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[Pellegri Testament]

Come on, NES mini is not even a real console, they said upfront there wasn't going to be preorders too, i think people got too crazy for this toy, what's the hurry to have a toy that runs 20 years old games which you can find almost everywhere else? You couldn't get it day one? just wait a few weeks and you'll have tons of them waiting for you in stores...Of course if that happened with Switch that'd be bad, but i'm sure it won't, who really want to get it will be able to preorder it and be sure to have it day one

I'm guessing you didn't look at this from a price perspective, because buying these games on Virtual Console is almost 3 times as much as the Nes mini, buying them for an Nes is about 10 times as much (not to mention you need a working Nes), and just going online and downloading the roms for free....well, I wouldn't mention if you do that here on Gaf.

 

[Captain Chaos]

I normally agree with most of what Jim says, but this one is load of garbage. Not manufacturing enough product to fulfil demand on purpose just makes no sense for Nintendo.

 

[LordRaptor]

I wouldnt question people who run a store on whether they are adequately supplied.

They have insight on how their - extremely - localised microclimate is performing.
They have no insight as to how that microclimate is performing in relation to the entire market.

Making claims that fucking pokemon was "undershipped" is so ludicrously out of touch and myopic that it can't help but colour any additional 'perspective' they might have on things.

e:

just going online and downloading the roms for free....well, I wouldn't mention if you do that here on Gaf.

Thats literally what Jim sterling was telling people to do when the NES mini was announced though. I guess he changed his mind.

 

[Ouroboros]

I stopped wasting my time looking for one of these after my Target said they only got 6 in their initial shipment. As much as I wanted to get one of these for my brother for Christmas at MSRP it just isn't going to happen. Thanks Nintendo, I bought him BF1 instead.

 

[random25]

The store even said they undershipped Pokemon S&M. They got about 200 copies and told me they were flooded with preorders. They said they sold out of the NES Classic 10 minutes after opening.

While I understand the sentiment of the store manager regarding S/M, it's probably just a case of Nintendo not being able to meet the entirety of initial demand for the game as it is their biggest launch shipment for a 3DS game in its history.

The NES Classic is obviously a different story.

 

[snitsky]

They have been doing this over and over and over again for at least 25 years. If it's not on purpose then Nintendo is the most incompetent company on the planet.

 

[kaioshade]

Hmm, just like the New 3DS at this Black Friday, right?

Were those labeled as limited though?

 

[NormalFish]

My favourite part about Jim's videos is that he addresses most of his detractors points, but since they refuse to watch the video they never realize.

 

[Affeinvasion]

Haven't watched the video. I have never heard of a thing called "artificial demand" throughout my college study. Nintendo could be conservative on production, but I don't think that this is due to failing to forecast the demand. They have been in business for a long time, long enough to forecast the demand by looking at the historical data, especially when they have historical problem with supplying amiibo.

So why did they under-produce the NES Mini and Black Friday 3DS? Maybe because of production volume of plants, limitation in parts supply, or they simply didn't have much time to produce a large amount of products. The problems could be caused by many factors, but I am pretty sure "artificial demand" isn't one of them.

And I do believe Nintendo need to fix this before selling Switch, albeit I doubt if they can greatly raise the production volume within 3 months.

I don't care why it happens, frankly. That's an academic debate. I care about results. Time and again Nintendo fails to deliver enough product to meet demand.

 

[Geg]

There was also a big buzz around Bayonetta 2 on the Wii U since its announcement. And you know what happened to its sales.

I think their big mistake was to not let pre-orders happen for the NES Mini just to get a true gauge of the demand.

I mean they did also undership Bayonetta 2. I had to go to about 3 different stores to find one a few days after launch

 

[Malakai]

8 years in marketing & advertising (more studying) and I have never seen anyone actually do this in the way people claim Nintendo does.

If you was to actually do this tactic its easy enough to pretend you have 'low stock' or 'temporary sold out', you can strategically release product and maximize the effectness of such a campaign without losing many sales. This isn't what's happening with Nintendo as stock shortages drag on too long.

Everything I've seen in regards to Amiibo, CE/LEs and the NES mini doesn't point to an effective tease and release campaign. They point to low production likely due to low faith in product or short production runs in timed factories.

Nintendo are no way generating enough interest via low stock to make up for all the lost sales.

