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[ReplacementPelican]

Someone Is Putting Up "Halt Ze German Advance" Anti-EU Billboards - BuzzFeed News


Nooo, they're on to us, *climbs out of the Panzer*

Oh, the Leave campaign. They're doing a good job about show that their side isn't full of xenophobic little-Englanders.

-edit-
Oh shit, top of the page, I better add some content.

My Partner's Aunt keeps posting lots of Leave propaganda, claiming that the money we spend on the EU would be re-spent on the NHS. Ignoring any rebate and, hilariously, she mistrusts the Tories enough but thinks the money would be sensibly reinvested. Then whinged about CAP, despite the EU providing Farmers with a lot of support. It's all a shit-show, really. Arguments on Facebook, families at the table. I'll be glad when it's all over, I feel like I'm running on a minefield half the time.

That being said, I'll enjoy the breakdowns of the vehemently 'if we stay in, we'll lose our freedom and the Great British way of life and we'll be awash in Turkish immigrants and probably scary refugees too!' crowd.

 

[Hasney]

I think it all depends on the younger people. If many cant be arsed to vote then I can see it being close.

Not sure. Seeing the Leave campaign suddenly pivot and go "Hey young people, what remain said was right, leaving the EU means lower house prices!" means that rhetoric from remain has worked on the key Leave demographics so they're trying to turn it around. Older homeowners finding something to care about.

The last Telegraph poll had those demographics turning slowly to remain too, hence the bookies slashing the odds.

 

[Beefy]

Not sure. Seeing the Leave campaign suddenly pivot and go "Hey young people, what remain said was right, leaving the EU means lower house prices!" means that rhetoric from remain has worked on the key Leave demographics so they're trying to turn it around. Older homeowners finding something to care about.

The last Telegraph poll had those demographics turning slowly to remain too, hence the bookies slashing the odds.

It's weird how some polls still have leave out infront by a few percent. Then other polls have stay as a clear winner. I hope the polls havent fucked up again.

 

[Hasney]

It's weird how some polls still have leave out infront by a few percent. Then other polls have stay as a clear winner. I hope the polls havent fucked up again.

Nah, after last time, it's best to look mainly at the phone polls. Most of the leave winners are public online polls that just get linked around.

 

[Beefy]

Nah, after last time, it's best to look mainly at the phone polls. Most of the leave winners are public online polls that just get linked around.

What were the phone polls like last time?

 

[danowat]

Sorta on topic (ish), anyone watch the immigrants guide to Britain last night?, I liked the question, what's the difference between an immigrant and an expat (the proper answer is nothing, they are the same) the people they asked said money, an expat has it, an immigrant just want's a hand out.

 

[Carcetti]

Sorta on topic (ish), anyone watch the immigrants guide to Britain last night?, I liked the question, what's the difference between an immigrant and an expat (the proper answer is nothing, they are the same) the people they asked said money, an expat has it, an immigrant just want's a hand out.

Expat is when you or your friends go abroad to take a job in another country, immigrant is when someone from abroad comes to take a job in your country.

 

[danowat]

Expat is when you or your friends go abroad to take a job in another country, immigrant is when someone from abroad comes to take a job and (or?) benefits in your country.

FTFY

 

[travisbickle]

Sorta on topic (ish), anyone watch the immigrants guide to Britain last night?, I liked the question, what's the difference between an immigrant and an expat (the proper answer is nothing, they are the same) the people they asked said money, an expat has it, an immigrant just want's a hand out.

As a British person who lives and works abroad, I would say I am an immigrant and, from my experience, an ex-pat is someone who criticizes the food and people of the place they live in and have rude, ignorant opinions about the culture.

 

[Linkstrikesback]

It's weird how some polls still have leave out infront by a few percent. Then other polls have stay as a clear winner. I hope the polls havent fucked up again.

