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[sinnergy]

Apart from all the tweets and posts, I think it makes sense to look at the numbers and statistics as we currently find them with Omikron.

I think it's fair to say that we will survive.

Humanity will always survive .. it's at what price, nice all those theoretical numbers .

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

Apart from all the tweets and posts, I think it makes sense to look at the numbers and statistics as we currently find them with Omikron.

I think it's fair to say that we will survive.

So you are saying that viruses mutates into a more contagious but less deadly version? Who could have though

 

[QSD]

250 pages, a sad 'jubilee' for this topic. Sometimes it feels like this thread is hangs together from unwarranted snark. I like a joke as much as the next guy, but how about we try to leave our ego's at the door because literally nobody has all the answers.

 

[Vicetrailia]

250 pages, a sad 'jubilee' for this topic. Sometimes it feels like this thread is hangs together from unwarranted snark. I like a joke as much as the next guy, but how about we try to leave our ego's at the door because literally nobody has all the answers.

May not have all the answers, but this remains true.

Anti-Vax = wrong
Vax = right

 

[drotahorror]

Cases Florida

1,976 - 12/12
3,067 - 12/13
4,127 - 12/14
6,846 - 12/15
8,785 - 12/16

Cases New York

23,295 - 12/12
8,993 - 12/13
8,266 - 12/14
12,944 - 12/15
18,276 - 12/16

 

[Rentahamster]

Comparing Florida vs New York?

 

[QSD]

May not have all the answers, but this remains true.

Anti-Vax = wrong
Vax = right

The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.
- Bertrand Russell.

Blindly opposing vaccinations isn't smart, but critical assessment of current covid policies is definitely warranted. The new lockdowns here in the Netherlands will cause massive problems for many private businesses. It's an open question whether 100% vaccine uptake could have stopped this.

 

[Rentahamster]

It's an open question whether 100% vaccine uptake could have stopped this.

As long as everyone is within the 4-6 month sweet spot window, I think there is more evidence to suggest that it would that it wouldn't. That is the last element to vaccine effectiveness that the COVID19 vaccines still lack - high community uptake. One of the reasons the older vaccines work so well is because so many people got them in the past and continue to get them in the present. This makes it very hard for any of those old diseases to grab a foothold in the community to spread. 100% vaccination against COVID19 would certainly make a huge dent in the numbers as it would cut the amount of circulating virus down and eliminate many opportunities for transmission to occur.

 

[sinnergy]

Even if you have a 100 uptake , it's reduced to about 70% - 80 %because of vaccines wearing off , basically herd immunity cannot be reached since delta .

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

It's an open question whether 100% vaccine uptake could have stopped this.

The most affected regions are the ones with the highest vaccination rate. You literally have Middle East, Africa, Asia and even the original location - South Africa with 30% uptake - is affected less by Omicron than Europe. You can go even further east to eastern europe where it is also pretty mild. Northern Europe is also less affected by that. Now it is basically only the european mainland and UK - even Italy, Spain is out of it.

 

[Rentahamster]

Even if you have a 100 uptake , it's reduced to about 70% - 80 %because of vaccines wearing off , basically herd immunity cannot be reached since delta .

That's why I added the window of maximum effectiveness into my assessment. That would need to be maintained with booster shots until we discover how many booster shots are needed until the protection doesn't wane anymore, or new vaccines are created.

 

[sinnergy]

That's why I added the window of maximum effectiveness into my assessment. That would need to be maintained with booster shots until we discover how many booster shots are needed until the protection doesn't wane anymore, or new vaccines are created.

Around every 4 weeks , that's the plan in Germany, sounds great huh .

 

[Chaplain]

 

[Rentahamster]

Around every 4 weeks , that's the plan in Germany, sounds great huh .

4 weeks seems impractically soon.

 

[QSD]

As long as everyone is within the 4-6 month sweet spot window, I think there is more evidence to suggest that it would that it wouldn't. That is the last element to vaccine effectiveness that the COVID19 vaccines still lack - high community uptake. One of the reasons the older vaccines work so well is because so many people got them in the past and continue to get them in the present. This makes it very hard for any of those old diseases to grab a foothold in the community to spread. 100% vaccination against COVID19 would certainly make a huge dent in the numbers as it would cut the amount of circulating virus down and eliminate many opportunities for transmission to occur.

