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[KHarvey16]

Y'all are talking past each other.

One says, what happens when they do it?

You keep saying they won't. And round you go.

That poster posited a test fire near Hawaii and we're discussing the response.

 

[Razgriz-Specter]

Seeing the siren videos from Japan really made me wonder what would happen with the US in an actual attack.
Here in Alabama for example we recently had counties shutting off their siren systems in favor of weather radio and smartphones messages.

 

[Stone Ocean]

And Iraq was a Chinese ally?

No, but what guarantee did NK have back then that a bloodthirsty post 9/11 US wouldn't come for them next? China wasn't a big a player as they are now back then.

If SK wasn't an issue the country would have been invaded decades ago.

 

[MIMIC]

I think you're in the minority here. I'm willing to bet the majority would bet the US would take some action militarily if rockets start landing near or over US territories. This isn't a new reality we can just accept. Saying, "Oh well, we need to give NK the benefit of the doubt, they would never actually land a missile in our country" isn't an option.

Wouldn't the United States intercept a missile that was projected to land near the U.S.?

 

[Occam]

No, but I hardly doubt China from nigh 2 decades ago would make the US think twice about invading if SK wasn't in the picture.

Hilarious.

 

[Razgriz-Specter]

No, but what guarantee did NK have back then that a bloodthirsty post 9/11 US wouldn't come for them next? China wasn't a big a player as they are now back then.

If SK wasn't an issue the country would have been invaded decades ago.

Ummm...
China is a part of why the US left Korea and Vietnam the way it did.

 

[George Washington]

Still parroting this nonsense I see.

The North Korean regime know exactly what they're doing. If the North Korean regime was irrational, they wouldn't be here. They would of taken actual irrational steps that would of destroyed them a long time ago. Keep in mind that North Korea is one of the poorest countries in the world. They have virtually no friends nor partners, they have the mightiest powers the world has ever seen, fail to contain them. They even have the harshest sanctions that any country could possibly have against them. Yet, here they are, posing a major threat while standing firm. They now have achieved nuclear capabilities, which further strengthens their resolve whilst sustaining their position as a threat to the region and to the world at large.

An irrational actor wouldn't be in that position. Only stonecold rationality can calculate a measured response that yields maximum damage with the lowest amount of backlash. They have Seoul and Tokyo in their reach, and if push ever comes to shove, you can bet that they will die standing - taking millions of people with them and causing catastrophe .

Make no mistake about it. They know that they have the upper hand. There are no middle roads to take here, and North Korea is perfectly aware of that.

Your logic baffles me.

You can be irrational and still exist. This doesn't mean he knows exactly, especially given that he is a 33-35 year old lacking the experience of his father, how to continue. Also, you are dealing with Donald Trump, the most irrational president in history. This should warrant even more caution.

They are one of the poorest coutnries in the world yet they are getting their supplies to sustain the dictatorship from China, China being their only ally

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-north-korea-relationship

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-20/north-korea-receives-constant-oil-supply-from-china-on-border/8821500.

https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/singapore/analysis-us-sanctions-against-n-korea-unlikely-27867050

Also, what is their endgame? A rational one would have one in mind. It seems like he's been in a loop for the past few years:

 

[NYCmetsfan]

��

Anyway, people are free to disagree with my assessment of the regime.

I still find North Korea acting irrational,ensuring their demise, especially given that Trump is president, and straining the relationship with China. They do not have the same level of bargaining power that the USSR had during the Cold War.

Edit:

Irrational in the sense that in order to ensure their survival, they are doing everything possible that is guaranteeing their destruction.

Its wrong.

You can't say they're ensuring their demise, that's ludicrous. There's no basis for saying that unless you think a US invasion with a guarantee of nuclear war is inevitable.

Also, what is their endgame? A rational one would have one in mind. It seems like he's been in a loop for the past few years:

Maybe read some IR lit? There's debate but here are few.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/29/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-missile.html?mcubz=0&_r=0

You keep posting random articles that posit things about NK but their strategic rational.

