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UK General Election 2017 |OT2| No Government is better than a bad Government

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Uzzy said:
Any Tory rebelling on this Queen's Speech is basically announcing their resignation from the Conservative Party, as they'll be vilified as traitors forever. You'd need some elderly politician with a serious grudge over a big enough issue to even think about seeing a rebellion.
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I see what you did there.
 
Uzzy said:
Any Tory rebelling on this Queen's Speech is basically announcing their resignation from the Conservative Party, as they'll be vilified as traitors forever. You'd need some elderly politician with a serious grudge over a big enough issue to even think about seeing a rebellion.
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This is a top quality post
 
If I was in the DUP I would think the risk of Corbyn scraping a majority together would still be pretty small.

I would try and screw the Tories over, have them begging for a deal.
 
PJV3 said:
If I was in the DUP I would think the risk of Corbyn scraping a majority together would still be pretty small.

I would try and screw the Tories over, have them begging for a deal.
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It's not even small, it's impossible. The numbers aren't there. The only way Corbyn gets in is via another GE.
 
Xando said:
I'm not sure what you're getting at here.

ECB interest is already at 0% amd has been below .5 since 2013 (which is very unpopular in germany) and some german banks already have you paying a fee for just having money on your account.
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You say 'already at 0%' like this is beyond what the situation required or was even adequate. Europe suffered greatly from not pursuing an aggressive QE measure in the same way other developed nations did; this was one of the reasons European recovery so badly lagged other developed nations in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 recession. The reason this did not happen was because of German objections.

When you compare the ECB interest rate since the ECB began to the inflation and growth paths of Eurozone members, it correlates much more highly with the German situation than it should do even accounting for Germany's relative weight to the Euro.

Germany is a millstone around the growth of most of the rest of Europe.
 
theaface said:
It's not even small, it's impossible. The numbers aren't there. The only way Corbyn gets in is via another GE.
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I meant if it came to another election, he's still going to struggle. The tories seem to be taking the fear of Corbyn for granted again, it would be cool to see it fail twice in a month.
 
Huw_Dawson said:
You can only technically call the contents of the Thames water, so I'd expect she'd probably float.
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Just to nitpick, but the Thames is one of the cleanest rivers in Europe now. It even occasionally gets salmon, and seals up in canary wharf. Astonishing considering what it was like just 50 years ago!
 
Huw_Dawson said:
Deputy speakers?
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In that case yes - I don't think there's much point including them, since one is Conservative, one is Labour, and one is vacant, so it doesn't change the amount of Conservative rebellions required in the event of DUP rebellion (2).
 
Crab said:
In that case yes - I don't think there's much point including them, since one is Conservative, one is Labour, and one is vacant, so it doesn't change the amount of Conservative rebellions required in the event of DUP rebellion (2).
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There is always the scenario of a DUP rebel in there as well though.
 
Well it's looking good so far, right... Guys?... Right?

PleaseHaveAnotherElectionPleaseHaveAnotherElectionPleaseHaveAnotherElectionPleaseHaveAnotherElectionPleaseHaveAnotherElection
 
TBH the way the maths works out is that the Tories have 316 (317 seats, minus one deputy speaker) votes, the opposition has 313 (314 seats minus one deputy speaker) and Sylvia Hermon could vote either way. It does just come down to what the DUP choose to do.

Had my party won a few more votes in RP and Olney was sitting rather than Goldsmith, this vote actually would be down to the wire, I think?
 
Best case for the Tories right now is being stuck in the worst years of Major's government where they have to airlift MPs in on medical stretchers to pass votes. It's not a good state to be in.
 
Huw_Dawson said:
TBH the way the maths works out is that the Tories have 316 (317 seats, minus one deputy speaker) votes, the opposition has 313 (314 seats minus one deputy speaker) and Sylvia Hermon could vote either way. It does just come down to what the DUP choose to do.

Had my party won a few more votes in RP and Olney was sitting rather than Goldsmith, this vote actually would be down to the wire, I think?
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Or if a few of your lot hadn’t wasted their vote in some seats that went marginally Tory. There’s 8 Tory seats where if less than 25% of LD and Green voters had gone for Labour, Labour would have won. That includes Amber Rudd’s seat.
 
