Latest Survation poll post election would see them lose 6 of their seats.
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UK General Election 2017 |OT2| No Government is better than a bad Government
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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Latest Survation poll post election would see them lose 6 of their seats.
Billy_Pilgrim
Member
I'm particularly happy for a death by a thousand cuts approach to her government dismantling itself. Next year would be good for an election, with her and her scumbag cronies suffering every day leading up to it.
But then I'm not a particularly nice person and enjoy the schadenfreude after watching family members in distress for years over cuts to disability benefits and my own concerns about expensive NHS treatments I need to live a normal life.
Corbyn and Clegg weren't made PM by their party. You're suggesting something completely different and the public will most certainly care unless if they win a snap election soon after and get a mandate. It's too risky for the Tories and their gambles haven't exactly paid off recently, better to go with a boring, known quantity.
Huw_Dawson
Member
By-elections are a different beast and it would be a party leader going for a seat. Hard to call exactly what would happen if the seat in question was fought outside a general election.
Oh just to be clear, I'd expect such a Tory messiah to be PM for about two months - I think even if the Tories such a politician they are still doomed in a new election. But it's either roll the dice soon or guarantee a Corbynite government when the country is dragged back to the polls.
frankie_baby
Member
We cant its just a hindsight thing, he would have won in 2007, the economy would have tanked in 2008, he'd have got it going again in 2009/10 like he did and then by 2012 the economy would have been booming and thus whether he won or not in 2012 we wouldnt gave had austerity
That poll was before Grenfell.
Chickens FINALLY bloody coming home to roost with their disastrous disability policies.
This shit gives me a semi
Huw_Dawson
Member
Fundamentally wrong, that Tweet. The classic Corbyn voter is a Remainer who ranks the EU situation as less important than home affairs. Maybe if there was a super good campaign by the LDs at a November election that changed people's minds you'd get Remainers being peeled off the Corbyn ship, but folks voted for Corbyn for reasons nothing to do with Brexit.
This election was fought on "what next".
This election was fought on "what next".
frankie_baby
Member
Corbyn's voters are the labour leavers and the remainers who just want to get on with it but give us a good deal
All it took were 7 years of austerity, numbers going to food banks going up, the economy tanking, the NHS getting more dangerous and staff demoralised, police numbers getting cut, students getting shafted, the disabled getting shafted harder, Britain leaving the EU, Tories abandoning their older voter base for more cuts, entertaining a coalition with the DUP, dozens of people dying in a fire due to a Tory council prioritising costs over safety, and an emotionless robot for a PM. But we're getting there...
That's a great Twitter bio right there.
Billy_Pilgrim
Member
I was pretty involved in the GE campaign so I think I'm in a good position to comment.
Corbyn's constituency ended up being something that neither the hard left or the blairites expected. It was a mix of enthusiastic, soft left young people (the type who wouldn't know socialism if it hit them in the balls but liked the sound of the policies anyway), those disenfranchised by the farce of brexit and almost the entire built in Labour vote. There were quite a few kippers coming back into the fold too, though more of them went Tory up here based upon the door knocking I did.
Nobody really cared about the socialism, they just saw an outreach to better public services. No one really cared about the IRA/Hamas/Hezbollah stuff, they were worried about their own circumstances first and foremost.
The Corbyn we got in the election was a more professionalised version than the one that won in 2015 and the manifesto was nigh on perfect millibandism with no suicidal foreign policy or defence wackiness.
Key to winning next time is recognising that neither of the major factions had a clue what was actually going on and a different beast emerged. The tories palling up with the DUP is a gift to the likes of me that cannot be priced; in one fell swoop the have completely dismantled most of the arguments and concerns that the 40% of us who voted against Corbyn in 2016 had.
Air Zombie Meat
Member
And all this time we've had arrogant tories gloating about it all and patting themselves on the back. A backlash was long overdue.
Yep I still can't believe how quickly food banks were absorbed and accepted into the public's mind.
It's disgusting and a perfect example of the hateful society we are becoming.
frankie_baby
Member
I think the fact its taken til this year for foodbanks to even appear in a soap may have played a part, for a lot of at least better off ordinary people the only exposure to them they have has been channel 5 benefit scum porn and who's gonna care about the people on them
Audioboxer
Member
Those polls prior to Grenfell will largely be Scots waking up post election and going "I've made a huge mistake". Now after what has gone on the last few days I'd be pretty at a loss if more of the new Scottish Tories aren't joining those who had a change of heart after seeing 13 seats and May's hung parliament/DUP dealings.
"I just voted Tory for the Union" quickly changes to "I really should have voted Labour/Lib Dem for the union". Scots getting to see if you vote Tory you get Tory regardless of your "one issue voting". Politics doesn't quite work like that. If you put a government in "for one issue" you get what that Government does across all issues.
Completely genuine question here: what part of the Manifesto or the programme he ran on has socialism in the strict sense of ownership & control of the means of production in a democratic manner? If the answer to that question is nothing then obviously nobody would care since it's not there, and anything else is just scaremongering.
The way your response is written alludes to, or concedes the point that Corbyn had socialism in its very strict definition on the table... it just happened that it took a bit of a back-seat role in favor of policies focusing on public services and that's why voters looked past it. I personally don't see it but feel free to educate me.
