I really can't imagine you would go that route. It would involve going against most things leave has campaigned on, and you'd be far worse off than you are now due to having no say in things anymore.
Brexit |OT| UK Referendum on EU Membership - 23 June 2016
- Thread starter QuicheFontaine
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I really can't imagine you would go that route. It would involve going against most things leave has campaigned on, and you'd be far worse off than you are now due to having no say in things anymore.
Linkstrikesback
Member
Well, yeah. If there's one thing I'm sure of from the past few years about the conservative party, it's that theyre very good at redirecting blame.
If you're referring to the clip from a 2010 interview that's been round Facebook recently, then it was taken out of context. He was warning of violence from the general public, not encouraging it.
I hate the guy, but we shouldn't make stuff up. Not your fault I know, I was briefly misled by the same clip.
ferrasvansen
Member
I think David Cameron will quit, just a gut feeling he wouldn't want to be dragged into the mire and blame game after a leave vote. He will get blamed enough for calling the referendum, never mind the potential fallout afterwards, I reckon Boris Johnson will be PM within a month or two and an election will be called for October, since leave have zero chance of passing legislation in the commons and Lords.
That's how they do it - Donald trump does the same. Talk about how awful things are, talk about how badly people are treated, talk about how no-one listens to them and then warn that if nothing changes violence may happen.
That's the classic playbook - you don't tell people to commit violence, you talk about the conditions that you feel would create it and focus on those. It sends a clear message that violence is acceptable under those circumstances.
I agree about DC quitting, I just don't see BJ or Gove going for it since they know how bad it will be, even if it is temporarily. They'll only get a few years as they'll be blamed.
Not sure who would be PM. May?
Ah, fair enough. Yeah, that clip is him clearly saying violence is right once politics has failed, but I guess something before or after clarifies it's a warning.
Totally. They probably weighed up how many votes he could cost the campaign and brought him in as their fall guy.
I can't imagine a scenario where a majority of pro-leave MPs inhabits the Commons - even after a general election. Where would they come from? I don't think the whips would work in this case.
Ah Christ, we're going to have another referendum on that aren't we? There will be a ton of pressure from businesses to remain in the free market versus that of large sections of the Leave campaign and the public.to be completely out.
To be honest, in a situation where democracy has failed, which I think he was describing, I don't disagree. But he has his vote now, so it's no longer relevant.
ferrasvansen
Member
Yep but for sure they will try to purge the pro EU members in the tory party, it won't work but they will try.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Maybe Brexit will lead to an attempt to renegotiate by EFTA countries? If the UK left and was joined in negotiations with Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and possibly Holland and Denmark, that would be quite a formidable bloc with a decent amount of leverage.
ClosingADoor
Member
We should call it EU 2 and try for close integration to make trade and movement easier.
What should be negotiated by it then?
Sorting out the UKs position in two years is flat out impossible, adding in six other countries who don't have that time pressure is simply not happening, on any level, at all. Plus there's a good chance the people in those countries would want a referendum on any fundamental change to their nature wth the EU?
Like it or not, when we vote for leave we are out, and either we accept the Eu rules and regulations (including immigration) for access to the single market, or we don't and we blow our economy up with a fiscal nuke. Ultimately those are the only realistic prospects available to us with a leave vote.
EU2: EU Harder
Holland and Denmark would have to leave first, and the rest of the EU won't be making it easy for anyone else to leave
Nah - leave have gone to great lengths to keep him out of it, including setting up the alternative, official, leave org to try and delegitimise him. However, his diet racism and banter makes for good press and their plan hasn't quite worked.
Imagine if Gove and Johnson hadn't decided to go for out - the entire referendum would be on farage...
That too seems extremely unlikely to me. These negotiations would be a lengthy process, and the EU has absolutely every incentive not to concede on issues like immigration. NL also does not have a law for a binding referendum, and the only strong support for fully leaving the EU that I can see in parliament comes from the PVV, which despite polling as the largest party, would get 37 out of 150 seats if there were elections now. Unless a non-binding referendum would show a large majority for leave (which seems unlikely at best), NL leaving the EU does not seem likely at all. There are also more severe economic consequences for NL with it being extremely dependent on exports and a Eurozone country.
I can't speak for Denmark. That said, if the UK votes to leave, any other countries that might eventually do so won't be doing so the next day. All that time is time the UK can not afford to waste waiting and hoping other countries will join its negotiating bloc. The current EFTA countries will be hesitant to tie their deals to that of the UK, because they right now have deals that more or less work for them, even if they're not necessarily perfect.
Edit: Checked around, while several parties here in NL are quite critical of the EU, they all feel that being constructive and improving the EU is better in the long term than leaving it. Only the PVV feels leaving is a good idea. Which isn't surprising when you consider their last electoral manifesto was titled "Their Brussels, our Netherlands".
QuicheFontaine
Member
Trader Bros?
I don't really know what would be negotiated - I literally just came up with the idea! - but one thing I do see written a lot is "you'll be like Norway and Switzerland, having to comply with the rules but having no say in them".
First off, EFTA members do get a chance to have a say in EU rules. There is a mechanism for it.
Secondly, whenever I hear that argument, I can't help but think Norway and Switzerland can't be very happy with this arrangement can they? So maybe if there's a few big countries on the outside of the EU we can club together for exemptions / opt outs / reductions in contributions, etc?
Edit:
I actually don't know if two countries can even activate Art. 50 at the same time...
