Weekend Box Office Estimates (King Bomb?)

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Okay, I looked out my window today and the NBC Universal building is now on fire, with people jumping off the roof.

:lol
 
Willco said:
Okay, I looked out my window today and the NBC Universal building is now on fire, with people jumping off the roof.

:lol
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Okay, I can usually see through your sarcasm, but this time I can't tell if you are serious or not. Are you seriously calling nearly $150m WW in five days a bomb?
 
GhaleonEB said:
Okay, I can usually see through your sarcasm, but this time I can't tell if you are serious or not. Are you seriously calling nearly $150m WW in five days a bomb?
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King Kong will never be a bomb, but it's a huge disappointment. When you automatically start adding international figures in an effort to make it look like it's not doing that poorly, well... it's already lost.
 
My god, some people really want this movie to fail. Keep up the fight! Don't let little things like reality get in the way... :lol:
 
DMczaf said:
TITANIC

Domestic: $600,788,188 32.6%
+ Overseas: $1,244,246,000 67.4%
= Worldwide: $1,845,034,188

What a bomb :(
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That was almost a good point.

What do Titanic and LOTR have in common, that King Kong lacks?

The one thing that explains their higher worldwide total?


They're good movies.





ZING!
 
Willco said:
King Kong will never be a bomb, but it's a huge disappointment. When you automatically start adding international figures in an effort to make it look like it's not doing that poorly, well... it's already lost.
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Seriously. Many expected anywhere from 70-90 million for this in the US's opening weekend. Christmas weekend will help, but look at what Shrek did with a holiday weekend following it's opening. Exact same format. Opens Wednesday, big weekend, and slightly decreased 2nd weekend. 108 million opening, 129 through 5 days, and a 92.2 million 2nd weekend. Insane. They didn't expect these numbers but again, 70-90 million should have been expected for the 3-day/5-day at least. This is severly dissapointing.
 
Titanic = love story between Leonardo DiCaprio & Kate Winslet

King Kong = love story between a big CGI gorilla & Naomi Watts

King Kong loses

titanic%20fans!.JPG
 
jamesinclair said:
That was almost a good point.

What do Titanic and LOTR have in common, that King Kong lacks?

The one thing that explains their higher worldwide total?


They're good movies.





ZING!
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....and.. your... point.... is................hhuWaTT?




ZANG!
 
King Kong is too silly to appeal to everyone. While Spielberg not showing the shark until a hour in was pacing, Jackson not showing Kong was just putting a lot of Depression crap filler in the beginning. Once he showed Kong, the story was so ridiculous, no one could take it seriously. The Kong/T-Rexes fight was like a videogame. This movie will probably break even at best.
 
Adding International isn't SPINNING...good grief, it's not like people are adding them together and claiming they're domestic.

The fact is that a 5-Day Total of $146 Million worldwide? It's good box-office. It isn't as big of a hit as I thought it was going to be, but it came back from a $9.6 Million opening Wednesday and made 5 times that over the weekend. That is IMPRESSIVE.

The problem was purely expectations; when you think about it, it is only $9 Million off of Universal's belief that it would track similar to Fellowship of the Ring. This is disappointing for Universal, sure, but it is not tragic by any means and it is not a bomb. With the holiday season ahead, King Kong is still likely to perform extremely well both domestically and overseas, resulting in a strong box office return and more cash for Peter Jackson.

The real people at fault? The people at Universal who decided to let Peter Jackson go against his contract and produce a 3-Hour Cut of the film. While I personally did not mind the length as a whole, it led to less screenings, and clearly hurt its box office total.
 
It's a bomb. It will be viewed as such by the studio. There's no debate here, it's a damn bomb. Even if it has legs, you expect it to make 600 mil? That's how much it would cost to make a profit off this. Truth is a 200 mil production has to make more than 400 mil to make a decent profit, seeing the dividends. It's a bomb.
 
Wafflecopter said:
It's a bomb. It will be viewed as such by the studio. There's no debate here, it's a damn bomb. Even if it has legs, you expect it to make 600 mil? That's how much it would cost to make a profit off this. Truth is a 200 mil production has to make more than 400 mil to make a decent profit, seeing the dividends. It's a bomb.
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And it will make more than 400 million dollars with the DVD sales... won't it?

Oh yeah, how much do you think that Kong will end up earning domestically pre-dvd sales?
 
Okay, everyone calling it a bomb. Set your projections here, both domestic and international, for the record. Gonna call it a bomb? Quantify that. How much will it make, and still be a bomb? This will be referenced down the road. :)

US: $220m
International: $400m
Total WW Box Office: $620m
 
GhaleonEB said:
Okay, everyone calling it a bomb. Set your projections here, both domestic and international, for the record. Gonna call it a bomb? Quantify that. How much will it make, and still be a bomb? This will be referenced down the road. :)

US: $220m
International: $400m
Total WW Box Office: $620m
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Doesn't matter. It will be viewed in the industry as a bomb. Universal will view it as such. Troy bombed, and that made over 400 worldwide and a good profit on DVD. Domestic counts more than you think. Notice how Box office reports only count domestic? You have to look elsewhere for world wide, like mojo.com. Anyways I see it making maybe 500
 
Wafflecopter said:
You're really gunning to fight the bomb comments. You work on the movie?
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Naw, I just like to track these and find it downright short-sighted and foolish with all the bomb talk. It just irritates me that people here are in such a rush to call things.

