CNN/ORC Poll: Trump 44%, Clinton 39%, Johnson 9%, Stein 3%

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Moff said:
07-minister.jpg

He has no chance for the nomination, Jeb Bush will make it.
Ok ok, he got the nomination, but no way minorities and women vote for him over Hillary.
Oooook, the polls favor him, but hey, it's a few months out, debates are still coming, and that's good, because reason is obviously what americans listen to.
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A poll. A single poll. Not polls.
 
Funky Papa said:
Failure is relative. It was a colossal success for a certain portion of the public that doesn't exercise their capacity for self-analysis and just want to be massaged.

"I am your voice" indeed.
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And these events occupy the whole media bandwidth through their run. That will always have a resulting spike in polls. Sound bytes and outrageous headlines will rally supporters.
 
Melkr_ said:
Morning Consult also has a big bump for Trump

44 (+5) to Clinton's 40.


http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/t...r-first-time-in-polls-history/article/2597534


😐😐😐😐😐😐😐😐😐😐😐😐😐😐
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I'm tired from working an overnight so forgive me if I'm reading this incorrectly. Essentially this poll is saying that the bump is due to the republican vote consolidating, and that in this specific poll they had an increase in republicans who responded and a decrease in democrats who responded. Can someone double check that for me.
 
Even though this is bad news there is a small tinge of "I told you so" sincr the majority if GAF outright dismissed Trump's chances against Hilary especially back when polls were in their favor.
 
Epsilon-delta said:
You are. Logic and reason goes out the door every election cycle; elections are emotionally driven.
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Okay - so they're watching to get a 'feeling' of the candidates and make up their mind. If Trump projects a bully persona, it could either sway people to or away from him depending on Hillary's reaction. We saw that being complacent about that bullying (Jeb) was good for Trump, so Hillary needs to be strong and call him out on his shit? Man I don't know, politics are too fuckin much.
 
The times we've seen Trump's bullying backfire both involve women(Kelly and Carly), so I'm curious to see how it goes down when he's face-to-face with Hillary.
 
ApatheticDolphin said:
Okay - so they're watching to get a 'feeling' of the candidates and make up their mind. If Trump projects a bully persona, it could either sway people to or away from him depending on Hillary's reaction. We saw that being complacent about that bullying (Jeb) was good for Trump, so Hillary needs to be strong and call him out on his shit? Man I don't know, politics are too fuckin much.
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Nope because she's a woman. Also if she responds then she's being smug.
 
BokehKing said:
Trump was at his most popular when on stage ridiculing his opponents to their face. He has not done that in months, and honestly the trump hype has been tampered down since. If he gets on stage and starts talking smack to Hillary in a way most anti Hillary people wish they could, his numbers will rise again.
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Clinton : "You want us to treat minorities like they're second class citizens, you want to exile a whole religion, you want to torture people just like terrorists do, you want to destroy our relations with our allies, all you do is surrounded by hatred, violence, bigotry, pettiness and immaturity."

Trump : "Well you suck. Benghazi. Emails. You lie, you're crooked and nobody likes you. Ha!"

****

Later, in media polls : "This just in. Trump has a 15% lead on Clinton after their first debate."
 
Trump is like that school bully that always got what he wanted and telling on him to adults/teachers did nothing. He was that guy you had your first violent fantasies about.
 
therealist said:
Even though this is bad news there is a small tinge of "I told you so" sincr the majority if GAF outright dismissed Trump's chances against Hilary especially back when polls were in their favor.
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Why do people keep saying polls? This is not polls. This is a single poll from a single source. Poll. Not Polls. As someone else pointed out earlier, too, the demographic of this particular poll is unclear.
 
As much as I despise Hillary Clinton, she will get a convention bump too guys, don't think there's any need to worry for Clinton supporters yet.
 
Kathian said:
Lol with 2% and months to go for a candidate supposedly terrible and easy to defeat. Meanwhile the Dems conference is going to be overshadowed by a policy selection which will clearly not be uniting of the left.

When the left loses elections it's divided. The right doesn't have this issue as they will just unite behind what benefits them the most. Helps being White and having Trump as a leader. Thats a simple fact and the Dems need to get over themselves and start tackling the political reality and court the white working class vote.
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You mean court racist assholes? That's what Trump is doing.
 
We can't let him win. Please vote! I fear for my young biracial niece as well as my gay and non white friends living in a Trump world.
 
