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[Moppeh]

I find it so fascinating that he hasn't dropped lower. The psychology of American voters is fascinating.

How long has this partisan dedication existed? What was the turning point in American society that lead to this defined political divide? Was it Fox News?

I'm Canadian and this sort of thing exists here to some degree. My Catholic family members almost always vote Liberal and my protestant family members vote Conservative but no one in my family shows the sort of dedication that is seen in America.

 

[Brinbe]

Get back to me when his base starts turning.

His floor is still too high.

 

[Zap Rowsdower]

I find it so fascinating that he hasn't dropped lower. The psychology of American voters is fascinating.

How long has this partisan dedication existed? What was the turning point in American society that lead to this defined political divide?

I'm Canadian and this sort of thing exists here to some degree. My Catholic family members almost always vote Liberal and my protestant family members vote Conservative but no one in my family shows the sort of dedication that is seen in America.

The 90's and the rise of Fox News and pundits like Limbaugh, both came about over right-wingers going crazy over Bill and Hillary. They've completely brainwashed a generation.

 

[SiegfriedFM]

Can you point out how you figured that out? Good to learn.

Isn't the wider cone the projected margins for error?

 

[OpinionatedCyborg]

He's on track to reach Bill Clinton numbers by June, which is the same month of the first term that Clinton hit rock bottom (37%).

http://www.gallup.com/poll/116584/presidential-approval-ratings-bill-clinton.aspx

 

[Miracle]

Still way too high for him.

His base still worships him.

 

[Syder]

Get back to me when his base starts turning.

His floor is still too high.

It has started though.

You just won't see much of it because if people come out as doubting Trump within Pro-Tump communities they're instantly censored.

 

[MetroidPrimeRib]

I find it so fascinating that he hasn't dropped lower. The psychology of American voters is fascinating.

How long has this partisan dedication existed? What was the turning point in American society that lead to this defined political divide? Was it Fox News?

I'm Canadian and this sort of thing exists here to some degree. My Catholic family members almost always vote Liberal and my protestant family members vote Conservative but no one in my family shows the sort of dedication that is seen in America.

It was Nixon then Fox News.

 

[Scotch]

some of the data points in that graph is above 50%

how

"Let's give him a chance!"
"Once he becomes president he'll start acting presidential."
Etc.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

The propaganda machine that preys upon willful ignorance is strong, and will keep him at 38% (or close) for the foreseeable future.

 

[Buckle]

The 90's and the rise of Fox News and pundits like Limbaugh, both came about over right-wingers going crazy over Bill and Hillary. They've completely brainwashed a generation.

Its absolutely frightening how Fox News and a lot of right wing nuts treat politics like a sport.

Its all spin nonstop. Like the only thing that matters is their guy wins no matter the cost. Its so fucked up. They can find out something horrible a republican did or is about to do that could ruin their life and their first instinct is always to protect them to their own detriment.

DEFLECT. DEFLECT. DEFLECT. FIND A WAY TO SHIELD TRUMP. Rinse and repeat.

Its a really terrible indictment of just how dangerous this sort of propaganda is when even Trump can't make them break the cycle.

 

[Yazzees]

The 90's and the rise of Fox News and pundits like Limbaugh, both came about over right-wingers going crazy over Bill and Hillary. They've completely brainwashed a generation.

A generation and a half.

I know plenty of dudes ages 17-21 who spout anti-clinton conspiracy shit that sounds straight out of the 90s.

 

[BlastProcessing]

I find it so fascinating that he hasn't dropped lower. The psychology of American voters is fascinating.

How long has this partisan dedication existed? What was the turning point in American society that lead to this defined political divide? Was it Fox News?

I'm Canadian and this sort of thing exists here to some degree. My Catholic family members almost always vote Liberal and my protestant family members vote Conservative but no one in my family shows the sort of dedication that is seen in America.

It started in the 70's with the Southern Strategy and then was really set in stone in the 90's. This book is a very good primer on how things got to where they are.

 

[Saucycarpdog]

Man, Truman was really popular.

 

[Cerium]

Legitimate question: Can someone explain why these numbers are more reliable than the polling leading up to election day?

