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UK General Election 2017 |OT2| No Government is better than a bad Government

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OK so for post war "worst PM" you have:

1. Sir Alec Douglas-Home, who was at the helm when the Tories lost in 1964. He made almost no impact as PM.

2. Antony Eden, he of the Suez Crisis.

3. Theresa May, she who managed to go from Boudicca to the Wicked Witch of the West in a very short amount of time.

On Labour's side:

1. Callaghan, the last PM of the era of Consensus. Winter of Discontent happened on his watch. Government ultimately collapsed just before its time was up, letting in Thatcher.

2. Gordon Brown, who loved and lost Prudence, then learned the consequences of coveting the PM job.

I do think the consensus as worst will still be Eden.
 
OK so for post war "worst PM" you have:

1. Sir Alec Douglas-Home, who was at the helm when the Tories lost in 1964. He made almost no impact as PM.

2. Antony Eden, he of the Suez Crisis.

3. Theresa May, she who managed to go from Boudicca to the Wicked Witch of the West in a very short amount of time.

On Labour's side:

1. Callaghan, the last PM of the era of Consensus. Winter of Discontent happened on his watch. Government ultimately collapsed just before its time was up, letting in Thatcher.

2. Gordon Brown, who loved and lost Prudence, then learned the consequences of coveting the PM job.

I do think the consensus as worst will still be Eden.

Cameron.
 
Just to say, as an older poster, we have been here before. Don't forget that whilst she suffered a humiliating step down over expectations, May still got the most votes despite everything. Also don't forget that after the poll tax riots, even then they managed to scrape together another conservative government under Major once they replaced the figurehead.

It's not over till the Tory lady sings basically.
Very important point. Never ever preempt the killing off of tories. That shit gets older voters out in full on fuck you got mine mode.

Basically the young can't disappear ever, to ever have a chance of a better society.
 

Won twice, including an outright majority. Led a country that introduced both very bad and very good legislation. Took one too many gambles as PM and ultimately paid the price.

Hard to judge Cameron - I think being able to win an election and get a majority might save you from a "worst" list.

And yes you have to remember the situation in the country: the Tories secured a huge chunk of the vote. Once they axe May, if they can get in a unifying leader they may have a decent shot of holding Corbyn at bay.

There is some young unknown Tory MP right now who is plotting for the leadership right now, mark my words.
 
Gordon Brown wasn't even bad IMO, he gets a real bad rap.

Agreed, he got a rough deal. He would have been a solid PM had the financial crisis not happened, but it happened on his watch after a decade as Chancellor. Hard to escape that.

Labour's not had a truly duff PM in the same way the Tories have had a few.

But any "worst PM" competition has to beat Eden.
 
It will always be Cameron for taking us out of the EU to settle party politics and then quitting

people who can't see that now will as the years pass.
 
Cameron has major problems and you can argue his only upsides were related to him having Liberal votes to rely on. Brexit too is extremely damning. But is that as bad as Eden or May? Hmm.
 
Come on "almost losing Scotland"? You either lose it or you don't, and he didn't.

But he did almost lose Scotland. That was no landslide victory in favor of union. And besides, what did the prime minister do the next day? His speech in front of Number 10 wasn't conciliatory; he started talking about EVEL and neglected a greater constitutional context. He weakened the union within hours of holding on to it. That isn't Cameron's failure alone, of course! But he has to accept responsibility for his inability to take advantage of his victory. Instead of doing the hard work of a new uniform arrangement for the constituent countries, he went off on his EU referendum adventure and didn't come back.
 
When your mistake is the biggest mistake in modern political history. Well yeah it'll get you up there

I mean, Eden has the Suez Canal. Sometimes one big fuckup really is all it takes.

That said, I think many won't appreciate Cameron's foolishness until years have passed.
 
The parallels with self harming Eden are really freaky.

An interesting factoid about Eden:

He was also prescribed Benzedrine, the wonder drug of the 1950s. Regarded then as a harmless stimulant, it belongs to the family of drugs called amphetamines, and at that time they were prescribed and used in a very casual way. Among the side effects of Benzedrine are insomnia, restlessness, and mood swings, all of which Eden suffered during the Suez Crisis; indeed, earlier in his premiership he complained of being kept awake at night by the sound of motor scooters.[163] Eden's drug use is now commonly agreed to have been a part of the reason for his bad judgment while Prime Minister.[4]
 
Without Brexit no one would be talking about Cameron on the worst PM list. Simple as that.

that's how bad it is

I would maybe go so far to say that had he actually stuck around and see it through it wouldn't be as bad but the fact he just quit and left everyone else holding the bag puts him right up there.
 