I think the opinions of the betting agencies are a good indicator of how likely the results are vs the online polls. It is, literally, their job, after all. As already mentioned,phone polls are probably more accurate too

 

[mclem]

Had a random coldcall yesterday evening, apparently from the BSIE campaign. Didn't ask much, wasn't sure if it was a poll or an attempt to convince me if I'd expressed uncertainty.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

I think the opinions of the betting agencies are a good indicator of how likely the results are vs the online polls. It is, literally, their job, after all. As already mentioned,phone polls are probably more accurate too

Hmm, I disagree. Bookies odds are affected by how many bets have been placed on each side. It's really giving you an indicator of what people (in particular, gamblers) think will happen, rather than a indication of the real likelihood of that happening. And indeed, when people generally are polled, they think a Brexit is unlikely to happen.

I'm not sure why you think phone polls are likely to be more accurate than internet ones. I would think it would be the other way around. With all the derision ("xenophobe! bigot! little Englander!") heaped on Brexiters, I would have thought there would be a "shy Tory" effect, where people would actually be likely to be more honest in a "safe" internet poll than over the phone.

Edit: wrt bookies odds, didn't Nate Silver come a cropper with that recently by basing a lot of his analysis of the Trump ascendency on betting markets?

 

[El Topo]

It's really interesting for me to watch this entire discussion. I'm sure reason will prevail, but in times like these, who knows?

Nooo, they're on to us, *climbs out of the Panzer*

Ach, damn. Maybe next time.

 

[GrizzleBoy]

Ed "The Bacon" Miliband dropping thick beats harder than the Labour Party drops Edstones.

The Bacon Milliband?

So, those rumours of Cameron putting his appendage in a pigs mouth in uni...... :-O

By the way, what the heck do I vote for...seriously.

 

[danowat]

By the way, what the heck do I vote for...seriously.

If you don't know who to vote for, don't vote...........

 

[Maledict]

Hmm, I disagree. Bookies odds are affected by how many bets have been placed on each side. It's really giving you an indicator of what people (in particular, gamblers) think will happen, rather than a indication of the real likelihood of that happening. And indeed, when people generally are polled, they think a Brexit is unlikely to happen.

I'm not sure why you think phone polls are likely to be more accurate than internet ones. I would think it would be the other way around. With all the derision ("xenophobe! bigot! little Englander!") heaped on Brexiters, I would have thought there would be a "shy Tory" effect, where people would actually be likely to be more honest in a "safe" internet poll than over the phone.

Edit: wrt bookies odds, didn't Nate Silver come a cropper with that recently by basing a lot of his analysis of the Trump ascendency on betting markets?

Bookies have shown to be very good at predicting outcomes in the past, in some circumstances more than the polls. And no, Nate wasn't tripped up by relying on the betting markets - the better markets were hugely more positive on Trump than he was. Nate tripped up by ignoring the data he had and trying to be a pundit instead (which he freely admitted).

 

[Nivash]

Someone Is Putting Up "Halt Ze German Advance" Anti-EU Billboards - BuzzFeed News


Nooo, they're on to us, *climbs out of the Panzer*

I'm not sure what the Brits are afraid of, anyway. Your panzers aren't that intimidating when you arm them with broomsticks.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Bookies have shown to be very good at predicting outcomes in the past, in some circumstances more than the polls. And no, Nate wasn't tripped up by relying on the betting markets - the better markets were hugely more positive on Trump than he was. Nate tripped up by ignoring the data he had and trying to be a pundit instead (which he freely admitted).

Really? Articles like this one seem to show him using the change in betting markets and drawing conclusions from them. I just don't think that's a great idea. As I said it more a measure of what people think will happen. That can influence the outcome for sure (some people won't turn out if they think the result is a foregone conclusion, for example) but it's not the be-all and end-all.

 

[Goodlife]

Leave has improved it's polling (although still behind) due to the recent "immigrants are going to over run this already crowded country" stories that have been coming out recently.
So I'm fully expecting these stories to get worse and worse in the coming weeks and turn into full on, blatant racism in the week or so before.

