Super Tuesday 4. I'm really feeling (The After Bern) March 22, 26 contests
- Thread starter NeoXChaos
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Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
Every time I feel a pang of guilt about not going to the Idaho Caucus tonight, I'm reminded that our 23 delegates aren't worth shit.
Black Republican
Member
Western Tuesday as CNN prefers
foxuzamaki
Doesn't read OPs, especially not his own
Xenoblade politics keeps expanding
They're worth 23 though.
googleplex
Member
Woke up at 6am in order to get my PSVR pre-order in and Vote before work this morning. I managed to accomplish both. Since there are apparently only 3 polling places for my area of Phoenix the line was absolutely ridiculously long at 8am.
But I got my Vote in for Hillary and still got to work on time.
But I got my Vote in for Hillary and still got to work on time.
User 463088
Banned
That's a pretty good assumption, ya. A slight Bernie win in Arizona is more damaging to him than a Bernie blowout is to Hillary.
http://demrace.com/
If anyone wants to play with delegate allocations, here's a site that makes it easy to do. It's still rough, but it's easier than the method I've been using.
Interestingly, Bernie can win every single state from now to the end by 20% (except Cali and NY where he can win by 15%) and Hillary will still have more pledged delegates.
StormBrute
Member
Gonna caucus for Hillary in Utah tonight. My first time being involved in the Presidential voting process.
I expect 10 people there altogether.
I expect 10 people there altogether.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
What average margin does Bernie Sanders need to win by for each state going forward again? Was it 12%?
I think Hillary is going to come out ahead tonight.
I think Hillary is going to come out ahead tonight.
Purple Cheeto
Member
This OP makes no sense. Can someone decipher it into normal people speak?
User 463088
Banned
Not too recent. The last AZ poll had Hillary up 50 to 24 with a large amount of undecideds. In Idaho, the most recent poll was at the end of Feb that had Bernie up 47/45. The most recent poll of Utah was a Bernie lead 52/44.
Conventional wisdom would tell us that Arizona should be a Hillary win, and the two caucus states should go to Bernie. He needs to win all three by close to 60% of the vote to still be (loosely) still in this thing. If he wins both caucuses, but loses AZ, because of how the delegates are allocated, Hillary will probably wipe out his gains or increase her lead.
Macho Madness
Member
It's more like 15%
superdeluxe
Member
trump was on cnn talking about bringing back water boarding
gutter_trash
Banned
My Predicktions
GOP
American Somoa Trump
Arizona Trump
Utah Cruz
Democrats
Arizona Clinton
Utah Sanders
Idaho Sanders
*Hillary will still net a bigger gain in total combined Delegates because Arizona is so much bigger LOL
GOP
American Somoa Trump
Arizona Trump
Utah Cruz
Democrats
Arizona Clinton
Utah Sanders
Idaho Sanders
*Hillary will still net a bigger gain in total combined Delegates because Arizona is so much bigger LOL
Could've swore 20% was the number being thrown around in the last thread. Well, this is it though, Bernie's true (last) last stand. Gonna be following this thread all night to see how it goes.
I don't understand the OP at all. =/ I feel out of the loop.
My predictions: Sanders will win Idaho and Utah by a large margin tonight. He'll either very narrowly win Arizona or very narrowly lose. Basically, the difference will be small.
Washington will overwhelmingly go Sanders. Hawaii...I'm torn on. Could see it going Clinton.
To answer the earlier question, Sanders needs 57% of all remaining delegates to lead Hillary in time for convention.
My predictions: Sanders will win Idaho and Utah by a large margin tonight. He'll either very narrowly win Arizona or very narrowly lose. Basically, the difference will be small.
Washington will overwhelmingly go Sanders. Hawaii...I'm torn on. Could see it going Clinton.
To answer the earlier question, Sanders needs 57% of all remaining delegates to lead Hillary in time for convention.
User 463088
Banned
He would need to win every single state and territory with 58-60% of the delegate allocation from here on out because of proportional representation. He cannot afford a single loss or a single close race from here on out.
eBay Huckster
Member
if sanders wins literally every remaining contest by an average of a 16% margin (58-42), he ultimately wins with a majority of 3
Let me sum up. Buttercup is marry Humperdinck in little less than half an hour. So all we have to do is get in, break up the wedding, steal the princess, make our escape... after we vote for Bernie.
superdeluxe
Member
I think both camps will be able to spin this.