 

[stupei]

My point is that there wasn't any reason for North Korea to expect an invasion say, 15 years ago, before they developed nulcear weapons. The North Korean leadership is paranoid. Which is why they spend precious resources on building weapons and allow millions to starve to death instead of creating a functional economy. These aren't rational people.

You mean after our new President broke off all communication with them after taking office because the Bush administration considered the policy Clinton had worked out with the North in 1994 to freeze and dismantle their nuclear program "appeasement"? You mean around the time they were literally being referred to by the President of the United States as part of the Axis of evil, right on the list next to Iraq? That's when they had absolutely no reason to fear that the US might do something?

Because Bush called them that in January 2002. Exactly 15 years ago.

 

[Silvard]

It sucks that it's happening but the only way the regime can guarantee its continued existence is to demonstrate the cost of aggressing them.

Once you get a nuclear arsenal you become basically immune to conventional warfare and invasion and to covert or overt attempts at destabilization; there's no guarantee that nuclear weapons won't fall into the wrong hands, by accident or contingency, if the regime is deposed.

 

[4Tran]

Panicking won't do anything anyway. The problem here is that two major powers--China and US, have been totally inept at containing these idiots. Really, I think it's China's problem to solve. The issue is that we're allied with Japan and SK, who they continue to antagonize.

What do you propose that China does? Especially given that their preference is for the status quo, and that North Korea has not been shy about executing pro-Chinese generals.

 

[Aureon]

Why does their survival depend on that?

Because if the threat isn't credible, a strike against their government becomes feasible.
And as recent history shows (Iraq and Ukraine), there's really no telling if that may happen.

 

[Admiral Woofington]

What do you propose that China does? Especially given that their preference is for the status quo, and that North Korea has not been shy about executing pro-Chinese generals.

China needs to give them an ultimatum. Stop with the shit immediately or they won't stop other countries from retaliating.

 

[pixelation]

Yo... i am hearing strange rumblings in the sky here in SoCal and came running to this thread...

 

[George Washington]

Its wrong.

You can't say they're ensuring their demise, that's ludicrous. There's no basis for saying that unless you think a US invasion with a guarantee of nuclear war is inevitable.



Maybe read some IR lit? There's debate but here are few.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/29/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-missile.html?mcubz=0&_r=0

You keep posting random articles that posit things about NK but their strategic rational.

The goal of the regime is to remain in power. Ironically, the way they are approaching this is ensuring the fastest method of their demise. It wouldn't be ludicrous from their perspective, but from ours it is. For example, instead of nuclear testing / icbm, they could have been working on biological toxins as a deterrent. Something that doesn't draw as much attention as firing missiles, especially over another country. When the time comes, unleash it.

Those articles were not random, they were in response to someone saying that North Korea has no allies. China is/was (still up for debate) an ally of North Korea, supplying everything they need to keep the country going. Those articles talk about China's role in supporting the regime.

The article you posted proves my last point, contradicts itself, and also fails to mention the erroding relationship between China and NK. If history has proved that this method rarely works, why pursue it?

So what is driving the North’s actions? Earlier assessments pegged the country as irrational or warped by its own ideology. But virtually every expert now dismisses those explanations, saying that North Korea has managed its history-defying survival too cannily to be anything but coldly rational.
.
.
.
The country says that it plans — and analysts increasingly take this claim seriously — to force the world to accept it as a full member of the international community and, eventually, to reconcile with the United States and South Korea on its terms.

North Korea envisions the United States one day concluding that it has grown too powerful to coerce and the status quo too risky to maintain, leading Washington to accept a grand bargain in which it would drop sanctions and withdraw some or all of its forces from South Korea.

Research on nuclear diplomacy offers two lessons: that North Korea’s strategy is likely to fail and that the country is likely to try anyway.

Nuclear threats rarely succeed in extracting concessions from adversaries, according to a book-length study by the political scientists Todd S. Sechser and Matthew Fuhrmann.

Nuclear threats are simply not believable; the consequences of using the weapons are seen as too great to be credible. As a result, nuclear states are less likely to successfully coerce an adversary than non-nuclear states, which can more credibly threaten war.

And because nuclear weapons heighten the risk to both sides, they tend to lock the status quo in place — the opposite of North Korea’s goal.