Wrestlemania said:
Or if a few of your lot hadn't wasted their vote in some seats that went marginally Tory. There's 8 seats where if less than 25% of LD and Green voters had gone for Labour, Labour would have won.
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I'm thinking the very, very slight margins - Richmond Park and smaller.

(Quickly running the maths) - had 46 more Labour voters in Richmond Park and 31 Lib Dem voters in Newcastle-Under-Lyme been squeezed to flip, then the Tories would be in major crap right now.

Whoever said voting doesn't matter!
 
Theonik said:
Which makes a second election very interesting indeed. Much more marginal Tory seats this time around. They are potentially looking to bleed about 50 seats.
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Yup, you could see a major swing if the election was re-run in the autumn, or you might see the negative occur if the Tory campaign was better.
 
Huw_Dawson said:
I'm thinking the very, very slight margins - Richmond Park and smaller.

Had the votes gone slightly differently in Dudley North and Newcastle-Under-Lyme (presumably by a tiny number of LD voters swapping to Corbyn) then the Tories would have lost two votes (down to 314) and the Opposition would have gained two (up to 315?). At that point the DUP would have had to voted for the QS.

That could have alternatively been done in Richmond Park and, a bit further out, St Ives, to give the same effect.

It's just one of those things. A very slightly better LD campaign or a very slightly better Labour squeeze of LD votes and this entire situation would be radically different.
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Yeah. There's 14 seats where there was less than 1,000 votes between Con and Lab which would have all swung to Lab with enough of the LD/Green vote.
Looks like 8 seats where enough of the Lab vote would have swung a Con seat to LD.
 
In other news, Swinson is the new LD Deputy Leader. It means that if there was an August GE she'd be Acting Leader. I know you're all dead excited about this.

FWIW the one advantage of working with Labour is more seats and Paddy Ashdown's 1997 dream of a coalition. But I don't think a Labour-LD coalition is viable. I'd ultimately only want PR out of it and that is something I'd wager Labour would never willingly give up.
 
Wrestlemania said:
Yeah. There's 14 seats where there was less than 1,000 votes between Con and Lab which would have all swung to Lab with enough of the LD/Green vote.
Looks like 8 seats where enough of the Lab vote would have swung a Con seat to LD.
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FPTP sucks. Even AV would be better than this travesty.
 
Beefy said:
Yeah that latest Hammond speech sounds more and more like soft brexit.
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This is a pretty bonkers position to put ourselves in, a Chancellor who was getting the boot is now challenging the prime minister fairly bluntly over a key policy.


Soft brexit with the hard bit kicked into the long grass is my preferred option, so I hope he wins the argument.
 
Huw_Dawson said:
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...austerity-uk-single-market-theresa-may-brexit

Open letter by Labour peeps calling for single market membership. Probably as far as they go, but there's quite a few MPs on the signature list - including (because of course) Chukka Umunna, who absolutely was not planning to launch a leadership bid on the 9th.
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Problem is that current EU single market regulation means banning social-democracy. The rules are exactly so that classic SD policies like publicly owned energy companies are extremely difficult to impossible to achieve. It's almost seems specifically altered in idea to do exactly that.
...And with the liberals and Christen democracts having so much power in the EU and the 'labor' parties cooperating, chances are high that it is intentional.

If UK can get a better deal under Labour then that would be great because it would mean that there is a small chance that EU members can also negotiate such changes for them.
 
Condom said:
Problem is that current EU single market regulation means banning social-democracy. The rules are exactly so that classic SD policies like publicly owned energy companies are extremely difficult to impossible to achieve. It's almost seems specifically altered in idea to do exactly that.
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How do Sweden manage it?
 
Theonik said:
Or France. Or Germany. Well that's in terms of utilities.
But SD is very difficult to do without control of one's currency especially with the heavy control some continental players have over monetary policy. Now that's why the British left blocked the Euro in the 90s.
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I mean really all of the most socially democratic countries in the world are EU or EEA members. That isn't to say that there isn't conflict there, but it's patently false to say that EU market regulations ban social democracy.
 
