Atlantic Hurricane season 2017 |OT|

maquiladora said:
Heading for landfall in the Carolinas as an incredibly intense hurricane. Florida is saved on this run. Nightmare for forecasters.....

gfs_pres_wind_watl_25.png
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God damnit.
 
Griss said:
Every single forecast for the past 48 hours has said it would immediately turn slightly north (or have done so by now) and yet as of 8pm it's still heading due west. What is it that all of these models have been missing for the past 48 hours? Why can't they adjust in a way that if they've had the forecast incorrect in a certain direction for so many forecasts in a row, that they start taking that into account?

If this thing misses us south I'll be very happy, but I'll be frustrated that for days and days we were told it was about to turn and come for us when literally every update said that actually no it was still moving west.

I know it's an imprecise science, I'm just tense. It just makes little sense to me that the forecasts can be wrong in the same direction so many times in a row.
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I'm not sure what you're referring to. The models have it moving North as it reaches the Florida Keys, which won't be until the weekend. They pretty much all have it continuing on its WNW trajectory until then.
 
Griss said:
Every single forecast for the past 48 hours has said it would immediately turn slightly north (or have done so by now) and yet as of 8pm it's still heading due west. What is it that all of these models have been missing for the past 48 hours? Why can't they adjust in a way that if they've had the forecast incorrect in a certain direction for so many forecasts in a row, that they start taking that into account?

If this thing misses us south I'll be very happy, but I'll be frustrated that for days and days we were told it was about to turn and come for us when literally every update said that actually no it was still moving west.

I know it's an imprecise science, I'm just tense. It just makes little sense to me that the forecasts can be wrong in the same direction so many times in a row.
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Watch these videos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l30eClrQtCA

They do a good job of breaking down what steers a hurricane and why it can be so imprecise
 
Steejee said:
I'm not sure what you're referring to. The models have it moving North as it reaches the Florida Keys, which won't be until the weekend. They pretty much all have it continuing on its WNW trajectory until then.
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I'm in the Turks and Caicos. The models have had it hitting us directly for the last three days because it was supposed to turn to the north (ie start moving WNW, which is a northernly turn), but it hasn't. So my question is why they kept predicting this turn for 48 hours or more when it just hasn't happened and doesn't seem like it's going to happen. They've scared the shit out of us with these forecasts which may end up having been totally incorrect, but more frustratingly incorrect in the same way for each one, every three hours, despite seeing that they were getting it wrong every 3 hours.

TarpitCarnivore said:
Watch these videos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l30eClrQtCA

They do a good job of breaking down what steers a hurricane and why it can be so imprecise
Click to expand...

Thanks, will watch now.
 
Griss said:
I'm in the Turks and Caicos. The models have had it hitting us directly for the last three days because it was supposed to turn to the north (ie start moving WNW, which is a northernly turn), but it hasn't. So my question is why they kept predicting this turn for 48 hours or more when it just hasn't happened and doesn't seem like it's going to happen. They've scared the shit out of us with these forecasts which may end up having been totally incorrect, but more frustratingly incorrect in the same way for each one, every three hours, despite seeing that they were getting it wrong every 3 hours.
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Watch the NHC track, not the models. It has been spot on. Also, read the NHC discussions on the track. It may say west but the details are in the discussion. From the 5PM:

Fixes from the latest satellite and radar imagery suggest that Irma
is moving a little north of due west or 280/13 kt. A strong ridge
extending southwestward from the central Atlantic is expected to
steer Irma west-northwestward during the couple of days. A large
mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States is forecast to
lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to build westward and keep
Irma on a westward to west-northwestward heading through Friday.
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1FqMMpD.jpg
 
Well, I really hope it does slam into the Cape Fear area like in some of thos models. We're basically the bullseye of the East Coast.
 
maquiladora said:
Heading for landfall in the Carolinas as an incredibly intense hurricane. Florida is saved on this run. Nightmare for forecasters.....

gfs_pres_wind_watl_25.png
Click to expand...
I'm not buy any path for another 24 hours. This morning Irma was going to thread the needle into the Gulf. Now, a dramatic northern turn. Still too early to be definitive.
 
Pretty good chance that Harvey & Irma will be the first time on record that two cat-4 hurricanes hit the continental US in the same year.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...er-where-it-makes-landfall/?ex_cid=538twitter
Irma could make landfall in the continental U.S. as a Category 4 storm, as Harvey did in August. Since 1851, there hasn’t been another year in which two Category 4 storms have directly affected the continental U.S.
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Some info on hurricane tracking accuracy:
An average five-day track forecast is off by greater than 200 miles. That’s over 60 miles wider than the distance from St. Petersburg on the western coast of Florida to Vero Beach on the east.
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The error cone exists not out of an abundance of caution by a government agency but because of real mathematical uncertainty about where the storm will go. A track that takes Irma east or west of the Florida Peninsula — and anywhere in between — is still possible.

