Razgriz-Specter
Member
I already know the answer
I'd kill to have that version in an X-Men or Deadpool movie.
Wonder Woman now tracking to have opening on par with other DCEU movies
- Thread starter Slayven
- Start date
- Status
I'd kill to have that version in an X-Men or Deadpool movie.
I'd kill to have that version in an X-Men or Deadpool movie.
you'll take your worthless useless ass Singer Rogue and like it
This article has nothing to do with tracking. This whole thing is based off one site's predictions.
That's all this is.
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
Lol at the thread title.
$83M would be a pretty solid opening for the first Wonder Woman movie. Especially considering how the previous DCEU films have been received. It might even be a little bit optimistic, actually. WW is nowhere near Batman, Superman, the Joker or Harley Quinn in terms of popularity but hopefully that will change if the movie is good.
I'm more worried about the foreign markets honestly, I really have no idea how the movie will do there. Cap 1 numbers? Ant-Man? Thor? Tough to say. But anything above $400M worldwide would be pretty respectable in my book for her first outing.
$83M would be a pretty solid opening for the first Wonder Woman movie. Especially considering how the previous DCEU films have been received. It might even be a little bit optimistic, actually. WW is nowhere near Batman, Superman, the Joker or Harley Quinn in terms of popularity but hopefully that will change if the movie is good.
I'm more worried about the foreign markets honestly, I really have no idea how the movie will do there. Cap 1 numbers? Ant-Man? Thor? Tough to say. But anything above $400M worldwide would be pretty respectable in my book for her first outing.
Razgriz-Specter
Member
Not tragic at all..Aquaman in Entourage was the highest grossing movie ever, barely beating out Spidey. I think it was like $120 million. People have some unrealistic expectation of DC movies, CBM, and movies in general if that is the norm.
The Citizen Kane of Games
Member
Sounds about right for an 'unknown' superhero character, see: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=captainamerica.htm
65m opening
176m domestic box office
But now it's probably because she's female...
65m opening
176m domestic box office
But now it's probably because she's female...
starchild excalibur
Member
I seriously always fucking forget this movie is coming out this year. I hope I end up being wrong, but nothing about it has led me to think that it's a film that'll be amazing.
I want this to be good. I'll be there the first weekend if it gets even just okay reviews.
But I have to ask: if this movie isn't good and bombs and if Justice League is terrible and disappoints a bit at the box office like BvS did, where does DC go from there?
Do we start seeing movies being canceled? Does Batgirl still happen?
But I have to ask: if this movie isn't good and bombs and if Justice League is terrible and disappoints a bit at the box office like BvS did, where does DC go from there?
Do we start seeing movies being canceled? Does Batgirl still happen?
Razgriz-Specter
Member
Batman still happens
Nightwing still happens
Batgirl depends but most likely happens even if it gets a major Batman, Nightwing or Harley plug
Sirens happens
Flash will probably happen just to easily reboot the failures.
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
Well, I think Justice League is just a hurdle we have to get past at this point. And I think even WB knows that and that's why they're green-lighting a bunch of Batman projects. JL might very well disappoint at the box-office but it's too late to stop the DC train now. Aquaman is filming, they have a successful director for Batman and they managed to sign Joss Whedon. It'll be all right, except GAF servers will probably catch on fire in November.
Boxoffice.com tracks various social media and online service metrics to help make their predictions. They typically aren't that far out from traditional tracking, though I feel like they tend to be more accurate with big live action films than animated films. They have undershot a lot of animated films in the past year.
I went back and looked at Boxoffice.com's track record for their initial two-months from launch predictions for big budget films over the past year (Basically BvS to GitS). I might be the only one interested in this, but I will share anyhow:
Boxoffice.com Advance Opening Weekend Predictions Track Record for Big Budget Films Over the Past 12 Months
Code:
TOTALS IN MILLIONS USD
Title Prediction Actual Under/Over % Accuracy
Batman v Superman $154 $166 Under 93%
The Jungle Book $60 $103 Under 58%
The Huntsman $31 $19 Over 61%
Civil War $163 $179 Under 91%
Alice: TtLG* $74 $34 Over 46%
X-Men Apocalypse* $124 $80 Over 65%
TMNT 2 $55 $35 Over 64%
Warcraft $35 $24 Over 69%
ID4: Resurgence $68 $41 Over 60%
Legend of Tarzan* $23.50 $47 Under 50%
The BFG* $31 $23 Over 74%
Ghostbusters $63 $46 Over 73%
Star Trek Beyond $56 $59 Under 95%
Jason Bourne $65 $59 Over 91%
Suicide Squad $98 $134 Under 73%
Ben-Hur $19 $11 Over 58%
Magnificent Seven $49 $35 Over 71%
Deepwater Horizon $19 $20 Under 95%
Inferno $36 $15 Over 42%
Doctor Strange $88 $85 Over 97%
Fantastic Beasts $78 $74 Over 95%
Rogue One $135 $155 Under 87%
Passengers^ $38 $15 Over 39%
Assassins Creed^ $13 $10 Over 77%
Monster Trucks* $12 $14 Under 77%
Fifty Shades Darker $41 $47 Under 87%
The Great Wall* $34 $22 Over 65%
Logan $81 $88 Under 92%
Kong: Skull Island $40 $61 Under 66%
Beauty and the Beast $144 $175 Under 82%
Power Rangers $38 $40 Under 95%
Ghost in the Shell $40 $19 Over 48%
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: *4-day weekend ^film opened on Wednesday
AVERAGE 73%
MIN 39%
25th Percentile 61%
75th Percentile 91%
MAX 97%
Overpredictions 18
Slight Overpredictions 3
Gross Overpredictions 6
Underpredictions 14
Slight Underpredictions 5
Gross Underpredictions 2Some Notes:
- I generally stuck to live-action films with budgets over $90M, but I threw 50 Shades in there because it was a sequel to a huge film
- I am focusing on opening weekends, because totals are just shots in the dark, and depend way more on WOM.
