Tesseract
Banned
nope, war is cooler
Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)
- Thread starter B-Dubs
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nope, war is cooler
perfectchaos007
Member
Or they are just hoping Kasich gains enough momentum by the end of the campaign to keep Trump from getting the needed amount by the convention. If Kasich closes the gap enough, the GOP could rationalize nominating Kasich in a brokered convention by saying he has the most momentum leading up to the general election. And if enough suckers believe that bullshit, then maybe the GOP won't be destroyed after they give the nomination to a guy who doesn't have the most delegates.
brainchild
Banned
From the poligaf thread
It will be really interesting to see his predictions for the GOP candidates if his GOP model is stronger than the model for the dems!
brainchild said:
It will be really interesting to see his predictions for the GOP candidates if his GOP model is stronger than the model for the dems!
Ninja Scooter
Member
I think they are switching over to whoever has the best chance of winning that particular state. They will probably do the same thing for Rubio in Florida. They just want a contested convention.
Black Republican
Member
One more day till GOP/Dem party explodes
I mean if Kasich wins in Ohio, it's a dead heat there in the polls right now. I can imagine either getting it.
Macho Madness
Member
I tend to think Kasich will pick up most undecideds because he's quite popular in Ohio.
balladofwindfishes
Member
It's way too late for Kasich at this point. Even without Ohio, Trump is on a very clear and reasonable path to securing the nomination without needing any kind of brokered convention.
Can John win Kalifornia?
I don't know how much pull Arnold has there now, but John is his bro.
Now that be something. Arnold /Trump twitter war.
I'm pretty positive Kasich will win at this point. Drumpf has always underperformed his polls (relative to his opponents) in these situations, sometimes by a lot. I think Kasich will win by a few points. I don't think this will be a nail-biter.
Cruz was poling at +9 going into Texas and he won by +17. Kasich is up by +3 and I think he'll win by even more than that.
gutter_trash
Banned
I hope Trumps trounces Rubio in Florida.
destroy Marco's political future completely.
America does not need another neocon hopeful rising in the ranks.
bye bye Marco
destroy Marco's political future completely.
America does not need another neocon hopeful rising in the ranks.
bye bye Marco
I think he'll lay low for a while to see how the race shakes out. Kasich still hasn't won a state and his poll numbers have been so consistently low everywhere (except for moderate showings in Ohio and a few other states) that it seems unlikely to me that he will be viewed as a credible national candidate even if he wins Ohio tomorrow. I mean, Rubio will definitely still have a delegate lead on Kasich on Wednesday morning.
This is the real question. Assuming Rubio drops out, how much of his support goes to Cruz and how much goes to Kasich (assuming Drumpf gets very little). If most/all goes to Cruz, Cruz becomes the new dominant candidate in the race. If most/all goes to Kasich, we will have a true 3-way race. Presumably this favors Drumpf, but Cruz could still overtake Drumpf if Kasich wins a few big blue states. The major questions are: just how toxic is trump to the people who aren't already supporting him, and how high is Cruz's ceiling. Cruz is firmly in second, and Kasich is firmly in forth. I personally think it is unlikely that Kasich will ever raise much above his current standing. A win in Ohio will be a moral victory, but I just can't belive that he'll inherit much of Rubio's support given that Kasich is currently sitting at 12% nationally
Macho Madness
Member
Another neocon with neocon policies just in a better looking box to appeal to minorities.
Bye Little Marco, we hardly knew ya!
OpinionatedCyborg
Member
I wonder if Cruz will get over 50% of the vote and steal Utah. If he doesn't outright take Utah, will Trump reach the 15% threshold to receive delegates?
The 15% threshold only applies if there are 3 candidates that get more than 15% (to shut out those finishing after 3rd place).
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/UT-R
Trump hopes to prevent Cruz from getting 50%, but he won't need more than 15% to get delegates. This may still be hard, since it is a caucus, which already favors Cruz, but I think Cruz voters would be able to convince Kasich voters to jump to Cruz, especially since Romney told Utahns to abandon Kasich (I know it is a secret ballot, but I believe they still make little speeches beforehand).
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