Either they have a really shit marketing team or they have a very cautious approval board, who only allows them to produce in limited quantities incase of product failure (poor sales). I believe its the later.

I'm not saying they are not shit with distribution, I'm saying they are not doing it on purpose to drive sales.

This have been already proven after the Wii U.

 

[bomblord1]

Were those labeled as limited though?

Yup it's no different than any other made for Black Friday items.

 

[Sir_Crocodile]

Thats literally what Jim sterling was telling people to do when the NES mini was announced though. I guess he changed his mind.

That seriously happened?

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

Sorry, allow me to correct myself, the Wii shortage lasted basically a full year and then magically the shelves were full the coming year. I actually excused the shortage for the first year.

There ya go. Old 2006 arguments. It wasn't anything magical. It was an in demand item that sold gangbusters. They had no way of knowing about the unprecedented demand. Here, look at an old graph. You can't have the fastest selling console in the history of the industry and imply they tried to hold back stock. It's more likely they had no way of knowing and will have trouble reproducing that event.

There were like twice as many Wiis available as anything before for quite some time.

 

[Lothars]

So you think it's just as simple as like sending an email like "Amiibos are actually doing well!, let's actually produce 5million instead of 500k!" and then the next week those Amiibos be in Stock?

I get what you guys are saying but it kind of really makes sense for a company like Nintendo who just failed miserably with the Wii U to be extremely conservative in their spending and projections. So Idk. Incompetence seems like a shortsighted conclusion to reach

OF course it's not as simple as sending an email but Amiibos are the one thing initally I could see them being unsure about but after the inital stock of amiibos, it kept happening. there's far to many recent examples of things they have released that have barely any stock that sell out instantly and seems like Nintendo just continuously drops the ball on this.

 

[LordRaptor]

That seriously happened?

I'm not saying emulators are cool, Buuutttttt......

 

[Kthulhu]

My favourite part about Jim's videos is that he addresses most of his detractors points, but since they refuse to watch the video they never realize.

As is typical of Jim's detractors.

While I understand the sentiment of the store manager regarding S/M, it's probably just a case of Nintendo not being able to meet the entirety of initial demand for the game as it is their biggest launch shipment for a 3DS game in its history.

The NES Classic is obviously a different story.

Perhaps.

 

[dreamcastmaster]

They also may have only secured enough shipping container space for orders they knew they could fill

Nintendo own/heavily invested in their own shipping partner and also a printing company. They can get as much container space as they want pushing out shipments from other customers.

Source: Me, I manufactured N64 and GB carts for a big third party publisher.

 

[THEAnderson21]

There was also a big buzz around Bayonetta 2 on the Wii U since its announcement. And you know what happened to its sales.

I think their big mistake was to not let pre-orders happen for the NES Mini just to get a true gauge of the demand.

Didn't Bayo 2 outsell the first one, despite being on only one console?

 

[kaioshade]

Yup it's no different than any other made for Black Friday items.

Hmm, OK. I always saw it labeled as Just "Mario White" and "Mario Black" never saw them marketed as limited, just another edition. But if was truly marketed and communicated as limited (i must have missed it if it was) then i have no problems with them selling out.

And i am not being sarcastic.

 

[random25]

I mean they did also undership Bayonetta 2. I had to go to about 3 different stores to find one a few days after launch

Bayo 2 was not an in-demand title at launch. The store I used to buy games only stocked 2 extra games aside from the few pre-ordered copies because the demand was weak they said. It's just simply a case of stores not stocking a game they thought will not get out of the store shelf aside from bargain bin.

Didn't Bayo 2 outsell the first one, despite being on only one console?

It only outsold one console version of Bayo 1 I believe (dunno if it's PS3 or 360). But not combined.

 

[Sephzilla]

There ya go. Old 2006 arguments. It wasn't anything magical. It was an in demand item that sold gangbusters. They had no way of knowing about the unprecedented demand. Here, look at an old graph. You can't have the fastest selling console in the history of the industry and imply they tried to hold back stock. It's more likely they had no way of knowing and will have trouble reproducing that event.

I mean, don't get me wrong, I can understand not having high expectations at first considering there was a distinct trend of every Nintendo console selling less than its predecessor (a trend the Wii-U picked up again). But the Wii shortage lasted well after it was already an established hot item. It took them upwards of a year to start meeting that demand - that's still unacceptable.