It certainly would help, but it's hardly certain something like omikron would not have emerged, although it would have probably been less likely due to fewer transmissions.

That being said, it seems obvious that even in the most favorable scenario, 100% vaxx could never have happend with the general policy being what it is. One of the big problems here is to my eyes that people were offered a choice to get vaccinated or not, only to be told later, in increasingly indignant tones, that there really is only one right choice, which is to get vaccinated. It seems a bizarre PR miscalculation to have acted in this way. It would have been far more effective to mandate the vaccines from the start. Trying to retroactively take away a choice you offered someone (hey do you want chocolate mousse or strawberry pie for dessert? chocolate mousse? Oh actually I wanted that so I'm still giving you strawberry pie) is asinine and just terrible from a PR perspective.

 

[poppabk]

Even if you have a 100 uptake , it's reduced to about 70% - 80 %because of vaccines wearing off , basically herd immunity cannot be reached since delta .

I know there is no true definition of herd immunity - but for example whooping cough vaccine is on par with the covid vaccines and the vulnerable population is not vaccinated but they are protected by the 'herd' being vaccinated even if the vaccine isn't even close to 100% effective.

 

[FunkMiller]

250 pages, a sad 'jubilee' for this topic. Sometimes it feels like this thread is hangs together from unwarranted snark. I like a joke as much as the next guy, but how about we try to leave our ego's at the door because literally nobody has all the answers.

I think the problem is that quite a few posters on here refuse to acknowledge a lot of facts surrounding both covid and the vaccine. Yes, we do not know everything, but there is a great deal at this point we do know.

Snark generally comes along when people refuse to accept these facts, and focus in on the things that are unknowns to try to back up their position. It's hard not to get snarky with people who conduct their arguments in that manner.

I don't think egos really come into play. I do not claim to be any kind of expert of epidemiology… but I do listen to those that are.

If ego exists anywhere, it's with those who think they know better than those epidemiologists, because of something they've read on social media.

 

[sinnergy]

If the worthless BJ still has some balls he will follow the Netherlands and go full lock down

UK scientists: bring in curbs now or face up to 2m daily Covid infections as Omicron spreads

Deaths could hit 6,000 a day and delaying restrictions until New Year will cut effectiveness, say Sage experts

www.theguardian.com

I hope they will replace this hot air talking clown, what a joke , with his freedom day (making it a party ) and no more lockdowns He became an idiot for me when he promised those two things .

 

[Schattenjäger]

Good article … basically still too early to tell but speaks about UK study

How Mild Is Omicron, Really?

The early data is conflicting. But there are encouraging signs.

nymag.com

 

[Rentahamster]

It's too bad there aren't enough monoclonal antibodies treatments to go around. It would be nice if more people took the route that lets their own body generate its own antibodies by exposure to the vaccine.

Until then, unvaccinated people are prioritized for these kinds of treatments because they are at higher risk of severe outcomes. Is that fair?

I-Team: 93-Year-Old Veteran Denied Treatment For COVID-19 As State Prioritizes Unvaccinated

According to state-issued guidelines, providers are advised to prioritize the unvaccinated and the immunocompromised.

boston.cbslocal.com

A woman who lives north of Boston and did not want to be identified said her father, a vaccinated, 93-year-old veteran struggling with COVID, was told he could not get the potentially life-saving treatment. "I got a call from his doctor saying he had been denied for monoclonal antibodies and they were going to prioritize the unvaccinated. I was heartbroken," she said.