Sanders we took more states
Clinton either gained more delegates or made delegate math more difficult for sanders
Sanders we took more states
Clinton either gained more delegates or made delegate math more difficult for sanders
eBay Huckster
Member
this is gonna be damn near certain from AZ's margin alone, especially if utah's margin is closer to 15% than 25%
superdeluxe
Member
Are we wish-casting? What aboutArizona shows a sanders win?
User 463088
Banned
Basically, Hillary has the ball, the two minute warning just happened, Bernie has no time outs left. Hillary just needs to run out the clock. Bernie is berning through money like crazy, and the upcoming media markets are going to be hellish for him.
Add to that most of the upcoming contests, specifically New York and Pennsylvania are closed primaries where the registration deadline is about to pass (before he opened his offices in the states) and his up hill climb is nearly impossible. Plus, in NY, independents who were already registered had to change their party affiliation by last October.
Add to that most of the upcoming contests, specifically New York and Pennsylvania are closed primaries where the registration deadline is about to pass (before he opened his offices in the states) and his up hill climb is nearly impossible. Plus, in NY, independents who were already registered had to change their party affiliation by last October.
teruterubozu
Member
My god it never ends. You have to be psychopath to run for president.
superdeluxe
Member
Clinton on CNN next, to talk about Brussels
User 463088
Banned
Some early voting numbers from Arizona on the Dem side.
There were 320,209 early votes cast.
60% came from women. 15% came from Latino voters.
18-24 year olds made up 4%
25-34 year olds made up 8%
35-44 year olds made up 9% .
45-54 year olds made up 12%
55-64 year olds made up 21%
65-74 year olds made up 25%
75+ made up 18%.
There were 320,209 early votes cast.
60% came from women. 15% came from Latino voters.
18-24 year olds made up 4%
25-34 year olds made up 8%
35-44 year olds made up 9% .
45-54 year olds made up 12%
55-64 year olds made up 21%
65-74 year olds made up 25%
75+ made up 18%.
Frozenprince
Banned
Find it funny that Somoa has 9 delegates when like, 500 people will vote.
User 463088
Banned
It's not strictly based on population, although that's part of it. States with similar electoral votes are not awarded the same delegate allocations.
Puerto Rico, for example, has 60 delegates, which, based on population, is pretty large.
That's really bad for Sanders. His strongest group was only 12%.
I expect it to be a wash for the primary day as a whole. Clinton gains in AZ are nullified by Sanders gains in UT and ID.
Way to make up for their lack of real rights in the U.S.
User 463088
Banned
It's definitely not good. I also read reports that Bernie's people have really only been in the ground for the last 10 days or so. What ground organization he had was very disorganized. Hillary's been there for months. Bernie's been throwing money at all three states. Problem is, that's not a substitute, as we saw when he outspent Hillary in all 5 of the states on last Tuesday and he lost every one of them.
If Hillary has a great night, she could probably net 5-6 delegates. If Bernie has a great night, he can keep it a wash, probably.
RPGCrazied
Member
I guess the news networks aren't going to cover this, cause of nonstop coverage of the terrorist attacks?
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
I don't see much change on the democratic side. I'm imagining it'll be a wash at the end of the day
Macho Madness
Member
They will likely alternate between the two stories.
RPGCrazied
Member
They haven't so far. Fox News, CNN and MSNBC has been terrorist attacks stuff. I was checking throughout the day, and its been this.
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
Probably because the polls haven't closed yet?
User 463088
Banned
Well, there are no exit polls because two are caucuses and AZ has some odd law that makes it harder, so there's nothing to cover yet.
MSNBC said that they would be doing a split screen of the election and the terror attack.
Macho Madness
Member
Until results come in there isn't really anything to talk about. No exit polls either.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
some time state has thing were u vote
pick person you lik
if like trump rite TRUMP
make america great again
today is 22 in march and some state like Utah and other one has thing were u vote
if u win vote u get points witch u need to win president
but even if win presidnet... you need 2 win new vote with only 2 ppl???? in novembe???
Just stuff like this. Only coming form a single statician though.
Being slightly more white, slightly less black, and on average much younger than other states. That bodes well for Sanders.
Latino community? Not so much. We'll see where their vote is tossed.
eBay Huckster
Member
is that tyler
User 463088
Banned
Tyler is not a statistician. He's a person who got very lucky with his projection in Michigan, and pretty much shit the bed after that.(and before that, to be honest). His model, from what he's released ,made no sense at all, and rests too heavily on things like Facebook likes and reTweets.
Some of what he's saying is factually inaccurate. Closed primaries hurt Bernie, not Hillary. Independents cannot vote in a closed primary. Arizona is also the 10th in the number of people over the age of 65. That age group heavily favors Hillary.
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