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

He's on track to reach Bill Clinton numbers by June, which is the same month of the first term that Clinton hit rock bottom (37%).

http://www.gallup.com/poll/116584/presidential-approval-ratings-bill-clinton.aspx

You're comparing the 538 aggregate with the Gallup single poll. By that metric, Trump hit rock bottom months ago at 35%

 

[Chmpocalypse]

These people are complete nuts, you cannot reason with them... Just say "please don't talk to me, keep a distance from me" and don't just ask to avoid to talk about politics.

I'm warming up to the idea of just completely shunning idiots like that. No time​ of day, no help, not even eye contact. Fuck them. Act like they don't exist, because in 20fucking17 they shouldn't.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Legitimate question: Can someone explain why these numbers are more reliable than the polling leading up to election day?

For one, the polls for the election weren't as inaccurate as you probably think, and 2, they are measuring two entirely different things. Election polls are basically 'who will you vote,' and these polls are, 'How do you approve of what he's doing.'

 

[Ogodei]

For one, the polls for the election weren't as inaccurate as you probably think, and 2, they are measuring two entirely different things. Election polls are basically 'who will you vote,' and these polls are, 'How do you approve of what he's doing.'

Approval numbers in a two-party system also have the problem of getting disapproval from their own side which help magnify it: Trump getting cucked over the wall funding and the Muslim ban, along with the Syrian Airstrikes possibly shook people who were ardent voters and who would never vote Democrat.

Similar to why part of the reason why the ACA had such a low approval rating: single-payer boosters were sinking the number from the left, sometimes as much as 15% of the population, but none of those are people cheering for AHCA.

 

[The Albatross]

I don't know why people want to always bring up the election polls in these discussions to be honest. It's an entirely different type of measuring.

And not only that, but within 2 weeks of the election, the polls were pretty much right. Most polls had Clinton with a 1-4% victory, and the typical 2% margin of error. In the end, she got a 2% victory, in the territory.

But, obviously, she lost the electoral college.

What were wrong were specific local polls in a handful of those key states, which are notoriously difficult to predict because it's usually done by local universities, colleges, or small media outlets without a lot of staff. In the end they weren't even that off. Trump won some of those battleground states by a much smaller percentage off from the polls than Clinton with the general popular vote.

 

[Robdraggoo]

I wish it were true. But I have a hard time believing poll data anymore after feeling so betrayed by them last fall.

 

[Massicot]

I still think it's crazy that 4 out of every 10 people approve of him..

 

[wildfire]

Read my first post in this thread. You can expect big sudden drops. What's important is:

1) Trump Opposition solidifies the way Hillary's opposition solidifies

2) VERY SLOWLY chipping away at the undecideds and supporters

3) Fox News continues its downward spiral into a full-on Breitbart network, which will be its downfall. And once Fox goes down, the GOP has nothing.

Fox NEws isn't going to become a Breitbart.

All indicators suggest they will maintain their conservative creds but with new less sexist and maybe less racist faces.

 

[Justin Bailey]

If it's above 0% it's too high.

 

[TestOfTide]

Fox NEws isn't going to become a Breitbart.

All indicators suggest they will maintain their conservative creds but with new less sexist and maybe less racist faces.

Fox News is already going full on-breitbart considering:

- They are literally using the term "Deep State"
- Rather than using dogwhistles about a media conspiracy like they used to, they are now EXPLICITLY claiming one
- They are having Ted fucking Nugent all over the channel
- The only people left on the channel who know how to sound not crazy are Shep Smith, Chris Wallace, and Charles Krauthammer. Everyone else left is incapable of appealing outside of Trump's fanbase.
- They are LITERALLY pushing other conspiracy theories as well and recklessly. I can guarantee you that if Ailes types were still in charge there would be orders around fox to never explicitly suggest that Seth Rich was murdered by the DNC

Like I said before, the reason Fox News was able to rise to power wasn't JUST its appeal to conservatives, but the fact that they knew how to dogwhistle it so as not to turn off moderates and pseudo-moderates.