State Department of Public Health:

• The Department of Public Health (DPH) receives a bi-weekly allocation of monoclonal antibodies (mAb) from the federal government and coordinates
distribution through a request process to approximately 30 sites statewide.
• DPH fills requests from health care providers weekly.
• Additional information about mAb allocation to health care providers, including data-reporting requirements, is outlined in the latest DPH guidance.
• Since November 3, monoclonal antibody infusions in Massachusetts have increased by 58%, with 993 infusions reported the week of 11/28-12/4.
• DPH has contracted with emergency management company Gothams to facilitate the opening of three mobile sites in Holyoke, Everett and Fall River for
monoclonal antibody therapy for high-risk patients who have been exposed to or have COVID-19.
• Gothams is continuing to add capacity and last week they increased the number of appointments at all three mobile clinics.
• Any provider may refer a high-risk patient to Gothams for monoclonal antibody therapy.
• Patients with COVID-19 are referred for mAb treatment by their health care providers when they are considered to be at high risk for progression
to severe disease.
• Treatment requires a medical order and the decision for mAb referrals and treatment are made by the patient's health care provider.

The rationing based on vaccination status is an emotional issue, yet it is an ancillary issue, in my estimation. These issues pop up due to our lack of proper science education as well as a terribly inefficient healthcare system that prioritizes profit over health.

 

[SJRB]

The Netherlands is going into hard lock down until the 14th of January, only essential shops open , work from home , it's March 2020.

how is math here on GAF???

Yup. Fucking unreal.

 

[Halo is Back]

When does this shit of masking up, lockdowns, and going back online ever end? My care level is steadily declining.

 

[funkygunther]

When does this shit of masking up, lockdowns, and going back online ever end? My care level is steadily declining.

probably until winters and variants resemble the summer we've just had, then different countries will decide what level of deaths vs normality look like

 

[DragoonKain]

It's too bad there aren't enough monoclonal antibodies treatments to go around. It would be nice if more people took the route that lets their own body generate its own antibodies by exposure to the vaccine.

Until then, unvaccinated people are prioritized for these kinds of treatments because they are at higher risk of severe outcomes. Is that fair?

I-Team: 93-Year-Old Veteran Denied Treatment For COVID-19 As State Prioritizes Unvaccinated

According to state-issued guidelines, providers are advised to prioritize the unvaccinated and the immunocompromised.

boston.cbslocal.com

The rationing based on vaccination status is an emotional issue, yet it is an ancillary issue, in my estimation. These issues pop up due to our lack of proper science education as well as a terribly inefficient healthcare system that prioritizes profit over health.

I think the sickest should be prioritized, and all things equal, if you're young and super sick you should be prioritized over someone who's old and super sick. If there has to be a choice. I don't think vaccination status should factor in, other than the indirect reality of unvaccinated typically having more severe symptoms, but they should be taken because they're really sick, not because they're unvaccinated.

 

[Halo is Back]

probably until winters and variants resemble the summer we've just had, then different countries will decide what level of deaths vs normality look like

Yea, but the virus keeps mutating at a faster rate, so we are stuck in a loop of reactionary measures.

 

[DragoonKain]

I forget if it was the Jamie Metzl podcast or Nick Christakis one, but they were talking about if it did come from a lab, how it could've occurred. I always wondered that myself. It's largely an airborne virus, so how would that infect a scientist in a lab. They covered some ways it could happen, but they brought up something I didn't know about. That test animals in the Wuhan lab have been smuggled out by lab workers to make an extra buck to sell to the wet markets and then the wet markets serve them as food.

So imagine infected animals with test viruses somehow winding up on someone's plate. Fucking disgusting.

 

[12Goblins]

I forget if it was the Jamie Metzl podcast or Nick Christakis one, but they were talking about if it did come from a lab, how it could've occurred. I always wondered that myself. It's largely an airborne virus, so how would that infect a scientist in a lab. They covered some ways it could happen, but they brought up something I didn't know about. That test animals in the Wuhan lab have been smuggled out by lab workers to make an extra buck to sell to the wet markets and then the wet markets serve them as food.

So imagine infected animals with test viruses somehow winding up on someone's plate. Fucking disgusting.

lol source?

either way the virus is not transmitted when it lands on someones plate

 

[DragoonKain]

lol source?

either way the virus is not transmitted when it lands on someones plate

It was in one of the podcasts, one of them brought it up, forget which one.

