shit look on gaf. I am almost in disbelief about how bernie fans have constantly perpetuated an objectively false narrative. It has been incredibly disappointing to see it so pronounced on gaf.
April U.S. Primaries |OT| Vote in 20 Turns for World Leader
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shit look on gaf. I am almost in disbelief about how bernie fans have constantly perpetuated an objectively false narrative. It has been incredibly disappointing to see it so pronounced on gaf.
eBay Huckster
Member
You're adorable.
At this point there's all the empirical evidence in the world you could cite about the impact of FTAs being mixed or worse (including this 2001 paper by Rodriguez and Rodrik which critiques then-existing attempts at modeling the effects of "free trade" policy, or even the Autor paper from just two months ago evaluating the actual effects of PNTR with China on the US manufacturing sector).
Like, you could make a case for economic nationalism here, that any further FTAs are bad because any further manufacturing job losses are bad. (You'd ultimately be partly wrong because of automation, but at least it's a well-meaning kind of partly wrong.)
Instead you not only type that sentence unironically, but you also decide that it needs nothing to empirically back it up?
Battersea Power Station
Member
That's true. GAF is one of the worst cases when it comes to spreading Bernie's lies and unfairly slming Hillary.
Seriously. Is that guy in middle school?
eBay Huckster
Member
eh. i was thinking more "you sound exactly like half of my socialist friends who never feel the need to cite anything, but always feel the need to go on some sanctimonious diatribe about how everything that isn't protectionism and nationalization is being done to enrich the 0.1%"
(if that's about me, that post has since lost 80% of its condescension jobs to china)
balladofwindfishes
Member
I had a nice conversation with my sister today about Bernie and Hillary. She's a Bernie supporter and I'm a Hillary supporter, but it wasn't really any sort of heated discussion. We both had the same general concept, both believed that both candidates were pretty much 90% the same, and it was only the specifics. She didn't believe Hillary was a demon, evil incarnate who would sell the country to the highest bidder. She just believed she seemed kind of phony sometimes. And I agreed with that, but expressed my concerns about Bernie and some of his policies actually being workable, and she more or less agreed she didn't really know the specifics of Bernie's plans, she just thought he seemed honest and his general ideas were good. We both agreed that his hard core supporters are annoying and doing more harm than good and need to go away.
What I kind of found interesting is I know my sister is actually (slightly) more conservative than me on certain issues, but ended up going with Bernie.
It was nice to talk with someone who wasn't going to accuse me of being a corporate shill or a Republican or anything like that for supporting Hillary. Someone who understands you can agree 100% with Bernie on his ideas, but find faults in him that make it hard for you to vote for him.
Then we laughed about Trump and the GOP, because this whole conversation started because she complained her work dinner the night before was kind of lame because a Trump supporter made the whole thing terrible by arguing with everyone.
What I also noticed was that Bernie's supporters making a huge deal of every tiny thing about Hillary was having the opposite effect. It made it so my sister just tuned out everything negative about Hillary because there was so much garbage to sort through, it was nearly impossible to actually find legitimate stories versus junk filler tabloid nonsense. Which is something I had realized awhile ago. In their thirst to bring down the she-devil, they ended up crying wolf too many times and now people just tune out when some story comes out against Hillary, whether it's legit or not. So nice going there, Bernie fans.
It's too bad she missed the deadline to register to vote. She really wanted to, but isn't savvy on when primaries happen and stuff. She's voting for whoever is the Democrat nominee come November though, despite both of us being in NY and it not mattering at all.
What I kind of found interesting is I know my sister is actually (slightly) more conservative than me on certain issues, but ended up going with Bernie.
It was nice to talk with someone who wasn't going to accuse me of being a corporate shill or a Republican or anything like that for supporting Hillary. Someone who understands you can agree 100% with Bernie on his ideas, but find faults in him that make it hard for you to vote for him.
Then we laughed about Trump and the GOP, because this whole conversation started because she complained her work dinner the night before was kind of lame because a Trump supporter made the whole thing terrible by arguing with everyone.
What I also noticed was that Bernie's supporters making a huge deal of every tiny thing about Hillary was having the opposite effect. It made it so my sister just tuned out everything negative about Hillary because there was so much garbage to sort through, it was nearly impossible to actually find legitimate stories versus junk filler tabloid nonsense. Which is something I had realized awhile ago. In their thirst to bring down the she-devil, they ended up crying wolf too many times and now people just tune out when some story comes out against Hillary, whether it's legit or not. So nice going there, Bernie fans.