- The % Accuracy was low_value/high_value, regardless of whether the prediction was lower or higher than the actual. 50% accuracy means that the high value was twice that of the low value, 67% accuracy means that the high value was 1.5x the low value, and so on.
- I added in the quartiles to give more info beyond the overall average.
- Slight over/underpredictions were close to the actual opening weekend grosses and had an accuracy of at least 90%
- Gross over/underpredictions were way off from the actuals, with an accuracy of 60% or less.
My Take:
- There's not much difference in the frequency of overpredictions and underpredictions
- Boxoffice.com seems more likely to grossly overpredict than grossly underpredict films. There were 32 films on the list, and only 3 (The Jungle Book, Tarzan, and Kong) beat expectations by at least 50%. Tarzan was the only big budget film in the past year that doubled boxoffice.com's prediction. If something is going to be way off, it's more likely to be a bomb. At least for these big budget films.
- Other than X-men Apocalypse, their superhero predictions have been pretty good over the past year. Everything else was at or above the mean accuracy. 4 of their best 8 predictions were super films. 5 if you want to count Power Rangers.
Extrapolating to the Wonder Woman prediction
- If Wonder Woman hit that mean 73% accuracy, its actual opening would be somewhere between $61M and $114M.
- If Wonder Woman falls within that 90% accuracy range that a lot of the past super films gave landed, its actual opening would be between $75M and $92M
- If Wonder Woman overperforms, you probably shouldn't expect anything higher than $125M (basically Man of Steel's opening).
King Gilga
Member
To be expected.
I much prefer her new costume, I always thought her old one was dumb and never paid attention to the character because of it. Enjoyed her in unity squad.
I'd kill to have that version in an X-Men or Deadpool movie.
I much prefer her new costume, I always thought her old one was dumb and never paid attention to the character because of it. Enjoyed her in unity squad.
MHWilliams
Member
I mean... now.
Tony was roughly the same, he's just dialed up to 11.
Star-Lord talked shit, but he was a grizzled veteran and more of a nominal leader than his post-film counterpart. He was a cop, now he's freebooter. All they've really kept was the sense of humor.
Rogue cop:
Movie Star-Lord on the comic page:
Humor, yes. Character, no.
All the Batman films still happen. Aquaman still happens. Beyond that? *shrug*
Ya, movie Peter Quill invaded Marvel Comics (via Bendis), murdered the version we had for many years, and proceeded to wear his skin. I guess it makes sense, given how niche GotG was in comic form before the film, but Starlord is one of the more blatant examples of movie pandering in Marvel Comics.
Salty Rice
Member
And Donald Trump already lost the election...
Gonna wait and see how this turns out.
Gonna wait and see how this turns out.
Sort of. I feel like the (early) Ultimate Comics material had an outsized influence on the MCU, and some of that has bled over into the main universe (literally in some cases).
Ultimate Tony Stark's personality wasn't all that different than the RDJ version's, even if the old 616 Tony was a little more stoic through the 90s and 00s. Movie Hawkeye was definitely closer to Ultimate Hawkeye, but the main comic character seems to be his own thing for the most part. I'd say that movie Cap is closer to the 616 cap (or whatever universe it is now) than he was to the Ultimate cap, so there hasn't been much change there. Most of the other avengers fall somewhere in between.
Well.. Thor 2 or Strange numbers wouldnt be so bad for WW would it? I was hoping for ~650 or higher for Wonder Woman worldwide. I dont really see how tracking along those lines would be considered bad.
All valid but that actually isn't official yet. The report was that he was "nearing a deal" but we haven't heard anything yet.
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
Oh right, I forgot it wasn't official yet.
DiscoJer
Member
Can't they just reduce budgets? It seems like so many of the supposed "flops" are only flops because the budget was way damn too high.
