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Brexit |OT| UK Referendum on EU Membership - 23 June 2016

Did you vote for the side that is going to win?


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Maledict

Member
I'm voting Remain, but VAT MOSS is a solid example. Catastrophic effect on small UK businesses.

I might be wrong, but re VAT MOSS from what I have read:

1) It's a fairly simple concept, VAT payed at point of purchase rather than origin, designed to stop tax evasion.

2) It only applies to the sale of digital goods - nothing physical, and not digital services either (so designing someone a logo wouldn't count, selling a logo template would)

3) It doesn't apply to business sales, it's purely for consumer sales

4) If you sell through a market play (App store, etc) then it's already covered by the market place.

I mean, as a point of principle it makes sense, it applies to everyone across Europe equally, and it can't affect THAT many businesses surely given the physical aspect? (If you sold a pre-recorded training session online but offered tutorial assistance with it, it wouldn't count either).
 
I'm voting Remain, but VAT MOSS is a solid example. Catastrophic effect on small UK businesses.
99% of businesses will not be affected by this. Only if you sell your own digital goods to consumers outside your own country. Most digital sales will be by large companies (Amazon), through marketplaces (iOS, Android) or to other businesses (advertising services).


Also, if the UK leaves the EU, they can't randomly sell products in those countries, so they would still need to charge users tax there through the local VAT.
 

Coxy100

Banned
It's going to be fascinating to watch my country basically commit economic suicide in less than weeks time. Not only will it cause massive immediate harm; I the long run I honestly don't see how London maintains its position as a world city if we are outside Europe.

But don't worry, the 6836473938363 Turks who are currently invading Europe won't be able to come over!

You do realise London was a world city before we joined the EU trading block yes?
 

Maledict

Member
You do realise London was a world city before we joined the EU trading block yes?

No it wasn't. London was a dying city in the 60s and 70s, with a population on the decline. We've only just overtaken London's peak population figure from the early 20th century. London's place on the world stage as one of the worlds 2 "world class" cities is not something guaranteed in stone, and we already know that significant amounts of business will shift following a Brexit.

Go back 40 years and the idea that London would end up being one of the worlds capitals, far ahead of any other European city, and people would have thought you mad.
 

Coxy100

Banned
No it wasn't. London was a dying city in the 60s and 70s, with a population on the decline. We've only just overtaken London's peak population figure from the early 20th century. London's place on the world stage as one of the worlds 2 "world class" cities is not something guaranteed in stone, and we already know that significant amounts of business will shift following a Brexit.

Go back 40 years and the idea that London would end up being one of the worlds capitals, far ahead of any other European city, and people would have thought you mad.

We're the 5th most powerful economy at the moment - do you know what we were 40 years ago? (genuine question)

I'm undecided on whether to remain or leave - but I do find all of these economic reasons to stay slightly laughable...
 
No it wasn't. London was a dying city in the 60s and 70s, with a population on the decline. We've only just overtaken London's peak population figure from the early 20th century. London's place on the world stage as one of the worlds 2 "world class" cities is not something guaranteed in stone, and we already know that significant amounts of business will shift following a Brexit.

Go back 40 years and the idea that London would end up being one of the worlds capitals, far ahead of any other European city, and people would have thought you mad.

A dying city? What are you on about? London was probably the most vibrant and exciting city in the world in the 60s.
 
We're the 5th most powerful economy at the moment - do you know what we were 40 years ago? (genuine question)

I'm undecided on whether to remain or leave - but I do find all of these economic reasons to stay slightly laughable...
The EU is mostly a trade union. The economic benefits are the primary reason to be part of it.

A dying city? What are you on about? London was probably the most vibrant and exciting city in the world in the 60s.

Might be, but it got smaller and smaller until the 90s.


Doesn't tell the whole story of course.
 

2700

Unconfirmed Member
What do you guys think about the hedge fund spending £0.5m on doing exit polling? This almost certainly means we will know the result during the day of voting because if their exit polls point leave the pound will tumble. Will be strange.

Don't believe it has ever been done before in the UK. The BBC won't be able to speculate during the day through of course but the fx rate is available to see.