The most likely track, however, remains the center of that cone, which currently passes very close to the Florida Keys.
Click to expand...
 
Griss said:
I'm in the Turks and Caicos. The models have had it hitting us directly for the last three days because it was supposed to turn to the north (ie start moving WNW, which is a northernly turn), but it hasn't. So my question is why they kept predicting this turn for 48 hours or more when it just hasn't happened and doesn't seem like it's going to happen. They've scared the shit out of us with these forecasts which may end up having been totally incorrect, but more frustratingly incorrect in the same way for each one, every three hours, despite seeing that they were getting it wrong every 3 hours.



Thanks, will watch now.
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See the NHC forecast. There is ALWAYS going to be a margin of error which is why they have the cones.

Unfortunately when it comes to a hurricane 50-100 miles can mean all the difference and you cant realistically pinpoint landfalls so far out.

Also 48 hours ago it was supposed to be heading southwest which is what it did. It wasn't supposed to make the turn until now which is happening
 
Slayer-33 said:
God dammit don't hit DR or PR and rest of the Islands hard plz.. Ugh.. I got fam in both..
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Looks like they may get skimmed by the eyewall, I suppose the bright side is that they are in the left quadrants of the storm. Hopefully they don't get hit too hard.
 
Omega Kirby said:
Disgusting how people do this shit before a category 5 storm,

DI7L8R-XcAA17he.jpg


Yes that advertising alcholoic beverages as emergency kits for hurricanes
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I work at a liquor store in Central Florida in a place that under even the worst circumstances is pretty unphased by a hurricane. I had more customers today then I do most Fridays, people really hit it hard during storms for whatever reason it makes sense to advertise. I had people come in to the store as Matthew was passing by last year.
 
Am I missing something? Irma isn't projexted to hit the gulf, right? Just left a Walmart in Mississippi and the water section was nearly cleared out.
 
Ehhhhhhh....

West Coat Tampa here, gonna have my world ROCKED for sure.

I can tell ya, people are going NUTS here, my store I work at was slammed straight all day, ran out of water entirely by 12pm.

Getting a 20 pallet truck with only 24pk water, watch it go instantly.

I hope my stuff survives in case I have to evac.
 
11PM NHC update just went up. Doesn't look like much has changed in regards to their forecast cone track over the 8PM incremental update.

024454_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Man if you see an empty gas station full of [out of orders] then park your bum onto one of the pumps until gas comes.

It is way faster than going into a line. It's how I got my gas. Though many don't have the time to wait.

So all set and ready for the evacuation signal. Maybe. Dunno yet.
 
TheSun said:
Man if you see an empty gas station full of [out of orders] then park your bum onto one of the pumps until gas comes.

It is way faster than going into a line. It's how I got my gas. Though many don't have the time to wait.

So all set and ready for the evacuation signal. Maybe. Dunno yet.
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In times like this I have had the most luck checking gas stations late at night (~midnight) when traffic and lines at the pumps are almost non-existant.
 
Central Florida here. Went to Publix for some BoGo lunch meats and beer and it was nuts. there were no extra carts. People were waiting in the parking lot at people's cars for them to unload their groceries so that they could take their cart. All water was gone off the shelves (of course) some other shelves were empty like soups and stuff. Crazy that this is happening like 5-6 days prior to the storm getting here (if we even get it bad).
I saw them bring out a pallet of bottled water as I was leaving and it all just get snatched up by a huge crowd immediately like black friday. One guy had like 6 cases in his cart which is like 150 bottles of water. They really should ration it out. I find it kind of funny, but yet quite sad that before the storm is full of so much selfishness with people taking more than they need, potentially wanting to resell. Yet, after the storm is about the community coming together to help each other.

Also got gas, which I had to do a little waiting, but it wasn't that bad.

Planning on staying with my parents down the road for the storm if it hits. We are pretty well stocked with supplies and their house was built more recently (building codes are made with these storms in mind). So all in all, I'm not too worried. If I was on the coast I would feel differently.
 
Holy shit @ the forecasted winds in St. Maarten.

This is a TAF (terminal area forecast) for TNCM airport:
TNCM -SXM - PRINCESS JULIANA INTL
10/28 7546
SA 060400Z 03022G37KT 9999 FEW017 SCT045 29/26 Q1005 A2970=
FT 060126Z 0601/0700 04018KT P6SM VCSH BKN017
FM060300 01025G35KT P6SM -SHRA VCSH SCT015 BKN060 OVC080
FM060500 33055G75KT 6SM -SHRA BKN025 OVC060
FM060700 300140G160KT 6SM -SHRA BKN015 OVC030
FM061100 26090G120KT 6SM -SHRA BKN015 OVC030
FM061700 20055G75KT 6SM -SHRA SCT025 BKN050=

That means that at 0700zulu winds at the airport will have at sustained speed of 140kts with gusts of up to 160kts.

On the other side, looks like only light showers, rain and the visibility will be more than 6 statute miles.
 
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