To me, Corbyn ran on pure classic social democratic ideas with not many concessions unlike previous recent labour leaders and that's what has made the difference. Voters didn't look past socialism, there was no socialism.
frankie_baby
Member
Corbyns manifesto was probably the most right wing of any labour government apart from blair's, a little bit of renationalisation of stuff that most people think should never have been sold in the first place and some council house building doesnt make him Lenin
True, it's just ridiculous how quickly what would be seen as a disaster under any other govt got accepted and "fuck you, got mine'd".
Imagine it happened under Blair or Brown we'd still be talking shit about it.
Huw_Dawson
Member
I'd imagine Scottish voters who fell for the "only the Tories can stop the SNP" line are quite salty right now, given that they appear to have voted in the Tories into Westminster with the DUP.
Yeah, must have been quite a shock to find Scotland of all places propping up the Torys
It'll be interesting next election with Labour no longer being the whipping dog. Hopefully most unionists switch from Tory to labour. Get as close as we can to having 1 tory mp again.
Billy_Pilgrim
Member
More that the internal Labour rhetoric was mostly concentrated on socialism being on the table again for the first time in forever, when the public conversations didn't really touch upon it too much. I absolutely agree that there was no proper old fashioned socialism there but a sizeable contingent of the Corbyn lot were singing the red flag and billy bragg songs at every opportunity (complete with Karl Marx badges, CND, the works), yet when they spoke to people the word socialism rarely emerged.
My experience may have been skewed by the fact that we got the Red Labour lot heavily involved, seeing as it was founded on our doorstep and all the proper trots put some work in for once.
One other thing to mention is that the Labour campaign was entirely get out the vote. We did not spend any time talking to anyone who we didn't have down as a previous or potential Labour voter. The consequence of this is that I spent the entire time under the impression that there was a big swing from us to the Tories (which was sort of the case in my constituency) yet I had no input on how new voters or tories/lib dems/kippers were thinking. The exit poll was the biggest relief I have felt since passing my driving test.
Source or citation to back up the three quite large assumptions you're making here?
The last point is fair enough - as long as you ignore the huge numbers of leave supporting Labour voters. The second point is just a "maybe".
The first point though is pure bait. It's been discussed to death in here fairly recently and the only reason for Huw to repeat it now is to wind people up.
Billy_Pilgrim
Member
The number isn't that huge to start with. Wasn't it around 60+% of Labour voters voting remain?
Very interesting, thanks. Yeah I can see how the symbolism was there, you could see it on the internet too. But yeah, like you touched upon in the previous post these symbols unite people more on the idea that policies should be for the many, not the few rather than socialism as an economic ideology, and as such I tend to be very cautious when saying there was "socialism" in the campaign as it just gives easy ammo to political opponents.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Ashcroft - http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/06/result-happen-post-vote-survey/
For the second point (1 and 3 are answered in the data above) it wasn't an assumption. "Maybe" you'd get Remain voters peeled off of Labour by a stronger campaign by the LDs. I think that's possible, because the LDs had a really, really bad campaign this time around so we don't know what a strong LD campaign could do to Corbyn (much like we don't know what a strong Conservative campaign would do to Corbyn). More likely, though, you'd get the same forces taking place at a GE this or next year as now - Brexit as a sideline issue for voters on the centre and left, but it still remaining a big issue for voters on the right.
JonnyDBrit
Member
Holy fucking shit. They could fund themselves and several other councils with that money.
Huw_Dawson
Member
God damn at that letter. Mismanagement of epic proportions.
So money wasn't an issue.
Air Zombie Meat
Member
Sums up all the people that have turned a blind eye to the suffering of others just because they did well under the tories. People have been telling you this shit for years but you just ignore it while you wank off about your incomes and the undeserving poors. Hope more of them wake up.
Billy_Pilgrim
Member
That letter is visceral. The councillors in charge should be looking at jail time.
CelticKnight
Member
To be honest I've don't think they've grown one yet, despite the body count. They seem to have gone to ground the last few days, hiding.
BossDarkseid
Member
Wasn't there a Councillor blaming the residents association for not wanting anything done?
JonnyDBrit
Member
Yep. Tried to deflect the lack of sprinkler system by saying, 'Well, the people of the block didn't want it'.
Billy_Pilgrim
Member
I believe that was the same Nick Paget-Brown that spent most of Thursday morning stood next to BBC cameras, and the same one mentioned in the letter.
Kotetsu534
Member
He's basically dead right. About 68% of Tory voters voted Leave, while about 64% of those who voted Labour voted Remain. See Ashcroft. So the typical Labour voter was a Remainer.
But! Scroll further down. While 48% of Tory voters named Brexit as their #1 most important issue in determining their vote, only 8% of Labour voters did. The NHS was by far the #1 reason for those voting Labour, followed by spending cuts generally. So although the typical Labour voter was a Remainer, they weren't as energised by it (if at all) as by other issues. Contrast Lib Dem voters, whose #1 issue was Brexit. This is why Lynton Crosby tried hard to get the campaign back on to Brexit in the final weeks, as it was by far the Tories' strongest issue (especially once May's perceived leadership strength had been weakened by her "dementia tax" and subsequent U-turn, robotic repetition of soundbites contra Corbyn's ability to talk like a real person, and inability to connect with the public).
My gf worked for the council and the first thing she said when this fires happened was 'that's the richest authority in the country heads will roll'. Disgusting joe stark the rich poor divide is really.
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