Frankfurter said:
? No, it isn't. Most countries have an independent central bank anyway. It's not like Germany pre-Euro for instance could just print money.
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Bolded part is not true. The UK didn't have one until Tony Blair even. And of course you can't just print money, but you can adapt your monetary policy to fit your fiscal policy which isn't feasible in the single currency which is why the Maastricht treaty imposes limits on fiscal policy but for the vast majority of EU nations there was no way to meet them including in France. Even in countries that have independent Central Banks they still will adapt Monetary policy to Fiscal policy they just don't print money politically.

E: Though do note that the BoE is literally the oldest Central Bank.

The Friendly Monster said:
I mean really all of the most socially democratic countries in the world are EU or EEA members. That isn't to say that there isn't conflict there, but it's patently false to say that EU market regulations ban social democracy.
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Properly adhering to Maastricht makes it very hard for most EU Social Democracies.
 
DarthMasta said:
That never ending transitional period you're thinking about is illegal by EU rules.
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It's actually also illegal by WTO rules.

Article XXIV(5) of the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT), which covers trade in goods, establishes that,

The provisions of this Agreement shall not prevent, as between the territories of contracting parties, the formation of a customs union or of a free-trade area or the adoption of an interim agreement necessary for the formation of a customs union or of a free-trade area […] Any interim agreement […] shall include a plan and schedule for the formation of such a customs union or of such a free-trade area within a reasonable length of time
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The Tory's can't justifiably sit there and torpedo the financial sector to appease a bunch of mouth breathers. The nutter fringe thought they might at one stage but the election saw to that.

The whole thing is pure madness.

This conversation is a constant reminder of how many brain cells you lose when talking to leave voters: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rnyMXIbh-U
 
Uzzy said:
Any Tory rebelling on this Queen's Speech is basically announcing their resignation from the Conservative Party, as they'll be vilified as traitors forever. You'd need some elderly politician with a serious grudge over a big enough issue to even think about seeing a rebellion.
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Alternatively, there are more than 4 completely insane headbangers who would cut their cocks off if it guaranteed the hardest possible brexit.

I mean really all of the most socially democratic countries in the world are EU or EEA members. That isn't to say that there isn't conflict there, but it's patently false to say that EU market regulations ban social democracy.
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Many of them are not particularly ideological and are more than willing to find modern methods to reduce inequality. Unfortunately we're still lumbered with quite a few seize the means dinosaurs. I heard one of them railing against grammar schools in one sentence then following up with bring back closed shops in the next at a meeting less than a year ago.
 
The Friendly Monster said:
I mean really all of the most socially democratic countries in the world are EU or EEA members. That isn't to say that there isn't conflict there, but it's patently false to say that EU market regulations ban social democracy.
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It is. I'm talking about regulation on public ownership of companies and state support. The monetary thing is a whole other fiasco.

My local energy and internet company had to be split up and sold off for example because of single market regulation. Now it's bought up by a Swedish company.

Your argument is based on history, not current times and current laws. SD leftovers are still there but being dismantled. Sometimes very slowly, other times quickly. Public transport is a good example.
 
Billy_Pilgrim said:
They're all thick as fuck. Not a single exception. Voted to leave, thick. The one absolutism I'll ever allow myself.
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Thick? Is this British slang? Americans call a woman thick if they fancy her, I believe.

Also, the next video was about a man who feels ashamed to have been "suck in" into all the lies. That's a horrific example of how some... very dark chapters in history... have been written.
 
oti said:
Thick? Is this British slang? Americans call a woman thick if they fancy her, I believe.

Also, the next video was about a man who feels ashamed to have been "suck in" into all the lies. That's a horrific example of how some... very dark chapters in history... have been written.
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Thick as in dense, and/or it's hard for reason to get through their thick skull.
 
oti said:
Thick? Is this British slang? Americans call a woman thick if they fancy her, I believe.

Also, the next video was about a man who feels ashamed to have been "suck in" into all the lies. That's a horrific example of how some... very dark chapters in history... have been written.
Click to expand...

Thick in America means fat. It's like eskimos have those 20 different words for snow.
 
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