Considering the current circumstances FWIW, I have some predictions to make:

1. May steps down as leader some time as early August, allowing time for a new leader to be elected by the Tory conference in September. The new leader is a surprise, and has either not had a major cabinet role in the past or is a young backbencher.

2. Corbyn carries on riding high in the polls until the new leader emerges, at which time the new PM will get a bump.

3. The new PM will use conference and the reaction to themselves as PM as the deciding factor on if to go ahead with a snap election.

4. Stormont and Brexit are difficult to call. I think May will probably do everything possible to get Stormont working, because a flaring up of violence in NI during the marching season and the imposition of direct rule is a wombo combo that nobody in their right minds would do. Given the government's Brexit plan is, as far as any commentator can tell, to walk out of negotiations, they are up a creek without a paddle. As we start knocking months more off the schedule, this is something the public might begin to get very nervous about.

So here's some scenarios:

1. May manages to do Stormont, the Queen's Speech and the first chunk of Brexit talks amazingly well. This allows her to hold on as PM.

1a. The above does not happen but out of 300 plus MPs there is exactly nobody who wants the job so she clings on anyway.

2. May goes in August, we get a surprise new PM and that PM thinks they can beat Corbyn in a GE. Parliament reconvenes after the conference season. Labour really want another election and the Tories might be emboldened by a new leader.

2a. The new leader is Hammond, BoJo or another of the badly-smeared May cabinet and take over as caretaker PM. They do not call a GE and Corbyn and McDonnell have to keep the momentum going for two years, which could be hard.

So at this point it all depends on when May steps down, who replaces her and how good a choice that is. It is critical for the Tories, if they wish to remain in power, to find a serious alternative, likely someone young, who can beat Corbyn. But I am seriously struggling to think of someone who can do that.
 
I think there are multiple damning parts to Cameron's role in Brexit. He didn't learn any lessons from how close a thing the Scotland referendum was. He didn't notice that a campaign based only on negativity can put people off or numb them to downsides. He still went onto gamble with people's futures for his own political gain. He didn't have any sort of plan in place for the Brexit procedure. No road map or goals outlined for negotiations. Then he fucks off to leave a mess he had a hand in creating. I'm not sure where that puts him on a list of worst PMs but it's got to be worse than just being ineffective.
 
Considering the current circumstances FWIW, I have some predictions to make:

1. May steps down as leader some time as early August, allowing time for a new leader to be elected by the Tory conference in September. The new leader is a surprise, and has either not had a major cabinet role in the past or is a young backbencher.

2. Corbyn carries on riding high in the polls until the new leader emerges, at which time the new PM will get a bump.

3. The new PM will use conference and the reaction to themselves as PM as the deciding factor on if to go ahead with a snap election.

4. Stormont and Brexit are difficult to call. I think May will probably do everything possible to get Stormont working, because a flaring up of violence in NI during the marching season and the imposition of direct rule is a wombo combo that nobody in their right minds would do. Given the government's Brexit plan is, as far as any commentator can tell, to walk out of negotiations, they are up a creek without a paddle. As we start knocking months more off the schedule, this is something the public might begin to get very nervous about.

So here's some scenarios:

1. May manages to do Stormont, the Queen's Speech and the first chunk of Brexit talks amazingly well. This allows her to hold on as PM.

1a. The above does not happen but out of 300 plus MPs there is exactly nobody who wants the job so she clings on anyway.

2. May goes in August, we get a surprise new PM and that PM thinks they can beat Corbyn in a GE. Parliament reconvenes after the conference season. Labour really want another election and the Tories might be emboldened by a new leader.

2a. The new leader is Hammond, BoJo or another of the badly-smeared May cabinet and take over as caretaker PM. They do not call a GE and Corbyn and McDonnell have to keep the momentum going for two years, which could be hard.

So at this point it all depends on when May steps down, who replaces her and how good a choice that is. It is critical for the Tories, if they wish to remain in power, to find a serious alternative, likely someone young, who can beat Corbyn. But I am seriously struggling to think of someone who can do that.
Not sure how it would look to the public to suddenly be told that the person representing your country is a complete unknown who hasn't held a significant government post. It'll always be weighing them down unless if they call a snap election and get a mandate.
 
Actually I think the smartest move from the Tory perspective would be for a Scottish Tory MP to vanish mysteriously, a by-election makes Ruth Davidson an MP and she goes for the leadership.