We are past the point of nuclear threats not being believable (for the surrounding countries). If they are trying to follow China's method, the article also says why that would fail.

One would assume that any regime would want to continue its existance, and as I have said, they are erasing that future by straining the relationship with China (it's only ally / lifeline) and provocating the surrounding coutnries, irrational behavior in my view.

The Global Times, published by the Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily called their actions irrational:

The latest missile test is "dangerously provocative," which shows that North Korea makes irrational decisions, and they might harm the country's national security and interests, said Chu Yin, an associate professor at Beijing's University of International Relations.

"The failed launch will not create deterrence. The US has already delivered a tough message to Pyongyang by sending an aircraft carrier strike group to the Korean Peninsula, so it would not be a surprise if the US launches a unilateral military strike," Chu said.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1042618.shtml

Sorry but I'm sure China has better experts on this issue than those in the article you linked.

 

[KHarvey16]

For example, instead of nuclear testing / icbm, they could have been working on biological toxins as a deterrent. Something that doesn't draw as much attention as firing missiles, especially over another country. When the time comes, unleash it.

They already have those.

Also, it can't be an effective deterrent if it isn't known about.

If NK goes about its business the way it is it will not be invaded by the US or its allies. They've ensured that through the loud and obvious development of weapons of mass destruction.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

"Next target is Guam, North Korea says"
http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/29/asia/north-korea-missile-launch-guam-threat/index.html
ugh such a messed up headline for CNN to have

 

[Pancake Mix]

North Korea is the last country you want to have nukes. This won't end well, they always go back on their word, always.

A hereditary communist dictatorship shut off from the outside world that thinks everyone is a threat, maybe except for their northern neighbours (China and Russia, yes there's a small border) and a few unstable regimes they can sell arms to.

They also have unstable access to food and feeding the party elites and their massive standing army comes first....

 

[4Tran]

China needs to give them an ultimatum. Stop with the shit immediately or they won't stop other countries from retaliating.

How in the world is that supposed to help things? We already know that North Korea doesn't have much faith that China will offer much substantial help otherwise they wouldn't have executed the pro-Chinese generals. We also know that China has been dropping pretty big hints at North Korea up to and including imposing sanctions. All an ultimatum would accomplish would be to lose what little hold China has on North Korea on a relatively empty threat.

A hereditary communist dictatorship shut off from the outside world that thinks everyone is a threat, maybe except for their northern neighbours (China and Russia, yes there's a small border) and a few unstable regimes they can sell arms to.

North Korea thinks of China as a potential threat as well.

 

[Occam]

You mean after our new President broke off all communication with them after taking office because the Bush administration considered the policy Clinton had worked out with the North in 1994 to freeze and dismantle their nuclear program "appeasement"? You mean around the time they were literally being referred to by the President of the United States as part of the Axis of evil, right on the list next to Iraq? That's when they had absolutely no reason to fear that the US might do something?

Because Bush called them that in January 2002. Exactly 15 years ago.

Yet nothing happened. There was no credible threat to North Korea 15 years ago for various reasons.

Anyway, back to the current situation: instead of functioning as a deterrent, North Korea's efforts to create a nuclear arsenal with global reach may have the opposite effect. We'll see.

 

[PatThePassive]

I sure hope our generations holocaust doesn't end with a nuclear bomb.

I still say we are going to be torn apart by future generations(if there will be any) for letting the inhuman treatment of the north Korean people carry on.

I would love a solution like the US removes their bases from SK so china would allow the north to rejoin the south and china wouldn't have the excuse of wanting to prevent a nation with US bases being on their border to prop up another NK regime.

With both China and the US supporting Korean so that they can reintegrate the North Koreans but this probably wont happen ever.


And before someone says my "our generations holocaust" is being dramatic, if half the stuff that the people who have escaped NK have said goes on is true its really really fucking bad so I don't think I'm being dramatic.

 

[Buba Big Guns]

China needs to give them an ultimatum. Stop with the shit immediately or they won't stop other countries from retaliating.

