Is that really true though? The desire to avoid another Korean War was less about civilua casualties but rather a fear it would involve rival superpowers getting into a war with one another. The US, China and SK also fear the collapse of the NK state in any conflict that would likely trigger the greatest humanitarian disaster since WWII, with literally millions flooding acrosd the Yalu to China. South Korea has also stated it's in no mood to destroy its massive economy trying to reunify the peninsula under its rule.
North Korea launches missile that passes over Japan
- Thread starter 8-Bit Sunset
- Start date
Is that really true though? The desire to avoid another Korean War was less about civilua casualties but rather a fear it would involve rival superpowers getting into a war with one another. The US, China and SK also fear the collapse of the NK state in any conflict that would likely trigger the greatest humanitarian disaster since WWII, with literally millions flooding acrosd the Yalu to China. South Korea has also stated it's in no mood to destroy its massive economy trying to reunify the peninsula under its rule.
But the Nazis did have a sense of self-preservation. You'd have a bit of a point if you're talking about Imperial Japan, but North Korea resembles Imperial Japan even less than it does Nazi Germany.
What? North Korean intentions aren't unclear at all. Everyone knows that they're aiming for deterrence.
They aren't suggesting first strike. It doesn't make any sense whatsoever.
Ah, the KN17/Hwasong-12 was right.
It's the missile they said they would use to surround guam earlier. So they went from firing 4 to firing 1 and sending it nowhere near Guam.
Maiden Voyage
Gold™ Member
None of NK's options make sense for them. They lose in every single scenario. It's just a matter how how much collateral damage they do along the way.
Deterence theory holds, even for despotic, maniacal regimes as the Soviet Union and Red China proves.
The Nazis were many things, but suicidal wasn't one of them. All of their expansionist ambitions were intended to obtain more land for future generations of Germans.
The worry that Kim might use nuclear weapons if his regime is about to fall is precisely why we don't initiate an attack and does, in fact, suggest that he would only become dangerous when there is no more self to preserve.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
As far as I'm aware, The South China Sea dosn't touch, SK. Philiphines, Camboia, Malaysia,... but not SK. They can mantain pressence in those areas.
Is very doubtfoul that China would invade SK or claim NK for they. To me SK military bases are just a consequence of a very old war and a totally different geopolitycal era.
Until something ends dire, EU won't care or continue sanctions.
It's nothing unless Trump monumentally overreacts. Even he hasn't done so so far, so I'm pretty optimistic!
It's an analogy. Missiles aren't fired every day.
Ie no missile has ever been fired above Japan like that. So it might as well be a bullet, and might as well be inches.
As a signal it's insanely hostile and dangerous.
It's a simple question, are you OK with 10million dead? The humanitarian crises would be a secondary effect over a longer period of time. The first issue are the massive casualties that can not be prevented.
This is Kim doing some barking to look tough while covering for him not following through on the Guam thing
NYCmetsfan
Banned
IF ATTACKED
not one of your articles has mentioned the realistic belief the NK's will launch a first strike
partime
Member
China needs to step up and control some of this nonsense behavior. Trump is not the sort of person who can handle behavior like this with diplomatic subtlety. Dude's gonna start beating the war drums tomorrow and have half the country would be behind him, as evidenced by people in this thread.
Earthbound64
Banned
Which somewhat proves that NK is a rational actor to an extent. They could have launched this missile towards Guam like they threatened but obviously realised it would have led to a very real confrontation with the US. Hence their decision to launch it in a north-east direction. NK gets to demonstrate their resolve while also not being retaliated against.
Massive Duck. C.M.
Banned
Think it didn't go out in Kansai
Europe views it primarily as a japan, south korea, American issue and chooses not to interfer. Although the UK is going to start sticking it's oar in soon when we send one of our new carriers to the region. Annoyed North korea with that announcement.
Europe will state the obvious like it's annoyed with the launch and views it badly but it's not our neck of the woods really. America also doesn't want Europe interfering in its foreign affairs in the region.
hamauzu kaito
Member
Why would china do anything. This is a chance for xi and the politburo to gouge both America and Japan's reactions.
Lord Error
Insane For Sony
Japan's 'height' is approx 1100 miles, so 300 miles miss in a comparable relative distance of a human height would be if someone misses you by about 17-18 inches.
"They" are a very small number of people. They aren't threatened by famine nearly as much as they are by regime change. Doing what they're doing makes sense.
No, we absolutely should not.
I'm in Tokyo though
I mean, what would qualify as monumental, in this situation? What would a justified reaction to this be? I'm asking anyone in sincerity, I'm trying to imagine what a reaction from the US to this situation would look like.
These people realize China has said if the US attacks first, China will consider doing something to the US?
With Trump promising a 301 trade investigation on China, Xi has even less reason to take action on NK.
superdeluxe
Member
Ehh this is first missile launch over mainland Japan in 8 years. Also first since discovery of nuclear capability. This isn't your average missile test into the water
Maiden Voyage
Gold™ Member
Not one of my articles? I posted one article...
-Time.
You're telling me no one in the world takes that statement seriously?
And so does striking at their most hated enemy when they are on their way to obsolescence. They aren't going to disappear without a bang.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
When USA oblitearted Iraq, they created ISIS and thousands and thousands of civilians died because of that, and that's without taking into consideraration the damage ISIS did in Siria and other countries.
I wonder what kind of disaster could be born from this....
Launching a missile that passes over North Korea is the justified reaction. No reaction would be too weak, starting a war would be too crazy
They have been saying shit like that for decades. It's nothing other than one of their many saber rattling statements they do to project strength that does not exist. S. Korea has dealt with this BS for so long it no longer rattles the country.
Massive Duck. C.M.
Banned
Ah, not sure then
That quote doesn't indicate a first strike. They are talking about retaliation and the entire reason you make such a statement is so that there is nothing to retaliate against.
superdeluxe
Member
Honestly the best outcome for the people of NK would be a unified Korea led by the South. Don't think thatChina wants tho.
What a stupidly narrow minded response. Yes, just like they obliterated Iraq and aided in obliterating Libya and Yemen. Great idea!
Not sure where you're plucking 10 million dead from. Not even the First Korean War had thst many dead. Due to the decrepid nature of the North's military it's ability to inflict mass casualtied on the South would be limited. Recent studies have shown any war would see tens of thousands of dead in the Seoul Metropolitan area over the course of a week after hostilities began before the KPA and its large artillery force is wiped out along the DMZ. Terrible for sure but nowhere near 10 million.
The real worry is the potential for a total collapse of the NK state and descent into anarchy leading to large scale refugee flows into China and SK.
How is this relevant in any way?
bitbydeath
Gold Member
Which is what I'm thinking NK is trying to egg US into.
For an obliterated country, Iraq sure has been a nuisance these last 14 years.
SDCowboy
Member
I highly doubt SK wants that either. Having to absorb NK would be devastating.