Not sure how it would look to the public to suddenly be told that the person representing your country is a complete unknown who hasn't held a significant government post.

... Jeremy Corbyn?
 
So at this point it all depends on when May steps down, who replaces her and how good a choice that is. It is critical for the Tories, if they wish to remain in power, to find a serious alternative, likely someone young, who can beat Corbyn. But I am seriously struggling to think of someone who can do that.

This will be the really fascinating thing going forward. I wonder if there's a scope for a potential "New Conservatives" style party to form that's more central, to try and distance themselves from the disaster that has been the last 7 years. Would be a massive risk though.
 
Actually I think the smartest move from the Tory perspective would be for a Scottish Tory MP to vanish mysteriously, a by-election makes Ruth Davidson an MP and she goes for the leadership.



... Jeremy Corbyn?

Ruth with the DUP wont mix at all

Jezza has had 2 years as leader of the opposition, he isnt a nobody
 
This will be the really fascinating thing going forward. I wonder if there's a scope for a potential "New Conservatives" style party to form that's more central, to try and distance themselves from the disaster that has been the last 7 years. Would be a massive risk though.
Old folk have no where to go on most issues. I don't know why they don't swallow their obsession with hurting anyone on social security. It's the single biggest manifestation of their cuntishness. With most people knowing someone affected by it.
 
Yeah Churchill was notorious for his drinking.

Edit - Or was that a myth?

Churchill was a full blown alcoholic, in a time when it was relatively normal to be a heavy drinker he was notorious for it.

Other conquering alcoholics include Ogedei Khan, Sherman and Alexander.

Ogedei agreed to be limited to one cup of alcohol a day after his friends and advisers badgered him. The cup was the size of a bath.

Napoleon was off his rocker on Laudanum by the time of Waterloo.

It's a really interesting history niche.
 
Actually I think the smartest move from the Tory perspective would be for a Scottish Tory MP to vanish mysteriously, a by-election makes Ruth Davidson an MP and she goes for the leadership.



... Jeremy Corbyn?
What relevance does the guy who isn't representing the UK have? Should he have been elected PM he would have held the post of shadow leader for 2 years anyway, along with an obvious mandate. You're talking about someone going from backbencher to PM overnight.
 
Actually I think the smartest move from the Tory perspective would be for a Scottish Tory MP to vanish mysteriously, a by-election makes Ruth Davidson an MP and she goes for the leadership.



... Jeremy Corbyn?

Has Ruth Davidson come out of hiding yet? She was last seen running away from a Channel four interviewer.

This idea of Davidson people have will not last. She's pretty brittle under questioning, and has a real nasty sneering side which is pretty easy to provoke. She's also extremely inconsistent.

She's ran a very good single issue campaign, but starved of that issue I'll wager she'll struggle.

And thanks to EVEL none of the grand offices of state (apart from Foreign Secretary) are going to be non English again. You're not going to have a PM, Chancellor or Home Sec who can't vote on most of their legislative slate.
 
Actually I think the smartest move from the Tory perspective would be for a Scottish Tory MP to vanish mysteriously, a by-election makes Ruth Davidson an MP and she goes for the leadership.

I can't see the Tories winning a by-election in Scotland in the current climate, even if Ruth is representing them.
 
Ruth with the DUP wont mix at all

Jezza has had 2 years as leader of the opposition, he isnt a nobody

Wouldn't need to be any work with the DUP at all, she'd be gunning for a majority or bust.

The last two breakout successes in British politics were Corbyn and Clegg, so I don't think the public care if the person they are being asked to vote for is an unknown as long as they are able to make a huge impact on the campaign trail.

I can't see the Tories winning a by-election in Scotland in the current climate, even if Ruth is representing them.

This is why it would be a massive risk. All four parties would throw everything at that by-election, and as RP showed even my lot can be effective in Tory-facing seats at a by-election. It'd be a bloody three or four way contest. But Davidson is the only Tory I can think of right now that could fix this.
 
He failed to hold the general election everyone thought he should do in 2007 thus condemning us to the ConDem austerity in 2010
I'm sure he would have held the election in 2007 if he knew the global economy was about to collapse. I don't see how that can be held against him.

Cameron has major problems and you can argue his only upsides were related to him having Liberal votes to rely on. Brexit too is extremely damning. But is that as bad as Eden or May? Hmm.
While May has demonstrated incredible electoral incompetence, the policy quagmire she finds herself in is almost entirely Cameron's doing.
 
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