It's too bad she missed the deadline to register to vote. She really wanted to, but isn't savvy on when primaries happen and stuff. She's voting for whoever is the Democrat nominee come November though, despite both of us being in NY and it not mattering at all.
Hillary is going to need a mandate and your vote no matter safe or swing needs to be counted.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Not really sure what two votes in a safe Democrat district in a safe Democrat state will really do to help Hillary get a mandate. I honestly can't even think of any local races that aren't Democrats.
He should have just apologized for trying to quote Hillary as saying something she didn't say. Own up to his error, and move on. Not try to clean it up and back peddle and just make it worse...
Unknown Soldier
Member
Well, I've never once said that I'm opposed to trade but the Hillary supporters here are too busy flinging personal insults to notice. But the free trade agreements as they are written are blatantly about increasing the power of corporations. TPP is an especially hilarious and egregious example of this.
Since you can't pass just the "good policy" of these trade agreements, which is of course intentional like anything else in politics, separate from the "bad policy" you have to oppose the entire agreement and send the corporations back to the drawing board. But I suppose accepting slow erosion of human rights is what someone who understands nuance is supposed to do, instead of offering resistance to things like TPP.
Districting is largely done with respect to voter numbers for starters. You showing up and voting makes accurate districting more of a reality.
This is less important in New York as the jerrymandering isn't in full insanity mode there, but often people say "I live in X hard red state, no point in me voting" not realizing that by voting they're making the GOP factor them into district designs, weakening their ability to effectively jerrymander.
The popular vote also might not decide the actual winner, but it does help push the mandate narrative that is important for any POTUS, but will likely be especially important for Clinton as she:
1. isn't going to experience the shellshock most new Presidents experience upon taking office.
2. isn't likely to completely reset the current WH staffing/leadership out of the gate.
With a strong mandate she could legitimately hit the ground running with serious momentum while (ideally) the GOP is reeling from losing the Senate and losing ground in the House.
Also, you never know how down-ballot props and elections might turnout without strong turnout, and then there is the matter of taking pride in your state having stronger than the national average turnout if possible.
Free trade deals aren't inherently bad, but the way the US handles them generally is. It tends to disproportionately impact lower and middle class workers, since we have a shoddy safety net to begin with and provide minimal assistance in terms of preparing domestic workers for the new competitive landscape.
Bernie simplifies that argument, while Clinton largely ignores it (and the earlier comment about TPP and ER position is spot on), but there's a growing body of research pushing back on the basic platitudes that free trade and open markets are inherently good that we've been shoveled for the last few decades. They can be if you're in the professional class, work in an export oriented industry, and/or you just like cheaply sourced goods regardless of the broader impacts they may have.
Bernie simplifies that argument, while Clinton largely ignores it (and the earlier comment about TPP and ER position is spot on), but there's a growing body of research pushing back on the basic platitudes that free trade and open markets are inherently good that we've been shoveled for the last few decades. They can be if you're in the professional class, work in an export oriented industry, and/or you just like cheaply sourced goods regardless of the broader impacts they may have.
Smiles and Cries
Member
never voted in a primary what should I expect?
CT
CT
Wyoming Democratic caucus is tomorrow. I hope WyomingGAF is ready (if you're a Dem voter; if not, the Republican race in Wyoming has already passed).
Luckily, there are no downticket races attached.
Mind you, there is a dude called ROCKY DE LA FUENTE running for president in Wyoming.
From the Wyoming Tribune Eagle:
Luckily, there are no downticket races attached.
Mind you, there is a dude called ROCKY DE LA FUENTE running for president in Wyoming.
From the Wyoming Tribune Eagle:
Connecticut isn't due to vote until April 26.
For pretty much all of the information you need, you can probably check out this website.
Things you might want to check are your party registration (CT is a closed primary, which means only Dems can vote in Dem primary, etc.), and registration deadlines. You might also have to check if you are required to carry photo ID.
Smiles and Cries
Member
Are you sure? (About the states I mean) http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-presidential-primary-schedule-calendar/
Will put WV as 50/50. Really hope she does clinch it tho, it'll be a 5 week gap between him winning any states that way (Wyoming to Oregon).
