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Clinton to clinch Democratic nomination when polls close in New Jersey

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Macho Madness

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Clinton Will Likely Clinch The Democratic Nomination In New Jersey

We’ve known for some time that Hillary Clinton will almost certainly be the Democratic nominee. But when will she clinch the nomination? If you look at the few remaining contests on the Democratic primary calendar, the major news outlets — barring something devastating happening to the Clinton campaign in the next few weeks — are likely to declare Clinton the nominee on June 7. More specifically, New Jersey will likely push Clinton across the finish line, and she may clinch the nomination even before the polls close in California.

If major news outlets declare Clinton the nominee on June 7, they will be counting superdelegates, as they did in 2008 when they declared Barack Obama the presumptive Democratic nominee on June 3. Now, you might ask “why include superdelegates?” It’s a fair question; superdelegates can change their minds, after all. For that reason, we haven’t included them in our delegate tracker — there was a chance that superdelegates backing Clinton might switch sides, particularly if Sanders was able to win a majority of elected delegates.
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So California sort of matters?
 
Not a fan of calling her the nominee until she gets the majority of pledged delegates, although she is almost guaranteed to do so.
 
blackaroni said:
She already has the majority of those.
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She has the majority of the ones that have been awarded, but not a half + 1 majority of all the pledged delegates that will be awarded. I mean, that's literally only because California has 475 and they haven't voted yet, but she doesn't have the pledged majority yet.
 
All the votes are cast (all the votes are cast)
The people had their say (people had their say)
I took on the one percent! (took on the one percent)
The fat cats got their way! (fat cats got their way)
I'd be in first place (I'd be in first place)
If I were in L.A. (that's the subjunctive case)

California dreamin'! (California dreamin')
We're nearly done with May.
 
Hazmat said:
She has the majority of the ones that have been awarded, but not a half + 1 majority of all the pledged delegates that will be awarded. I mean, that's literally only because California has 475 and they haven't voted yet, but she doesn't have the pledged majority yet.
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No one is likely to get the pledged majority (it's literally impossible for Bernie to). The winner of the plurality will be the victor.
 
Hazmat said:
She has the majority of the ones that have been awarded, but not a half + 1 majority of all the pledged delegates that will be awarded. I mean, that's literally only because California has 475 and they haven't voted yet, but she doesn't have the pledged majority yet.
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And of course, it'll only make up the difference if Sanders wins like 80% of the vote there, to the point where Clinton wouldn't win any delegates.
 
California only matters so Clinton can win with pledged delegates only, giving Sanders less power during the nomination process.
 
I voted for Bernie and will vote 3rd party in November. That said, it was obvious from the beginning that Bernie wouldn't get the nomination. A revolution doesn't happen in one election and the worst thing for one would be for it to revolve around one person. If you're a Bernie supporter, learn from this election and take advantage of the organizational structure that Bernie has built up to continue pushing for the issues you support and make them mainstream.
 
ZealousD said:
Not until he won the majority of pledged delegates. Also wasn't his superdelegate lead much smaller by this time?
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Obama needed super delegates to become the nominee in 2008. He did not win by pledged delegates alone.
Hazmat said:
She has the majority of the ones that have been awarded, but not a half + 1 majority of all the pledged delegates that will be awarded. I mean, that's literally only because California has 475 and they haven't voted yet, but she doesn't have the pledged majority yet.
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Man, I don't know what this means.
 
titiklabingapat said:
Why not? They are part of the process and are fair game. The Republicans wish they had super-delegates right now.
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The superdelegates are extremely undemocratic as far as I am concerned. The delegate and primary/caucus process itself isn't perfect but superdelegates are the least democratic part of this process.

And there's no hypocrisy from my part on this. If Bernie even attempts to clinch the nomination by turning over the superdelegates he can fuck off. And I voted for the guy.
 
The two candidates likely to square off in November's general election are both disliked or even hated by roughly six in 10 Americans, according to the results of the latest weekly NBC News/SurveyMonkey tracking poll out Tuesday.

Asked their feelings about Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, just 17 percent said they admired the former secretary of state, while 10 percent said the same of the reality TV star-turned-presumptive Republican nominee. About one in four said they like Clinton or Trump but do not admire them. Another 37 percent and 39 percent said they dislike but do not hate Clinton and Trump, respectively, while 21 percent said they hate Clinton and 24 percent said they hate Trump.

The poll released Tuesday would not appear to be an outlier in that respect. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey released earlier this week found that both candidates are the least popular in the history of the poll. Clinton's favorability rating in that poll is a net -20 points (34 percent to 54 percent), while Trump's is even lower, at -29 points (29 percent to 58 percent). Those figures are actually improvements of four and 12 points, respectively, for both Clinton and Trump.

