

[Pineapple]

Here's what concerns me - the states that Hillary is running away with are states that are indisputably red in a general election.

In firmly blue states - Vermont, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Colorado - Bernie is winning big. Massachusetts is the exception, and even then it was very close.

 

[Meowster]

Well, hrmmmm

The newest conspiracy?

 

[Prodigal Son]

Ugh.. I need to sleep off this shitty day. Night all

Today is a good day for both sides, man (unless you're Rubio, Kasich or Carson, I guess).

But goodnight.

 

[Damaniel]

Well, hrmmmm

Oh Lord, it's back to the conspiracy theories again. I'm sure that the vote or two that might have theoretically flipped in that precinct would have given the state to Bernie for sure.

He lost. Get over it and concentrate on winning some states later this month.

Here's what concerns me - the states that Hillary is running away with are states that are indisputably red in a general election.

In firmly blue states - Vermont, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Colorado - Bernie is winning big. Massachusetts is the exception, and even then it was very close.

Any Democrat will win those states. Hillary is winning large swing states, which is far more important.

 

[plagiarize]

Pretty sure someone pointed out earlier in the thread that those rules don't apply to primaries.

That was my reading of the MGL in question. I'm not an expert though.