Will be interesting to see if moment in Sterling does predict the outcome accurately however I can think of a few reasons why it might not,

1. Exit polls for general elections are measured at carefully selected polling stations each time and more importantly the swing in vote share is the key metric rather than absolute level of support for each party. Without a previous result to work from there will be an added uncertainty to whatever a hedge fund's exit poll predicts.

2. Predicting the turnout and the how that turnout is distributed over the country will more difficult compared to a general election, again adding more uncertainty to the hedge fund's exit poll.

3. Multiple hedge funds have commissioned exit polls, I can see a scenario where differing poll results leading to movements in Sterling cancelling out or a time delay in poll results being fed back leading to marketing movements that don't tell you all that much.

4. Trading volume will be low on the day of the referendum, if anyone needs to exchange currency then the day of the referendum will be one to avoid. Even if a hedge fund believe they have the correct result the movement in Sterling they produce could be inconsequential.

5. Due to the uncertainty surrounding the whole referendum I think most speculators are likely to wait until a clearer picture starts to emerge.

Although after writing of all this, I will still be keeping a close eye on the movement of Sterling to see if there are any clues!
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
5. Due to the uncertainty surrounding the whole referendum I think most speculators are likely to wait until a clearer picture starts to emerge.

All other points are reasonable (although it should be much easier to poll a referendum than a FPTP system and turnout from elections can be used and adjusted with the voting intentions from all the polls in the last months) except for this one.

They wouldn't be speculators if they wait for a clearer picture because at that point everybody has the clearer picture.
 

Maledict

Member
Sorry, I should have been clearer. In terms of culture obviously London was incredibly influential during the 60s. But in terms of population, and economic impact, London took off after we joined the EU and the big bang in the 80s. It's continued strength comes partly from being the EU and acting as the gateway to international finance. We already know numerous companies have indicated they would have to move should Brexit occur. Leaving the EU would absolutely damage London as one of the two world finance hubs.
 

2700

Unconfirmed Member
All other points are reasonable (although it should be much easier to poll a referendum than a FPTP system and turnout from elections can be used and adjusted with the voting intentions from all the polls in the last months) except for this one.

They wouldn't be speculators if they wait for a clearer picture because at that point everybody has the clearer picture.
Fair point, like most people I do tend to underestimate how opportunistic speculators can be compared to us risk-averse mortals!
 
Sorry, I should have been clearer. In terms of culture obviously London was incredibly influential during the 60s. But in terms of population, and economic impact, London took off after we joined the EU and the big bang in the 80s. It's continued strength comes partly from being the EU and acting as the gateway to international finance. We already know numerous companies have indicated they would have to move should Brexit occur. Leaving the EU would absolutely damage London as one of the two world finance hubs.

Ah fair enough, I can't really argue with population numbers etc. but for music and fashion "Swinging London" was the place to be back then. It just felt like an odd turn of phrase :)
 

Coxy100

Banned
Sorry, I should have been clearer. In terms of culture obviously London was incredibly influential during the 60s. But in terms of population, and economic impact, London took off after we joined the EU and the big bang in the 80s. It's continued strength comes partly from being the EU and acting as the gateway to international finance. We already know numerous companies have indicated they would have to move should Brexit occur. Leaving the EU would absolutely damage London as one of the two world finance hubs.

Ok - but it's not all all about London is it. The UK as a whole was still a top 6 economy back in the 60's / 70's if the info I'm reading on wiki is correct - so I would hardly say joining the EU has 'saved' us or anything - we were fine then - so why wouldn't we be fine now?

How do other countries manage to survive outside of the EU?
 

Maledict

Member
Ah fair enough, I can't really argue with population numbers etc. but for music and fashion "Swinging London" was the place to be back then. It just felt like an odd turn of phrase :)

If you read articles from the time, there were lots of serious people talking about London (and to a lesser extent New York) being in a constant state of decline, and that this represented a natural change in how large cities worked. Was also tied up in the slow but steady rise in crime in cities that didn't stop until the mid-90s. It was also tied into the end of Empire for the UK, and the shrinking of the UK as a world power.

It's totally foreign to me now living in London as it is today, but apparently was a real thing back then.
 

Maledict

Member
Ok - but it's not all all about London is it. The UK as a whole was still a top 6 economy back in the 60's / 70's if the info I'm reading on wiki is correct - so I would hardly say joining the EU has 'saved' us or anything - we were fine then - so why wouldn't we be fine now?