Well, lets not freak out just yet. Come September if he is still polling like that, sure. But the DNC hasn't even started. Obama alone when he gives his speech will ether Trump.
 
Blueliner said:
As much as I despise Hillary Clinton, she will get a convention bump too guys, don't think there's any need to worry for Clinton supporters yet.
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I hate how reductive these kind of comments tend to be. It's less about worried Clinton supporters, and more about those who will be greatly effected by a Trump presidency. You don't need to be a Clinton supporter to be worried.
 
ApatheticDolphin said:
Okay - so they're watching to get a 'feeling' of the candidates and make up their mind. If Trump projects a bully persona, it could either sway people to or away from him depending on Hillary's reaction. We saw that being complacent about that bullying (Jeb) was good for Trump, so Hillary needs to be strong and call him out on his shit? Man I don't know, politics are too fuckin much.
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Trump knows Hillary can't do that because she's a woman. It would make her look smug, and Trump's supporters would take it as a slight.
 
RPGCrazied said:
Well, lets not freak out just yet. Come September if he is still polling like that, sure. But the DNC hasn't even started. Obama alone when he gives his speech will ether Trump.
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And this is just a single poll, anyway. When he starts polling like this consistently, from multiple sources, and he gets ahead in demographic based polls, then we need to start freaking out.
 
I hope they have Wi-Fi in the minority internment camp. I'm surprised the Cruz move backfired for him. I figured there would be some moderate Republicans who wanted to see someone not so willing to bend the knee.
 
Kathian said:
Lol with 2% and months to go for a candidate supposedly terrible and easy to defeat. Meanwhile the Dems conference is going to be overshadowed by a policy selection which will clearly not be uniting of the left.

When the left loses elections it's divided. The right doesn't have this issue as they will just unite behind what benefits them the most. Helps being White and having Trump as a leader. Thats a simple fact and the Dems need to get over themselves and start tackling the political reality and court the white working class vote.
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Nah the only way this is true is if Sanders pulls a Cruz. Don't expect that to happen. He's going to come out strong against Trump, and this story will be mostly forgotten. Hillary has already been putting in work. Her ground game has been up and running in all the key states for a long while now. She also has a vp who can reach out to the hispanic community. Which is going to be important for setting up the Democrats for the long term. Essentially all she has to do is win Florida. If she wins Florida Trump is fucked, and given the current demographics in Florida it's looking good. Trump has a much narrower chance of winning. He has start with Florida. If he can't win Florida he's sunk. He has to win Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Iowa for him to have a chance. It's a tall order.

FlammableD said:
Go read a pre Brexit thread.

Full of Brexit will never happen, it's only one poll...
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UK != US. The demographics are completely different. Also, as far as I understand it polling in the U.K is not nearly as reliable as it is in the U.S., but someone can correct me on that one if I'm wrong.

Edit: My bad I used a programming language syntax. != means not equals. My bad.
 
Blueliner said:
As much as I despise Hillary Clinton
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Here is the problem.

As dumb as Trump supporters are, and they are pretty darn dumb and scary, people who don't support him but are still trying to drag down Hillary are far more idiotic.

Expect the polls to pick up again once she is officially the nominee, the republican convention boost wears off and at least some of the left wing supporters get over themselves.

Or they don't and Trump wins.
 
Majine said:
Don't fuck this up, America....

This man is dangerous.
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Absolutely.

But Clinton is not much better.

And if on one side Trump is untested as politician, on the other side Clinton during her experience in the Obama administration has showed to be at least shady in her decisions and behaviour.

Looking from the other side of the Atlantic the choice seems to be in line with that famous south park episode.
 
As I said earlier, for everyone freaking the fuck out in the States, what are you gonna do about it?

Sorc3r3r said:
Absolutely.

But Clinton is not much better.

And if on one side Trump is untested as politician, on the other side Clinton during her experience in the Obama administration has showed to be at least shady in her decisions and behaviour.

Looking from the other side of the Atlantic the choice seems to be in line with that famous south park episode.
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Absolutely 1000000000000% wrong. There is indeed a world of difference between the two and anyone that thinks she's not much better is an utter moron. What a stupid fucking opinion. Anyone seriously evoking South Park politics isn't to be taken seriously.

And this is me trying to be polite right now.
 
Bisnic said:
Clinton : "You want us to treat minorities like they're second class citizens, you want to exile a whole religion, you want to torture people just like terrorists do, you want to destroy our relations with our allies, all you do is surrounded by hatred, violence, bigotry, pettiness and immaturity."

