April U.S. Primaries |OT| Vote in 20 Turns for World Leader

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legacyzero said:
Momentum bruh. That's it. That's all I see, and that's all I need. Bernie wasn't supposed to win Michigan. He wasn't supposed to win Wisconsin. He's not supposed to win New York. He's going to win in PA.

Momentum.

Also, as somebody who has volunteered for his campaign here in Wisconsin (La Crosse rally) i see a lot of people working hard to make it happen. It aint all "Bernie bros" It's people who know who the better, more honest campaign is.

I keep hearing "Facts" and then I keep seeing something different. So. I'll indulge you in saying-

Wait and see.
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Jesus, momentum ... that doesn't exist. He won those states based on demographics not momentum. He was polled ahead in Wisconsin plenty of times, Michigan polling is weak and he won it by a meaningless whisker.

You don't just have to think he will win New York, and Penn, but win them by HUGE margins. Something he simply has not done in primaries so far. His biggest notable win outside of Vermont is Wisconsin at 15%. Yet .. despite that, (again, being in a demographically better area that suits him) despite all the polling suggesting otherwise, you think he can get do 20+ wins in states Hillary is polling to win. (because for the one time you say it's wrong, you ignore the countless times it's been right and even underestimated Hillary. You shout MICHIGAN. I shout OHIO, VIRGINIA. (Go on, look up the polls on 358).)

Your arguments are so flimsy and based on no rationality and no regard for anything that's happened this election so far.

The facts I've laid out are just that, so no you're not seeing differently, you're seeing what you want to see.

Edit - I keep asking Bernie fans to fill this in and post it but they don't (Wonder why) - http://demrace.com/?

Go on, indulge me.
 
legacyzero said:
Momentum bruh. That's it. That's all I see, and that's all I need. Bernie wasn't supposed to win Michigan. He wasn't supposed to win Wisconsin. He's not supposed to win New York. He's going to win in PA.

Momentum.

Also, as somebody who has volunteered for his campaign here in Wisconsin (La Crosse rally) i see a lot of people working hard to make it happen. It aint all "Bernie bros" It's people who know who the better, more honest campaign is.

I keep hearing "Facts" and then I keep seeing something different. So. I'll indulge you in saying-

Wait and see.

qqqa2pbspsvh.gif
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Look back at the results of 2008 primaries and let us know about momentum. Hillary cleaned up at the end, including winning Pennsylvania. She still lost. Math matters, not momentum.
 
For the BS about "not suppose to win Wisconsin"

Check out the polling - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/wisconsin-democratic/

From Jan to April 3rd he was ahead in 6 polls, vs Hillarys 4. And by bigger numbers.

Michigan is literally the only polling error so far this election to stand out, it was widley publicised and whether you agree it was down to poor polling methods or not, it's clearly been an anomoly.

Every other state that Hillary has been ahead in the polls, she's won.
 
Miles X said:
Aha, just proving me right buddy. Ya'll running from the truth.

I can't wait for the NY Primary ^^
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I already told you how he can win. It isn't just about putting numbers into a calculator. What states he needs to win and by what margins isn't very important right now until we see how well he does in New York. I'm not going to make a prediction on the outcome of any upcoming state when the race could be very different depending on the results from New York. I'm focused on the New York primary. I think it is the most important state for Bernie up to this point in the race. This is his chance to prove that he has momentum.

Bernie will undoubtedly win tomorrow's caucus by an enormous margin. I'm guessing 75-25. New York is a different matter. Hillary currently has a good lead there according to the polls. However, Bernie is now leading Hillary in national polls and closing his margins in the upcoming states to about single-digit margins. He's gaining support. It is undeniable.

For Bernie, winning New York would be his biggest win yet by far and an enormous turning point in the race. It is one of the most delegate-rich states in this election and Bernie has huge support there. I think winning New York is paramount, but his campaign doesn't seem to think it is a must win. I'm not sure if I agree with his campaign on that. I suppose it depends on the margin of victory.

