CNN/ORC Poll: Trump 44%, Clinton 39%, Johnson 9%, Stein 3%

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Overall it doesn't matter who has the percentages. It matters who has the percentages in the swings states.

It's embarrassing that the Cheeto Jesus had an upswing but that comes with media exposure.



The scarier thing is he is about to get his inner circle security briefs with America's top.secret infos.
 
gamechanger87 said:
Unfortunately she needs to come up with a good pitch beyond saying Vote for Me because I'm not Drumpf. She needs those voters that are currently voting third-party. Her job is to convince them that she will be a good steward for the country and that they should want to vote for her.

Her biggest concern has to be an enthusiasm gap between her base level support and Drumpfs. To GOTV she needs to have a lot of people motivated and willing to vote for her.
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I think we can criticize her while still voting for her. I am not at all happy with how war happy the left wing is. Nor am I happy with where they are on LGBT rights. Same situation with the economy. But they at least have started to move more to the left as time has moved on. I can only hope they move more to the left. And of course do what I can to push them that way as well.

A vote for a third party does nothing til the third party actually gets enough support to override one of the other two parties. In an instance like that I would vote 3rd party in a second. I don't care for the way I've been treated by Democrats through the years but it's them or the party that wants to throw me into conversion therapy/put me in jail just for being me.

A vote for Drumpf enables extremist nationalist, racist, misygonistic, homophobic, transphobic, anti-science, etc. etc. policies to be put in place. The Republican platform this year is their most extremist far right it's ever been. Not to mention the SC would be extremely conservative for decades, ruining generations of future lives and any progressive advances. I don't like Hillary's position on a few issues that are very key to me (her supporters I tend to like even less) but my other options are throwing my vote away or to actively vote for the party that wants to ruin millions of lives. My own included in there. I'm not willing to play that game. I'd rather work on changing the Democrat party to focus on more progressive values than they currently do.
 
Spiritreaver said:
I don't mean to be a downer, but this is from 2014 not 2012. It was to see if Romney would be a good candidate in this election.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/07/27/cnn-poll-romney-tops-obama-but-loses-to-clinton/

I was going to post it on GAF as well this morning, but realized the mistake.

yyyyyy-poll.png
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Good call, missed that. It's tough to find graphics from past polls.
 
Bernie supporters remind me of the jurors in the OJ case , "It's not our fault he was acquitted, the prosecution did a bad job!". Guess what, if Trump wins, it really will be your fault.
 
BotoxAgent said:
wait that's never been her pitch....she's been making her policy case. But she does need to step it up in terms of bringing out the rhetorical fangs.
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Let me clarify. She's obviously been making her policy pitch, but the big motivation she is using to try and GOTV is vote for me because Trump will be really bad for XYZ reasons. In terms of motivating large swaths of voters that isn't very effective. Pitching "Make America Great Again" to a large swath of voters that feel left behind is better than saying "America is still great"
 
Crisco said:
Bernie supporters remind me of the jurors in the OJ case , "It's not our fault he was acquitted, the prosecution did a bad job!". Guess what, if Drumpf wins, it really will be your fault.
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I heavily prefer Bernie and I'm not voting Drumpf. Stop enabling the "Bernie v. Hillary shit" and realize the majority of Bernie supporters are supporting Hillary. Hell, they came in larger droves for Hillary already than Hillary supporters did for Obama in 08.
 
I still really love that all of the Trump supporters seem to lean on the "He's not really serious about this" defense for terrible shit. So Trump is great if you don't believe 90% of what he says, but Hillary is terrible because you don't believe 90% of what she says? Ok.

Ekai said:
I heavily prefer Bernie and I'm not voting Drumpf. Stop enabling the "Bernie v. Hillary shit" and realize the majority of Bernie supporters are supporting Hillary. Hell, they came in larger droves for Hillary already than Hillary supporters did for Obama in 08.
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If you're doing the logical thing it's pretty obvious they're not talking about you with stuff like this. I was personally a huge Bernie supporter, but at this point I'm pretty pissed at a lot of other Bernie supporters for their shit. Not all of them, obviously, but enough.
 