You could reverse it, of course. Why is everyone in such a hurry to call it a bomb with so much evidence to the contrary?
 
It's a damn bomb. Fucking A people. It is. Face it. It didn't reach expectations. 50 mil Domestic? 50 mil in five days when Narnia made more in three. Can't use the school excuse for the lackluster box office.
 
who gives a shit. People arguing over the whether or not a movie is a "bomb" which isn't even a real fucking term and could have a million definitions, especially when a movie hasn't even wrapped up its first weekend. Jesus mcChrist.
 
Ninja Scooter said:
who gives a shit. People arguing over the whether or not a movie is a "bomb" which isn't even a real fucking term and could have a million definitions, especially when a movie hasn't even wrapped up its first weekend. Jesus mcChrist.
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Yeah, we all know it takes at least 2 weeks to know if something "bombed" (Magic Johnson Talk Show)
 
DMczaf said:
Yeah, we all know it takes at least 2 weeks to know if something "bombed" (Magic Johnson Talk Show)
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Magic was a genius. That show was bad on purpose, it was meant to be a comedy. He was just too far ahead of his time.
 
Ninja Scooter said:
Magic was a genius. That show was bad on purpose, it was meant to be a comedy. He was just too far ahead of his time.
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Yeah, it looks like Carson Daly took over where Magic left off and he's now reaping all of the benefits.
 
LM4sure said:
Titantic was an exception to the rule. There is usually a pattern, and I'm sure Kong will follow that pattern. No one cares about Kong. Hell, I don't care, and I see a movie almost every week.
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I've seen 3 movies in the theatres since 1999 and I want to see this one, even though I've never given a fuck for Kong.
 
Ninja Scooter said:
who gives a shit. People arguing over the whether or not a movie is a "bomb" which isn't even a real fucking term and could have a million definitions, especially when a movie hasn't even wrapped up its first weekend. Jesus mcChrist.
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I'll second what you said but I'll take it to the "next" level: Jesus FUCKING McChrist! :D
 
Dammit! I forgot to sell my King Bomb stock. It has gone down ~$60 on HSX. I'm down $425,000 today. Fuckin bomb of a movie! Peter Jackson sucks. I was doing so well. I should've sold it earlier! ARGH!!!!!!!
 
LM4sure said:
Dammit! I forgot to sell my King Bomb stock. It has gone down ~$60 on HSX. I'm down $425,000 today. Fuckin bomb of a movie! Peter Jackson sucks. I was doing so well. I should've sold it earlier! ARGH!!!!!!!
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^What?
 
Wafflecopter said:
It's a damn bomb. Fucking A people. It is. Face it. It didn't reach expectations. 50 mil Domestic? 50 mil in five days when Narnia made more in three. Can't use the school excuse for the lackluster box office.
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Two things.

It did $66m in five days, not $50m.

Opening weekend <> total gross

R-User! said:
^What?
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He's trading derivitives on box office performance.
 
GhaleonEB said:
Two things.

It did $66m in five days, not $50m.

Opening weekend <> total gross



He's trading derivitives on box office performance.
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That's right, that's right........ my bad... I forgot what the acronym for HSX was, and I just glossed over its relevance to the context of LM4sure's post.

LM4sure: Don't worry. Have faith in your investment. If your lucky, you'll still make some money. [/endsarcasm]
 
R-User! said:
That's right, that's right........ my bad... I forgot what the acronym for HSX was, and I just glossed over its relevance to the context of LM4sure's post.

LM4sure: Don't worry. Have faith in your investment. If your lucky, you'll still make some money. [/endsarcasm]
Click to expand...


No I sold it now before it goes down anymore. It's a bomb. Luckily I bought the stock when it was in the mid $30's.
 
Here's something for all of you comparing it to Fellowship of the Ring, which cost nothing compared to Kong, nor was counted on to get Hollywood out of a slump...

Interesting... said:
Peter Jackson's remake of "King Kong" did out-gross the opening weekend of his "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring," the first of his J.R.R. Tolkien fantasy trilogy that debuted with $47.2 million. But factoring in a 12 percent rise in admission prices since that 2001 film's release, "King Kong" sold about 7.9 million tickets, 450,000 fewer than "Fellowship of the Ring."