At this point, it's highly unlikely China would step in at all, even if it were a pre-emptive strike. It's the destruction of Seoul and Tokyo that's stopping any sort of strike from happening.

The opportunity to take out the regime conventionally is long gone. They have miniaturized nukes, and they nearly have an ICBM that can reach the continental US.

Kim will probably wait it out until the international community just learns to live with it.

 

[Mr Swine]

I'm afraid that this gives other countries the opportunity to get nukes without much happening to them other than sanctions

 

[thetrin]

Why is GAF so scared of everything? Videogame players seem to panic a lot.

Just GAF being GAF.

I live in Japan, so I'm going to fucking worry, thank you.

 

[reckless]

I'm afraid that this gives other countries the opportunity to get nukes without much happening to them other than sanctions

More then just giving other countries the opportunity to, it incentivizes them to, once they get them they are safe, if you give your nuclear program you become Libya, Iraq, Ukraine...

Can't wait for nuclear proliferation around the world.

 

[hamauzu kaito]

Maybe read some IR lit? There's debate but here are few.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/29/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-missile.html?mcubz=0&_r=0

Thank you for sharing this! Everyone should read that piece. The attitude of the author is very balanced. We need more articles like this.

 

[8-Bit Sunset]

I live in Japan, so I'm going to fucking worry, thank you.

I hear you brother.
Being woken up like that by my phone and the emergency broadcast sure woke me up quick.
Seeing that J-alert on every channel promoted me to start this thread to take my mind off of it for a while.
That sure was an uneasy 30 mins.

Originally Posted by Madchad

Why is GAF so scared of everything? Videogame players seem to panic a lot.

Just GAF being GAF.

Then you get people on here posting from the comfort of their mom's basement 1000's of miles away wondering what we were panicking about whilst we are stuck smack bang in the middle of this mess.
Is it too much to ask that some posters to put yourself in our shoes for a minute before posting crap like that?

 

[Doomshroom]

a friend got a warning saying she had 3 min to get underground. She lives on the 41 floor, she went for chocolate insted.

 

[T-0800]

What would happen if a sane US President offered to visit NK to and work things out? Would they be welcomed or rejected?

 

[MisterFalcon]

What would happen if a sane US President offered to visit NK to and work things out? Would they be welcomed or rejected?

The same as the previous times, after the aid is received the North Koreans find a reason to back out of the deal.

 

[iRAWRasaurus]

I haven't kept up with this, has China said anything?

 

[brian577]

I haven't kept up with this, has China said anything?

Only that's the US's fault for holding the exercises and that they should negotiate.

 

[Blizzard]

Only that's the US's fault for holding the exercises and that they should negotiate.

Is that all that needed done? Dang, I wish someone had thought of that sooner. Now we just need a volunteer to negotiate. I nominate Trump. Anyone second to pass the motion?

 

[Plasma]

I see the UN Security Council have condemned them, that'll make them think twice.

 

[iRAWRasaurus]

Only that's the US's fault for holding the exercises and that they should negotiate.

Same shit, different day. I thought since the missile passed over Japan, China might say something different. Guess I was wrong.

 

[TarNaru33]

Thank god you're not leading the military.

Meh, I don't even care about their rationality honestly, I just don't want another country with nukes and if that means another Korean War I am okay with that. It is the only war I would back Trump on I think.

 

[witchedwiz]

Why is GAF so scared of everything? Videogame players seem to panic a lot.

Just GAF being GAF.

....
I can't understand whether you're actually stupid or you're trolling.....

 

[ManUnkindH]

That fucking fat cunt will start WW3, won't he?

 

[gofreak]

They don't.

Well, they DID some ICBM interception tests, and a couple of them succeeded (I think it was 2/5 a couple months ago). They claim it was a real-case simulation, but we only have their promises (they've already did "missile interception" demonstrations with a homing beacon IN the targeted missile).

They're also well know for misinformation. Remember the Patriots against the scuds in 90-91:
- claimed during the war: 45 success out of 47 attacks, 95% success rate
- after the war: between 2% and 9% of success rate (1 to 4 success out of 47), depending on who you ask (Israel, USA) and the secretary of defense said in 2001 "The Patriots didn't work"

I really doubt you can even remotely reliabily take an ICBM down, let alone have them deployed and ready.

