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[DontBeThatGuy]

One of the most annoying things about Trump's unusual candidacy is that so many people have taken that as license to ignore everything about past polling.



He absolutely wants the job. If nothing else, he wants the job because it's there and something he doesn't have.

He wants the job, so he can mostly hand it off to his VP. Remember Trumpsters, you're in all likelihood voting for Pence.

 

[Ithil]

One of the most annoying things about Drumpf's unusual candidacy is that so many people have taken that as license to ignore everything about past polling.



He absolutely wants the job. If nothing else, he wants the job because it's there and something he doesn't have.

He doesn't want the job, he wants the title.

 

[Square2015]

Question 7
If it were up to you, who would you rather see the Democratic Party choose as its nominee for president?
Base = Registered Democrats
Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error
Total Men Women White Non-White ----- ----- ----- ----- ---------
49% 52%
45% 41%
4% 3%
2% 3%
1% 1%
+/-5.0 +/-7.5
47% 49% 48% 43% 4% 5% 1% 2% * 1% +/-6.5 +/-6.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

49% Hillary
45% Bernie
Among registered Democrats.

...wow

 

[GiantEnemyGoomba]

https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/757575965681786880

These maps just don't make sense to me.

But I guess nothing about this election makes sense, so maybe there's no point in questioning it.

 

[EatinOlives]

Trump is gonna be your new president, USGAF. The sooner you accept that, the better.

I'm just here watching you guys go nuts when this happens.

I'm tempted to start a wall of shame because posts like these are just too good to be lost in the shuffle.

 

[Zaventem]

538 updated 19 hours ago have Hillary still in the lead though:

[B]Electoral votes[/B]
Hillary Clinton 286.5
Donald Trump 251.3
Gary Johnson 0.2

[B]Popular vote[/B]
Hillary Clinton 47.2%
Donald Trump 45.3%
Gary Johnson 6.2%

538s job is to make liberals feel good.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

538s job is to make liberals feel good.

They are the ones giving Trump the best odds out of any forecaster/betting market, you have no idea what you're talking about.

 

[Heisenberg]

Still think Clinton was the worst possible candidate for the Dems to nominate considering her enormous baggage. I lean heavily towards Democrat and will miss Obama being in office but my vote for Clinton will basically be an anti-Trump vote. For others that lean less towards to the left her baggage makes it a lot less likely to get their votes. I'll be worried if the numbers are really close come end of August.

 

[EatinOlives]

538s job is to make liberals feel good.

Sure made us feel good in 2012 when it was one of the very few prediction sites that actually proved accurate instead of finger-in-wind shit from a bunch of other places.

They're also giving Trump the highest chances right now.

 

[EightBitNate]

PA, OH, FL and Nevada lean trump?


LOL Ok .. Nothing to see here.

I don't post in these threads often, but posts like this one really confuse me.

It's amazing how you can laugh at a polling prediction just because it doesn't feel right to you. It's not like they do extensive data analysis or anything, right?

 

[akileese]

Polls like this are skewed since the bump comes directly after the convention. Let's see what happens after the DNC.

 

[mercenar1e]

You're basing this on what, and what do you mean a lot? Because just 'some' is plenty.



Hillary is against the TPP. Pay attention.

you're not fooling anyone with this garbage.

 

[DragonSworne]

I don't post in these threads often, but posts like this one really confuse me.

It's amazing how you can laugh at a polling prediction just because it doesn't feel right to you. It's not like they do extensive data analysis or anything, right?

PA will not be voting Republican...

 

[QuantumZebra]

538s job is to make liberals feel good.

Well I'm glad you let us know you know nothing about 538.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

you're not fooling anyone with this garbage.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/07/politics/hillary-clinton-opposes-tpp/index.html

You're not fooling anyone with your garbage. You don't believe her, SHOCKING, but that is her current stance on the TPP. Deal with it.

 

[Lord Error]

He mentioned Bernie's name several times in that speech, claimed similarities. Played on fears to an almost absurd degree. He knew what he was doing there.

 

[SirClinksAlot]

538s job is to make liberals feel good.

Are you calling Nate a liberal? Cause he isn't.