And in the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll released Sunday, 57 percent each said they had an unfavorable opinion of Clinton and Trump. Of the 57 percent, 46 percent said they had a strongly unfavorable opinion of Clinton and 45 percent said the same of Trump.
Clinton's slim four-point lead over Trump among registered voters remains largely unchanged from the previous week's NBC News/SurveyMonkey tracking poll, at 47 percent to 43 percent. In the last poll, Clinton's lead over Trump narrowed to 48 percent to 45 percent.

The poll was conducted online from May 16-22, surveying a national sample of 16,710 adults, of which 14,513 are registered voters, with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/poll-hillary-clinton-trump-voters-dislike-223504#ixzz49bYr4BD5
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook

People don't like your candidate. Its going to seem like a very long time between now and November.
 
ZealousD said:
The superdelegates are extremely undemocratic as far as I am concerned. The delegate and primary/caucus process itself isn't perfect but superdelegates are the least democratic part of this process.

And there's no hypocrisy from my part on this. If Bernie even attempts to clinch the nomination by turning over the superdelegates he can fuck off. And I voted for the guy.
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No, caucuses are the least democratic of all of the systems here.

Unless you believe turnout in the high teens and low 20s is acceptable for democracy.

Bernie won more delegate through caucuses then Hillary has through supers. And in states with a primary after the caucus, Hillary won. how about that for democracy.
 
Bel Marduk said:
The two candidates likely to square off in November's general election are both disliked or even hated by roughly six in 10 Americans, according to the results of the latest weekly NBC News/SurveyMonkey tracking poll out Tuesday.

Asked their feelings about Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, just 17 percent said they admired the former secretary of state, while 10 percent said the same of the reality TV star-turned-presumptive Republican nominee. About one in four said they like Clinton or Trump but do not admire them. Another 37 percent and 39 percent said they dislike but do not hate Clinton and Trump, respectively, while 21 percent said they hate Clinton and 24 percent said they hate Trump.

The poll released Tuesday would not appear to be an outlier in that respect. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey released earlier this week found that both candidates are the least popular in the history of the poll. Clinton's favorability rating in that poll is a net -20 points (34 percent to 54 percent), while Trump's is even lower, at -29 points (29 percent to 58 percent). Those figures are actually improvements of four and 12 points, respectively, for both Clinton and Trump.

And in the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll released Sunday, 57 percent each said they had an unfavorable opinion of Clinton and Trump. Of the 57 percent, 46 percent said they had a strongly unfavorable opinion of Clinton and 45 percent said the same of Trump.
Clinton's slim four-point lead over Trump among registered voters remains largely unchanged from the previous week's NBC News/SurveyMonkey tracking poll, at 47 percent to 43 percent. In the last poll, Clinton's lead over Trump narrowed to 48 percent to 45 percent.

The poll was conducted online from May 16-22, surveying a national sample of 16,710 adults, of which 14,513 are registered voters, with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/poll-hillary-clinton-trump-voters-dislike-223504#ixzz49bYr4BD5
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook

People don't like your candidate. Its going to seem like a very long time between now and November.
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This is some meltdown, pal.
 
Bel Marduk said:
The two candidates likely to square off in November's general election are both disliked or even hated by roughly six in 10 Americans, according to the results of the latest weekly NBC News/SurveyMonkey tracking poll out Tuesday.

Asked their feelings about Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, just 17 percent said they admired the former secretary of state, while 10 percent said the same of the reality TV star-turned-presumptive Republican nominee. About one in four said they like Clinton or Trump but do not admire them. Another 37 percent and 39 percent said they dislike but do not hate Clinton and Trump, respectively, while 21 percent said they hate Clinton and 24 percent said they hate Trump.

The poll released Tuesday would not appear to be an outlier in that respect. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey released earlier this week found that both candidates are the least popular in the history of the poll. Clinton's favorability rating in that poll is a net -20 points (34 percent to 54 percent), while Trump's is even lower, at -29 points (29 percent to 58 percent). Those figures are actually improvements of four and 12 points, respectively, for both Clinton and Trump.

And in the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll released Sunday, 57 percent each said they had an unfavorable opinion of Clinton and Trump. Of the 57 percent, 46 percent said they had a strongly unfavorable opinion of Clinton and 45 percent said the same of Trump.
Clinton's slim four-point lead over Trump among registered voters remains largely unchanged from the previous week's NBC News/SurveyMonkey tracking poll, at 47 percent to 43 percent. In the last poll, Clinton's lead over Trump narrowed to 48 percent to 45 percent.

The poll was conducted online from May 16-22, surveying a national sample of 16,710 adults, of which 14,513 are registered voters, with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/poll-hillary-clinton-trump-voters-dislike-223504#ixzz49bYr4BD5
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook

People don't like your candidate. Its going to seem like a very long time between now and November.
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Keep in mind some of that is grumpy Sanders supporters. I'm not sure what the numbers will be ny August, but I expect it to be a bit better for Clinton.
 
blackaroni said:
Obama needed super delegates to become the nominee in 2008. He did not win by pledged delegates alone.