And "King Kong" did not measure up to the first five days of "Fellowship of the Ring," which debuted on a Wednesday and had grossed $75.1 million domestically by Sunday. Also opening Wednesday, "King Kong" got to $66.2 million in its first five days.
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Rough week for Universal. Also, does anyone know how Universal is distributing King Kong overseas if Paramount and Universal recently dissolved UIP, their international distribution company?
 
Willco said:
Here's something for all of you comparing it to Fellowship of the Ring, which cost nothing compared to Kong, nor was counted on to get Hollywood out of a slump...



Rough week for Universal. Also, does anyone know how Universal is distributing King Kong overseas if Paramount and Universal recently dissolved UIP, their international distribution company?
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In summary:

Inflation exists.

Ticket prices have gone up.

Kong, despite having one half the opening day of FotR, had a better 3-day weekend (MOMENTUM)

Any movie that is not King Kong and came out on the same day is "not comparable" for some reason (usually because it disproves Wilco's point).

Wilco does not like to admit he may be wrong.

Did I miss anything?
 
GhaleonEB said:
Any movie that is not King Kong and came out on the same day is "not comparable" for some reason (usually because it disproves Wilco's point).
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No, because you can't pick an actual movie that makes sense from a fiscal point of view. FOTR was nothing compared to Kong in hype, costs or expectations, Shrek is not PG 13 and don't know what else you've concocted. The truth is the movie that Kong is tracking closest to is actually Godzilla.

Wilco does not like to admit he may be wrong.
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Wrong about what? I'm not the one who keeps lowering these "standards" Kong is hitting every day. It went from "Titanic numbers!" to "Oh school is not out, we'll get at least $75 million to $80 million!" to "Well it's comparable to FOTR!"

Did I miss anything?
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The part where KONG BOMBED LOL AM I RITE?
 
Willco said:
No, because you can't pick an actual movie that makes sense from a fiscal point of view. FOTR was nothing compared to Kong in hype, costs or expectations, Shrek is not PG 13 and don't know what else you've concocted. The truth is the movie that Kong is tracking closest to is actually Godzilla.



Wrong about what? I'm not the one who keeps lowering these "standards" Kong is hitting every day. It went from "Titanic numbers!" to "Oh school is not out, we'll get at least $75 million to $80 million!" to "Well it's comparable to FOTR!"



The part where KONG "BOMBED" LOL AM I RITE?
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Fixed for you. :)
 
$66.2M in five days is not a bomb. Period. Movie will have strong legs, hit over 240M domestically.
 
Wafflecopter said:
It bombed. Fanboys will spin this as much as they like, adding international and all that jazz. It bombed. Who cares though?
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I haven't even seen the movie, so you can stuff that "Fanboy" business right up your ass, but a film that makes back 2/3 of its budget on opening weekend is not a bomb.

It's amazing. You heard it hear first, folks. Overseas dollars don't count. Their bills are like funny-colored monopoly money.
 
Because I am a optimist at heart, I will predict that King Kong will make between 250-370 million. I know, I know. That's a "pretty big margin", but I don't care. I think that KK will make at least 250, and at most 375.

-Disclaimer- I reserve the right to say that I thought that King Kong would magically become (if indeed it does become) the first movie to earn 500 million+ since Titanic all along. :p :D
(Not likely, but if it were to happen, I would not be entirely surprised; being that a formula similar to that of what it would take for KK to make that kind of money has happened before during the same period of the year. i.e. TITANIC... read below...)

p.s. what do you all think that KK will make during the Valentine's day weekend?


http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=titanic.htm

Weekend Breakdown Overseas Breakdown Similar Movies

1997
Date(Click to view chart) Rank WeekendGross % Change Theater Count/Change Average Gross-to-Date Week #
Dec 19–21 1 $28,638,131 - 2,674 - $10,709 $28,638,131 1
Dec 26–28 1 $35,455,673 +23.8% 2,711 +37 $13,078 $88,425,009 2

1998
Date(Click to view chart) Rank WeekendGross % Change Theater Count/Change Average Gross-to-Date Week #
Jan 2–4 1 $33,315,278 -6.0% 2,727 +16 $12,216 $157,467,971 3
Jan 9–11 1 $28,716,310 -13.8% 2,746 +19 $10,457 $197,881,813 4
Jan 16–18 1 $30,010,633 +4.5% 2,767 +21 $10,845 $236,745,003 5
Jan 16–19 1 $36,014,544 +25.4% 2,767 +21 $13,015 $242,748,914 5
Jan 23–25 1 $25,238,720 -15.9% 2,771 +4 $9,108 $274,599,886 6
Jan 30–Feb 1 1 $25,907,172 +2.6% 2,853 +82 $9,080 $308,100,203 7
Feb 6–8 1 $23,027,838 -11.1% 2,956 +103 $7,790 $337,355,666 8
Feb 13–15 1 $28,167,947 +22.3% 3,002 +46 $9,383 $371,562,244 9

-----Can anyone see Kong making that kind of money on it's 9th/10th weekend?
Just wondering... :|
 
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