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

I mean they did also undership Bayonetta 2. I had to go to about 3 different stores to find one a few days after launch

It's the same thing with any Nintendo product that people want. Fire Emblem is another example. It might be incompetence once, twice, three times... but this is every time. It's intentional.

 

[Kintaro]

I mean, if you expected more than that maybe you should rethink your position as a manager. Your store doesn't exist in a vacuum and Nintendo was delivering these worldwide.

It makes perfect sense that a niche product like this wouldn't have tens of millions of units initially.

Holy shit, you're an asshole. No surprise.

If they did preorders, I would have has 90. Easy. In my tiny store.

It doesn't make perfect sense. As stated multiple times. They could have opened up preorders like anybody else to judge demand.

 

[Skittzo0413]

they never wanted to sell NES minis in loads.

Actually I think this is a very understated point.

Nintendo needs some holiday revenue from the NES mini but the existence of such a device does undercut their (admittedly terrible) VC sales and potential dedicated hardware sales. It could very well be possible that they were aware of a higher demand than anticipated but didn't want to flood the market with these products as they might cannibalize their other products.

 

[Bjoern the Smexy]

Can't say I didn't see this coming, ESPECIALLY in the Americas, where they didn't even put it on pre-order, which is totally and utterly stupid since they did put it up for pre-order the day it was announced in Europe.

 

[fernoca]

I do agree that preorders should've been allowed worldwide to gauge a better interest.

But also agree that all this "Nintendo is creating shortages" is a bit of reaching. Usually when companies do this "artificial demand", is because the hold stock and then is sent to stores when needed. In Nintendo's case, they don't. They are producing them as we speak. Knowing demand is high, producing a few and then not fulfilling demand is not how this works.

Plus, some alluded that when NoA introduced this to retailers before summer, they had no interest in carrying this. Probably burned from similar devices, so they ordered the minimum, and then were caught into the hype when it was introduced to the public.

Then again, Jim per se bashed the NES mini and saw it as a waste, so he should be making a video of people not listening to him.

 

[cheesekao]

Didn't Bayo 2 outsell the first one, despite being on only one console?

Yea.....no.

 

[packy34]

He is absolutely correct. The NES Classic is a plastic shell, tiny logic board, flash memory card, and a power supply. It likely costs them less than $5 to make one. There is no logical reason why these things aren't readily available.

 

[ElectricBlanketFire]

Was planning on getting one for my son, but I'm not paying second-market prices.

Sucks.

 

[Kthulhu]

I'm not saying emulators are cool, Buuutttttt......

That video talks about how publishers should compete with free ROMs instead of doing nothing.

Jim never advocated for piracy.

 

[Jim_Cacher]

I don't care why it happens, frankly. That's an academic debate. I care about results. Time and again Nintendo fails to deliver enough product to meet demand.

I do agree. Customers only care about the final results, and businesses need to fulfill their demands. I just feel that people may want to call out their production and sales team in the right way, instead of throwing terms like "artificial demand" which is not usually employed by a company.

 

[-shadow-]

Didn't Bayo 2 outsell the first one, despite being on only one console?

Do we even know any numbers this game ended up doing? I know that the launch wasn't really hot, but afterwards nothing.

 

[Schnozberry]

Nintendo own/heavily invested in their own shipping partner and also a printing company. They can get as much container space as they want pushing out shipments from other customers.

Source: Me, I manufactured N64 and GB carts for a big third party publisher.

They also recently purchased a console distributor in Japan, yet the Famicom Mini is sold out everywhere as well. Maybe the problem lies somewhere upstream then.

 

[asagami_]

Were those labeled as limited though?

Funny, but I saw it labeled in my local Amazon as "Consola Nintendo 3DS - Edición Limitada Super Mario - Color Negro - Limited Edition", but in the USA Amazon it's "Nintendo New Nintendo 3DS Super Mario Black Edition - Nintendo 3DS"

Still, It's a Black Friday item whose price it's 99 dlls, and it's the regular New 3DS, a console Nintendo USA only sells in holiday and it have precedents (the Animal Crossing edition, the Pokémon Red and Blue edition...)

 

[Drek]

I think the debate as to why this happens is being argued from the wrong angle.

One side says Nintendo does this to build the appearance of scarcity and feed off the hype that engenders.

The other side says no one would give up marginal sales to reap the only potential rewards of increased scarcity and hype. Instead that the manufacturing ability simply isn't there to produce up to successful Nintendo product demand.