Now more than ever, the Democrats need to push for voter turnout. Push that Trump's Platform is harmful to everyone, educated, immigrant or not. Push that human rights are on the line with the Supreme Court nominations. People have to be drilled into their heads just what is at stake here, because if Trump Wins, the Republicans have an extremely strong chance at full reign of the government and will have prevailing influence for decades. And considering what the Republican Platform is right now, could be disasterous for domestic and foreign affairs for generations.
 
Calm down everyone. This happens all of the time. Just go look through our history as it pertains to this subject. Just wait until we get closer.
 
GiantEnemyGoomba said:
Yeah, and looking at RCP, there was not really a noticeable Romney bump between the RNC and DNC in 2012.
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I think I read somewhere that CNN hasn't had a convention bump in their polls over the past few cycles.

The bounce is back.

Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups.

There hasn't been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN's polling since 2000. That year Al Gore and George W. Bush both boosted their numbers by an identical 8 points post-convention before ultimately battling all the way to the Supreme Court.
National polls don't have a large enough sample to accurately reflect the state of play in key battlegrounds, and there is little information thus far on how Trump's convention performance has affected the presidential race state-by-state.
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Maledict said:
The fact that dumpster fire of a convention could increase Trumps support is depressing as fuck.
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Fear-mongering is a powerful tool.

As much of a circus the RNC was, people who underestimate Trump's ability to win or think that Clinton is a sure-win are being naive.

That said, as usual, it's still early for accurate polls.
 
Ekai said:
I heavily prefer Bernie and I'm not voting Drumpf. Stop enabling the "Bernie v. Hillary shit" and realize the majority of Bernie supporters are supporting Hillary. Hell, they came in larger droves for Hillary already than Hillary supporters did for Obama in 08.
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It's hard with stuff like this happening

CoN2UdgW8AAE7Sn.jpg


Though I usually try to differentiate between Bernie supporters and busters when I talk about this stuff.
 
Crisco said:
Bernie supporters remind me of the jurors in the OJ case , "It's not our fault he was acquitted, the prosecution did a bad job!". Guess what, if Trump wins, it really will be your fault.
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Nah, it'll be the fault of people like you. Far too much arrogance amongst Clinton, her supporters and the Democratic party as a whole. You can't skate by on "Republicans are scary, amirite." For too long.

Stop trying to make excuses for immensely privileged politicians. Their failures are their own.
 
gamechanger87 said:
Let me clarify. She's obviously been making her policy pitch, but the big motivation she is using to try and GOTV is vote for me because Drumpf will be really bad for XYZ reasons. In terms of motivating large swaths of voters that isn't very effective. Pitching "Make Donald Drumpf Again" to a large swath of voters that feel left behind is better than saying "America is still great"
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So you're just going to dismiss all the extremely harmful policies that the right-wing wishes to enact? Especially with the SC on the line? Any progressive ideal is going to be stopped for decades. If you at all prefer left-wing ideals, Hillary is the best option we got. It's not my preferred candidate either but it's better than anything else. She's not perfect by any stretch but she still at least pushes some left-wing ideals forward. I am concerned about things staying at the status-quo, as I very much hate the status-quo, but it's either the status-quo, or the country gets pulled back to the 50s and embraces fascism on the level of Hitler.

If you still plan to vote 3rd party or Drumpf, I'll blame you when they throw me in conversion therapy. IE: Literal torture for LGBT individuals. It's in their party platform, for Christ's sake.
 
JustenP88 said:
Nah, it'll be the fault of people like you. Far too much arrogance amongst Clinton, her supporters and the Democratic party as a whole. You can't skate by on "Republicans are scary, amirite." For too long.

Stop trying to make excuses for immensely privileged politicians. Their failures are their own.
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Not even a thing.
 
Interfectum said:
That was the first debate. No one cared about that after the Obama destroyed him in the end.
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Right but they sure cared after the first debate. Polls had them at a dead heat afterward while Obama went into it at least 5 points ahead, closest they had been all election.

This time last election Obama had about a 1% lead in opinion polling. Point is this stuff is just volatile and especially tough to predict with this particular election. I wouldn't get all tied up in what you're seeing right now.
 
RDreamer said:
I still really love that all of the Trump supporters seem to lean on the "He's not really serious about this" defense for terrible shit. So Trump is great if you don't believe 90% of what he says, but Hillary is terrible because you don't believe 90% of what she says? Ok.



