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UK General Election 2017 |OT2| No Government is better than a bad Government

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Going swimmingly

http://www.politico.eu/article/brit...sels-too-theresa-may-negotiations-article-50/

As Brexit talks start Monday, Britain’s back is hard against a wall. And nobody, not even in Brussels, wanted it that way.

Elections in the U.K. were supposed to give Prime Minister Theresa May a stronger hand against the EU and naysayers back home. Instead, her negotiating team will hobble into the talks with May in peril, still working to finalize a power-sharing agreement to allow her to form a minority government.

The EU’s stance on major Brexit issues has been ironclad for months, backed by the 27 nations in a disciplined display of unity. Second-guessing about May’s approach has intensified since her election setback, so much so that there have been calls for the EU to avert potential disaster by laying out clear paths for the U.K.’s exit.

The view in Brussels, however, is there is no way to help May short of making clear that Britain is welcome to change its mind — a point reiterated by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission First Vice-President Frans Timmermans, among others.

While no one realistically expects such a total reversal, there is unease over the lack of clarity on the U.K.’s goals.

“Clearly the Brits are not ready yet and it’s a pity,” a senior Commission official said.

“Everybody has sympathy for [May] now because she put herself in an impossible situation,” the official said. “How we can help her? Where she is now, nobody can help her. What she said to the backbenchers, in a way made sense, ‘I put you in this mess. I will take you out of this mess.’ But who else can do anything for her? It’s just hell.”

“And all the questions,” the official added, “Withdrawal? No withdrawal? Now? Later? It’s for them to consider. What can Brussels say?”

The EU has published and transmitted to the U.K. its position papers on the two issues Brussels insists take precedence: citizens’ rights and the financial settlement. May’s aides said she wanted to make a “big, generous” offer on citizens’ rights, but so far the U.K. has not published any similar documents laying out its positions.

Talk of a”big, generous” offer has quieted since May’s Tories lost their majority in the election. May is preoccupied with reorganizing her government and rebutting assertions that the election result was a rebuke of her handling of Brexit. She has been further distracted by the tragic Grenfell apartment tower fire.

In yet another sign of how May is struggling to find her footing, an EU diplomat said the British prime minister had sought to put a full discussion of Brexit on the agenda of the EU summit to be held Thursday and Friday in Brussels.

She was rebuffed by European Council President Donald Tusk. Instead, May will be allowed to make a statement on Brexit — with no discussion.
Click to expand...
 
Latest Survation, compared to election

LAB: 44% (+4)
CON: 41% (-1)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
SNP: 3% (nc)
UKIP: 2% (nc)
Green: 1% (-1)
PC: *% (-1)
Other: 1% (nc)

Labour pulling in voters from all other parties in very small quantities. Lib Dems really in a pickle - they only got to that 6% after rounding up, the precise figure from the tables was actually 5.7%.

We two-party now.

EDIT: Conservatives also becoming very close to being the Leavers party. Every extra cross-break, they seem to have less and less Conservative Remainers, down to about 24% of their support now. Labour is much more fragmented, with about 34% Leaver support still.
 
Crab said:
Latest Survation, compared to election

LAB: 44% (+4)
CON: 41% (-1)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
SNP: 3% (nc)
UKIP: 2% (nc)
Green: 1% (-1)
PC: *% (-1)
Other: 1% (nc)

Labour pulling in voters from all other parties in very small quantities. Lib Dems really in a pickle - they only got to that 6% after rounding up, the precise figure from the tables was actually 5.7%.

We two-party now.
Click to expand...
The Conservatives will probably move heaven and earth to avoid the disintegration of the Government and another election getting called. They must be fucking bricking it.
 
Crab said:
Latest Survation, compared to election

LAB: 44% (+4)
CON: 41% (-1)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
SNP: 3% (nc)
UKIP: 2% (nc)
Green: 1% (-1)
PC: *% (-1)
Other: 1% (nc)

Labour pulling in voters from all other parties in very small quantities. Lib Dems really in a pickle - they only got to that 6% after rounding up, the precise figure from the tables was actually 5.7%.

We two-party now.

EDIT: Conservatives also becoming very close to being the Leavers party. Every extra cross-break, they seem to have less and less Conservative Remainers, down to about 24% of their support now. Labour is much more fragmented, with about 34% Leaver support still.
Click to expand...

Change from 2 months ago is pretty crazy

CON 40%
LAB 29%
LD 11%
UKIP 11%
SNP 4%
GRE 2%
Others 3%
 
Spaghetti said:
The Conservatives will probably move heaven and earth to avoid the disintegration of the Government and another election getting called. They must be fucking bricking it.
Click to expand...