Then we get a 3rd way argument that claims it's simply incompetence.

It is none of these things. All have some small role to play but the real cause of this, to me, lies much closer to Nintendo's core corporate ideology: No major financial risks.

Nintendo dropped out of the cutting edge hardware competition with home consoles because they didn't want to take on the R&D and initial manufacturing costs due to the inherent risk with that upfront cash outlay.

Nintendo stretched their bill of materials to it's limit with the 3DS trying to catch a blue wave with 3D. It will be their least financially successful handheld simply because they sold it at cost for much of it's life, briefly at a loss, and that despite strong hardware and software sales. Meanwhile the Gameboy printed money for a decade despite multiple higher tech competitors trying and failing to dethrone it and the NDS did the same despite a technologically superior competitor from a major 1st party aligned directly opposed to it and seeing it's later years overlap with the smartphone/tablet explosion.

The Wii was low financial risk and an alternative control scheme and good marketing produced absurd rewards. The Wii U was increased technological risk and (in part due to poor marketing) was a massive bust.

Nintendo simply doesn't believe that increased financial risk results in increased financial reward.

Now if they aren't going to splurge on R&D what is the one other major financial risk a hardware manufacturer takes? Production capacity. It isn't just units sitting on shelves. It's contracts for materials purchases, calculating the economy of scale discount they'll see on those materials, etc..

Does the free hype from scarcity factor in slightly to their decision making process? I'm sure it does.

Does some level of obtuse thinking infect how they gauge market interest for their products? Sure seems like it.

Is there difficulty in raping up production for all small to mid-sized manufacturers? Sure. Nintendo isn't Sony or MS, they simply lack the same scale of production resources.

But ultimately what this boils down to is that Nintendo would rather make 500,000 units and know they'll sell all 500,000 units than make 1,000,000 units and sell 800,000 units, because they paid for those 200,000 and that cost comes directly off the top of the profit made. Expand manufacturing across all product lines and that also incurs substantial operating cost that further reduces profitability and increased risk.

Nintendo is an incredibly conservative company. Their management team recognizes that EAD plus their core IPs are basically a golden goose and their goal is to not over-exploit that golden goose while trying to hit a few home runs on their own along the way. That produces some big boom years and basically no bust years. Sony can afford bust years. Microsoft could afford a bust decade in all other product lines but OS and Office and barely notice. Nintendo has a big war chest but as an overall entity isn't very big and very exposed in today's age of rapid consolidation. Especially in a post-Yamauchi reality where there is no iconic shareholder to shield the company from takeover they simply can't gamble and lose.

 

[Jawmuncher]

Do we even know any numbers this game ended up doing? I know that the launch wasn't really hot, but afterwards nothing.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure we don't have numbers for Bayo 2. We do have numbers for Bayo 1 which was a little more than a million on both PS3/360 combined. So I kinda doubt it outdid that.

-------

I hope Nintendo doesn't pull this scarcity shit for Switch.

 

[Soundslike]

I thought i would watch the video and see what this man had to say...watched the intro and 20 seconds...errmm NOPE, not gonna watch.

 

[BGBW]

Oh, a ZZZap! reference.

 

[fernoca]

Yea.....no.

Do we even know any numbers this game ended up doing? I know that the launch wasn't really hot, but afterwards nothing.

According to what has been teased, it outsold them as far as individual SKUs, but not combined.

Something like:
Bayonetta 2 > Bayonetta 360 > Bayonetta PS3

But 360/PS3 > Wii U.

 

[Alebrije]

Just think they will release more units once they got the money from the first batch, these days Nintendo can not afford to loose money after the WiiU.

They were conservative.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

I think Nintendo's biggest issues is they've been too isolated and centralized in Kyoto for too long. Kyoto companies are notoriously insular, even by Japanese corporation standards.

They're just super behind the times and out of touch with the global market, unlike say Sony who long ago gave their western branches much more independence and influence on the corporation--which was wise as the western market is the dominant market for gaming.

As such Nintendo is way out of touch with the gaming market in many ways, and seems to fail at marketing research. Examples:

-Underestimating demand for NES many. People here posted that employees at the Nintendo World store were shocked by demand and asking people why they wanted one.

-Underestimating demand for Amiibo of their iconic characters. Then overestimating demand for Animal Crossing Amiibo-a series were even big fans only care about a couple of characters as most are playing to collect outfits and furniture to customize their character and home.