 

[Mr.Shrugglesツ]

Fox NEws isn't going to become a Breitbart.

All indicators suggest they will maintain their conservative creds but with new less sexist and maybe less racist faces.

What are these conservative creds?

 

[TestOfTide]

What are these conservative creds?

They DID have conservative creds pre-Trump when they were good at selling their bullshit to more than just hardcore Trump supporters.

But now they are basically Breitbart TV. I even expect Hannity to say something anti-Semitic within the next 3 months.

 

[Cerium]

For one, the polls for the election weren't as inaccurate as you probably think, and 2, they are measuring two entirely different things. Election polls are basically 'who will you vote,' and these polls are, 'How do you approve of what he's doing.'

They were inaccurate enough. And while the question might be different, I need convincing before I put my faith back into the methodology.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Fox NEws isn't going to become a Breitbart.

All indicators suggest they will maintain their conservative creds but with new less sexist and maybe less racist faces.

Last week was the worst i've ever seen them though.

1.Wouldn't report breaking news
2.Would pretend like the news was fake (Anon sources!)
3.Pretend like it wasnt a big deal even if it was true
4.Talk about THE LIBERAL MEDIA!
5.Talk about how the DNC assassinated Seth Richards, this isnt far off from Pizzagate type bullshit.

 

[SJurgenson]

The propaganda machine that preys upon willful ignorance is strong, and will keep him at 38% (or close) for the foreseeable future.

Still way too high for him.

His base still worships him.

Get back to me when his base starts turning.

His floor is still too high.

I still think it's crazy that 4 out of every 10 people approve of him..

If it's above 0% it's too high.

Everyone needs to get over this "Who cares? It does not matter until the numbers hit [X]..." nonsense.

You have to realize several things:

1. A large group of people would approve of a cracked vial of live anthrax if it has a '(R)' next to it's name.
2. Think about your conception of someone of 'average intelligence' -- then think 20% lower, and you've you've got a 30% unwavering base.
3. Beyond those immovable by lack of intelligence, or unprincipled adherence to the Republican party -- you have those that are not properly informed, through either their inaction or their lack of access to information.

Get over this 'It's not far enogugh' bullshit. There is never going to be a magical drop or snapping point. Just start presuming that 25% of respondents are completely approving no matter what happens. Just subtract them from your considerations.

Additinally, I don't feel like writing a rant on this, but poll numbers at certain percentages are not the only thing affecting how congressional Republicans act.

 

[Lord Frieza]

They were inaccurate enough. And while the question might be different, I need convincing before I put my faith back into the methodology.

They were within the margin of error

 

[jellies_two]

Another thing is Fox is losing in ratings

They won for so long by: being critical, putting rumors ahead of facts, having hysterics and so on.

Now Murdoch has them running a Save Trump And My Tax Cuts strategy, they are BORING. Trump is making their competition look interesting by fucking up constantly.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Last week was the worst i've ever seen them though.

1.Wouldn't report breaking news
2.Would pretend like the news was fake (Anon sources!)
3.Pretend like it wasnt a big deal even if it was true
4.Talk about THE LIBERAL MEDIA!
5.Talk about how the DNC assassinated Seth Richards, this isnt far off from Pizzagate type bullshit.

I will point of that 4 is extremely common for that network, so that really wasn't anything​ outside the ordinary. The others, yeah.

 

[Kusagari]

Fox News is already going full on-breitbart considering:

- They are literally using the term "Deep State"
- Rather than using dogwhistles about a media conspiracy like they used to, they are now EXPLICITLY claiming one
- They are having Ted fucking Nugent all over the channel
- The only people left on the channel who know how to sound not crazy are Shep Smith, Chris Wallace, and Charles Krauthammer. Everyone else left is incapable of appealing outside of Trump's fanbase.
- They are LITERALLY pushing other conspiracy theories as well and recklessly. I can guarantee you that if Ailes types were still in charge there would be orders around fox to never explicitly suggest that Seth Rich was murdered by the DNC

Like I said before, the reason Fox News was able to rise to power wasn't JUST its appeal to conservatives, but the fact that they knew how to dogwhistle it so as not to turn off moderates and pseudo-moderates.