I don't think Bernie is trying to win New York for delegates, but to uphold his winning streak and challenge Hillary's front runner status in her adopted home state. A win in New York for Bernie, if he wins at all, will be by a small margin and he'll end up only netting a few delegates. However, he will be able to uphold both an enormous winning streak and the notion that he has the momentum to win the election.

What is going to hurt Bernie the most in the New York primary and the rest of the northeastern state primaries is the fact that they're all closed primaries with the exception of Rhode Island. Many of Bernie's votes come from independents. Unfortunately, the deadline for voters in most of those states to switch their party affiliation ended months ago and the deadline to register to vote has already ended in a few of those states.

If Bernie loses New York, it will be mostly likely because it is a closed primary. If New York was an open primary, I think he would win.

If he wins New York or at least keeps his loss close, I believe he can still move on and win.
 
Mr. RPG said:
I already told you how he can win. It isn't just about putting numbers into a calculator. What states he needs to win and by what margins isn't very important right now until we see how well he does in New York. I'm not going to make a prediction on the outcome of any upcoming state when the race could be very different depending on the results from New York. I'm focused on the New York primary. I think it is the most important state for Bernie up to this point in the race. This is his chance to prove that he has momentum.

Bernie will undoubtedly win tomorrow's caucus by an enormous margin. I'm guessing 75-25. New York is a different matter. Hillary currently has a good lead there according to the polls. However, Bernie is now leading Hillary in national polls and closing his margins in the upcoming states to about single-digit margins. He's gaining support. It is undeniable.

For Bernie, winning New York would be his biggest win yet by far and an enormous turning point in the race. It is one of the most delegate-rich states in this election and Bernie has huge support there. I think winning New York is paramount, but his campaign doesn't seem to think it is a must win. I'm not sure if I agree with his campaign on that. I suppose it depends on the margin of victory.

I don't think Bernie is trying to win New York for delegates, but to uphold his winning streak and challenge Hillary's front runner status in her adopted home state. A win in New York for Bernie, if he wins at all, will be by a small margin and he'll end up only netting a few delegates. However, he will be able to uphold both an enormous winning streak and the notion that he has the momentum to win the election.

What is going to hurt Bernie the most in the New York primary and the rest of the northeastern state primaries is the fact that they're all closed primaries with the exception of Rhode Island. Many of Bernie's votes come from independents. Unfortunately, the deadline for voters in most of those states to switch their party affiliation ended months ago and the deadline to register to vote has already ended in a few of those states.

If Bernie loses New York, it will be mostly likely because it is a closed primary. If New York was an open primary, I think he would win.

If he wins New York or at least keeps his loss close, I believe he can still move on and win.
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The math doesn't care what you believe.
 
While you guys continue with your inexplicable obsession to talk about Bernie, Colorado GOP had their caucus.

Sounds like Cruz cleaned house. Turns out the secret to stop Trump is to just make sure GOP voters can't actually vote for their pick. Colorado GOP is a mess, but they were really ahead of the game by canceling the vote.
 
Mr. RPG said:
I already told you how he can win. It isn't just about putting numbers into a calculator. What states he needs to win and by what margins isn't very important right now until we see how well he does in New York. I'm not going to make a prediction on the outcome of any upcoming state when the race could be very different depending on the results from New York. I'm focused on the New York primary. I think it is the most important state for Bernie up to this point in the race. This is his chance to prove that he has momentum.

Bernie will undoubtedly win tomorrow's caucus by an enormous margin. I'm guessing 75-25. New York is a different matter. Hillary currently has a good lead there according to the polls. However, Bernie is now leading Hillary in national polls and closing his margins in the upcoming states to about single-digit margins. He's gaining support. It is undeniable.

For Bernie, winning New York would be his biggest win yet by far and an enormous turning point in the race. It is one of the most delegate-rich states in this election and Bernie has huge support there. I think winning New York is paramount, but his campaign doesn't seem to think it is a must win. I'm not sure if I agree with his campaign on that. I suppose it depends on the margin of victory.

I don't think Bernie is trying to win New York for delegates, but to uphold his winning streak and challenge Hillary's front runner status in her adopted home state. A win in New York for Bernie, if he wins at all, will be by a small margin and he'll end up only netting a few delegates. However, he will be able to uphold both an enormous winning streak and the notion that he has the momentum to win the election.