Man, I don't know what this means.
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There are X number of pledged delegates that are awarded through primaries and caucuses. Clinton does not yet have a majority of those delegates because so many of them are from states that have not yet voted. After CA votes, Hillary will (almost certainly) have reached the point where she has more than half of all the pledged delegates available in the 2016 primary. When people talk about a "majority of pledged delegates" they mean all of them, not just the ones that have already been awarded.
 
ZealousD said:
The superdelegates are extremely undemocratic as far as I am concerned. The delegate and primary/caucus process itself isn't perfect but superdelegates are the least democratic part of this process.
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Why are supers undemocratic, and especially more so than caucuses, which deter voter turnout?
 
Laevateinn said:
I voted for Bernie and will vote 3rd party in November. That said, it was obvious from the beginning that Bernie wouldn't get the nomination. A revolution doesn't happen in one election and the worst thing for one would be for it to revolve around one person. If you're a Bernie supporter, learn from this election and take advantage of the organizational structure that Bernie has built up to continue pushing for the issues you support and make them mainstream.
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So you want the country to move towards Bernie's vision but you're voting in such a way that hurts the democratic party's chances of winning the election? That makes perfect sense.

Bel Marduk said:
People don't like your candidate. Its going to seem like a very long time between now and November.
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Then why did she get millions more votes than Bernie? You don't have to be likable to be qualified.
 
Armaros said:
No, caucuses are the least democratic of all of the systems here.

Unless you believe turnout in the high teens and low 20s is acceptable for democracy.

Bernie won more delegate through caucuses then Hillary has through supers. And in states with a primary after the caucus, Hillary won. how about that for democracy.
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Caucuses at least involve thousands of people per state. Superdelegates are essentially "the vote of this one party member is worth the vote of thousands of people". Even a delegate derived from a caucus.
 
Hazmat said:
There are X number of pledged delegates that are awarded through primaries and caucuses. Clinton does not yet have a majority of those delegates because so many of them are from states that have not yet voted. After CA votes, Hillary will (almost certainly) have reached the point where she has more than half of all the pledged delegates available in the 2016 primary. When people talk about a "majority of pledged delegates" they mean all of them, not just the ones that have already been awarded.
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Ah, gotcha. Thanks!

ZealousD said:
Caucuses at least involve thousands of people per state. Superdelegates are essentially "the vote of this one party member is worth the vote of thousands of people". Even a delegate derived from a caucus.
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That's how pledged delegates work too.
 
ZealousD said:
Caucuses at least involve thousands of people per state. Superdelegates are essentially "the vote of this one party member is worth the vote of thousands of people". Even a delegate derived from a caucus.
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Superdelegates are voted in members of government BY democratic voters.
 
Twenty seven bucks
I passed along today
Then I got on my PC! (Got on my PC)
And I facebanked all daaa-ayyy (facebanked all day)
You know that Weaver likes his gold (Weaver likes his gold)
He'll make sure Bernie stays. (Make sure Bernie stays)

California dreamin'! (California dreamin')
At least 'til after May.
 
Blader said:
Why are supers undemocratic, and especially more so than caucuses, which deter voter turnout?
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The voter turnout for a superdelegate is literally a single voter. Voter turnout for a superdelegate isn't even a thing.
 
Eagerly anticipating New Jersey doing what they normally do and just ruin everything by giving the surprise win to *opens envelope*

...Dennis Kucinich?
 
Piggus said:
So you want the country to move towards Bernie's vision but you're voting in such a way that hurts the democratic party's chances of winning the election? That makes perfect sense.



Then why did she get millions more votes than Bernie? You don't have to be likable to be qualified.
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I am moving to one of the bluest places in the country. If my vote effects the outcome of the election than Hillary is the most pathetic candidate ever. I will use my vote for the presidency to vote for the candidate whose views most closely resemble my own. It is my right as an American to do so.

Voting for Hillary will be throwing my vote away in my opinion. The only way she can expect my support is if she were to back ColoradoCare.

If it makes you feel better, I will contribute to removing Mark Kirk from the Senate.
 
titiklabingapat said:
Why not? They are part of the process and are fair game. The Republicans wish they had super-delegates right now.
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Less than they used to, I think. He's come out swinging against her and she's fine nothing to answer back, despite claiming she's focusing on the general election.

Polls are getting closer. Sure it's early, but I'm beginning to think he's got a real shot at this. It's unfortunate, but the general amount of dislike and mistrust toward her, added to Trump's willingness to "go there" with regard to Bill Clinton's past may very well hand Trump this election.
 
Armaros said:
Superdelegates are voted in members of government BY democratic voters.
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Nobody votes for a governor or congressman based on which candidate they think they'll vote for in the national convention. Come on.
 
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