If you're doing the logical thing it's pretty obvious they're not talking about you with stuff like this. I was personally a huge Bernie supporter, but at this point I'm pretty pissed at a lot of other Bernie supporters for their shit. Not all of them, obviously, but enough.
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They pick and choose what issues Trump is serious about. It's ludicrous. But they don't extend that same courtesy to Clinton. It's cognitive dissonance, the picking and choosing of what to believe in and ignore in a candidate to feel better about yourself.

Both candidates have flaws, but if you with even a shred of seriousness believe that Clinton's flaws are equivalent in detriment to the flaws of Trump, then you are too far gone. You are purposely ignoring reality because you have already made up your mind. You're pathetic.
 
The threat is real. I also think that the enthusiasm gap is really really dangerous, you can easily find dozens of example in the whole world where the reasonable side should have the win in the bag but still lost the voting.
 
Ekai said:
So you're just going to dismiss all the extremely harmful policies that the right-wing wishes to enact? Especially with the SC on the line? Any progressive ideal is going to be stopped for decades. If you at all prefer left-wing ideals, Hillary is the best option we got. It's not my preferred candidate either but it's better than anything else. She's not perfect by any stretch but she still at least pushes some left-wing ideals forward. I am concerned about things staying at the status-quo, as I very much hate the status-quo, but it's either the status-quo, or the country gets pulled back to the 50s and embraces fascism on the level of Hitler.

If you still plan to vote 3rd party or Drumpf, I'll blame you when they throw me in conversion therapy. IE: Literal torture for LGBT individuals. It's in their party platform, for Christ's sake.
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I'm not voting for Trump. Whether I hold my nose and go Hillary or go third-party, I haven't decided yet.

I'm speaking to her pitch and ability to motivate the general populace to vote.
 
JustenP88 said:
Nah, it'll be the fault of people like you. Far too much arrogance amongst Clinton, her supporters and the Democratic party as a whole. You can't skate by on "Republicans are scary, amirite." For too long.

Stop trying to make excuses for immensely privileged politicians. Their failures are their own.
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lol exactly what I said, blaming the prosecution.
 
Barack Lesnar said:
I...
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Like another poster said, you are just completely running on your 'intuition', thinking he will do the things that you are kindof drawn to, while thinking he will not do the things you find unappealing. If he is not sincere on some things, how do you know he is on others?

On 'many' Mexican immigrants being those things trump says - do you have any actual numbers? data? statistics? or again are you running on your 'intuition' that 'many' are 'probably' bad or getting into bad things because they are presumably poor and uneducated?

How would you propose rounding up 11 million illegal immigrants? How many resources do you dedicate towards this goal? How much time? You know the government already investigates and takes action on cases, right? What would be changed? Would it become a witch hunt? "Call 999-9999 to report someone you think is an illegal"?

On your belief that he will not try to claw back on things like marriage equality, etc. Remember that even if you presume trump will be nonchalant, not care either way and so not actually take action, he will not be the only person in government that can push for it. If trump wins, there will be a whole lot of Republicans (Tea Party or otherwise) in government who have and do push for things that you think trump won't bother with. The Supreme Court nominees put into place alone would fully still be able to reconsider these things without the personal involvement of trump. The President is not the instigator of everything they or the rest of government look at. Trump's nonchalant attitude would then be something that could allow a flood of terrible ideas, motions, laws, etc. to be put forth and passed by other people, even if he takes no active part. You can see a scenario like that already in the reporting that trump plans to leave everything to Pence, who is anti-LGBTQ.

Trump proposes vague goals and objectives left and right, changing them as he feels in the moment, like you have noticed. That is what you feel good voting for?
 
She still has my vote, my god I hope the democrat convention helps her image. Right now you have a insane human being with a message and a conventional boring choice who keeps looking worse and worse. Describe your student loan debt in 3 emojis, the trump facebook stuff, ect. I'm getting worried honestly I really am, she just was not the right pick for this election. Good news is this all can be fixed, she just has to really wow at this convention.

Geg said:
It's hard with stuff like this happening

CoN2UdgW8AAE7Sn.jpg


Though I usually try to differentiate between Bernie supporters and busters when I talk about this stuff.
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That's really all I can ask for, I feel kinda similar being a feminist in a world where people look at the nutjobs as speaking for the whole idea. It's frustrating, because you feel like your are standing for something you believe in but people really only see and hear the people who are the loudest and they are always the most dramatic. Also fuck screaming lock her up, I have my problems with her but she was always a fine candidate.
 