Wag
Member
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/ted-cruz-new-york-matzoh-bakery-221702
Loved this first comment on Politico story about Ted Cruz visiting Jewish Bakery in Brooklyn. 😂
I'm a Clinton supporter and I haven't insulted you. I have rebutted the nonsense you posted about what she supposedly said (which you didn't respond to). I'm not too well versed on the trade deals and I wasn't talking about that when you quoted me. I'm not for any erosion of human rights so maybe you could have a conversation without implying that those disagreeing with you are monstrous? Or is that the MO for all Bernie supporters now? You weren't being truthful when you posted that Clinton called Sanders unqualified, address that and I'll get into specifics on trade agreements with you.
eBay Huckster
Member
oh give me a goddamn break
asking you to provide specific empirical examples supporting your position (which I instead literally did for you) is not "a personal attack", nor is saying that you sound like people who wax poetic about issues and then can't back anything up
Matt_
World's #1 One Direction Fan: Everyone else in the room can see it, everyone else but you~~~
So if Hillary wins New York do people think Sanders will drop out?
I know everyone thought he would drop out after super tuesday 1 (and 2 and 3) but the strategy has turned to winning New York and Cali by decent margins and using those wins to flip superdelegates, but if New York doesn't come through for him is there even a message they can put out?
Do any Sanders supporters in here think that he should stay in/want him to if he does lose?
good grief he did not hold back. Calling sanders a gun lover is pretty ridiculous
Sanders should just apologise and then everyone can move on
I know everyone thought he would drop out after super tuesday 1 (and 2 and 3) but the strategy has turned to winning New York and Cali by decent margins and using those wins to flip superdelegates, but if New York doesn't come through for him is there even a message they can put out?
Do any Sanders supporters in here think that he should stay in/want him to if he does lose?
good grief he did not hold back. Calling sanders a gun lover is pretty ridiculous
Sanders should just apologise and then everyone can move on
legacyzero
Banned
If he loses NY, especially by a lot, I dont see too many options left for him other than being on the indie ticket, etc.
He really needs a substantial win. Political Revolution: ENGAGE!
And What does Bernie need to apologize for??
LMFAOOOO
eBay Huckster
Member
not a sanders supporter, but i don't think he'd even consider dropping out outright after NY unless the margin's randomly like that absurd emerson poll
he might start fixating on the GOP candidate(s), though
he might start fixating on the GOP candidate(s), though
Macho Madness
Member
They've been planning on losing New York for a while so unless the margins are insane, no.
Even if the margins are insane, no.
This is going on until at least California and likely until after all states have voted.
Even if the margins are insane, no.
This is going on until at least California and likely until after all states have voted.
Unknown Soldier
Member
I was actually responding to the 'is he in middle school' guy, not you with that statement.
Pretty sure the "is he in middle school" guy is a bernie supporter. Like:
Hmm... interesting.
I'm completely the opposite when it comes to the articulating. I'm always certain about what Sanders is saying, and I can follow it clearly -- and I assume his colleagues can, too -- while Clinton tends to speak in clichés that lose meaning. The whole "reset button" with Russia is an example of that, and how her well-intentioned words don't add up to clear policy.
But perhaps the most important issue to me is Sanders' willingness to listen to groups like BLM and form the most comprehensive social justice platform out of all the candidates. The current status of American blacks is indefensible, and I think those racial issues are going to become more and more important in the very near future, as the number of people willing to speak up reaches critical mass. It will take a leader willing to acknowledge the outrage to do something about it, and I think Sanders is the one to do that.
I kinda feel the same way (as you) about her being the first female President. It'd be a nice follow-up to electing Obama (and I have a young daughter, so it'd be great for her to see an accomplished woman of high rank that earned it), but that's kind of a selfish desire for me, so it's not going to overshadow the other issues
Is just on the last page.
It'll likely be around a 20-point margin, given that's where all the polling is.
Unknown Soldier
Member
I have nothing further to say about what she supposedly said as I saw the video too now. Both Hillary and Bernie are walking it back today so I guess everyone's pals again.
I also wasn't speaking to you either, but there is an ongoing narrative where Bernie supporters are being dismissed out of hand with a constant stream of insults and accusations of sexism, racism, ignorance, and some aspect of privilege. Again, I wasn't accusing you of anything specifically and please don't take it that way.
Square2015
Member
How did Bernie do in the debate last night?
Were the Panama papers mentioned?
Are his chances going to improve going into NY?
Were the Panama papers mentioned?
Are his chances going to improve going into NY?
ShadowKingpin
Member
What debate? That isn't until the 14th.
When he loses NY, get your head out of the clouds dude. You want him to run indie, do you want a republican president? If he does run independantly he'll show himself up to be a selfish, awful man who only cares about his ambitions of being POTUS.
He needs several substantial wins that are beyond the realm of believeability.
Edit - Good to see the latest poll in NY has her up 20 points.
legacyzero
Banned
You're persistent. I get that. But no thanks. If you're not willing to discuss without movement, then neither am I. My comment was realistic, and even admiting that Bernie has a rough chance. But it's a chance none-the-less. But now you're just trying to get a rise out of me.