 

[RedSparrows]

They've been full on racism for a good while.

Much of the populist right likes to whinge about 'legitimate concerns about immigration' being tarnished as 'racist', and thus easily dismissed.

The problem with this is that, yes, whilst there are legitimate concerns about immigration, that the whole political spectrum should have an angle on and thoughts and solutions and etc etc, there are also a fuck load of simple racists trundling about, speaking theyre braynes.

 

[phisheep]

Someone Is Putting Up "Halt Ze German Advance" Anti-EU Billboards - BuzzFeed News


Nooo, they're on to us, *climbs out of the Panzer*

This makes even less sense than I thought it did.

Germany is advancing while being in the EU, and we want to stop them by running away?

If this is trying to appeal to historical patriotism, it falls rather flat.

 

[Miles Quaritch]

This makes even less sense than I thought it did.

Germany is advancing while being in the EU, and we want to stop them by running away?

If this is trying to appeal to historical patriotism, it falls rather flat.

The people they are trying to reach aren't particularly educated, so it makes sense from that standpoint.

 

[mclem]

This makes even less sense than I thought it did.

Germany is advancing while being in the EU, and we want to stop them by running away?

If this is trying to appeal to historical patriotism, it falls rather flat.

I think they're basically trying to evoke the intro to Dad's Army.

 

[danowat]

It's the Germans we are supposed to be frightened of now?, I thought it was the Turks?

 

[Maledict]

So the guardians latest poll, done by telephone, now shows leave having a sharp rise and being ahead. That goes contrary to previous polls where telephone polling always shows a lead for remain.

That's worrying, to say the least - it seems to show that the refugee and immigration scaremongering is working. Hopefully it's just a one off poll, as otherwise things are looking grim for remain in the final 3 weeks...

 

[Trumpets]

So the guardians latest poll, done by telephone, now shows leave having a sharp rise and being ahead

Cool, with any luck this will increase as we reach polling day and we'll get out democracy back.

 

[ClosingADoor]

Cool, with any luck this will increase as we reach polling day and we'll get out democracy back.

Because you lost it somewhere along the way? All this nonsense about non-democratic stuff, while by far most laws are decided in your own parliament and the EU is a democratic institution.

 

[Hasney]

Cool, with any luck this will increase as we reach polling day and we'll get out democracy back.

I'm not entirely sure when we lost the democratic process. But hey, at least our current government could invoked its own human rights act. Hooray, I think.

 

[Trumpets]

while by far most laws are decided in your own parliament

Exactly, most but not all.

How do I vote out the (unelected) people in the EU who make those laws?

And how do I vote out the EU president if I think he's doing a bad job?

 

[ClosingADoor]

Exactly, most but not all.

How do I vote out the (unelected) people in the EU who make those laws?

And how do I vote out the EU president if I think he's doing a bad job?

You vote for the European Parliament that approves the laws. Your government decides on representatives for the EU Commissions that write the laws.

Just because you don't vote in everyone directly, doesn't mean it is undemocratic. You also don't directly vote for your Prime Minister and Ministers in charge. Yet they are chosen democratically also.

The EU Commission President is approved by the EU Parliament, just like in many democracies. The Parliament also has the power to sent the Commission home if they want to.

The European Council is formed by the heads of state of all countries, which are democratically elected. They vote for the Council President. The President reports to the Parliament.

So you vote for Parliament and the Council, and the Commission and Presidents are decided by the people you voted for.

I fail to see the undemocratic part here.

 

[Baloonatic]

I should get more educated on all of this. At the moment I'll be voting to stay because that seems cool I guess? I feel like we should stick together. "We" being the human race.

In terms of how it affects our economy I honestly have no idea. Which choice will most likely have the worst outcome?

 

[Camp Freddie]

Exactly, most but not all.