 

[Slurpy2k20]

Favorability ratings for Trump's wife, Melania, climbed from 27% pre-convention to 43% post-convention, despite news that her Monday night speech contained passages lifted from Michelle Obama's 2008 Democratic convention speech.

Fucking hilarious. This was the single biggest, most controversial, most negative story of the convention, and it gave her almost a 20% bump. For plagiarizing a speech? Only plausible rational I think can think of is "she's hot".

These stats tell us all we need to know about the logic and rationality of people's opinions. Michelle Obama (or anyone else) would have been fucking skewered for plagiarizing a speech from the previous 1st lady. But, Melania Trump gets a 20% bump. Just like Trump, who gets a bump every time he says something outlandish, hateful, false, or flat out insane.

 

[HariKari]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/07/politics/hillary-clinton-opposes-tpp/index.html

You're not fooling anyone with your garbage. You don't believe her, SHOCKING, but that is her current stance on the TPP. Deal with it.

As secretary of state, Clinton actively advocated for the TPP. In fact, she did so 45 times between 2010 and 2013.

"We need to keep upping our game both bilaterally and with partners across the region through agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership or TPP," Clinton said during a 2012 trip to Australia. "This TPP sets the gold standard in trade agreements to open free, transparent, fair trade, the kind of environment that has the rule of law and a level playing field. And when negotiated, this agreement will cover 40% of the world's total trade and build in strong protections for workers and the environment."

It's great that she is against it now. But you can't fault someone for having some doubt.

These stats tell us all we need to know about the logic and rationality of people's opinions. Michelle Obama (or anyone else) would have been fucking skewered for plagiarizing a speech from the previous 1st lady. But, Melania Trump gets a 20% bump. Just like Trump, who gets a bump every time he says something outlandish, hateful, false, or flat out insane.

This is why he's a big threat and no amount of cuddling with polls at night is going to make the threat go away. Can't let complacency set in.

 

[Measley]

I don't post in these threads often, but posts like this one really confuse me.

It's amazing how you can laugh at a polling prediction just because it doesn't feel right to you. It's not like they do extensive data analysis or anything, right?

There hasn't been an Ohio poll yet that shows Trump beating Clinton. At best, they show a tie or a Clinton lead.

Considering that Kasich and Trump hate each other, It's doubtful that the majority of Ohio conservatives will support Trump long term.

 

[trembli0s]

People need to wake up about PA and Ohio.

This isn't your grandfather's Republican Party which sucks at the teat of corporate mother's milk. Trump is a man who outright decries multilateral free trade deals, which absolutely plays into the rust belt states.

We've had numerous threads on here, like when that management asshat at Carrier told his workers the factory was moving to Mexico, which show the type of cross-party anger that unfettered free markets cause to manufacturing jobs.

 

[Blader]

It doesn't really matter what Hillary really thinks about the TPP since it's not going to happen anymore. Congressional Democrats have long been against it and Trump has poisoned the well on it for the GOP now.

PA will not be voting Republican...

That's probably the swing state most likely to go red, really. Its been progressively leaning that direction more and more each cycle, and I wouldn't be terribly surprised if this year was the tipping point for it.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

I don't post in these threads often, but posts like this one really confuse me.

It's amazing how you can laugh at a polling prediction just because it doesn't feel right to you. It's not like they do extensive data analysis or anything, right?

538's model essentially adjusts swing-states to meet recent general polling.

 

[Macam]

Gary Johnson at 9% and Stein at 3%?

is this the highest other parties have been in these polls?

Probably. Most people dislike both candidates, so it shouldn't be that surprising.

 

[DragonSworne]

That's probably the swing state most likely to go red, really. Its been progressively leaning that direction more and more each cycle, and I wouldn't be terribly surprised if this year was the tipping point for it.

Why do you think this election cycle will tip PA over to red? Trump's stance on immigration? Trump's stance on black lives matter? Trump's stance on foreign policy? Trump's stance on trade (probably this will be the case but Hillary is against TPP)?

Or does PA really hate Hillary that much?