Colonel Mustard
Banned
That's not happening. people here hate her more than we hate environment-destroying coal barons.
Snowman Prophet of Doom
Member
Bernie has zero chance in NY unless it's discovered he was controlling every 9/11 first responder via astral projection. Let's be real. New Yorkers LIKED Hillary as a Senator, and a state with so much of its economy tied up in Wall Street is not going to flip for the guy advocating for the (imo morally and politically on-point, but nevertheless fringe) position of tearing corporations and big banks a new one. Sorry, but them's the brakes. Bernie is an awesome personality, and a good man, a rare island of relative integrity and consistency in a Washington dominated by political weather vanes, but he ran a bad campaign and is WAY too fringe, in ways good and bad, to have any shot on the national political stage.
Wow, thanks for the link, I haven't heard much about WV but definitely seems like Bernie has it on lock. Weird that it'll be surrounded by a sea of Hillary states.
Movement? Well you never come with any sort of rational argument soo ....
balladofwindfishes
Member
I was visiting my grandparents today and they had the news on in the background. My grandma was talking about how she hopes Hillary wins, because there's nobody else. I mentioned Bernie, and she thought he was too old to president. Which I guess makes sense considering he's older than she is.
Also the news didn't sound optimistic about Bernie. But then again, Hillary was visiting Rochester today, so the news thought she was the best person ever. For some reason everyone is visiting Rochester this week, don't know why. Bill came yesterday. Hillary was here today. Kasich is coming tomorrow, the Don is around Sunday, and Bernie is heading around some time next week. I guess Monroe county is important or something. Cruz won't dare step foot in New York State, though.
I was also the only one between my Grandparents and Siblings who knew who John Kasich was. I thought that was kind of funny. Poor guy.
I don't think this can be repeated enough. We downright loved her.
Also the news didn't sound optimistic about Bernie. But then again, Hillary was visiting Rochester today, so the news thought she was the best person ever. For some reason everyone is visiting Rochester this week, don't know why. Bill came yesterday. Hillary was here today. Kasich is coming tomorrow, the Don is around Sunday, and Bernie is heading around some time next week. I guess Monroe county is important or something. Cruz won't dare step foot in New York State, though.
I was also the only one between my Grandparents and Siblings who knew who John Kasich was. I thought that was kind of funny. Poor guy.
I don't think this can be repeated enough. We downright loved her.
Cruz seems to be absolutely loathed everywhere in New York? Why do the polls have him at 20%? Sounds like he'll be lucky to scrap double digits ... I can't wait to see him start flatlining when the NE states come about.
Yeah I know why he's hated, just not sure why he's polling higher than he should be.
StopMakingSense
Member
He decried "New York values" at one of the debates.
And it's just a poor spot for him demographically.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Absolute, pure seething hatred for the man. I'm not even from the area of New York he was insulting and I was insulted.
I don't think there are a lot of Republicans in New York to actually poll. Cruz's remarks even have some of my extended family who are hard core religious conservatives, his core audience, just not even want to vote for anyone anymore. I realize NY is solid blue, but you don't go and insult an entire state like that. Not when the people you mean to insult make up a minor blip in the total population of a huge state with many different areas that are nearly unrecognizable as being in the same state. I'd like to hear what "New York Values" logging folks in the Adirondacks have. Or engineers in western New York. Or farmers in the south. To think we're all cut throat, rich stock brokers or property tycoons is awful for someone who wants to run the entire country. Pro-tip: New York makes up a rather large percentage of the country you want to rule.
You quoted me last page, so yeah you were
I prefer Sanders, but I think Clinton will be alright too. I have no problem with Sanders staying in as long as he likes (well, any further than mathematical elimination would be dumb). The Republican race is going to their convention for sure, so it's not like this is putting us in any kind of disadvantage. Especially when Sanders is guaranteed to support Clinton when she likely wins.
Unless the Republicans pull off some kind of miracle and get Trump/Cruz to support a non-Trump/Cruz candidate, this election should be one of the easiest wins in a long time. There's really no reason to panic about solidifying the party early at this point.
Unless the Republicans pull off some kind of miracle and get Trump/Cruz to support a non-Trump/Cruz candidate, this election should be one of the easiest wins in a long time. There's really no reason to panic about solidifying the party early at this point.
It's already a pipe dream for him to get the nom, more so when he loses NY. But ... a part of me hopes he does stay in till the bitter end, just purely for the entertainment factor. This primary would have been really boring with no real challenger for Hillary afterall.