Yeah, uniform swing is:

Lab: 324
Con: 287
Lib: 9
Green: 1
SNP: 8(!!)
Plaid: 3
Norn Iron: 18

As a side note, I had to actually go and check the figures on that SNP figure. I didn't realise how insanely marginal so many of their seats had become. You only need a very small shift from SNP to SLab in Scotland and they start losing 10s of seats very quickly.

Obviously usual uniform swing warning applies - LDs and SNP would probably do better than this since they're strong local campaigners, Conservatives have incumbency bonus and would probably over perform in marginals. But it'd probably at the very least a Lab minority government.
 
kmag said:
Going swimmingly
Click to expand...

iP42wHz.gif
 
Crab said:
Yeah, uniform swing is:

Lab: 324
Con: 287
Lib: 9
Green: 1
SNP: 8(!!)
Plaid: 3
Norn Iron: 18

As a side note, I had to actually go and check the figures on that SNP figure. I didn't realise how insanely marginal so many of their seats had become. You only need a very small shift from SNP to SLab in Scotland and they start losing 10s of seats very quickly.

Obviously usual uniform swing warning applies - LDs and SNP would probably do better than this since they're strong local campaigners, Conservatives have incumbency bonus and would probably over perform in marginals. But it'd probably at the very least a Lab minority government.
Click to expand...

A Corbyn lead government needing a bit of help from greens, SNP and Plaid would be as about as good as it gets.
 
Crab said:
Latest Survation, compared to election

LAB: 44% (+4)
CON: 41% (-1)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
SNP: 3% (nc)
UKIP: 2% (nc)
Green: 1% (-1)
PC: *% (-1)
Other: 1% (nc)

Labour pulling in voters from all other parties in very small quantities. Lib Dems really in a pickle - they only got to that 6% after rounding up, the precise figure from the tables was actually 5.7%.

We two-party now.

EDIT: Conservatives also becoming very close to being the Leavers party. Every extra cross-break, they seem to have less and less Conservative Remainers, down to about 24% of their support now. Labour is much more fragmented, with about 34% Leaver support still.
Click to expand...
I plugged that in to electoral calculus and it showed labour winning barely over 300 seats not including scotland obviously. Tim farron would lose his seat while Layla would lose her seat to. Labour would gain back literally all of the heavy leave seats they lost to the conservatives like 11 days ago if the election was held today.

Edit: Including scotland the uniform swing looks right.
 
mo60 said:
I plugged that in to electoral calculus and it showed labour winning barely over 300 seats not including scotland obviously. Tim farron would lose his seat while Layla would lose her seat to. Labour would gain back literally all of the heavy leave seats they lost to the conservatives like 11 days ago if the election was held today.

Edit: Including scotland the uniform swing looks right.
Click to expand...

Yeah, Jo Swinson and Tim Farron would both lose their seats. That's probably why Jo hasn't gone for it - the Lib Dems need a period of stability.
 
Crab said:
Yeah, Jo Swinson and Tim Farron would both lose their seats. That's probably why Jo hasn't gone for it - the Lib Dems need a period of stability.
Click to expand...

Who would jo swinson lose her seat to? Moran has a higher chance of losing that oxford west constituency then swinson has of losing her constituency.
 
Crab said:
Yeah, Jo Swinson and Tim Farron would both lose their seats. That's probably why Jo hasn't gone for it - the Lib Dems need a period of stability.
Click to expand...

Lib Dem need a major cash injection and rebrand. I think they need to go all out on the youth vote and push younger people up for council and mp spots.

People seriously underestimate the youth vote and right now there isn't any party that really represents what they want. All they do is mention student fees and expect mass student turn out.
 
mo60 said:
Who would jo swinson lose her seat to? Moran has a higher chance of losing that oxford west constituency then swinson has of losing her constituency.
Click to expand...

Apparently Labour, but that's a product of UNS. The Lib Dem vote is so concentrated that to achieve a drop of 2% in their Scotland voting intention you have to take huge amount from a few constituencies since most Scottish constituencies don't even have 2% to begin with and you can't make the figures go negative. It would be highly unlikely to actually happen, but the risk is there.
 
KarneeKarnay said:
Lib Dem need a major cash injection and rebrand. I think they need to go all out on the youth vote and push younger people up for council and mp spots.

People seriously underestimate the youth vote and right now there isn't any party that really represents what they want. All they do is mention student fees and expect mass student turn out.
Click to expand...

Young people won't be turning out to vote Lib Dems any time soon again.
 
The Conservatives are in a fucking awful position.

A badly damaged leader who's arguably put a dent in the party image, a lack of talent and likeability in the most obvious replacements, and an incredibly fragile record that was built on an austerity message that is growing in unpopularity (of which a U-turn on would look incredibly dodgy and make people question if it was ever necessary with such severity).
 
KarneeKarnay said:
Lib Dem need a major cash injection and rebrand. I think they need to go all out on the youth vote and push younger people up for council and mp spots.