-Thinking the Wii U gamepad would appeal to the tablet crowd--a big, clunky tablet that only works within 20-30ft of it's base station.

-Thinking off-TV play would be a big thing in the west, especially NA, where most homes with enough money for game consoles are big houses with multiple TVs.

-The Wii U name causing confusion among casuals who thought it was just a Wii accessory, stores stocking it under Wii banners etc.

If they're going to get back on track with the Switch, then need to modernize and do more marketing research, give their western branches more autonomy and more influence in corporate decisions.

I though the Switch reveal video was a step in the right direction. Mostly western focused, touched on the e-sports craze, no kids/families/casuals/non-gamer pandering etc. But they clearly did little marketing research for the Switch as evidenced by the huge understocking, annoyances over the short cord etc. But I can give them a pass on that as it was just a quick side project to help provide some revenue in a quarter where they had little coming out other than Pokemon Sun and Moon.

 

[4444244]

I agree that you would be naïve to think anything other than that either Nintendo poorly forecast the demand and, or allowed under supply. And whichever this was, it of course sucks on Nintendo's part.

With that said, there is really, really, really simple way we dealing with all of this.

1) Don't buy it straight away.

Is it really essential that you buy this overpriced piece of kit, right now / in time for Christmas? No, not at all.

 

[Empyrean Heaven]

Were those labeled as limited though?

It’s a deal spelled out in black and white: For the first time ever, Nintendo’s popular hand-held New Nintendo 3DS video game system will be offered at a suggested retail price of $99.99. Two special-edition models – one black, one white, both featuring Mushroom Kingdom characters and imagery – will be available starting Nov. 25. This system, along with great software, will appeal to gift-givers and value shoppers alike.

"Special Edition" is code for "limited", so yes.

 

[JigglesBunny]

Not going to watch but people need to let go of the manufactured scarcity myth.

No one is doing this on purpose in 2016, there are a number of other complex factors that affect supply and demand. Failure to meet demand costs money and the 'free marketing' it gets is not worth loss of sales.

Nintendo is practically infamous for manufactured scarcity. It would be a different story if this was an isolated incident that only cropped up with the NES Classic launch but this goes all the way back to the Wii.

You don't actually believe there was a massive market for Amiibos, right? The collectors were getting shat on because of scalpers buying up Nintendo's paltry supply. Nintendo manufactures low quantities and the only people who benefit are the scalpers. It's shitty and definitely a thing they consciencely do.

 

[Fallout-NL]

All I know is when they announce that SNES mini - I'm preordering 5 of those fuckers.

 

[HazySaiyan]

Just think they will release more units once they got the money from the first batch, these days Nintendo can not afford to loose money after the WiiU.

They were conservative.

You say that as if this has never happened with Nintendo products before

 

[LordRaptor]

Jim never advocated for piracy.

Except;

The subject of emulation is a tricky one, especially taboo in traditional games media where you're often not supposed to mention its existence and you certainly can't be seen to be endorsing it. It's a bit like Voldemort

Either way, it's not my job as part of games media to be protecting these fucking companies, because they sure as fuck don't care about anyone else, so in that spirit: Voldemort, Voldemort, Voldemort.

gosh yes, pretty ambiguous what he is saying.

Also pretty far in tone from "Holy shit NES Mini is gonna be huge, better preorder now, shits gonna be flying off the shelves"

 

[-shadow-]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure we don't have numbers for Bayo 2. We do have numbers for Bayo 1 which was a little more than a million on both PS3/360 combined. So I kinda doubt it outdid that.

According to what has been teased, it outsold them as far as individual SKUs, but not combined.

Something like:
Bayonetta 2 > Bayonetta 360 > Bayonetta PS3

But 360/PS3 > Wii U.

Ugh... Depressing that such an amazing games sold like that. Though the WiiU didn't do it any favours.

I hope Nintendo doesn't pull this scarcity shit for Switch.

They better not, I want my system at launch!

 

[kunonabi]

He is absolutely correct. The NES Classic is a plastic shell, tiny logic board, flash memory card, and a power supply. It likely costs them less than $5 to make one. There is no logical reason why these things aren't readily available.

It's not like they have a bunch of products coming out this holiday season either. They essentially have pokemon and the NES classic and that's it.