I thought the euro benefited the richer countries (e.g. Germany)? Do I have that backwards or over simplified?
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UK General Election 2017 |OT2| No Government is better than a bad Government
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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Huw_Dawson
Member
You're the economist here, but I can see your argument regardless. I'm pointing out the nightmare scenario for a eurosceptic Tory.
FWIW I'd have to be convinced one way or the other by the Euro, but there's a good argument to be had about how much weight the UK would have regarding fiscal policy if we'd joined when it was set up. Would the UK have been happy lending so irresponsibly to Greece?
EDIT: Just got some LD propaganda through regarding free school meals. Sounds like May has scrapped the changes they wanted to make. Huzzah!
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Complicated. It benefits more productive countries, yes, but the UK is an incredibly stratified economy, and London's productivity noticeably drags up the rest of the country. Much of the rest of the UK has poor to mediocre productivity by European standards. As a very, very rough rule of thumb, the Euro is a benefit is you are in a region that is blue or above in this map and is a drag if you are in a region that is red or below on this map.
That's also completely ignoring the impacts of giving up monetary sovereignty, which don't affect Germany much because they have undue influence over the ECB.
Wild Brexit prediction:
Tory's negotiate a transitional deal that leaves us a little worse off but still members of the SM / CU and keeping 4 freedoms while we "figure it all out", maybe some small concessions on both sides. 2019 comes and goes and we have "left" but are bound by the transitional period, which has no end date.
Transitional period never ends, new Labour govt slowly float the idea of a second vote on staying in based on new sentiment and polling data, this time with some more context and a larger majority needed to leave (60%).
Leave hardliners go mad, but by now enough people have seen the wood for the trees and we narrowly vote remain.
I would love for the govt to just tell people straight it was a stupid idea in the first place, but there is more chance of platting piss.
Tory's negotiate a transitional deal that leaves us a little worse off but still members of the SM / CU and keeping 4 freedoms while we "figure it all out", maybe some small concessions on both sides. 2019 comes and goes and we have "left" but are bound by the transitional period, which has no end date.
Transitional period never ends, new Labour govt slowly float the idea of a second vote on staying in based on new sentiment and polling data, this time with some more context and a larger majority needed to leave (60%).
Leave hardliners go mad, but by now enough people have seen the wood for the trees and we narrowly vote remain.
I would love for the govt to just tell people straight it was a stupid idea in the first place, but there is more chance of platting piss.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
I see the transitional period becoming permanent because there's no will to cancel that deal. That's why the hardcore Leavers want immediate severing of ties.
DarthMasta
Member
That never ending transitional period you're thinking about is illegal by EU rules.
Theonik
Member
European Parliament has already legislated to only allow a transitional deal to last a maximum of 3 years. EU's idea is to use the 2 years to negotiate the exit deals and transitional deal and then give 3 years in that deal to negotiate a more permanent deal. (future relationship)
@skydavidblevins
Sky sources: DUP urging government to give "greater focus" to negotiations. "Party can't be taken for granted." 1/2
@skydavidblevins
Sky sources: "Negotiations haven't proceeeded in a way that DUP would have expected." 2/2
https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/877178074261053441
Sky sources: DUP urging government to give "greater focus" to negotiations. "Party can't be taken for granted." 1/2
@skydavidblevins
Sky sources: "Negotiations haven't proceeeded in a way that DUP would have expected." 2/2
https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/877178074261053441
JonnyDBrit
Member
To clarify, is this their negotiations on forming a confidence and supply deal, or Brexit negotiations?
Huw_Dawson
Member
Is it somewhat clear to anyone else that this DUP deal probably isn't happening on any reasonable timescale?
The DUP can drag this out as long as they like - they can keep this government dancing until they get total capitulation on their exact terms.
The DUP can drag this out as long as they like - they can keep this government dancing until they get total capitulation on their exact terms.
They lose if the gov't decides to just stick with a minority.
KimonoNoNo
Member
If the public are told that they were hoodwinked by the powers that be and a new goverment is able to blame the former government, there could be a saving of face all round.
They might feel over a few years they can screw out a better deal by vote by vote demands.
While i agree with the rest of your post this isn't as true as it used to be.
QE would have ended last year if Germany had more influence.
Theonik
Member
The Tories can only get a queen's speech as a minority if they abstain. DUP can vote it down if they please or hold them hostage on every bit of legislation. Without the DUP any Tory rebel is a timebomb.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Here's a fun wargame: The DUP fail to reach an agreement w/ May, vote down her Queen's Speech, triggering her immediate resignation. Their best bud David Davies takes over, who agrees with them on how hard they like their Breggsit boiled, and also now knows the DUP do not screw around. He capitulates on absolutely everything they want and they're able to pass a confidence motion, with the DUP hugely influential in Westminster and a non-lame PM able to rule for five years.