People seriously underestimate the youth vote and right now there isn't any party that really represents what they want. All they do is mention student fees and expect mass student turn out.
Click to expand...

Um, we *just* had an election where one party was able to mobilize the youth vote in a way no-ones managed before in a huge upset. It wasn't the lib Dems.

There's absolutely no point them focusing on youth right now. Corbyn has that sewn up.
 
Maledict said:
Um, we *just* had an election where one party was able to mobilize the youth vote in a way no-ones managed before in a huge upset. It wasn't the lib Dems.

There's absolutely no point them focusing on youth right now. Corbyn has that sewn up.
Click to expand...

They'd be best off targeting Europhile tories at this point, Mays incompetence /should/ be netting them polls gains, but instead they're flopping about headless, achieving nothing.
 
Crab said:
Latest Survation, compared to election

LAB: 44% (+4)
CON: 41% (-1)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
SNP: 3% (nc)
UKIP: 2% (nc)
Green: 1% (-1)
PC: *% (-1)
Other: 1% (nc)

Labour pulling in voters from all other parties in very small quantities. Lib Dems really in a pickle - they only got to that 6% after rounding up, the precise figure from the tables was actually 5.7%.

We two-party now.

EDIT: Conservatives also becoming very close to being the Leavers party. Every extra cross-break, they seem to have less and less Conservative Remainers, down to about 24% of their support now. Labour is much more fragmented, with about 34% Leaver support still.
Click to expand...
CON seem to have picked up from Survation's post election poll at 39 and LAB 45.
Wonder how much of the final result was postal votes saving CON's ass.
 
Maledict said:
Um, we *just* had an election where one party was able to mobilize the youth vote in a way no-ones managed before in a huge upset. It wasn't the lib Dems.

There's absolutely no point them focusing on youth right now. Corbyn has that sewn up.
Click to expand...

HA

I think the Youth vote is pretty important as demonstrated, but if there was any group I wouldn't rely on, it would be the Youth vote.

The only reason I suggest it to the Lib Dems is because they might as well go for broke.
 
Crab said:
Obviously usual uniform swing warning applies - LDs and SNP would probably do better than this since they're strong local campaigners, Conservatives have incumbency bonus and would probably over perform in marginals. But it'd probably at the very least a Lab minority government.
Click to expand...

Would agree with this.

The LDs will need to get the new leader bedded in before any poll recovery. Hopefully Cable wins as Cable/Swinson is a good combo. After that there will need to be work done to complete the internal work that was initiated after 2015 on the topics of policy, brand and identity - they'll be big challenges for the new leader.
 
Nexus Zero said:
You say this but Labour are a fucking disaster for our civil liberties, we need a strong Lib Dem party whether you like it or not.
Click to expand...

Yep. The dream is a Lib-Lab coalition so that the Lib Dems can slap Labour's collective wrists whenever they propose anything stupid and regressive regarding state surveillance, civil liberties in general and Brexit.
 
Theonik said:
CON seem to have picked up from Survation's post election poll at 39 and LAB 45.
Wonder how much of the final result was postal votes saving CON's ass.
Click to expand...

They're both MoE wobbles. In the absence of any reason to suggest otherwise, you'd go with the mean value CON 40 LAB 44.5.
 
Lab-Green-Plaid Coalition pls.

e:
Crab said:
They're both MoE wobbles. In the absence of any reason to suggest otherwise, you'd go with the mean value CON 40 LAB 44.5.
Click to expand...
Well yeah. Will be interesting to see where this actually goes in a month or so.
 
Huw_Dawson said:
There were real issues with Labour and civil liberties in the Blair years, it's not unreasonable to bring it up as a concern. Less directly relevant given the Tory party being in control? Yes, but it's still something a Liberal voter is thinking about.
Click to expand...

We aren't in the Blair years. He was a Neoliberal tosser and I'm more than glad he's gone.

Blair seems to hate the current Labour party, which makes me like them even more.
 
EmiPrime said:
But Labour voted with the Tories on the Investigatory Powers Act 2016...
Click to expand...

So why did you quote the 2000 act?

Labour abstained from the vote, they didn't vote with them,

I still don't agree with the 2016 act, but honestly, it's pretty low down compared to the godawful shite thats happened due to lib dem supported austerity.

Everyone finds the things they care about most.
 
Spuck-uk said:
So why did you quote the 2000 act?
Click to expand...

That's an example of what Labour did in government. Labour voting with the Tories for the 2016 Snooper's Charter shows they have not changed.

You're trying to delineated between Labour now and New Labour back then but Labour are still pro-state surveillance.
 
A lot of the stuff people are saying about the Tories being a disaster right now is the exact same thing people were saying about Labour last year.
 
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