8 Years ago this country made history Electing the First African American President in our short history.

Now in less than 4 months, we have 2 simple choices, either embrace our racial diversity and sense of we the people of the United States be it white, black, asian, hispanic, gay lesbian or transgender, or we choose to send our country back 30 years to a time were it was unthinkable for a black man to run much less win the presidency, were being gay was a scarlet letter, were men dominated politics and women were seen as too emotional to hold high office.


The choice is clear. You may not agree with Clinton on things, hell I don't agree with her on a lot of things, but I have no doubt in my mind that she would make a good President and one that would maintain the progress made by Obama. I know for a fact that a Trump presidency would be a cataclysm the likes this country has never seen.
 
Crisco said:
lol exactly what I said, blaming the prosecution.
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You're too confident in that weak analogy. And likening the Clinton campaign to "the prosecution" is a pretty good demonstration of that arrogance I was talking about.
 
Neo C. said:
The threat is real. I also think that the enthusiasm gap is really really dangerous, you can easily find dozens of example in the whole world where the reasonable side should have the win in the bag but still lost the voting.
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Exactly. This has to be the biggest concern for her campaign. The enthusiasm gap is a real thing and I can't figure out how she will motivate people beyond attempting to scare them with a Trump presidency.

She is running a standard campaign in an environment that is incredibly favorable to populist candidates. Bernie/Trump would never had made waves unless the environment is ripe for it.
 
kingocfs said:
Right but they sure cared after the first debate. Polls had them at a dead heat afterward while Obama went into it at least 5 points ahead, closest they had been all election.

This time last election Obama had about a 1% lead in opinion polling. Point is this stuff is just volatile and especially tough to predict with this particular election. I wouldn't get all tied up in what you're seeing right now.
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Hell, CNN had them tied on election day.
 
I don't know much about politics, but isn't this pretty standard after a convention? Doesn't it stand to reason that Hillary will get similar bump after the DNC?
 
Barack Lesnar said:
So much of the things he says are in jest...he's incredibly sarcastic and off the cuff. We've never had a candidate like this before. He didn't use a teleprompter till recently...how crazy is that? It's unheard of. Again this is a "dangerous way to think" like the one person said above but my intuition tells me that "I'll pay his legal fees!!!" statement wasn't serious.
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Joking about it isn't any better. The point I'm trying to make is about the behaviour of Trump supporters - some of them are overtly racist and Trump is happy to tolerate it. He's even happy to take endorsements from KKK members. If Trump is in office, he may not make a single overtly racist statement or policy - but all the racists in America will feel emboldened, enabled to be racist. He didn't do anything about it at his rallies, so why would he do anything about it in office? Will he joke about it then?
 
gamechanger87 said:
I'm not voting for Drumpf. Whether I hold my nose and go Hillary or go third-party, I haven't decided yet.

I'm speaking to her pitch and ability to motivate the general populace to vote.
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Democrats don't give a shit about a third-party vote. They don't take it as a message if that's what you're trying to do. 3rd parties and minority voices are fucked over by the two party system and I hate that. But a vote for them doesn't send a message to Democrats. The only way Democrats will listen to any progressive ideal is if they are changed from within. They're slowly doing it. They aren't doing it anywhere near as quickly as I would like, but they're slowly doing it.

If you want motivation for the kind of people Hillary is bringing on with her, I'd suggest you watch Tim Kaine's speech that was this last Saturday and the Hillary/Kaine interview on 60 minutes. It's night and day the kind of personable atmosphere there is between the R/D.

Not to mention she has discussed what her platform is and discussed her policies in far more detail than Drumpf has ever done. Again, I may not like her positions as much either on some things. But for me it's either that or vote against my own self-interest and contribute to ruining millions of lives because the Democrats aren't as progressive as I want them to be.
 
gamechanger87 said:
I'm not voting for Trump. Whether I hold my nose and go Hillary or go third-party, I haven't decided yet.

I'm speaking to her pitch and ability to motivate the general populace to vote.
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A vote for anyone bar Hillary is a vote for Trump considering the margins.

I don't think I can stand the next 3 or so months. This is fucking draining and filling me with worry and dread and it's barely even started. Fuck me.
 
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