Tell that to the United States...
ClosingADoor
Member
Because we are talking unions that are supposed to last for generations and span dozens of countries. Just having countries coming and leaving from time to time creates major problems for all.
ferrasvansen
Member
Yeah I second that, it's been great and I've enjoyed the banter and laughter. Sure folk disagree and maybe wind some people up, but it's all in good spirits.
At the end of the day, despite our political differences, us just being "here" means we all share something in common.
anonymous_abc
Member
Consolewarz?
Exactly, we can get back to that once this referendum is over.
PJV3
Member
The knowledge that Barm cake is the correct term for a certain type of bread good.
Fuck me I can not help myself
David Cameron clearly broke purdah rules
No way that crap out of his mouth was nothing more than a pure desperate attempt to win over voters, I predict a private poll put leave in the lead
This is the Scottish Referendum all over again desperate politicians saying anything to win gullible people over, clearly using no10 as a back drop to show some resemblance of trust and authority!
Utter tosh...he is desperate, Because a hastily-arranged statement outside No 10 is always a sign that things are just tickety-boo
milanbaros
Member?
I feel like this in this thread
and for that reason I am going to take my leave, it is like wading through mud where any viewpoint against a fake utopia being promised is round upon
We are now at a point where experts for the remain camp can make all these wonderful flower filled promises about how your life will be so much better staying in....(of course it will for them) but the unwillingness to listen to any viewpoint based on the same conjecture as your so called experts is shouted down if it disagrees with them, you can not have it both ways you know.
some other leave voter can take up the mantel
Good luck on Friday, lets hope we vote leave, I wont be replying anymore
Good riddance. I love a good parting post.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Guess who's back.
Back again.
Tak3n's back.
Who's that quote from?
Edit:
You may have spoken a wee bit too soon!
Back again.
Tak3n's back.
Who's that quote from?
Edit:
You may have spoken a wee bit too soon!
Like your so called experts, I did not predict the future correctly
I'm back baby, get your bitching ready, and thanks for the compliment, I to thought it was a cracker
SuperEpicMan
Banned
Does anyone think a poll here would be a good idea?, I would be interested to see how it splits.
milanbaros
Member?
Haha, was just waiting for you to crumble then respond to your exit, right after.
Skellig Gra
Member
Forgot the vote is this week. Hoping the Remain vote wins out.
Not really, I see it as a good thing. You want a strong alliance that doesn't bend to the political flavor of the month.
Not really, I see it as a good thing. You want a strong alliance that doesn't bend to the political flavor of the month.
QuicheFontaine
Member
We tried that a while back. It split massively to Remain, about 80-20 if I remember rightly.
OverBlood 3
Banned
Oops
The Elite
BOSS
That's got to be the shortest flounce in history ;-)
nope, it is purdah...it was a deliberate desperate act, we really needed a hastily called statement to say what exactly?
he said nothing we did not all ready know, you can not tell me that was not a move of panic?
yeah, like romance with the wife, it is over almost as soon as it begun
FlammableD
Banned
QuicheFontaine
Member
It was originally billed as a "significant statement". Like, it looked like he was going to announce something. But then he really didn't, and just said hey please vote Remain guys.
PJV3
Member
It's the PM outside number 10, it won't change a thing. He could he panicking, I don't know.
Osbourne threats......did not work
New world war threat.... did not work
The world will implode.....did not work
The rich honestly want what is best for you promise.....did not work
One million experts who somehow failed to predict the financial crash of 2008 threat...did not work
ok advisor's I am desperate,the poor wont listen, what should I do? can we ignore their votes and only let the wealthy choose?
Oh fuck it, let me tell them they are about to fuck over their children
Wrestlemania
Banned
Tak3n's exit was as successful a divorce from the thread as any potential UK split from the EU will be.
To address your parting rant Tak3n - no one claims that remain will leave us in an EU utopia, it just seems like the best of the 2 choices that lie before us. Look at the way the pound has strengthened against the Euro and Dollar in the last week based on predictions that we'll stay. Look at the how the FTSE gained £47 billion yesterday based on the same predictions. These "experts" aren't trying to pull the wool over our eyes. Remain is clearly better for us and our economy.
I respect your right to an opinion but I really don't undsrstand how people presented with the facts can still think leave is the better option.
Edit: also, your stance on this page that Remain appear to be on the back foot and shitting themselves is proposterous. Those financial changes I mentioned above didn't happen for nothing. The bookies aren't offering the odds they are right now on leave/remain based on blind hope. Things are looking stronger than they have in weeks for remain, even if it's still not a done deal
I respect your right to an opinion but I really don't undsrstand how people presented with the facts can still think leave is the better option.
Edit: also, your stance on this page that Remain appear to be on the back foot and shitting themselves is proposterous. Those financial changes I mentioned above didn't happen for nothing. The bookies aren't offering the odds they are right now on leave/remain based on blind hope. Things are looking stronger than they have in weeks for remain, even if it's still not a done deal
PJV3
Member
If we vote to stay in, can you get an EU flag avatar? Join us Tak3n.
please, never trust people who make money to tell you what is best, just think about it for a second
it was these same people who fucked you over without a blink of mercy in 2008, and now you want to trust these people again....
would you trust someone who just run you over, if he said, oh ok, I am sorry I wont do it again.....and remember the PM does not appear in a hastily arranged press conference outside no 10, if remain are a shoe in...
your saviour, just look at him all cuddly and shit...he is the true PM
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