Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Convention bounces do happen but many of us were hoping it wouldn't be much.
CNN/ORC Poll: Trump 44%, Clinton 39%, Johnson 9%, Stein 3%
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Convention bounces do happen but many of us were hoping it wouldn't be much.
Permanently A
Junior Member
Daily reminder that Trump can't win because:
TAKE HIM SERIOUSLY. HE IS A THREAT. GET OUT AND VOTE COME NOVEMBER.
- he doesn't have the minority vote!
- the poll is flawed!
- he's a racist!
- the general is different from the primaries!
- the republicans don't even like him!
- bernie voters will suck it up and vote for hillary for sure!
TAKE HIM SERIOUSLY. HE IS A THREAT. GET OUT AND VOTE COME NOVEMBER.
Well for one, Roe v. Wade is a court decision, so it can't be repealed at all. It can, however, be overturned and Trump has said he would appoint conservative SCOTUS justices. Hell, we even know who he wants to be on the Supreme Court, he released his list of ideal picks (hint: it's everyone the Heritage Foundation has ever wanted). And while he may not be personally anti-LGBT, he has also said that he thinks the Obergefell decision was a mistake and that it should be left up to the states.
So let's be clear: regardless of Trump's personal opinions on abortion (he's pro-life) and gay marriage/gay rights, he will absolutely pack the Supreme Court with conservative justices who will overturn Roe v. Wade and Obergefell if given the opportunity.
Frankly, this is total nonsense.
That has been statistically shown to be the case.
Neither Trump nor the GOP are advocating for raising the minimum wage at all. Just the opposite: they think states should be allowed to lower it or eliminate it altogether.
Also, how much more enticing can you make these jobs? It's not just the wages, it's the actual kind of work that many Americans actively avoid. Does a $10/hour wage make working at McDonalds more appealing to you?
Of course he was serious about it. He has been spreading anti-Muslim rhetoric for a long time. This wasn't a sudden development and it's foolish to think he suddenly thinks the best of all Muslims.
Honestly man, for as many times as you say you are uninformed, you could very easily and very quickly find some of the answers you're looking for in a Google search.
Yes, but how much is debatable. Trump got a bigger bump than I expected.
gamechanger87
Member
The same reasons that most everyone else is, but I don't believe a lot of the racist/LBGT stuff that is thrown at him.
His isolationism on the FP side is also concerning.
In his ideal world, he will win the popular vote but lose the electoral and his brand will skyrocket. He doesn't want the job.
American white people that is. Pretty much everyone here in western Europe hates his guts.
Hillary is the Democrat's Dick Cheney, hopefully her ground game can make up for her toxic image. Team Hillary needs a lot more than just spreading fear about Trump, it's the economy stupid! Stop giving Trump free cards to play like the TPP, and start caring about the middle class.
Permanently A
Junior Member
He literally said he could shoot someone on 5th avenue and people would still support him, and the audience clapped and cheered.
Trump cannot be stopped. There is no scandal, no soundbyte, no single comment he can make that tanks him. Everything can be deflected as mainstream media trying to smear him. It doesn't matter what shit you fling at him, because none of it will stick.
Brawly Likes to Brawl
Member
nothing
Evil Monkey DTT
Banned
The man blamed bush for 9/11 on stage, there is literally nothing he can do that would make him lose these people other then drop out.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
You're basing this on what, and what do you mean a lot? Because just 'some' is plenty.
Hillary is against the TPP. Pay attention.
Like hell she is, and the problem also extends to the party platform.
balladofwindfishes
Member
This is on the higher end. Other polls are only showing +1 or +2.
Vestal
Junior Member
PA, OH, FL and Nevada lean trump?
LOL Ok .. Nothing to see here.
EatinOlives
Member
Why are you posting the "if the election were made today" and not the "long term" prediction? It's literally right next to it.
SDCowboy
Member
Why'd you leave out that she's still heavily favored long term?
maquiladora
Member
Fixed the post to show both now.
Maybe include the rest of the tweet too?
I agree that Trump should be taken seriously as a threat, but 538 still has Clinton winning in November. That image is for if the election were today.
VistraNorrez
Member
The Nowcast at 538 is the worst thing to look at unless it's Election Day.
I'm very convinced those bullet points are likely, but it doesn't mean I'm not going to work to get her elected. That's basically the key. It's all dependant on people getting out the vote at normal levels for presidential elections, and minimizing stupid "protest votes" from people who think our progressive candidate is not progressive enough.
EatinOlives
Member
Thanks
gamechanger87
Member
In all honesty, Kaine was a much better choice for President than Hillary was. If she hadn't already put the bag over the DNC's head and told everyone that she was running and they better not or risk her wrath I could have seen him easily winning the primary and the Bernie insurrection would never have had the legs it did.
The RNC made it so that you could have a bunch of candidates enter the primary's because in their mind over time the wacko candidates would fizzle out (Cain/Santorum) and thus the preferred candidate would end up taking the reigns. Unfortunately, this setup allowed too many primary candidates to stick around steal votes from each other keeping Trump in the game until it was too late.
