nekkid
It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
I think it would go completely the other way, to be honest.
North Korea launches missile that passes over Japan
- Thread starter 8-Bit Sunset
- Start date
I think it would go completely the other way, to be honest.
Huh, I admit, I didn't know about that. Seems it probably wasn't capable of launching a nuclear payload though and NK didn't even have miniaturized nukes back then. I mean, that's what this launch is threatening and why it's such a huge escalation.
That's all I'm trying to say, this shouldn't be business as usual. I feel like people are trying to fight me on this point, but this launch is actually a big deal. I'm not even trying to argue what we should do about it, I just think people should be taking the North Korean threat more seriously.
There's people in this thread acting like this has happened before but it's really not the same thing, this is insanely dangerious behavior.
Scuds can carry a nuclear warhead so their version probably could as well. The problem is in getting the warhead small enough to fit on a missile, not making the ballistic missile intercontinental.
I was just looking at the wikipedia article that said it could only carry a very small payload. So maybe I'm misinterpreting, but even if that means it could carry a miniaturized nuclear payload, they didn't have miniaturized nukes back then. Nowadays, it seems like they either do, or are at least close.
The real issue is NK having the ability to launch a nuclear payload and actively threatening civilians with that ability.
I wouldn't exactly call a 5-80kt payload small. Maybe in comparison, but still more than enough to destroy a city.
aygomyownroad
Member
We don't need nuclear weapons. Just fire a few drone strikes at military targets, ramp up the presence at the border.
He needs to see that the military might of America and Japan is much more powerful than he seems to realise
He needs to see that the military might of America and Japan is much more powerful than he seems to realise
A direct strike is an act of war. That is begging for retaliation from a nuclear power that isn't afraid to take the world to hell with them.
NK knows exactly what they're doing. They are brutally rational about what they're doing, because they know exactly the threat they pose and to what extent they can push powerful countries around to demonstrate their foregin prowess.
When it comes to unstabilizing the region, they have the upper hand. That's why even China can't contain them.
We can't open that pandora's box. They have Seoul and Tokyo at the palm of their hands.
And we've reached the point where they could actually have nukes capable of doing that sort of damage.
And if they are, any method capable of delivering that payload, travelling towards civilians, has an entirely different meaning.
My point is that they've already demonstrated the delivery vehicle years ago. So freaking out over this is pointless (in relation to Japan).
I don't think we have entirely incompatible points. I just feel that the fact that they actually now have the ability to make good on their threats (in regards to payload and a continued demonstration of ability) makes these threats mean more. And judging by the Japanese government's response, they feel the same way. We can't just continue to consider these idle threats but potential disasters.
I mean, if NK tested a missile over the US, would you really just be like, ah it's just NK doing their thing.
They have had the ability to strike Japan for decades. Whether they could do with a nuke or not is relevant considering their stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons.
The only difference now is that it takes a single missile instead of dozens to kill the same number people.
BudokaiMR2
Member
Interesting. I was too young to remember that incident. I still think that the fact that incident was almost 20 years ago and the fact that they haven't repeated the same thing until today would count it as a huge escalation.
they had a permit for that missile
... North Korea threatens the US and it's allies with nuclear attacks. They seem to now have the means to make that a reality. They fire an ICBM towards a civilian population of one of our allies. ICBMs, pretty much only used for nuclear payloads. I'm just trying to argue that this is a large escalation.
I'm trying to be reasonable here.
?
Nice, you should be sitting next to Trump's military advisors.
Consider why this missile went over Japan and only Japan. NK knew they could get away with it. If it had come anywhere near Guam, Hawaii or the US mainland that would have an escalation, but it didn't because they still fear American retaliation.
Chinese response is just pathetic. They really are going to drag this out as long possible aren't they? One they'll regret not taking a more aggressive stance towards NK.
it's a joke
MosquitoSmasher
Member
What's the latest on this guys? First page sounded scary.
Oops. Heh.
Right, so escalation but not up until the point of retaliation.
I just don't understand why I'm having to make this argument. It's like people are trying to hammer home the point that everything's fine, to the point where they're pretending that there's no differences in circumstances.
This is escalation. I'm not even saying anything's going to happen, I don't understand the how people could argue against what is obviously the case. North Korea is escalating the situation. This is fact.
Monkeyball
Banned
That's a very reasonable response by China. But how well can you talk to an idiot thats throwing fire crackers at you?
Why is GAF so scared of everything? Videogame players seem to panic a lot.
For a good 10 minutes no one knew it was going to fly over the country and most of the country was on alert and told it was fired towards them. That's why everyone was so panicky. Open Twitter or talk to someone from Japan, it was very hectic in the moment right after.
It's easy to pretend you're cool and composed when you're reading this from the comfort behind your computer. When your government start broadcasting "A MISSILE IS HEADED OUR WAY" on every channel and pushed to your phones? Not so much.
lemmykoopa
Junior Member
Where did NK get all the materials to build all these rockets and missiles? I'm surprised a rogue nation could come so far.
China: Don't provoke NK.
Bruh they just launched a missile over Japan, don't trot out your vanilla foreign ministry shit for this.
The one thing I've learned from a number of years of watching international politics and being able to kind of see long term trends and patterns is that China is the anti-Russia.
Russia has a very poor hand to play with, in that they have a weak economy, a military that is actually shrinking in a lot of ways and very few allies around the world, but they manage to keep the agenda going in a way that suits them.