What is going to hurt Bernie the most in the New York primary and the rest of the northeastern state primaries is the fact that they're all closed primaries with the exception of Rhode Island. Many of Bernie's votes come from independents. Unfortunately, the deadline for voters in most of those states to switch their party affiliation ended months ago and the deadline to register to vote has already ended in a few of those states.

If Bernie loses New York, it will be mostly likely because it is a closed primary. If New York was an open primary, I think he would win.

If he wins New York or at least keeps his loss close, I believe he can still move on and win.
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BIB: This just reeks of somebody that hasn't done any sort of research. To think NY is gonna have a knock on effect of such proportions across the nation.

TLDR: He wins NY, every other state has a knock on effect to the point where tens of thousands, even hundreds of thousands of people change their minds. Basically?

No.

At no point in this election can you prove previous wins have had a knock on effect. They win their states based on three factors. Area, Demographics, Method of voting.

You say Bernie has huge support in New York? Hillary's is bigger. She was a twice elected well regarded senator, the AA population there is bigger than in these states Bernies been winning and she is cleaning up with support. I'm actually going to take your advice and just wait for NY, because I'm fed up of reiterating how much she's going to beat Bernie there, I'll be glad when the day comes and it can put this ridiculous pipe dream of Bernie winning NY to bed.

Mr. RPG said:
If you need help with math I know a good thread.

There are roughly 1661 remaining pledged delegates. Bernie needs 56.6% of them to receive a simple majority of the pledged delegates.
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Cringing at your simplistic answer here. Why don't you break that down state by state and see how easy he gets an average of 56.6% eh? Because there are no more caucuses left and he isn't getting huge wins like he has been.
 
Miles X said:
I'm actually going to take your advice and just wait for NY, because I'm fed up of reiterating how much she's going to beat Bernie there, I'll be glad when the day comes and it can put this ridiculous pipe dream of Bernie winning NY to bed.
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Remind me, by how many points do you think Hillary will win New York?

Miles X said:
At no point in this election can you prove previous wins have had a knock on effect.
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I swear half of you guys said Hawaii was a lock for Hillary.

I'm not going to get a response to this, am I? You guys must hate being wrong.
;)
 
Mr. RPG said:
Remind me, by how many points do you think Hillary will win New York?
Click to expand...

Anywhere from 8 to 12. Entirely realistic given all the actual, real advantages she has (more than just shouting momentum and HUGE support lol).

Funny, you say he needs 56.6% of pledged delegates left, that's 13.2% point wins in each state.

So he wins NY by 5%? That'd be crazy and a real shocker. What happens next? The entire NE yet to vote goes a similar way? The huge gains she has in Maryland evaporate? New Mexico on the other side that borders Arizona and Texas, big wins for her, simply change their minds? You're clinging on to momentum because it's all there is for Bernie, and it doesn't actually do much. Just like Michigan didn't change the landscape. He had a shock win ... yet ... the following tuesday, all 5 states, Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, Florida and North Carolina all went to Hillary. 3 of those were not southern I might add.

Of the last 21 contests, the top 5 delegate rich ones. New York, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland and New Jersey. ALL have Hillary polling ahead, yet you expect dramatic shifts.

I might add, in terms of polling, in the NE area. the Ohio polls underestimated her. Don't go thinking it's all one way, because other than a couple of states, she's won all the states she's been polled to win.

I really do urge Bernie fans to start looking at the situation without such heavy bias, because it will soften the coming blow.
 
Miles X said:
Anywhere from 8 to 12. Entirely realistic given all the actual, real advantages she has (more than just shouting momentum and HUGE support lol).

Funny, you say he needs 56.6% of pledged delegates left, that's 13.2% point wins in each state.

So he wins NY by 5%? That'd be crazy and a real shocker. What happens next? The entire NE yet to vote goes a similar way? The huge gains she has in Maryland evaporate? New Mexico on the other side that borders Arizona and Texas, big wins for her, simply change their minds? You're clinging on to momentum because it's all there is for Bernie, and it doesn't actually do much. Just like Michigan didn't change the landscape. He had a shock win ... yet ... the following tuesday, all 5 states, Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, Florida and North Carolina all went to Hillary. 3 of those were not southern I might add.