How do I vote out the (unelected) people in the EU who make those laws?

And how do I vote out the EU president if I think he's doing a bad job?

Same way you vote for anyone else. In fact, most people have more chance of changing their MEP than they do with their MP, since it's done by proportional representation. My UK parliament vote means shit (like about 80% of the country) since I don't live in a "key marginal".

Plus, the "EU president" (whichever post you mean by that) is nothing special. It's not like a USA president that has actual executive power.

I should get more educated on all of this. At the moment I'll be voting to stay because that seems cool I guess? I feel like we should stick together. "We" being the human race.

In terms of how it affects our economy I honestly have no idea. Which choice will most likely have the worst outcome?

Leaving will make the economy worse in the short-medium term. I don't think that's debatable. Businesses and markets hate uncertainty so an exit will be bad - even if the new UK government handles it well. I'd say it'll be at least 2008 or "Black Wednesday" levels of bad, which is to say it'll be painful but we won't have a Venezuela-style collapse.

Long-term is harder to predict. The UK will no longer be part of the world's largest trading block, though we might get some benefit from exploiting our commonwealth links.
Personally, I don't think the UK can effectively compete with the EU. We'll probably have to become a de facto EU member like Norway and Switzerland if we want to continue our trade relationships, but we won't have any say in the EU rules that we'll still have to comply with.

I think that leaving would mean we have less control over our economy since the bigger partner almost always comes out ahead in trade deals. We'll almost certainly be the loser in bilateral deals with EU/USA/China.
In return, we'll have more control over immigration, though I'm not sure if it'll really make much difference. Both Switzerland and Norway have to comply with EU free movement rules as part of their deals with the EU.

 

[Miles Quaritch]

It's the Germans we are supposed to be frightened of now?, I thought it was the Turks?

It's the Gercuks we should be really scared of.

 

[Miles Quaritch]

Exactly, most but not all.

How do I vote out the (unelected) people in the EU who make those laws?

And how do I vote out the EU president if I think he's doing a bad job?

Can you name three laws that are imposed on the UK from the EU without any UK input.

 

[Stereogatari]

If the UK leaves, would getting Turkey in become a priority?

 

[Baloonatic]

Leaving will make the economy worse in the short-medium term. I don't think that's debatable. Businesses and markets hate uncertainty so an exit will be bad - even if the new UK government handles it well. I'd say it'll be at least 2008 or "Black Wednesday" levels of bad, which is to say it'll be painful but we won't have a Venezuela-style collapse.

Long-term is harder to predict. The UK will no longer be part of the world's largest trading block, though we might get some benefit from exploiting our commonwealth links.
Personally, I don't think the UK can effectively compete with the EU. We'll probably have to become a de facto EU member like Norway and Switzerland if we want to continue our trade relationships, but we won't have any say in the EU rules that we'll still have to comply with.

I think that leaving would mean we have less control over our economy since the bigger partner almost always comes out ahead in trade deals. We'll almost certainly be the loser in bilateral deals with EU/USA/China.
In return, we'll have more control over immigration, though I'm not sure if it'll really make much difference. Both Switzerland and Norway have to comply with EU free movement rules as part of their deals with the EU.

Thanks for the summary, I think I'll stick with my original instinct to stay.

 

[Lirlond]

If the UK leaves, would getting Turkey in become a priority?

Not really, so long as Erdogan is at the helm there's no way they'll fit membership criteria.

Not to mention Cyprus and Greece will basically veto any mention of it.

 

[Trumpets]

You vote for the European Parliament that approves the laws. Your government decides on representatives for the EU Commissions that write the laws.

Just because you don't vote in everyone directly, doesn't mean it is undemocratic. You also don't directly vote for your Prime Minister and Ministers in charge. Yet they are chosen democratically also.

The EU Commission President is approved by the EU Parliament, just like in many democracies. The Parliament also has the power to sent the Commission home if they want to.