Trump : "Well you suck. Benghazi. Emails. You lie, you're crooked and nobody likes you. Ha!"

****

Later, in media polls : "This just in. Trump has a 15% lead on Clinton after their first debate."
Click to expand...
Pretty much how it will go down, because while Hillary says the above people will be rolling their eyes because they already don't trust her. Once king oompa loompa speaks people will hear him "calling her out" and that's where I think the bump comes from. Bernie easily flustered her, what do you think Trump would do?
 
Sorc3r3r said:
Absolutely.

But Clinton is not much better.

And if on one side Trump is untested as politician, on the other side Clinton during her experience in the Obama administration has showed to be at least shady in her decisions and behaviour.

Looking from the other side of the Atlantic the choice seems to be in line with that famous south park episode.
Click to expand...

She is so much better! This outlook is insane to me.
 
Sorc3r3r said:
Absolutely.

But Clinton is not much better.

And if on one side Trump is untested as politician, on the other side Clinton during her experience in the Obama administration has showed to be at least shady in her decisions and behaviour.

Looking from the other side of the Atlantic the choice seems to be in line with that famous south park episode.
Click to expand...

Oh God.
 
Sorc3r3r said:
Absolutely.

But Clinton is not much better.

And if on one side Trump is untested as politician, on the other side Clinton during her experience in the Obama administration has showed to be at least shady in her decisions and behaviour.

Looking from the other side of the Atlantic the choice seems to be in line with that famous south park episode.
Click to expand...

This isn't even remotely true. Clinton is far superior to Trump, and it's not even debatable.
 
boiled goose said:
The most ironic thing is that main argument of Hillary supporters here on GAF in her favor was that she would be a better candidate at stopping Trump than Bernie.

This was suggested time and time again in spite of polls showing the opposite. What happened when nate silver chose punditry over polling to make predictions?

Still early so let's hope this is temporary... but holy shit this is terrifying.
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Hillary was always a worse candidate against Trump because she has 30 years of negativity built up against her. Only the most die-hard Hildawgz would fail to understand that. Hillary is such a known commodity that there is nothing she can do to change the public's perspective of her.

Bernie was a "new" politician at least in the public's mind and was out with a populist message in a populist election.
 
Brinbe said:
As I said earlier, for everyone freaking the fuck out in the States, what are you gonna do about it?



Absolutely 1000000000000% wrong. There is indeed a world of difference between the two and anyone that thinks she's not much better is an utter moron. What a stupid fucking opinion. Anyone seriously evoking South Park politics isn't to be taken seriously.

And this is me trying to be polite right now.
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Thanks for calling me a moron.

rotfl.
 
FlammableD said:
Go read a pre Brexit thread.

Full of Brexit will never happen, it's only one poll...
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Sure. But we live in a post brexit world now. everybody knows a Trump victory is possible and whoever is against that won't ease up on their efforts to fight it. There won't be any complacency.
 
Sorc3r3r said:
Absolutely.

But Clinton is not much better.
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How can anyone believe this?

Clinton will not ban Muslims from entering the country. She has no designs on dissolving the EPA. She intends to honor NATO agreements. She doesn't want to build a wall on the southern border. She isn't racist. She isn't homophobic. She isn't cozying up to Russia.

Do I need to go on?
 
toddhunter said:
Here is the problem.

As dumb as Trump supporters are, and they are pretty darn dumb and scary, people who don't support him but are still trying to drag down Hillary are far more idiotic.

Expect the polls to pick up again once she is officially the nominee, the republican convention boost wears off and at least some of the left wing supporters get over themselves.

Or they don't and Trump wins.
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I don't like Trump nor Hillary, lets go ahead and broad brush everybody who doesn't support/dislikes HIllary Clinton as idiotic.. really?
 
It's not even about the polling, it's about the complacency and assumption that We're too smart, and that will never happen.

It can. We weren't smart enough. And it will happen if it's not properly dealt with.

Corto said:
Sure. But we live in a post brexit world now. everybody knows a Trump victory is possible and whoever is against that won't ease up on their efforts to fight it. There won't be any complacency.
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I really hope so, but I'm not seeing it.
 
FlammableD said:
Go read a pre Brexit thread.

Full of Brexit will never happen, it's only one poll...
Click to expand...

The vote for US presidency works completely different.

In theory, Trump could win like 55% of the votes in the country and still lose.

We also have a hundred years of polling trends to study, and demographics to look at.
 
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