Of the last 21 contests, the top 5 delegate rich ones. New York, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland and New Jersey. ALL have Hillary polling ahead, yet you expect dramatic shifts.
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Not to mention momentum works both ways. The bigger the Sanders wins in his states, the more motivated Hillary's supporters will turn out to destroy Bernie. He got crushed in
Ohio after narrowly winning Michigan. Hell he lost every state that night.

He could crack NY but there's simply not enough time to pivot to 5 states voting immediately after. You're looking at an SC into Super Tuesday situation.
 
Thunder Monkey said:
My prediction is:

61 Queen
38 Bern

Netting Hillary 151 delegates and Bernie 96.
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I wouldn't be surprised by big wins, but I'm being pessimistic with my predictions, roughly 45/55.

Any win for Bernie tho is just absurd, I dunno how anyone can say it with a straight face. Do they not read the news? Every thing I'm hearing about NY it seems like she's gonna smash it.

Seriously Bernie fans, link me to something that suggests he stands a chance!

Ogrekiller said:
Not to mention momentum works both ways. The bigger the Sanders wins in his states, the more motivated Hillary's supporters will turn out to destroy Bernie. He got crushed in
Ohio after narrowly winning Michigan. Hell he lost every state that night.

He could crack NY but there's simply not enough time to pivot to 5 states voting immediately after. You're looking at an SC into Super Tuesday situation.
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Indeed. I think Bernie not being a walk over has not only rallied the troops but forced Hillary to really fight, especially so in NY, she wants to win it big. She has the money to invest there was wel ($20.5m vs his $1.5m)
 
I think people underestimate the fact it's her home state.

Trump smashed the south against Cruz, but Cruz turned the tables in Texas.
Obama crushed Hillary in Illinois in 08, his home state, but Hillary did pretty well there this time around.
If Ohio wasn't Kasichs home state, Trump would have won it like he'll win everything else in the NE.
Bernie won Vermont, a state Hillary only barely lost to Obama, devastatingly.

New Yorkers love Hillary.
 
Miles X said:
I think people underestimate the fact it's her home state.

Trump smashed the south against Cruz, but Cruz turned the tables in Texas.
Obama crushed Hillary in Illinois in 08, his home state, but Hillary did pretty well there this time around.
If Ohio wasn't Kasichs home state, Trump would have won it like he'll win everything else in the NE.
Bernie won Vermont, a state Hillary only barely lost to Obama, devastatingly.

New Yorkers love Hillary.
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Wall Street will bail her out. Bernie brought a gun to a fist fight and it just got confiscated while the Queen's putting on the kid gloves.
 
A Human Becoming said:
Pretty sure that was sarcastic. You're going a little too much on the attack now.
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Second part yes, first part I think he holds some truth in. That 'attack' was pretty light humoured as well. I wouldn't need to point out the obvious stuff if they came out with a really basic argument as to how he'll do any of what they're saying lol.
 
Miles X said:
I think people underestimate the fact it's her home state.

Trump smashed the south against Cruz, but Cruz turned the tables in Texas.
Obama crushed Hillary in Illinois in 08, his home state, but Hillary did pretty well there this time around.
If Ohio wasn't Kasichs home state, Trump would have won it like he'll win everything else in the NE.
Bernie won Vermont, a state Hillary only barely lost to Obama, devastatingly.

New Yorkers love Hillary.
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I saw that statement about NY senators before you edited. Where in the world did you get that idea?
 
Mr. RPG said:
He's fine! :P



Bernie was actually born in New York! Honestly, he has more in common with New Yorkers than Hillary.
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Hillary was born in Illinois, hardly did her any favours in 08 against Obama.

It's where they've had their political career that matters.

Eesh double post.
 
Mr. RPG said:
I swear half of you guys said Hawaii was a lock for Hillary.
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I can't recall anyone but pigeon making anything in the way of definite prognostication about Hawaii. Everyone else posted some vague thing about how Hillary being surgically attached to Obama might help out there.

