April U.S. Primaries |OT| Vote in 20 Turns for World Leader

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Miles X said:
There is something that has confused me this election.

I think most would agree Hillary is more centrist than Bernie (lol) and that Trump is the most left, probably tied with Kasich. So it's no surprise when one wins a state, (Trump) Hillary usually wins it as well.

How come the exact opposite happens in other states? Most states Cruz wins in, Bernie wins in? They're complete polar opposites, it makes me wonder how civil war doesn't break out .. half the state are super liberal lefties, the other half are crazy right wingers.
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I mean, policywise Trump is even more fiscally conservative/isolationist than Cruz is. He wants to lower taxes even further, he wants to put tarriffs up to punish other nations, they're about in the same place on immigration, but I have to say Trump probably pulled Cruz a little more right than he used to be on that issue(which is quite a feat).

He's also paid lip service to all the social issues in pretty much the same way as Cruz. I'm not sure where people get the idea that he's to the left of him other than the fact that he said that he "doesn't want people to die in the street" which simply adds up to him opening up the health-insurance market to work across states lines, which, while a good idea, is very much a republican idea(capitalism, ho!).

I suppose Cruz has "I will never ever compromise... EVER!" on Trump.
 
An upset for Bernie today would be a disaster for his campaign. It would bump up the margins he'd need to win in every state forward, and he's running out of friendly states.
 
eBay Huckster said:
closed caucus, backlash from the "unqualified" comments, bears voted for clinton
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balladofwindfishes said:
Bernie had a rough week last week with that terrible interview and then getting caught in a direct lie about Hillary later in the week. His campaign kind of fell apart at the worst possible moment.
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MHWilliams said:
Older voters, some backlash from the "unqualified" stuff.

Bernie should still take it because it's a closed caucus and he does well in those. Also, demographics.
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XBP said:
Reports suggest a bunch of absentee ballots, which always favor clinton.
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All very true. I guess I underestimated the controversy over the unqualified comments. However I didn't know people could absentee vote in caucuses! Guess it varies state by state.

If true it may be a reason for the large swing for Clinton cause Clinton supporters generally don't have time and can't (or don't want to) make caucuses, hence the bump Sanders usually gets.
 
Y2Kev said:
Does ny have early voting?
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No, but polling stations are open a lot longer than most other places.

Primary Elections
In New York City and the counties of Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland, Orange, Putnam and Erie, POLLS OPEN AT 6 AM - CLOSE AT 9 PM. In all other counties, POLLS OPEN AT 12 NOON and CLOSE AT 9 PM.
General Election
POLLS OPEN AT 6 AM - CLOSE AT 9 PM
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That's 15 hours in high population areas for the primaries.
 
No idea. But if it does have absentee voting you can bet that clinton will win 75% of them. Sanders' early voting game is very weak. He has lost so many states just because of this one factor.
 
XBP said:
No idea. But if it does have absentee voting you can bet that clinton will win 75% of them. Sanders' early voting game is very weak. He has lost so many states just because of this one factor.
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it does. you need to provide an excuse in NY, but that's generally as simple as possible
 
balladofwindfishes said:
We should totally have mail in ballots. Considering NY is so liberal and do Democrat filled, you'd think it would happen by now.
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the state legislature is full of actual anti-democratic fuckery (compare to the national party's imagined anti-democratic fuckery), so otherwise-common-sense things like this get a roadblock thrown in front of them
 
So if absentee ballots were the main push for Hillary in Wyoming how does that reflect when the delegates go to the county convention? Do they even have those in Wyoming?
 
JVIDICAN said:
So if absentee ballots were the main push for Hillary in Wyoming how does that reflect when the delegates go to the county convention? Do they even have those in Wyoming?
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iirc, the in-person county delegates are the ones that get to be delegates at the state convention
 
JVIDICAN said:
So if absentee ballots were the main push for Hillary in Wyoming how does that reflect when the delegates go to the county convention? Do they even have those in Wyoming?
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No. That is based on who shows up. So chances are that the final percentage will be quite different.
 
So is it likely bernie won't get significantly more delegates in Wyoming than Hilary today because it looks like the delegate count is 7 to 6 in favor of Bernie right now and he's only leading by like 12% right now.
 
mo60 said:
So is it likely bernie won't get significantly more delegates in Wyoming than Hilary today because it looks like the delegate count is 7 to 6 in favor of Bernie right now and he's only leading by like 12% right now.
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Yeah, he needs a blowout in the last remaining county to even gain delegates today. Sad!
 
Just goes to show how Bernie is so closely tied to Independents to be viable. Caucuses are Bernie's bread and butter, but when they're closed it makes it a bit harder for him. THat's why the contests for the rest of the month should benefit Hillary.
 
Hilbert said:
Those are kind of old numbers, though. The revised numbers have him needing 11:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-really-hard-to-get-bernie-sanders-988-more-delegates/
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I mean he would have needed 80% of the vote to get to 11 delegates out of 14. Anyone expecting those numbers in a closed caucus with early voting is absolutely dellusional. The best he could have done was a 8-6 split. It will most likely be a 7-7 split in this stage of the caucus with a very high chance of going 8-6 in the next stage.

adam387 said:
Just goes to show how Bernie is so closely tied to Independents to be viable. Caucuses are Bernie's bread and butter, but when they're closed it makes it a bit harder for him. THat's why the contests for the rest of the month should benefit Hillary.
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When they are closed and allow early voting*
 
XBP said:
I mean he would have needed 80% of the vote to get to 11 delegates out of 14. Anyone expecting those numbers in a closed caucus with early voting is absolutely dellusional. The best he could have done was a 8-6 split. It will most likely be a 7-7 split in this stage of the caucus with a very high chance of going 8-6 in the next stage.



When they are closed and allow early voting*
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That's not what was expected, that's what he needed.
 
XBP said:
I mean he would have needed 80% of the vote to get to 11 delegates out of 14. Anyone expecting those numbers in a closed caucus with early voting is absolutely dellusional. The best he could have done was a 8-6 split. It will most likely be a 7-7 split in this stage of the caucus with a very high chance of going 8-6 in the next stage.
*
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To win he absolutely needs to start beating expectations.

If he hits the target for all those old 538 numbers he still will not have the majority of pledged delegates.
 
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