I believe THAAD actually has a 100% shoot down rate (in tests). Thing is, if it ever misses, that only hurts our "anti-missile tech".

While the tech may be very good, it seems like it's less of an anti-missile program and more of a disincentive for North Korea starting shit.

just read this a while ago

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-...cult-to-intercept-an-icbm/8684444?pfmredir=sm

Thanks guys, very interesting. Seems things are perhaps far from robust - and evidently based on NK firings like this, not really 'at-the-ready' to engage with things outside of test conditions. Maybe there's a greater incentive than ever now to try to bring these systems to a more effective and ready state.

 

[SolVanderlyn]

Really lttp on this, but waking up to this

Didn't feel real. There's no basement here, and the stores were all closed that early, which meant that, despite the warning, if the missile had been targeting us, I could have done nothing but sit here and accept whatever came my way.

Scary stuff.

 

[Madchad]

....
I can't understand whether you're actually stupid or you're trolling.....

Erm why am i being highlighted here i was quoting someone else ?

You think people on here dont overeact ?

 

[T-0800]

I see the UN Security Council have condemned them, that'll make them think twice.

The UN is like a relief teacher who is trying to get the class bully to sit down.

 

[Goodlife]

I know it's more complex than all this, but I still don't fully get why it's "fair" that America, with their (modern) history of direct and indirect regime changes and thousands of nukes gets to tell other countries that they aren't allowed nukes.

 

[iRAWRasaurus]

I know it's more complex than all this, but I still don't fully get why it's "fair" that America, with their (modern) history of direct and indirect regime changes and thousands of nukes gets to tell other countries that they aren't allowed nukes.

Cause we are the only superpower having the strongest military, economics influences and "Merika Fuck Yeah".

 

[Blues1990]

Really lttp on this, but waking up to this

Didn't feel real. There's no basement here, and the stores were all closed that early, which meant that, despite the warning, if the missile had been targeting us, I could have done nothing but sit here and accept whatever came my way.

Scary stuff.

That's a frightening thought.

 

[Meadows]

I know it's more complex than all this, but I still don't fully get why it's "fair" that America, with their (modern) history of direct and indirect regime changes and thousands of nukes gets to tell other countries that they aren't allowed nukes.

Because America is a generally responsible world actor that has been in a number of wars since WW2 and has never used nuclear weapons.

This is the same case for Russia, Israel, the UK, China and France. All of these countries have shown restraint even during the conflicts they have taken part in.

 

[Poor GRIMES]

Meh, I don't even care about their rationality honestly, I just don't want another country with nukes and if that means another Korean War I am okay with that. It is the only war I would back Trump on I think.

Are you in the service?

If not, are you then ready to sacrifice your life for a pointless war in the event that you get drafted?

 

[TarNaru33]

Are you in the service?

If not, are you then ready to sacrifice your life for a pointless war in the event that you get drafted?

I don't find keeping another country from getting nukes as pointless, nor the salvation of North Korean people. So yes, I am aware of such a possibility of being drafted. I would of been in the service, but health issues kept me from it.

 

[danowat]

Just out of curiosity, I see many statements that read like "NK is the worst people you'd want with a nuclear weapon" (let's be honest, anyone with a nuke isn't the best result), how do those people feel about the fact that Pakistan and Israel both have nuclear weapons?, especially Pakistan who ranks 4th on the global terrorism index, behind Iraq, Afghanistan & Nigeria, or is this just not considered a threat because their government isn't outwardly threatening?

 

[brian577]

Just out of curiosity, I see many statements that read like "NK is the worst people you'd want with a nuclear weapon" (let's be honest, anyone with a nuke isn't the best result), how do those people feel about the fact that Pakistan and Israel both have nuclear weapons?, especially Pakistan who ranks 4th on the global terrorism index, behind Iraq, Afghanistan & Nigeria, or is this just not considered a threat because their government isn't outwardly threatening?

Most countries with nukes don't actively threaten to use them. They're supposed to be a deterrent not something you use to blackmail your neighbors.