The Murdoch Sons still aren't in control right? I feel like this is Murdoch's last gasp before they take over.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Another thing is Fox is losing in ratings

They won for so long by: being critical, putting rumors ahead of facts, having hysterics and so on.

Now Murdoch has them running a Save Trump And My Tax Cuts strategy, they are BORING. Trump is making their competition look interesting by fucking up constantly.

Fox is still overall ahead in the ratings I'm pretty sure, but the demographics for them shews very old. I mean, all of cable news is mostly older nowadays, but it goes to show who the majority of the audience is.

 

[Burli]

Before you guys get complacent about Trump's lowered approval rating, keep in mind, this is how his supporters still feel about the shitbag:

Spoiler

I'd like suggestions on how to combat this - is it even possible?

Impossible and pointless. Diehards aren't the demographic that needs convincing to vote for Dems during the mid-terms/next election. Save your energy for swing voters and disillusioned Republicans.

 

[TestOfTide]

Last week was the worst i've ever seen them though.

1.Wouldn't report breaking news
2.Would pretend like the news was fake (Anon sources!)
3.Pretend like it wasnt a big deal even if it was true
4.Talk about THE LIBERAL MEDIA!
5.Talk about how the DNC assassinated Seth Richards, this isnt far off from Pizzagate type bullshit.

Arkham gets it.

Fox News has been strong for years, but this past year has really hurt the network:

- They lost Ailes because the women he groped and harassed were sick of his bullshit
- They lost O'Reilly because Ailes was the only reason O'Reilly shit hadn't come out before
- Greta and Kelly left because MSNBC had better deals for them
- Ratings have actually been starting to slip because the vast majority of news/politics watchers are looking to feed that anti-Trump itch.
- Fox was banking on feeding an Anti-Hillary itch and that all fell apart when Hillary lost
- and of course lets not forget that this was all after Fox tried and failed to keep Trump from winning the primaries

Fox without it's best expert Bullshit artists is like a shark without teeth.

 

[jellies_two]

Fox is still overall ahead in the ratings I'm pretty sure, but the demographics for them shews very old. I mean, all of cable news is mostly older nowadays, but it goes to show who the majority of the audience is.

Fox is now #2 in prime time for all viewers
And nowhere for 22-54 demographic

http://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/scoreboard-thursday-may-18/329789

Still head in total all day - but its a trend they will hate.

 

[SJurgenson]

Fox is now #2 in prime time for all viewers
And nowhere for 22-54 demographic

http://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/scoreboard-thursday-may-18/329789

Still head in total all day - but its a trend they will hate.

I have a feeling that (similar to congressional Republicans) the switch from being an an oppositional force to a supporting one has been a stumbling block.

When they were oppositional, it was so very easy to just say "it's those other guys fault, they have the power! Your problems are because they won't act!" -- but when you now support those in power, what can you do? Those people still have the same problems -- blaming Democrats when they have no brances of elected government will not get you very far.

 

[TestOfTide]

I have a feeling that (similar to congressional Republicans) the switch from being an an oppositional force to a supporting one has been a stumbling block.

When they were oppositional, it was so very easy to just say "it's those other guys fault, they have the power! Your problems are because they won't act!" -- but when you now support those in power, what can you do? Those people still have the same problems -- blaming Democrats when they have no brances of elected government will not get you very far.

It's not just that though. Fox no longer has its best bullshit talkers.

The way they were set up in the past was:

- Fox and Friends would be carefully worded wink wink nudge nudge crap
- The actual news section (9-5) would TECHNICALLY News, but would mostly focus on antiDemocrat stories
- 5 O'clock would be when they have their "humorous" 5 person panel with one token liberal
- 6 O'clock would be their more "serious" panel with Bret Baer that would at least TRY to be like a genuine news panel
- 7 O'Clock would be Greta for what was the supposed to be the "moderate" show, even if in truth she was a pushover to conservatives
- 8 O'Clock was the big Hour with Bill. basically where the Fox News team put most of their energy at selling their bullshit as effectively as possible
- 9 O'Clock was Megan Kelly to appeal to suburban conservatives
- And finally before the reruns at 11, 10 O'clock was Hannity to have the show where someone would just unrelentingly go full-on cradling conservative testicles