The DNC pretty much made it so that there was one candidate running and it was set far in advance that Hillary would be it. Thus, no other possible candidates would bother running. Bernie was outside the system and had an agenda so he ran and held on longer than they hoped. Bernie was able to run a lot on her negatives. Thus, the DNC is stuck with a candidate that has an incredibly high unfavorable rating that nullifies Trump unfavorables. Trump ran against her and got there because of it. He would have more difficulties latching onto Kaine's negatives.
If Kaine was at the top of the ticket, I think this would be a whole different election. A lot of people underestimate how much people dislike her.
Spuck-uk
Banned
It was attempting to do this in Iraq that CAUSED ISIS.
I think the main takeaway is this election isn't all that different from any other. Low information voters make up most of the electorate and they'll support whatever clown their party puts forward. Come November, it'll be all about GOTV efforts, where Clinton has a huge advantage.
This is how I feel. It's a mess.
You don't believe shit that is IN his parties platform? I'm not trying to joke or scare others when I literally say that his party wants to enact conversion therapy. Again, it's literally torture. And it's in his parties platform. They want to torture LGBT individuals. Plus with the SC is on the line, they could easily get away with this extremist right-wing shit for decades. My very existence is in danger, as are the lives of thousands beyond thousands of other LGBT individuals. Please stop playing with our lives just because you have a inkling that you don't believe the GOP hates us. They fucking hate us. Okay.
As for the racist stuff, mein gott, where do I even begin with that if you don't believe that?
More sources on LGBT conversion therapy:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/13/us/politics/republican-convention-issues.html?_r=0
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/07/republican-platform-lurches-right
http://www.vice.com/read/i-survived-gay-conversion-therapy-2016-gop-republican-platform
Etc. etc.
You think there won't be more leaks coming out on the day of the election? It sure seems like Wikileaks will do everything it can to get Trump the win. Not to mention if the election is coming off a recent shooting or terrorist attack.
The Albatross
Member
DontBeThatGuy
Member
Oh, so you calling her a liar? Why I never.
ShockingAlberto
Member
WikiLeaks actively came out in defense of Milo Y.
I assume at this point they have more agendas than just "information should be free."
Nothing really average about either convention or the election so far. Averages smooth out major swings. Downplaying Trump's surge doesn't do any good.
The Albatross
Member
Sabato isn't downplaying anything, he's a pollster who is reporting polling history. He'a also been very accurate over the 10 years I've followed his political predictions.
ShockingAlberto
Member
I mean, she is a flip-flopper in this case, Just a question of why.
She was originally for TPP when it contained provisions for American workers. Eventually, those provisions were dropped, and she said she considered those fundamentally important to making it work. So she changed to opposing the partnership.
Maybe it was political expediency, who knows. But on the face of it, "It used to work, now it doesn't" does not seem like a bad reason to change your mind.
QuantumZebra
Member
Well speaking on their behalf - probably because he's Diet Hitler.
Why would anyone vote for him?
Convention bump means convention bump. Not wikileaks bump. Check yourself please.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
Because he's diet Hitler.
Sirpopopop
Member
Ok:
A. Do you care about global warming? If no, then vote Trump.
B. Did you like Antonin Scalia as a Supreme Court Justice? If yes, then vote Trump.
Because those are two things that you can guarantee that Trump will do in office: Fuck over the EPA & nominate extremely conservative Supreme Court justices that will roll back civil rights. He's a Republican, whose first major choice as "President" was to choose an extremely conservative vice president. This clearly signals his intent with regards to at least those two issues.
How do you know the leak hasn't played a part? It's sure seems to be the talk of the town.
ElBoxyBrown
Banned
Announce that he isn't gonna build the wall.
Wiz
Member
1 September 26, 2016
Hofstra University
Hempstead, New York
2 VP Debate - October 4, 2016
Longwood University
Farmville, Virginia
3 October 9, 2016
Washington University in Saint Louis
St. Louis, Missouri
4 October 19, 2016
University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Las Vegas, Nevada
gutter_trash
Banned
complacency is not an option, vote!
maquiladora
Member
The poll was conducted July 22-24 so the "leaks" could definitely have played a part in influencing opinion. Especially considering the rise in support from independents in this poll and the fact that the convection itself was as shitshow...
Pagusas
Elden Member
You adapt to your situation when an outcome becomes out of your control. That's not a middle class thing, thats a human thing. At the end of the day all any of us can do is vote and talk to the people around us. If thats not enough, than you go on with your life and adapt to the situations that arise.
Shamrock7r
Member
Not surprising. Hillary is a weak candidate, and unlikable to a large portion of people that are even voting for her. A lot of people don't trust her. Will see after the DNC but she is going to have to run a very very good campaign. This isn't going to be some cakewalk.
One of the most annoying things about Trump's unusual candidacy is that so many people have taken that as license to ignore everything about past polling.
He absolutely wants the job. If nothing else, he wants the job because it's there and something he doesn't have.
He absolutely wants the job. If nothing else, he wants the job because it's there and something he doesn't have.
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