Halo Infinite didnt cost $500 million lol. People think game developers get paid a lot of money but recently they all went on twitter and most of them were making $60k or less. I wouldnt be surprised if the average salary is below $100k at most of these studios. Only senior programmers and senior level designers make $100-150k.
We know how much the first three Uncharteds cost. $20 million. ND had around 150 developers back then. We know how much GoW3 cost. $44 million. They had a little over 200 developers but they took an extra year to make GoW compared to ND with U2 and U3. So if 150 developers cost $10 million per year then we can assume that TLOU2 which had 300 developers and three years of full production likely cost $20 million per year for a total of $60 milliion. Lots of outsourcing goes on nowadays but its relatively cheap since its done in poor developing countries. Lets assume it's another $20 million. That's $80 million for TLOU2.
Now 343i has a lot more employees. 750 according to wikipedia. Using ND logic, we are looking at $50 million per year for 6 years. I do remember them being around 450 a few years ago, but lets leave out the outsourcing costs and just do a flat 750 devs * 6 years and $300 million. Very high but not even close to $500 million. And it's a year late so it wouldve been $250 million back when that stupid estimate came out.
P.S Halo 3 cost $35 million back in the day and had a $40 million marketing budget. Not sure how many employees were at Bungie at the time, but when Bungie went to Activision they had around 500 employees.
You really have to question the management over at 343i. They are making exceedingly mediocre games and taking an insane amount of resources and time to get them done.