But with Kelly, Greta, Bill, and Aires all gone, they don't have their set plan anymore. Now it's just:

- Fox and Friends in the morning where the team sucks up to Trump
- 9-5 to just constantly talk about the Middle East and North Korea because that's the only factual news they want to cover
- 5 O'clock is no longer funny because it's just everyone whining about all the mean things said about Trump. Oh now they have Ted fucking nugent
- 6 O'clock is no longer serious because it's just everyone whining about all the mean things said about Trump
- 7 O'clock is a nobody
- 8 O'clock is Fucker Carlson on to cradle GOP testicles and whine about all the mean stuff said about Trump
- 9 O'clock is Hannity now LITERALLY claiming that the Intelligence Community are a bunch of traitors and every other dumbass conspiracy theory

 

[Ernest]

Fuck those people. They are irredeemable monsters with no place in society. Treat them like ghosts.

If it possible, it doesnt matter. These people dont deserve you words or your time, use them on something thats actually worth a damn.

These people are complete nuts, you cannot reason with them... Just say "please don't talk to me, keep a distance from me" and don't just ask to avoid to talk about politics.

These people actually happen to be family and family friends - some distant, some not so distant.
Thankfully I have no personal friends like this - acquaintances, but not real friends.

What do all these people have in common? 10 to 15 years of constant Fox News.

And Trump is the first candidate and now president who regurgitates all those Fox talking points back at them. They built a cult, and now their leader is one of their own brain-washed.

Many of these are people I've known my whole life, and I distinctly remember them pre-Fox and post-Fox, and while they're essentially the same people, their views, fears and hopes have been tainted for the worst. And now Trump is their savior.

Thankfully, because Trump is SO terrible, some have started to come around. But it's very few, and it's been very slow. The brain-washing is real.

 

[ahoyhoy]

It's not just that though. Fox no longer has its best bullshit talkers.

The way they were set up in the past was:

- Fox and Friends would be carefully worded wink wink nudge nudge crap
- The actual news section (9-5) would TECHNICALLY News, but would mostly focus on antiDemocrat stories
- 5 O'clock would be when they have their "humorous" 5 person panel with one token liberal
- 6 O'clock would be their more "serious" panel with Bret Baer that would at least TRY to be like a genuine news panel
- 7 O'Clock would be Greta for what was the supposed to be the "moderate" show, even if in truth she was a pushover to conservatives
- 8 O'Clock was the big Hour with Bill. basically where the Fox News team put most of their energy at selling their bullshit as effectively as possible
- 9 O'Clock was Megan Kelly to appeal to suburban conservatives
- And finally before the reruns at 11, 10 O'clock was Hannity to have the show where someone would just unrelentingly go full-on cradling conservative testicles

But with Kelly, Greta, Bill, and Aires all gone, they don't have their set plan anymore. Now it's just:

- Fox and Friends in the morning where the team sucks up to Trump
- 9-5 to just constantly talk about the Middle East and North Korea because that's the only factual news they want to cover
- 5 O'clock is no longer funny because it's just everyone whining about all the mean things said about Trump. Oh now they have Ted fucking nugent
- 6 O'clock is no longer serious because it's just everyone whining about all the mean things said about Trump
- 7 O'clock is a nobody
- 8 O'clock is Fucker Carlson on to cradle GOP testicles and whine about all the mean stuff said about Trump
- 9 O'clock is Hannity now LITERALLY claiming that the Intelligence Community are a bunch of traitors and every other dumbass conspiracy theory

I catch a bit of the 5 o'clock show while I'm at the gym and I was amazed that they found a way to make it even more partisan. They don't even have their token liberal anymore, just a panel of various conservatives complaining about how the liberal media is ruining America.

How can people watch this day after day.

 

[gutter_trash]

lol wrong thread

 

[TestOfTide]

These people actually happen to be family and family friends - some distant, some not so distant.
Thankfully I have no personal friends like this - acquaintances, but not real friends.