 

[QSD]

I think the problem is that quite a few posters on here refuse to acknowledge a lot of facts surrounding both covid and the vaccine. Yes, we do not know everything, but there is a great deal at this point we do know.

Snark generally comes along when people refuse to accept these facts, and focus in on the things that are unknowns to try to back up their position. It's hard not to get snarky with people who conduct their arguments in that manner.

I don't think egos really come into play. I do not claim to be any kind of expert of epidemiology… but I do listen to those that are.

We've had this discussion before so I'm tempted just to skip it. Although there have definitely been a fair share of trolls in this thread, it's certainly not that hard not be snarky. If you don't understand how ego comes into play when telling people off in a way that states/implies they're stupid (and by secondary implication, that you are not) , I don't really know what to tell you.

If ego exists anywhere, it's with those who think they know better than those epidemiologists, because of something they've read on social media.

Here in the Netherlands, as you've probably gathered from the other Dutch posters, it's been last-minute announced lockdown measures for the last month or two. Today they announced all non-essential (i.e. non supermarket non pharmacy) stores, gyms, cinema's etc etc will be closed till 14 january as per tomorrow. This panicky, last-minute reactive policy making is done with the best/most prominent epidemiologists advising the government. It just does not give the impression that they really know or understand what they are doing or dealing with.

 

[12Goblins]

It was in one of the podcasts, one of them brought it up, forget which one.

it wasn't metzl, because it's "fake news"

as in, it could be true, but it's completely unsubstantiated; therefore misinformation until proven otherwise

 

[DragoonKain]

it wasn't metzl, because it's "fake news"

as in, it could be true, but it's completely unsubstantiated; therefore misinformation until proven otherwise

Don't think they declared it as fact that it's how the virus spread. But I do believe they did say that animals have been smuggled out of the virology lab as if it was known.

 

[BadBurger]

The most affected regions are the ones with the highest vaccination rate.

That's because the most affected regions are the most densely populated and traveled.

Each wave has been the same, and this one should be as well. For example in the US the first places to spike in cases will be dense urban centers. NYC, New Jersey, the densest cities and regions of California, Florida, Texas, Virginia, et al. A few weeks past that it will hit the rural areas and lighter populated cities, both of which have lower vaccination rates, and we'll see ICU admissions and deaths spike there. Only this time around, there is some hope that the deaths will remain low with this variant.

 

[caffeware]

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

That's because the most affected regions are the most densely populated and traveled.

Italy, Spain and Portugal are just as populated as northern european counterparts. Aside South Africa other countries on African continent has long stopped being affected by COVID (nobody cares and nothing is reported) Basically Middle East, Asia and even Eastern Europe are not involved in any new COVID wave.

It leaves the set of countries affected by COVID - Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, UK, France and also USA and partially Canada + South Africa (where the omicron did not cause much issues despite having what % of vaccinated? 30%?

Meanwhile virus evolves just like it was expected into more contagious but less deadly form. It is gonna be contagious - we will get a lot of reports about how many cases we have there but it is gonna be a useless metric without death cases (like in SA).

 

[funkygunther]

Italy, Spain and Portugal are just as populated as northern european counterparts. Aside South Africa other countries on African continue has long stopped being affected by COVID, Iran also left COVID waves and bunch of other countries. Middle East, Asia and even Eastern Europe are basically not involved in any COVID wave. The only ones consistently involved in these waves are the ones with the highest vaccination rates (also west and usa)

have you looked at Italy, Portugal and Spain cases recently? Portugal has one of the highest vaccination rates in Europe

conversely check out Israel where 45% has a booster shot

 

[Chaplain]

Is there a libertarian case for vaccine mandates?

George Mason University Law Professor Ilya Somin supports vaccine mandates in certain cases because he believes they're a relatively "small infringement on freedom" and are preferable to harm reduction strategies like mask mandates and lockdowns, which he sees as posing a greater threat to our liberties.

Angela McArdle, the chair of the Libertarian Party of Los Angeles County, says she'll "actively work to destroy any institution that tries to enforce a vaccine passport," and is currently launching legal challenges to overturn vaccine mandates in California and New York.