How do other countries manage to survive outside of the EU?

I'm talking about London though specifically. London is now one of the two generally recognised "world cities", which it wasn't back then. Leaving the EU would absolutely damage that.

(I think London's rise is a two fold thing - joining the EU was part of it, as was Thatchers Big Bang in the 80s).
 
Under this scheme do they lose right to vote in their country of origin when they gain the right to vote in their country of residence? Because that's really what this boils down to. Ultratruman above thinks his parents should get to vote in UK elections and elections of their country of origin. I don't think that's fair, I don't to get to vote in elections in Slovakia, and nor should I.

I agree everyone votes where they live. simples
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
If you read articles from the time, there were lots of serious people talking about London (and to a lesser extent New York) being in a constant state of decline, and that this represented a natural change in how large cities worked. Was also tied up in the slow but steady rise in crime in cities that didn't stop until the mid-90s. It was also tied into the end of Empire for the UK, and the shrinking of the UK as a world power.

It's totally foreign to me now living in London as it is today, but apparently was a real thing back then.

The population figures are very much influenced by slum clearances, and by the New Towns outside London's boundaries, and the rail services that went with them. Also the docks moving out of London itself. I suspect that the population that *worked* in London went up even as the resident population went down.

After WWII the only major European capitals relatively unscathed by bombing and land war were London, because Hitler never got there, and Paris because Hitler liked it. London had the advantage of speaking English as transatlantic traffic shifted from boats to planes, so was almost bound to come out top. Nothing to do with the EU membership (which at the time was very much seen as a local thing), but plenty to do with the Big Bang later on. The dodgy relationship between Eisenhower and De Gaulle didn't help the French a bundle either.
 

Beefy

Member
So if we do leave the EU. What do you guys think about the Australian style immigration system they are looking to bring in?
 

Hasney

Member
So if we do leave the EU. What do you guys think about the Australian style immigration system they are lookimg to bring in?

Well that would likely hurt any inital trade negotation with the EU given that they like to use freedom of movement as a barganing chip.
 
I have yet to see any kind of coherent argument other than immigration coming out of Leave. I don't think Australia should be an example for anyone, given that they're the worst kind of nanny state and they treat asylum seekers utterly deplorably. Didn't the security guards at one of the Australian migrant camps abuse the migrants or something? A civilized country shouldn't follow Australia's lead at all.
 
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1006858

systematic torture according to the UN. And the obsession over not letting migrants reach dry land has literally resulted in the gov sending migrants to die.

Jesus fucking Christ, they are scum. But our culture and values need protection! Sad thing is that most people will justify such abuses because they aren't citizens and are fair game, and if they don't want to be tortured don't come here.
 

Moozo

Member
So if we do leave the EU. What do you guys think about the Australian style immigration system they are looking to bring in?
This is already in place for non-EU migrants. Of which there were more of than EU migrants last year. So it will probably make fuck all difference.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
I'm voting Remain, but VAT MOSS is a solid example. Catastrophic effect on small UK businesses.

Yes, that's a very good example.

99% of businesses will not be affected by this. Only if you sell your own digital goods to consumers outside your own country. Most digital sales will be by large companies (Amazon), through marketplaces (iOS, Android) or to other businesses (advertising services).

You might be surprised. A lot of independent craftsmen/craft traders/needleworkers etc etc sell patterns and tutorial materials through their own websites. VAT MOSS is an absolute pain in the neck for all of them - and this is just my own sector. Add onto that various independent designers & self-publishing authors and you get a lot more. The whole thing is a shambles and a nightmare to deal with.

However, it is worth remembering where the whole thing came from. Essentially it is because of Amazon funnelling sales through Luxembourg to reduce the amount of VAT they had to pay back, in the same sort of way that Google funnels sales through Ireland to reduce corporation tax liability.

There are various ways of dealing with this, but the obvious ones are all bad. You could standardise VAT everywhere in the EU (which is overreaching, and doesn't respect local tax subtleties, and doesn't respect subsidiarity and incidentally fucks Luxembourg), or you could change the VAT structure so that VAT on digital sales is paid as in the country of purchase rather than the country of sale (which is a huge fucking nightmare for non-multinationals as they'd have to register for VAT in every country where they have customers, so you'd simplify it a bit and say that the VAT at the correct rate can be recovered locally and then redistributed and call it VAT MOSS which is still a huge fucking nightmare because some countries have and some haven't got a registration threshold for VAT, so you get the horror of having to recover VAT from a German customer and pay it through HMRC while being unable to recover VAT because you are not registered etc etc.)

