I'd much rather there be this "hysteria" 5 days out which results in people actually being prepared and possibly saving their lives than complacency which would have the opposite effect.
Atlantic Hurricane season 2017 |OT|
- Thread starter perfectchaos007
- Start date
I'd much rather there be this "hysteria" 5 days out which results in people actually being prepared and possibly saving their lives than complacency which would have the opposite effect.
fluffydelusions
Member
Still gaining though but yeah here we are.
Master Yoshi
Member
Hurricane Andrew 2: Electric Boogaloo
Still gaining though but yeah here we are.
maquiladora
Member
Recon just found 923mb (extrap). Maybe about 925mb in reality.
Official update (before recon passed)
Official update (before recon passed)
fluffydelusions
Member
.
ladyluthien
Member
Wow this thing just exploded almost over night. My family is preparing just in case. Most of the grocery stores have been cleaned out.
maquiladora
Member
Latest track.
Abstruse Moose
Member
If that thing makes it to the gulf it'll be catastrophic.
mentallyinept
Banned
180 sustained makes it tied for 3rd all time...
And it's still what... 4 days away from Florida?
And it's still what... 4 days away from Florida?
mordecaii83
Member
Vestal
Junior Member
By tomorrow afternoon over 4 million people will have been impacted by a Category 5 hurricane. It will be a Catastrophe by then.
Latest track.
So wait, that looks like it's going into the Gulf unless it takes an immediate and severe turn north right after? Could that mean more of a panhandle area landfall?
mordecaii83
Member
Most of the models show it doing exactly that (sharp north turn)...
perfectchaos007
Member
Latest track.
Urgh it's going to thread the eye of the needle. That gives it more sea time and less land interaction.
While we all ripped on GFS with it's pressure estimates it could get worryingly close at some points of the track. There's nothing to stop it dropping another 20MB or so.
Zombie James
Banned
Canadian model:
maabus1999
Member
That is what all the models are predicting at this time. The big take away is Irma is pretty much setup to hit somewhere in the US now.
Insane Metal
Member
Damn, best of luck to the people in its path 
It should lose strength once it hits land though right?
It should lose strength once it hits land though right?
Latest track.
I'm not sure what this means....does it going through Hispaniola mean that it could be weakened, not sure what the terrain is like?
Canadian model:
The Canadian model is not a tropical model and should not be used to forecast tropical storms.
As a reminder, the GFS and HMON have decoupled themselves from Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Sea Surface Temperatures in their newest updates because coupled SSTs were giving the models track inaccuracies. The pressure readings shown on either of those models are not accurate, nor are they close to the theoretical pressure minimum for that part of the Atlantic Ocean.
maquiladora
Member
It's forecast to be anywhere inside that cone.
If it threads the needle, meaning the eye stays over water, you won't see much weakening.
maquiladora
Member
927mb is quite high pressure for 180mph winds actually. You'd expect to see something closer to 900mb with 180mph winds.
180mph winds are what you'd expect in an EF-4 scale tornado.
fluffydelusions
Member
Irma going right over Puerto Rico?
fluffydelusions
Member
I know we are all on Irma but....Jose has formed
Snkfanatic
Banned
I've had five texts this morning from family and friends asking what I'm going to do now...
Now I'm getting freaked out
You should really consider leaving and staying somewhere safer. Please don't take this storm lightly.
You may see a little weakening due to the outflow bands being obstructed or more likely, due to a few eyewall replacement cycles. The real issue with this storm is its forecasted size. Should the storm grow in size, it is less likely to weaken substantially because Irma will have more surface area over the ocean than it would with land.
But looking at that track, if it sticks to it, it barely grazes FL, mostly around the Keys...
Smiles and Cries
Member
I know we are all on Irma but....Jose has formed
at least this track curves out to sea early
Tal Shiar Agent
Banned
What's the record for number of hurricanes (not including tropical storms) that made landfall in a single season?
There is a cold frontgoing through Houston tomorrow late morning and that is what will cause the sudden turn. Every Houston area weather person I listened to during Harvey has said as much
Snkfanatic
Banned
I know we are all on Irma but....Jose has formed
Hopefully it goes out to sea.
But the cone expands because of the uncertainty that far out. The cone is that wide, because the center of the storm is predicted to be anywhere in that cone. Every part of that cone is in danger of a direct hit.
There is absolutely no reason for you to be concerned about that.
maquiladora
Member
Don't focus on the center of the cone. It's forecast to be anywhere within that cone at that point and keep it mind that if it was sitting over the Keys at that point, the hurricane force wind field would be wide enough to cover all of South Florida.
Solidsnakejej
Member
Basically a buzzsaw right now
maquiladora
Member
Irma was supposed to be a fish too.
smokeandmirrors
Banned
Basically a buzzsaw right now
damn.
Fuck.
Smiles and Cries
Member
maybe 2005 Katrina, Rita, and Wilma
interesting records here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records
I did not think of Irma as a fish, I saw it coming for NJ NYC then it started trending south NC then now South Florida
let's hope Jose does not start to trend south by Friday
AngryChinchilla
Member
2004 was bad in Florida. We missed so many days of school that they extended the school year into summer. Central Florida was not done cleaning up the last one before the next one rolled through.