 

[mercenar1e]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/07/politics/hillary-clinton-opposes-tpp/index.html

You're not fooling anyone with your garbage. You don't believe her, SHOCKING, but that is her current stance on the TPP. Deal with it.

you and her is not fooling anyone. its what she calls the gold standard.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/oct/08/hillary-clinton/hillary-clinton-now-opposes-trans-pacific-partners/

Sept. 8, 2010, remarks to the Council on Foreign Relations: "We want to realize the benefits from greater economic integration. In order to do that, we have to be willing to play. To this end ... we're pursuing a regional agreement with the nations of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and we know that that will help create new jobs and opportunities here at home."

March 9, 2011, remarks at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum: "The United States is also making important progress on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which will bring together nine APEC economies in a cutting-edge, next generation trade deal, one that aims to eliminate all trade tariffs by 2015 while improving supply change, saving energy, enhancing business practices both through information technology and green technologies."

July 8, 2012, remarks with a Japanese official: "The United States welcomes Japan's interest in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which we think will connect economies throughout the region, making trade and investment easier, spurring exports, creating jobs."

Nov. 5, 2012, remarks in Australia: "This TPP sets the gold standard in trade agreements to open free, transparent, fair trade, the kind of environment that has the rule of law and a level playing field. And when negotiated, this agreement will cover 40 percent of the world's total trade and build in strong protections for workers and the environment."

July 2014, in her memoir Hard Choices: "Because TPP negotiations are still ongoing, it makes sense to reserve judgment until we can evaluate the final proposed agreement. It’s safe to say the TPP won’t be perfect -- no deal negotiated among a dozen countries ever will be -- but its higher standards, if implemented and enforced, should benefit American businesses and workers… The TPP became the economic pillar of our strategy in Asia."

and a month after announcing that shes running for the 2016 election.

May 22, 2015, at a press conference in New Hampshire: "I've been for trade agreements, I've been against trade agreements, voted for some, voted against others, so I want to judge this when I see exactly what exactly is in it and whether or not I think it meets my standards," adding she had some "concerns" about the TPP.

 

[shintoki]

Its beginning to look a lot of Trumpmas.
Everywhere you go.
Take a look at Five Thirty Eight, Polling once again
With liberals and gaffers aglow.

 

[sflufan]

Trump's stance on trade (probably this will be the case but Hillary is against TPP)?

This is the issue that will more than likely tip the rust belt states of OH and PA to Trump.

 

[SpaceHorror]

 

[Measley]

That's probably the swing state most likely to go red, really. Its been progressively leaning that direction more and more each cycle, and I wouldn't be terribly surprised if this year was the tipping point for it.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

 

[BokehKing]

Its beginning to look a lot of Trumpmas.
Everywhere you go.
Take a look at Five Thirty Eight, Polling once again
With liberals and gaffers aglow.

Hahaha ok cause I'm a sucker for Christmas songs this made me laugh

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

It's great that she is against it now. But you can't fault someone for having some doubt.



This is why he's a big threat and no amount of cuddling with polls at night is going to make the threat go away. Can't let complacency set in.

I can fault them as painting what I'm saying as bullshit, when I'm simply quoting the facts of the matter. It's not my fault people choose purity over what's rational, what's at stake here, and what matters and what can't be actually be reversed perhaps for generations. We have people arguing over bullshit, and yet they won't have much say in so many progressive matters they supposedly hold dear when your supreme court is a super majority of conservatives.

Get some damn perspective.

 

[Vigilant Walrus]

You're basing this on what, and what do you mean a lot? Because just 'some' is plenty.



Hillary is against the TPP. Pay attention.

Trump is using it against her. Or her past remarks that is! Politifact made an address about a comment she made with regarding trade deals and TPP; http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...-trumps-largely-accurate-about-clintons-past/

No matter how you slice it, if you feel she was undecided or if it was a legit flip-flop, the language and rhetoric she used about TPP for 3 years leaved her open to attacks, which you know see. Kaine also changed his stance on TPP shortly before the VP announcement. Trump might use it.

I'm not sure if the fight against TPP is making strides. https://www.fightthetpp.org/ and eff seems to be campaigning pretty hard about Nancy Pelosi; https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2016/07/success-leader-pelosi-stands-users-oppose-tpp

There are some who feel that Clinton is against TPP conveniently because it's too far ahead and it goes against the sitting projects perhaps biggest remaining project.
TPP undermines China and Russia, so those countries have massive gains to win by TPP not passing. But Trump is against TPP because he is an idiot isolationist engaged in race to the bottom. He will effectively turn America into China with fixing unemployment at minimum wages set by states.
It would mean that Louisiana could set a minimum wage of 4 dollars and thus solve their unemployment problems. They'll emphasis job growth and good for businesses, but it would be regression. job availability is not a zero sum, and certainly not when equality is reaching dangerous levels as we're seeing.