You get the idea. It's awful. So a lot of people have just stopped selling - in what is supposedly a free market.

Huh.

It affects gamers too. For example, if I wanted to monetize that FAQ I wrote for Endless Ocean I would have do this whole VAT palaver across every EU country. Awful. Even though there is no requirement for me as an individual to register here for VAT at all.

What they should have done is to tackle the problem where the problem is. And the problem is with cheating ("tax enterprise") by multinationals. Sure, make the multinationals do this whole bothersome regime, but exclude from it every business that is solely domiciled in one country. Namely, if the business is registered, and has all its premises, and all of its employees in one EU country, then it is only liable for VAT in that country.

But I don't think this is particularly a problem with the EU - because if the UK government wanted to do something similar to address the Amazon/Luxembourg problem, they would probably have done something almost exactly the same as the EU has done.

Sorry for the rant guys. As a small businessman, this is really irritating.

I'm still voting to Remain though.

So if we do leave the EU. What do you guys think about the Australian style immigration system they are looking to bring in?

As an experiment I tried filling in the Australian thing on workpermit.com.

They wouldn't let me in. Even if I were young enough to pass the first question they still wouldn't let me in.

And if they wouldn't let me in (who would immeasurably improve their cultural life amongst other things), then there's something wrong.
 

Beefy

Member
EU debate on c4 news, woman from the CBI who wants to stay in, used the argument that bankers want us to stay in - not doing your side any favours.
 

danowat

Banned
EU debate on c4 news, woman from the CBI who wants to stay in, used the argument that bankers want us to stay in - not doing your side any favours.

Yup, I had heard it numerous times now from people I know, "only rich people want to stay in the EU"
 

Uzzy

Member
EU debate on c4 news, woman from the CBI who wants to stay in, used the argument that bankers want us to stay in - not doing your side any favours.

We can't piss off the masters of the universe, they'll cripple our economy and cause a recession. Deliberately this time, as opposed to all those other times when it was just a coincidental accident.
 

Izuna

Banned
Thoughts on Corbyn's speech today? I thought it was pretty good, managing to balance a pro-EU message with demanding reform and attacking the more outlandish claims from both the Tory-Remain camp and Tory-Leave camp.

But my feed is already taking the media's headlines on his speech to mean that we should leave and elect a new government at the same time.

=|

EDIT: guys, please register to vote by 7th June...
 

hodgy100

Member
^^ i should get my postal vote through the letterbox soon :)

Thoughts on Corbyn's speech today? I thought it was pretty good, managing to balance a pro-EU message with demanding reform and attacking the more outlandish claims from both the Tory-Remain camp and Tory-Leave camp.

whats this? Corbyn is showing yet another example of his nuanced opinions on topics and how things aren't all as black and white as the media likes to make things.

how long till this gets horribly corrupted and spun to "corbyns says EU needs reform, vote leave"
 

Bold One

Member
There is so much mis-information, so many half truths and straight up fiction regarding what the EU is and how it works, I don't expect this election to bode well for the people.
 

danowat

Banned

Beggars belief that they can write an entire article based on hearsay and anecdotal evidence, nothing concrete at all, just a load of "I know a bloke who know's a bloke"

Then again, this is the British press we are talking about.

Edit : some of the comments are gold, especially the ones saying polling stations are being moved to Mosques.
 

Hasney

Member
Beggars belief that they can write an entire article based on hearsay and anecdotal evidence, nothing concrete at all, just a load of "I know a bloke who know's a bloke"

Then again, this is the British press we are talking about.

Yeah, it's the Daily Express, not the Daily Accurate.

And one journalist revealed he knows of “Germans and Poles” who have also received their polling cards in the post and asked on Twitter if anyone else had heard of any instances.

I wonder if one journalist just mis-heard someone talking about the "polls".

Edit : some of the comments are gold, especially the ones saying polling stations are being moved to Mosques.

Mine actually is in a mosque!

...

Like it has been every election since I've lived here. Hopefully there's no stations in churches!
 
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