United States Election: Nov. 8, 2016 |OT| Hate Trumps Love

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Damn
 
Man, that's scary. Change for the sake of change is not a good thing. I mean, compared to where we are now, a zombie apocalypse could be considered a "change", but I doubt people would want that kind of change. Also, those with more experience, better judgement and care more about the people are likely to make the decisions to make a change that not only benefits all, but is good for us in the long run.
 
I'm actually getting legit nervous. This morning I was confident Trump would lose but I keep seeing news coverage about how close he is. I'm actually concerned and worried. This is a terrible feeling.
 
Oh jeez? Is CNN doing their 20 person Thanksgiving table panel again? I'm definitely not tuning in for that. Let me know if someone has a meltdown though
 
It's at this moment where you realize how much power the USA actually has as a world leader. The amount of worry I see from other countries is crazy. I don't blame them at all.

even if Trump should win by some miracle, I really don't see how his presidency would noticeably affect most other countries. There are too many safety measures in the US to ensure that he can't go full Putin, Erdogan or even Orban. Though I could see it having an economic and social impact in America and validate other populists around the world
 
Watching this CNN intro, you would think an epic UFC match is about to start :/
 
538 are running a live forecast tonight as results come in, here's an explanation:

How Our Election Night Projections Work

Throughout this evening, we’ll be updating election night forecasts as states are called for presidential and senate candidates. To clear up any misinterpretations, we’re not trying to project states based on partial returns. So if (for example) Trump is leading Missouri by 5 percentage points with 40 percent of precincts reporting, that won’t matter to the model.

Instead, our election night model is much simpler than that. It relies upon only these three things:

  1. Our pre-election forecasts.
  2. States that are “called” by our partners at ABC News.
  3. The amount of time that has passed since the polls closed in a state, if it hasn’t been called yet.

To repeat, these forecasts do not use votes counted so far. They also do not use exit polls. They do not look at margin of victory. The only input is a single designation for every state: “D” (called for the Democrat), “R” (called for the Republican”) or blank (not called yet), based on calls made by the ABC News Decision Desk. We can also call states for independent candidates, or project that the Georgia or Louisiana senate races will go to a runoff.

Having a state called for you helps in two ways in the model.

  • It gives you electoral votes.
  • It helps you in our forecast for the other states.For example, if Wisconsin has been called for Clinton, the model can infer that she’s more likely to win Minnesota also. And it really helps a candidate if they win in an upset, since that’s a sign they may be beating their polls everywhere.

Our election models have been running tens of thousands of simulations each day in order to account for the relationship between different states in the Electoral College. The most important takeaway is that state outcomes are correlated: If Trump (unexpectedly) wins Virginia, for example, he’s also extremely likely to win North Carolina. So each simulation creates a plausible map based on a state’s region and demographics. In one simulation, perhaps, Clinton might outperform among Hispanics, therefore winning Florida and Arizona despite losing Ohio and Iowa.

These simulations are useful for our election night forecast also. Once we know the results in some states, we can make better inferences about the results in the remaining ones. So as states are called, we update the forecasts accordingly based on a series of regression analyses that relate every state to every other one.

The model also considers how long it’s been without a call in a state. If it originally expected Clinton to win New Jersey by 10 percentage points, for instance, but New Jersey still hasn’t been called five hours after polls have closed there, it will discount that lead significantly, assuming the state is closer than pre-election polls had the state.

As a final word of caution, I wouldn’t read too much into the first few called states, unless there are substantial upsets (Clinton winning Indiana, for example). But once swing states start to be called and the model has more data to work off, its projections will be more meaningful.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner
 
Wait, don't Indiana and Kentucky wait until 7pm? A lot of their counties end voting at 6pm, but networks wait until the entire state is in.
 
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