So what to do?

 

[riotous]

Probably. Most people dislike both candidates, so it shouldn't be that surprising.

Statistically according to polls most people like 1 of the 2 major party candidates.

 

[gutter_trash]

I am going to be mister positive here,

this close race narrative is possibly a good thing because many complacent people were ready to declare this one to be in the bag and not care to vote

people are now scared shitless (they should be), move your buts and vote for Hillary Clinton

single issue voters, I don't care about you because you live comfortable cushy lives and you have no empathy towards people who are really scared of Trump for real

put yourselves in the shoes of someone who would really get hurt by a Trump Presidency.
Empathy, be emphatic

 

[Cyrano]

Listening to Hillary at the Veterans of Foreign Wars, she seems both strong and competent. What is the trust issue? Is it entirely the email scandals?

 

[TheLaughingStock]

They are the ones giving Trump the best odds out of any forecaster/betting market, you have no idea what you're talking about.

Nope Trump has a good shot elsewhere as well: http://pollyvote.com/en/components/econometric-models/

 

[mlclmtckr]

Listening to Hillary at the Veterans of Foreign Wars, she seems both strong and competent. What is the trust issue? Is it entirely the email scandals?

It's decades of Republican slander plus her being a career politician plus her being a woman equalling "I can't put my finger on it, but she just seems untrustworthy somehow".

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

you and her is not fooling anyone. its what she calls the gold standard.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/oct/08/hillary-clinton/hillary-clinton-now-opposes-trans-pacific-partners/



and a month after announcing that shes running for the 2016 election.

Yep, she said that, and then she reversed her stance on the TPP in Oct. 2015. I don't care if you believe her or not, but have fun with President Trump and super-majority SCOTUS though, because that's what this useless bickering will have all of us ending up with. It's a beautiful thing, right?

 

[mlclmtckr]

Nope Trump has a good shot elsewhere as well: http://pollyvote.com/en/components/econometric-models/

Well, "As of July 25, 2016, the PollyVote predicts Clinton to garner 52.0% of the two-party popular vote (Trump: 48.0%)."

Which means that you're wrong about that site and also changing the subject from your wrongness about 538.

 

[maquiladora]

Another national poll out today from Morning Consult : Trump 44%, Clinton 40%, Don't Know/No Opinion 16%.

Ugh...

https://morningconsult.com/2016/07/25/trump-surges-past-clinton-post-convention-bump/

 

[Macam]

Clinton is against the TPP like Trump is against violence at his political rallies.

 

[LJ11]

Can you imagine Obama having to host this cunt as president elect? Disgusting.

 

[Protein]

Welp. That's all folks.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Nope Trump has a good shot elsewhere as well: http://pollyvote.com/en/components/econometric-models/

I have never even heard of this site and it looks pretty small time so I can see why.

 

[DragonSworne]

Listening to Hillary at the Veterans of Foreign Wars, she seems both strong and competent. What is the trust issue? Is it entirely the email scandals?

That Hillary is fine. People don't trust the Hillary made out of straw though. The right wing media was been doing quite a number on Straw Hillary.

 

[Lamel]

Damn Melanias approval increased?

Seriously all press is good press for trump

 

[Cyrano]

It's decades of Republican slander plus her being a career politician plus her being a woman equalling "I can't put my finger on it, but she just seems untrustworthy somehow".

So it's a more general distrust of politicians altogether. I guess I can see that but I can't help but feel that's a petty reason. This shouldn't be a popularity contest it should be a discussion about issues that need to be addressed to make America stronger. How popular they are isn't going to matter once they're in office. Obama's presidency is no better proof of that.

 

[Maxim726X]

Damn Melanias approval increased?

Seriously all press is good press for trump

It's exactly like I said in the thread about this: The more we talk about it, the less of an effect it has.

Now she's seen as almost a tragic figure who needs to be defended from the liberal attack machine.

 

[Liljagare]

Guys, you're all fired!!