(Personally, I expected everything between Arizona and NY to be a loss by varying large margins, especially the Caucus Weekend Spectacular, but I also don't think I posted about that.

I did post about March 15th. Where I overestimated Sanders in 3 states.)
 
eBay Huckster said:
I can't recall anyone but pigeon making anything in the way of definite prognostication about Hawaii. Everyone else posted some vague thing about how Hillary being surgically attached to Obama might help out there.

(Personally, I expected everything between Arizona and NY to be a loss by varying large margins, especially the Caucus Weekend Spectacular, but I also don't think I posted about that.

I did post about March 15th. Where I overestimated Sanders in 3 states.)
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Yeah, I mentioned how on paper Hillary should have done alright there. Caucus tho, what ya gonna do. I never said she'd dominate it or even flat out win though.

I also predicted Bernie would win Wisconsin and Missouri (I guess I wasn't far off).
 
Bernie winning New York would be especially amazing because the prerequisite radioactive smoking crater where NYC used to be would be the clearest indication yet that we've merged with another universe
 
There is something that has confused me this election.

I think most would agree Hillary is more centrist than Bernie (lol) and that Trump is the most left, probably tied with Kasich. So it's no surprise when one wins a state, (Trump) Hillary usually wins it as well.

How come the exact opposite happens in other states? Most states Cruz wins in, Bernie wins in? They're complete polar opposites, it makes me wonder how civil war doesn't break out .. half the state are super liberal lefties, the other half are crazy right wingers.
 
Miles X said:
There is something that has confused me this election.

I think most would agree Hillary is more centrist than Bernie (lol) and that Trump is the most left, probably tied with Kasich. So it's no surprise when one wins a state, (Trump) Hillary usually wins it as well.

How come the exact opposite happens in other states? Most states Cruz wins in, Bernie wins in? They're complete polar opposites, it makes me wonder how civil war doesn't break out .. half the state are super liberal lefties, the other half are crazy right wingers.
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I'm a Kansan that has more than a few Socialist leanings.

I caucused for Hillary, but I think, at least for the left leaning in these states, that familiarity has bred severe contempt. We see Republican policies constantly strip away our family and friends of rights, education investment, backwards economic policy, and it turns us into extremists.

For the other side of the coin, they tend to either be wealthy enough to appreciate Republican economic policy, or believe that their side is the party of Christ. Sometimes both. And of course, some are just blatant racists, scared that soon the white man will get in turn what they've dished out.
 
Mr. RPG said:
Remind me, by how many points do you think Hillary will win New York?



I swear half of you guys said Hawaii was a lock for Hillary.

I'm not going to get a response to this, am I? You guys must hate being wrong.
;)
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Can't wait until NY votes to see you around moving goalposts and talking about new maths showing Bernie didn't lose by THAT much. ;)
 
Thunder Monkey said:
I'm a Kansan that has more than a few Socialist leanings.

I caucused for Hillary, but I think, at least for the left leaning in these states, that familiarity has bred severe contempt. We see Republican policies constantly strip away our family and friends of rights, education investment, backwards economic policy, and it turns us into extremists.

For the other side of the coin, they tend to either be wealthy enough to appreciate Republican economic policy, or believe that their side is the party of Christ. Sometimes both. And of course, some are just blatant racists, scared that soon the white man will get in turn what they've dished out.
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Makes perfect sense, thanks, I guess they push each other further apart and to extremes. Still wonder how they live side by side though haha. I can't imagine being as full on left as Bernie supporters are, and living next door to anti gay, racist, sexist ect folks.

euphemism said:
Can't wait until NY votes to see you around moving goalposts and talking about new maths showing Bernie didn't lose by THAT much. ;)
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Cali will become the new NY. Expecting solid 70/30 win there (even that wouldn't be enough).

I just wanna get to NY. I'm sure we'll get another bout of bonkers bernie bros out and about tonight/tomorrow claiming Wyoming and its 14 delegates is a devastating blow to Hillary.
 
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