Bear in mind that although Corbyn would be PM in this scenario, I think the Tory/DUP opposition would be able to force a confidence vote, make him lose, then win one themselves.
This is about as Machiavellian as I'd expect of the DUP.
Do I expect it to happen: NO
Bear in mind that although Corbyn would be PM in this scenario, I think the Tory/DUP opposition would be able to force a confidence vote, make him lose, then win one themselves.
This is about as Machiavellian as I'd expect of the DUP.
Do I expect it to happen: NO
Huw_Dawson
Member
In which case the Tories tie lead weights to her feet and throw her in the Thames.
Huw_Dawson
Member
The QS is tomorrow, the vote is on Monday.
anonymous_abc
Member
Ready the popcorn.
Does she float or melt in that situation?
"Leak shows 'devastating' impact of planned NHS cuts in London" - Via The Guardian
Reading it through now. I don't know enough about how the NHS functions to come to my own conclusions, but the article paints a pretty worrying picture.
Reading it through now. I don't know enough about how the NHS functions to come to my own conclusions, but the article paints a pretty worrying picture.
Huw_Dawson
Member
You can only technically call the contents of the Thames water, so I'd expect she'd probably float.
I think you're channelling Terry Pratchett there, Huw
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I said undue, not absolute. If you look at ECB interest rate decisions compared to growth paths followed by EU nations, it is clear that Germany gets preferential treatment, which is pretty disgusting when they already benefit from the mere existence of a joint currency in the first place.
Honestly, people criticise May and praise Merkel, but Germany's tacit refusal to concede any of the grossly unfair advantages accrued to them by the EU is significantly worse for more people than anything May will be capable of doing.
JonathanEx
Member
So if they make a deal with the DUP, it may involve things which won't be in the Queen's Speech? Or the things in it are assumed to be fine?
Sure this will go well, what could possibly go wrong
Huw_Dawson
Member
No, if I was channelling Pratchett I'd have argued she'd bounce.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Yes, there could be a deal done outside the QS - the QS just has to pass, I actually don't think it matters what is in it.
we're so fucked
Minimal. The DUP despise Corbyn, and won't do anything to help him get closer to power. At best they'll abstain, which won't be enough to defeat it.
Huw_Dawson
Member
JonnyDBrit
Member
...these are the people the Tories are getting in bed with. And they're calling the Tories bad negotiators.
Repeat the Buckethead maxim: It. Will be. A shitshow.
anonymous_abc
Member
lol, can't even negotiate with the DUP...
Huw_Dawson
Member
The threshold is currently 315 without the DUP, meaning the vote is still on a knife-edge. One rebel from the Tories and the House is hung.
I'm not sure what you're getting at here.
ECB interest is already at 0% amd has been below .5 since 2013 (which is very unpopular in germany) and some german banks already have you paying a fee for just having money on your account.
Given the high price the Lib Dems would extract from the Tories, enough to pass a vote at the conference, trust me, you want this to happen.
DUP + Tories is a fucking nightmare in the making.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Anna Soubry, Nicky Morgan, Ken Clarke...
FWIW, I don't think Corbyn becomes PM unless he can demonstrate to the Queen that he has the numbers to get a vote through the HoC. He'd be able to have a go, but in the meantime the Tories could remove May and replace her with Davies, Johnson, or some other puppet.
FWIW, I don't think Corbyn becomes PM unless he can demonstrate to the Queen that he has the numbers to get a vote through the HoC. He'd be able to have a go, but in the meantime the Tories could remove May and replace her with Davies, Johnson, or some other puppet.
Barnier - "Europeans! What is your profession?!"
EU Team - "A-HOO! A-HOO! A-HOO!"
Barnier - "See, old friend. I brought more negotiators than you did."
Any Tory rebelling on this Queen's Speech is basically announcing their resignation from the Conservative Party, as they'll be vilified as traitors forever. You'd need some elderly politician with a serious grudge over a big enough issue to even think about seeing a rebellion.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
650
Speaker doesn't vote: 649
SF don't vote: 642
DUP don't vote: 632
Half of 632: 316
If the Conservatives got 315 votes precisely, and everyone else voted against, assuming DUP/SF/Speaker abstention, it would be 315-317, and they would lose. If they got 316 precisely, it would be 316-316. Then the Speaker would vote in favour, as per Speaker Denison's rule. So threshold is 316 under DUP abstention, or two Conservative rebels.
Ken Clarke might give you one. I don't see two.
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