I don't think this matters anymore. Both the MCU and DCEU franchises have adopted the TV practice of backdoor pilots. All of these future characters will already be in big blockbusters before their own films debut. I fully expect Doctor Strange to be the last of the "cold-start" heroes.
DC hasn't had any financial flops yet in this universe, only critical flops.
BvS was a bit disappointing because a movie like that should be an easy billion and it wasn't. But it wasn't a flop.
broncobuster
Banned
I believe the movies have been increasingly more profitable...out of the three; not much to work with. But Man of Steel was the weakest. Wonder Woman will likely be in better shape than that, at least.
andythinkpad
Member
Wow it will outsell Ghost in the Shell, good job Warner!
Gordon Shumway
Banned
Don't see a single thing in the Bat family being cancelled. No way..
Hehehe..I can't imagine what won't do better. That shit bombed hard as fuck..
Ghost in the Shell's final domestic total would be considered a very disappointing opening weekend for Wonder Woman.
Crimson-Death
Member
foxuzamaki
Doesn't read OPs, especially not his own
I dont care about that, i cared about if people were excited to see a female superhero movie
AlfonzoPalutena
Member
I mean, the Guardians of the Galaxy were niche af, Doctor Strange too. Thor and Captain America weren't nearly as popular as Wonder Woman when their first films came out. Ant-Man too.
Let's not pretend this is a name recognition problem, it clearly isn't. It's either a marketing problem, tempered expectations for DC movies after BvS and Suicide Squad, general blockbuster / superhero fatigue, or a little bit of all the above
If Marvel can get the Guardians of the Galaxy to a $94m opening weekend, Wonder Woman should be able to go far beyond that, based on name recognition alone, even if she does pale in comparison to Batman or Superman
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
Guardians and Ant-Man did well because of the Marvel logo. Before the MCU blew up with Avengers, Cap and Thor were modest successes. Very modest in the case of Cap. And WW will probably do better than both these films, opening weekend at least. Comparing Guardians, Doctor Stange and even Ant-Man to WW really makes no sense given the context.
autumnleaf
Member
Not surprising. Unless the reviews are excellent (80%+ RT) I wouldn't expect great legs either. I imagine it will hit around 50% RT, 65% second week drop and then dissapear.
timetokill
Banned
Wonder Woman's name recognition alone should put her well beyond initial Cap/Thor.
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
Nah, not really. Name recognition doesn't equal popularity. Superman has more name recognition than Batman but the latter makes way more money for DC.
The WW comics sold like shit until last year, her only animated movie didn't sell enough initially to get a sequel, she doesn't have any videogames to her name and is virtually unknown or considered a joke in many countries. She is culturally significant in the US and maybe a few other places, but she doesn't rank much higher than Cap did before Avengers. And I say that as a fan.
Glass Rebel
Member
WW was never gonna compete with BvS and Suicide Squad is kind of an anomaly. While it might slightly underperform, I think that the longer term goal of the DCEU should be to actually make good movies.
Shadow Ranger
Member
I'm not watching it because it just doesn't look great.
Marvel though,just need to get Ms.Marvel (Kamala) out there and I'm there even if it is a bad movie.
timetokill
Banned
I don't think you can diminish the importance of name recognition in this case because it's literally the main reason this film is even being made. And since we're talking US box office I really only care about her cultural significance here. Comics, videogames, etc are male-dominated markets, especially back when they were doing the things you're talking about. Meanwhile there was a very successful (hilarious) TV show, probably partly due to the more even audience demographics.
I think her name recognition was significantly beyond Cap. She's literally the first female superhero most people think of when asked to think of one. Merchandise with her or her iconography has sold consistently despite a lack of media, because she is culturally relevant to women's rights and LGBT communities.
A lacking release indicates serious problems for DC. In audience fatigue, in a lack of enthusiasm for Snyder's take on the universe, in a take on the character that looks to travel in violence despite that not being the original intent of her character.
Chuckie
Member
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
We're clearly not going to agree on this but ever since the movie was announced and fans started speculating on the internet about WW's box-office potential, I've been completely baffled by how people overestimate her popularity.
The DCEU does have serious problems and if the movie opens well below $70M then it'll be clear that BvS did affect it negatively but I still fail to see how $83M would be anything else than a very healthy opening weekend for a character like Wonder Woman. She's well-known in the US but she's really not nearly as popular as some people on this forum appear to think. Even in the best of circumstances, I can't imagine her first solo film cracking the $100M mark.
Nobody on earth is going to care about that.
Gordon Shumway
Banned
We try to forget that one lol..
ArtHands
Thinks buying more servers can fix a bad patch
Unknown? People said she along with batman and superman will help push Batman v Superman pass $1billion
Chuckie
Member
Well I try not to Mr. Shumway!
The movie is terrible, but I had a crush on her when I was like 10
- Status