Imagine if Trump runs independently! So many red states going blue! I'm told nobody would vote for Trump tho, because when it comes down to it people are loyal to their party .. but most Trump supporters are anti establishment .. I can't see them turning around so easily and pledging allegiance to the GOP ... especially after pulling the rug out from under their new idols feet. No, I think he'd do on par, maybe slightly worse than Cruz, but the split vote will mean Hillary steals so many red states.
I also think Trump is a man that doesn't mind watching the world burn, and would happily hand the GE to Hillary to spite the GOP/Cruz.
legacyzero
Banned
You've already proven that you're beyond rational talk. I've made my case, and you keep jumpin in with the "NUH-UH!". So Im done with ya.
All the rational I need is what I see in Hillary as a liar, expedient flopper, and big money caterer.
What I also aw on GAF about a year ago is " He'll be the first to drop", "No chance", " blah blah blah".
Yet, here we are.
/shrug.
I appreciate your passion, tho.
I use data, facts and figures for my arguments, all entirely rational. All I see from you is "wait and see". I mean I am talking about who is likely to win, not who you should vote for, why are you talking about Hillary in that regard? It's irrelvant to the topic.
And yes, it's still at "No chance". Nobody who actually looks at the state of play right now unbiasedly, genuinely thinks Bernie has a realistic path to victory. It's based on crazy crazy happenings.
Unknown Soldier
Member
But I already answered you directly since then.
I'm more than happy to talk with you about the trade deals, btw. I made a thread about TPP awhile back, when the full text was first released. Feel free to browse through it.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1135919
Not much has changed since this thread. One scenario is that TPP will be voted on this summer, which seems increasingly unlikely as Hillary switched to opposing it and both Bernie and Trump have always opposed it. Obama doesn't want it to be an active issue during the campaign since his most likely successors have all come out against it.
The other scenario is that it will be voted on during the lame-duck session after the elections. This is the more likely one, as Obama can get it done before he leaves office and he won't be subject to opposition by his own party or his successor during an a Presidential campaign. He's pretty hellbent on passing this trade deal, even going against his own party and all the surviving Presidential candidates except Zodiac, I mean Ted Cruz.
legacyzero
Banned
Ive dropped plenty of links, and all I got was snark from Hillary suppporters. "LOL you use YouTube for research!" and "But the Super Delegates!"
And that same "data" and "facts" etc is what people tried to use to write Bernie off last year.
And yeah, this whole thing about Hillary is 100% releveant. You wanna debate her chances , but when are start talking about her questionable integrity, i get "Its not relevant!" It's a goddamn election, and people need to know who they are voting for.
I supported Hillary in 2015. That is until I did my homework and found out who she and ger husband are. And they CONTINUE to show it even this week.
But if people know all that and still support her regardless? I have no words.
Again, I appreciate your passion. Peace.
I've not seen any relevant links from you suggesting Bernie is going to get enough delegates? Those people last year will turn out to be right 0_o, he won't get the nom, and it won't even be close.
How is your opinion on her relevant to the overwhelming and frankly, easy to predict upcoming results? I don't care for your opinion on Hillary, just like you don't care for mine on Bernie, that isn't the discussion being had and it is not relevant when talking about how the next 21 states will go and who will get the nom.
All I see from people who think Bernie stands a chance are cardboard thin theories or just complete silence or cop out answers like "Wait and see".
And it makes all the chatter about Bernie being amazing and Clinton evil entirely pointless now, because it'll all be forgotton in less than two and a half months when he's rallying for her looking like an entirely pointless hypocrit.
Edit - FYI, I've never had to use super delegates for my arguments on how Hillary will get the nom, she will decimate him in pledge delegates alone.
legacyzero
Banned
Momentum bruh. That's it. That's all I see, and that's all I need. Bernie wasn't supposed to win Michigan. He wasn't supposed to win Wisconsin. He's not supposed to win New York. He's going to win in PA.
Momentum.
Also, as somebody who has volunteered for his campaign here in Wisconsin (La Crosse rally) i see a lot of people working hard to make it happen. It aint all "Bernie bros" It's people who know who the better, more honest campaign is.
I keep hearing "Facts" and then I keep seeing something different. So. I'll indulge you in saying-
Wait and see.
Momentum.
Also, as somebody who has volunteered for his campaign here in Wisconsin (La Crosse rally) i see a lot of people working hard to make it happen. It aint all "Bernie bros" It's people who know who the better, more honest campaign is.
I keep hearing "Facts" and then I keep seeing something different. So. I'll indulge you in saying-
Wait and see.
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