China on the other hand have a great, growing economy, good trade links, a growing military and decent relations with a number of actors (incl. Russia). But whenever it comes to stuff like this they have absolutely no idea what they're doing. From the completely tone-deaf "nine dash line" demarcation to its inability to influence the NK government, it has to improve its statecraft if it wants to increase its global, or even regional influence.
I really do find it hard to believe that China does actually want NK to keep being this unstable, as it makes no sense in terms of China's regional and economic goals. I just think it literally has no sway over NK, and doesn't want to lose face by writing the country off.
Bruh they just launched a missile over Japan, don't trot out your vanilla foreign ministry shit for this.
The one thing I've learned from a number of years of watching international politics and being able to kind of see long term trends and patterns is that China is the anti-Russia.
Russia has a very poor hand to play with, in that they have a weak economy, a military that is actually shrinking in a lot of ways and very few allies around the world, but they manage to keep the agenda going in a way that suits them.
China on the other hand have a great, growing economy, good trade links, a growing military and decent relations with a number of actors (incl. Russia). But whenever it comes to stuff like this they have absolutely no idea what they're doing. From the completely tone-deaf "nine dash line" demarcation to its inability to influence the NK government, it has to improve its statecraft if it wants to increase its global, or even regional influence.
I really do find it hard to believe that China does actually want NK to keep being this unstable, as it makes no sense in terms of China's regional and economic goals. I just think it literally has no sway over NK, and doesn't want to lose face by writing the country off.
SchrodingerC
Member
NK has pulled this stunt before, nothing unpredictable about it.
I woke up at around 6am in Osaka and turned the TV on and saw the message on each channel. Quite eerie. It really is a bit different when you're in the country.
I wonder why right-wing pundits are pitching the idea that "Bill Clinton did it" minutes after it happened... it's not like Trump is a weak leader or a incompetent one or anything. He only promised everyone that we would simply talk "the honorable gentleman" out of it. Let's hear him out on his plan for this situation.
Ovek
7Member7
Regardless of all the UN trade embargos other countries still trade with NK. That and I'm sure NK has stock piled the materials to build and fuel new rockets for a long ass time.
Also with a rocket flying over a US ally why pray tell did they not use the THAAD defence missile network? Is it because it doesn't work, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it doesn't work.
Men, just try to imaging that you are the OP and you are woken up by an alarm saying there's a missile flying over your head and nobody knows if this is an attack.
Personally I would be terrified.
Did you predict fellow gaffers would be awoken by phone alerts telling them to get to the nearest shelter?
Like years ago, I'm sure I read somewhere about it
BudokaiMR2
Member
A missile like this hasn't been fired over Japan in almost 20 years. It's not the same situation as any of the ones since 1998.
Monkeyball
Banned
Yeah, but I doubt all those people panicing are in Japan. That's the point.
Imagine waking up to a nation wide alert that a hostile foreign missile is currently flying over the country and that citizens should seek cover.
GAF being GAF though. Nothing to see here.
Shooting down a payload-less missile is basically just changing the point of impact. Given that the missile flew over Japan, shooting it down would have been counter-productive.
In terms of THAAD, I wouldn't be surprised if it was '70% effective', which would be either awesome or completely useless against a single missile.
encephalon
Member
You must be south of Ibaraki and ... Niigata?
eot
Banned
There's a difference in how hard they are to intercept
MosquitoSmasher
Member
This!
If I was president, I would of gave the order to shoot down all missiles from NK. The reason U.S hasn't yet done it, is because it choose not to, to keep from escalation. It is not because it "doesn't work". There is an effective percentage though, not all THAAD intercepts will be successful which is why I rather we just end the NK regime before they do have the ability to put it on missiles.
Patrick Bateman
Member
I mean it's obviously not ok to launch a missile over a country, but is it always necessary by the US an SK to provoke NK with their military games and maneuvers?
Kim is looking out of his window, wants to play tough and launches a missile.
SK, USA and Japan see that launch, want to play tough, speak out threats and do military games right infront of NK.
How's that supposed to defuse this tensed situation?
Kim is looking out of his window, wants to play tough and launches a missile.
SK, USA and Japan see that launch, want to play tough, speak out threats and do military games right infront of NK.
How's that supposed to defuse this tensed situation?
SchrodingerC
Member
It's more how NK is constantly testing missiles, particularly to seem threatening and belligerent. While yes a missile flying pass Japan should cause pass, this action is within NK's usual MO.
I think we will be seeing more military games from the countries above. In retaliation China would also hold their own military games with Russia.
This shit goes on all the time, its like a dick contest. What NK is doing is nothing new, if people have been paying attention to NK. The only time NK was quiet were the sunshine policy years and they proved they could be worked with.
NK is not threatened by China or Russia. Context matters.
If russia suddenly starts to train the invasion of the US in Mexico how would americans feel about that?
NK is obviously in the wrong but the US and SK are happily throwing oil into the fire
theignoramus
Member
NK won't stop antagonising Japan with this type of stunt.
Who said NK is threatened by them? Read the post.
A military exercise by Japan, SK and US, only strengthens China. No one said anything about NK being threatened by China or Russia.
Hazelhurst
Member
Shit is starting to get real.
Vivalaraza
Member
The US is really good at this kind of intervention.
Please take the time to do even the slightest amount of research before making statements like this.