The European Council is formed by the heads of state of all countries, which are democratically elected. They vote for the Council President. The President reports to the Parliament.

So you vote for Parliament and the Council, and the Commission and Presidents are decided by the people you voted for.

Thanks, but I'm still not clear - who do I vote for if I dislike the laws coming from the EU and I dislike the president(s)? Who should I have voted for in the last EU elections to get rid of those people?

That is a very easy question to answer when talking about a UK general election.

 

[Ravensmash]

Thanks, but I'm still not clear - who do I vote for if I dislike the laws coming from the EU and I dislike the president(s)? Who should I have voted for in the last EU elections to get rid of those people?

That is a very easy question to answer when talking about a UK general election.

Well, probably not people who actively avoid attending the EU Parliament because they don't believe we should be in it.

 

[Exterminieren]

Thanks, but I'm still not clear - who do I vote for if I dislike the laws coming from the EU and I dislike the president(s)? Who should I have voted for in the last EU elections to get rid of those people?

That is a very easy question to answer when talking about a UK general election.

What EU-specific laws that have had no input from our elected government do you object to?

 

[GAMEPROFF]

So, how is the public opinion currently? Will you stay or leave?

Really, really scared of what will happen next week.

 

[cjp]

So, how is the public opinion currently? Will you stay or leave?

Really, really scared of what will happen next week.

Err, what's happening next week?

 

[GAMEPROFF]

Err, what's happening next week?

I dont know why but I thought you guys were voting next week - But I was wrong

Still curious about the public opinion.

 

[Lightning Count]

Really hoping that sense prevails here, UK leaving the EU would be a disaster and set us back a long way.

 

[Trumpets]

What EU-specific laws that have had no input from our elected government do you object to?

Having 'input' isn't the same as making the laws ourselves.There are 28 EU countries, very different from each other in location, size, culture, nature of economy yadda yadda, and they can all be said to have input in making EU laws. If we made all our laws ourselves then we can make sure that they are applicable to us, and if they aren't we can vote out whoever made them. So I object to all EU laws on principle.

 

[Philly40]

Having 'input' isn't the same as making the laws ourselves.There are 28 EU countries, very different from each other in location, size, culture, nature of economy yadda yadda, and they can all be said to have input in making EU laws. If we made all our laws ourselves then we can make sure that they are applicable to us, and if they aren't we can vote out whoever made them. So I object to all EU laws on principle.

Having 'input' isn't the same as making the laws ourselves.There are 650 UK constituencies, very different from each other in location, size, culture, nature of economy yadda yadda, and they can all be said to have input in making UK laws. If we made all our laws ourselves then we can make sure that they are applicable to our constituency, and if they aren't we can vote out whoever made them. So I object to all UK laws on principle.

 

[Trumpets]

Having 'input' isn't the same as making the laws ourselves.There are 650 UK constituencies, very different from each other in location, size, culture, nature of economy yadda yadda, and they can all be said to have input in making UK laws. If we made all our laws ourselves then we can make sure that they are applicable to our constituency, and if they aren't we can vote out whoever made them. So I object to all UK laws on principle.

And the EU dilutes your vote even further, so why do you want to remain in?

 

[Linkstrikesback]

And the EU dilutes your vote even further, so why do you want to remain in?

Pretty sure that was them playing devils advocate as to why the argument doesn't really hold water.

 

[Chinner]

I agree with the poster above. What do we need to do to get rid of all the musl.... Non-heritage Natives of the British Isles???????

 

[danowat]

So the guardians latest poll, done by telephone, now shows leave having a sharp rise and being ahead. That goes contrary to previous polls where telephone polling always shows a lead for remain.

That's worrying, to say the least - it seems to show that the refugee and immigration scaremongering is working. Hopefully it's just a one off poll, as otherwise things are looking grim for remain in the final 3 weeks...

I got poo-poo'd a few pages back for saying I felt there was a swing in opinion coming.