What do all these people have in common? 10 to 15 years of constant Fox News.

And Trump is the first candidate and now president who regurgitates all those Fox talking points back at them. They built a cult, and now their leader is one of their own brain-washed.

Many of these are people I've known my whole life, and I distinctly remember them pre-Fox and post-Fox, and while they're essentially the same people, their views, fears and hopes have been tainted for the worst. And now Trump is their savior.

Thankfully, because Trump is SO terrible, some have started to come around. But it's very few, and it's been very slow. The brain-washing is real.

As someone whose mom used to be an avid Fox News watcher, here is the best advice I can give you:

1) Focus on those few who are slowly turning away from fox. It will be painfully slow, but over time you WILL be able to loosen the Fox Grip on them.

2) With the few that CAN be slowly turned, always start with the easiest, most agreeable battles, then very slowly work your way from there. And give them constant positive feedback that shows you really appreciate that they are breaking from the conservative trance at least to some degree.

3) With those that are only getting more and more hardcore and only more and more conspiracy theorist, your objective is not to change their dumb views, but instead to put a muzzle on them however you can so that you have a much easier time with those that CAN be won over.

 

[R10Neymarfan]

Still too high

There needs to be an event where the diehard party liners start to realize he's harming them.
Trumpeter will ever if rarely convert. But it seems like both aren't budging too much. These are mostly independents realizing they made a mistake

 

[Cerium]

They were within the margin of error

538 gave Clinton a 75% chance of winning. Every other aggregate gave her 99%.

Maybe a couple individual polls were within the margin of error but that's not reflective of how utterly statistics failed us in 2016.

 

[soundahfekz]

Before you guys get complacent about Trump's lowered approval rating, keep in mind, this is how his supporters still feel about the shitbag:

Spoiler

I'd like suggestions on how to combat this - is it even possible?

I'm waiting for the docu that shows like 50% of these asshats being Russians stirring up shit. I'd be willing to bet a reasonably significant portion of his online supporters are

 

[TestOfTide]

Still too high

There needs to be an event where the diehard party liners start to realize he's harming them.
Trumpeter will ever if rarely convert. But it seems like both aren't budging too much. These are mostly independents realizing they made a mistake

My previous posts cover this, but I'll say it one more time:

Stop expecting big sudden shifts in the polls. Bush Jr didn't get down to only 27% approval due to big sudden shifts. It happened slowly as a negative narrative was hardened more and more about the Bush Admin.

538 gave Clinton a 75% chance of winning. Every other aggregate gave her 99%.

Maybe a couple individual polls were within the margin of error but that's not reflective of how utterly statistics failed us in 2016.

The main problem is that pollsters were fucking up with certain states.

However, the national polls were technically only predicting the popular vote, which Hillary DID win.

 

[Stumpokapow]

538 gave Clinton a 75% chance of winning. Every other aggregate gave her 99%.

538 gave Clinton a 71% chance of winning (65% before the final weekend) and concluded "There are far more undecided voters this year", "Polling errors are correlated across states — and could put Clinton at risk or put red states in play". NYT gave her 85%. Only Sam Wang at Princeton (a physics PhD, not a statistician) gave her 99%. So far your memory has exhibited more polling error than the actual polls did.

Maybe a couple individual polls were within the margin of error but that's not reflective of how utterly statistics failed us in 2016.

"Statistics" didn't fail us; modeling and inference perhaps failed us (many aggregators did not allow for regionally correlated polling errors), but even then I think the case is unproven given the evidence of late-breaking movement not captured by polls. If polls take three days to run, then anything that was still being priced in in the last 3 days of the election would not be incorporated in polls. Is that likely to cause a 10% vote swing? No. Is it plausible that it caused a 3-4% vote swing in 3-4 states? Yes, absolutely.

 

[AdventureRacing]

That's still an alarmingly high number of approval. That's why it's hard to really care if trump is removed from power. It doesn't change the fact that so many people voted for him and that so many still support him in spite of everything. That's a scary thought.