It must be fun being a Sega fanboy getting a new Sonic game all the time and not a new Panzer Dragoon Saga or Jet Set Radio or Space Channel 5.
This. Just look at Sega. Or even look at Konami, Capcom, SNK,
or any other Japanese developer who used to make console hardware or arcade hardware.
When you remove the manufacturing of new hardware, the incentive to create risky software fades away. First party software will
always be the riskiest and most groundbreaking because it has to sell new hardware.
Let me look at my crystal ball...its cloudy right now, sorry
Only thing I'll say is comparisons to Sega are barely skin-deep. Sega was bankrupt and dead if not for a donation from a former owner. They didn't have IP that the mass-market liked enough to buy in great quanities on their own hardware. When they put out similar titles, ports and sequels of their DC titles on other platforms they still didn't sell.
The era of high quality, sought after Sega first-party software is a myth.
Apples and oranges.
I don't agree. Again, consoles used to be the place where arcade games came into your home. Sony sort of changed that with their focus on cinematic experiences.
Many Japanese devs lost their way when they started catering to this shift in tastes. And it only happened when they stopped making their own hardware. Nintendo started in the arcades, and selling hardware with unique software is part of their overall DNA. Take away their hardware and the incentive to take risks goes with it. Just look at Super Mario Run. It's fairly phoned in and safe.
And you're wrong about Sega's software. It was always high quality in the 80s and 90s. They just made poor choices with their hardware which caused them to lose too money, then too many third parties jumped ship to the PS2. Piracy also hit the Dreamcast very hard in its heyday causing a lower attach rate.
A similar thing happened with the Wii U - it was a poor branding direction for the company and no amount of quality software could save it. Similar software efforts from Nintendo saved the 3DS, so it shows that sometimes, even quality software alone cannot move hardware. The hardware itself has to be appealing too.
Sega's hardware struggles had nothing to do with the quality of their first party software. They just lost the hardware arms race to Sony.