User 463088
Banned
No.
Maybe.
I'm wearing my I will do what Queens do shirt today. Since my Berniebro is home.
Super Tuesday 4. I'm really feeling (The After Bern) March 22, 26 contests
- Thread starter NeoXChaos
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Maybe.
I'm wearing my I will do what Queens do shirt today. Since my Berniebro is home.
ZeezbruhTV
Member
Why is there no voting holiday?? Whens a voting app going to come out?
Wafflecakes
Member
There should be a general election holiday.
Having a primary election holiday isn't really feasible.
Macho Madness
Member
People barely have faith in our election system as it is, I don't know if that would make it any better.
Black Republican
Member
CNN is all over the caucuses today, MSNBC still covering the Brussels attacks
As for Hawaii and Alaska, I expect Alaska to go Bernie by a lot. Probably 75%-25%, and Hawaii to go to Bernie, but by smaller margins, probably less than 60%. Hillary may even win, cause Hawaii loves Obama, and Hillary is the person to elect if you want to continue Obama's policies.
Hard to tell though, as I'm basing all my predictions off of 0 polls, just previous elections and demographics.
Hard to tell though, as I'm basing all my predictions off of 0 polls, just previous elections and demographics.
Well, it's not a deliberate misquote. You don't have to assume malice! I forgot that there's a separate bit about Presidential elections.
I still generally think that this is not super settled law and I'd like to see the federal government make a more expansive attempt to regulate elections and force early voting, etc. Sure, states could split the Presidential from the Congressional elections, but that sounds like a logistical nightmare and I doubt most would do so.
But certainly it is not definitively Congressional power because the states do have the opportunity to push back if they felt it worthwhile.
eBay Huckster
Member
I'm pegging Alaska as 80-20 and Washington as 65-35. Hawaii's gonna be the wild card, but it's also not gonna be more than about 3 net delegates either way.
(Actually, none of this really matters, because he needs to overperform by a lot in Washington and win by double digits in Wisconsin to make the margins interesting.)
Wafflecakes
Member
The thing is, I doubt the SCOTUS would even allow congress to try. My hypothetical is based on a plain text reading of the constitution, but it probably wouldn't even be necessary for the states to hold a separate election.
The precedent on managing elections is heavily in favor of states. It was definitely the intention of the founders that the states have most of the control over elections. Whether we think that was a good idea or not now isn't really relevant.
At this point in time I expect Hillary to win Wisconsin. The polls are showing her up by six as recently as the 22nd. It may end up a wash, but Sanders needs more than that there.
Glad you enjoyed yourself, I hope the vocal minority people keep talking about on this forum wasn't pronounced.
Christberg
Member
Tried to caucus this morning and failed. Website refused to give me an address and when I finally figured it out via Twitter they were already done. On the upside, my district was 75-25 Bernie.
So polarizing the difference between some states
Black Republican
Member
Might as well call it. Ginna be a Nice delegate pickup for bernie
DR2K
Banned
Yeah mostly white states vote Bernie.
Bernie doing better than expected. If it holds it will be a good night for him.
I haven't been alive to see too many primaries, but this is the one I saw that was most divided among racial and ethnic lines. It's kind of crazy that Hillary can sweep the south with 70-80% margins, yet Bernie crush the Northwest just as much. Obviously this has a lot to do with the white population in those states, vs the higher minority turnout go heavily Clinton.
It reveals Sanders greatest weakness: little to no minority support. Unless Sanders swept the white vote with insane margins (much higher than he is now), he was doomed from the start. Africans Americans and Latinos are important in a presidential election, but they are paramount in the democtatic primary, and Sanders hasn't shown success to any degree courting these groups.
Macho Madness
Member
Well that's also just a few rural counties showing. If Hillary was going to bring down the margins at all, it's going to be done in King county.
But overall yes he'll win Washington easily.
But overall yes he'll win Washington easily.
GrooveCommand
Member
Just got back from the caucus in Seattle. In my precinct, here were the results:
Out of 77 Voters, here's how the Votes were allocated:
Code:
Bernie: [SPOILER]58 (75.64%) | 5 Delegates[/SPOILER]
Hillary: [SPOILER]19 (24.35%) | 1 Delagate[/SPOILER]I love where I live. The discourse was very similar to what I've seen on NeoGAF. The speaker for Bernie was very concise and made some good points that related to everyone. The speaker for Hillary rambled on about how great she is for children and education and feminism, kind of biased it seemed like. After we tallied the vote and it was clear that a majority in favor of Bernie was reached,
Given the results of my precinct, it's surprising to see so many people saying that Bernie doesn't have a chance when it's clear that very many people are in support of him.
Also this. Seattle loves Bernie but it also is urban which favors Clinton, and higher percentage of minorities which also matters for Clinton.
Does anyone know how Clinton or Sanders does amongst Asian citizens/Asian Americans? I've never heard it discussed too much, but it's an important demographic on the West coast.
Macho Madness
Member
Aaron Strife
Banned
JHoNNy1OoO
Member
Current estimates are anywhere from 50-70. All depends on how well Hillary does in Washington.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Generally they say that because he's losing big in both delegates and popular vote.
Hillary ran both up to a huge degree in southern states where Bernie barely made a blip.
Not having a chance, doesn't mean he doesn't have support. His problem has been throughout this season, that he doesn't have very diverse support.
superdeluxe
Member
washington is going to be Sanders signature win in regards to delegates
legacyzero
Banned
Hoping for a huge upset in Wisconsin. Gooooo Bernie!
Leona Lewis
Banned
or you get eliminated
balladofwindfishes
Member
Because he needs the results he's seeing today (or better) in every single state going forward, including several that are very much in Hillary's favor. If he stumbles at all in any state going forward he can't win. And "stumble" doesn't even mean lose the state. If he ties or only wins by <20%, it's the same as losing for him.
If he ends up getting the nomination, it'll be a historical catch up in terms of delegates. It'll also mean that the wave election he needs to be effective is within reach, as he'd show he could get 60-70% of the votes in states he was at a disadvantage in (like New York).
Macho Madness
Member
Alaska called by AP.
Washington, I'd guess they're waiting until King comes in.
Washington, I'd guess they're waiting until King comes in.
I'm interested in learning why minorities favor Clinton over Sanders. I speak as a minority too. Asian here.
I would've thought minorities would favor the more openly socialist candidate who advocates a higher level of safety net. Or is Clinton favored because she is perceived as a stronger candidate against the minority-hating Trump?
I would've thought minorities would favor the more openly socialist candidate who advocates a higher level of safety net. Or is Clinton favored because she is perceived as a stronger candidate against the minority-hating Trump?
But she's not.
loki 16
Member
Good!In my little North Seattle precinct the breakdown was:
Clinton: 3
Sanders: 19
With all 3 delegates going to Sanders! BOOM #feelthebern
Because until recently Sander's answer for everything was "Wallstreet bad". While Clinton spoke on issues that effect minorities, built relationships and support in the communities and really put boots on the ground.
While Sanders said he would "Look into the Flint situation", Hillery sent money and support to help out.
Sanders skipped over most of the states with a large AA population and didn't even run ads.
teruterubozu
Member
Which is why Hawaii should be interesting. Honolulu is something like 60% Asian.
Macho Madness
Member
I think they're waiting on more of King county (Seattle) to come in. Only one precinct has reported and it was a tie. Once that comes in, then they'll call it.
I'd guess King county could make it possible (though highly unlikely) that she pulls out an upset.
There's also no exit polls, which makes calling things like this difficult. They're waiting on raw numbers.
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