On September 8, Somin and McArdle went head-to-head at the Soho Forum in New York City. Somin took the affirmative, and McArdle the negative, on the resolution: While vaccine mandates are an infringement on freedom, some are justified due to their big payoff in lives saved. The debate was moderated by Soho Forum Director Gene Epstein.

Edited

 

[Cyberpunkd]

France is changing the sanitary pass to vaccine pass, you cannot get tests anymore in order to do it. Minister of Health has said it's a hidden obligation to vaccinate but much more useful than imposing a mandate and then catching people on the streets. I agree with him.

 

[Dr.Guru of Peru]

I think the sickest should be prioritized, and all things equal, if you're young and super sick you should be prioritized over someone who's old and super sick. If there has to be a choice. I don't think vaccination status should factor in, other than the indirect reality of unvaccinated typically having more severe symptoms, but they should be taken because they're really sick, not because they're unvaccinated.

Can't do that with monoclonal antibodies because they have to be given before someone really gets sick. If someone is severely sick, its already too late.

 

[FunkMiller]

We've had this discussion before so I'm tempted just to skip it. Although there have definitely been a fair share of trolls in this thread, it's certainly not that hard not be snarky. If you don't understand how ego comes into play when telling people off in a way that states/implies they're stupid (and by secondary implication, that you are not) , I don't really know what to tell you.

Here in the Netherlands, as you've probably gathered from the other Dutch posters, it's been last-minute announced lockdown measures for the last month or two. Today they announced all non-essential (i.e. non supermarket non pharmacy) stores, gyms, cinema's etc etc will be closed till 14 january as per tomorrow. This panicky, last-minute reactive policy making is done with the best/most prominent epidemiologists advising the government. It just does not give the impression that they really know or understand what they are doing or dealing with.

Well, I'll stand by the position that it's a little hard not to be snarky with someone who's quoting stuff they've seen on social media as an argument against scientific evidence.

…and as for the Netherlands, if cases, hospitalisations and deaths rise, will you concede the swift Lockdown was a good idea? Because if they all do even with social contact limited, think what they would do without it…

 

[Kev Kev]

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

Two lancet studies worth a read.

The epidemiological relevance of the COVID-19-vaccinated population is increasing

High COVID-19 vaccination rates were expected to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in populations by reducing the number of possible sources for transmission and thereby to reduce the burden of COVID-19 disease. Recent data, however, indicate that the epidemiological relevance of COVID-19...

www.thelancet.com

Community transmission and viral load kinetics of the SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in the UK: a prospective, longitudinal, cohort study

Vaccination reduces the risk of delta variant infection and accelerates viral clearance. Nonetheless, fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully...

www.thelancet.com

 

[sinnergy]

Two lancet studies worth a read.

The epidemiological relevance of the COVID-19-vaccinated population is increasing

High COVID-19 vaccination rates were expected to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in populations by reducing the number of possible sources for transmission and thereby to reduce the burden of COVID-19 disease. Recent data, however, indicate that the epidemiological relevance of COVID-19...

www.thelancet.com

Community transmission and viral load kinetics of the SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in the UK: a prospective, longitudinal, cohort study

Vaccination reduces the risk of delta variant infection and accelerates viral clearance. Nonetheless, fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully...

www.thelancet.com

The CDC of the Netherlands told us yesterday that boosters are for Delta, and they are happy that Pfizer has adjusted vaccines in spring , now think about this fact for a while . It means they do jack shit for Cron. See you in lockdown rest of Europe and the USA, UK first.

this is also in my opinion why the Dutch government freaked out, it makes a lot of sense .

just to add , the Dutch released the models (it's modeled by the guy who invented the SARS and MERS models , his models are used worldwide),with some measures on, no full lockdown , our ic capacity would be overrun between 2,5 - 4,5 times , even with this lock down now , it can be almost double in best case only a 0,25 , his models always turned out correctly, but Cron is totally mild guys.

so you guys can anticipate what's to come .
It's probably a global plan that's being rolled out , but this time we are the first.

 

[T8SC]

Me after reading 3 days worth of updates in here.

 

[sinnergy]

Covid news: UK reports 82,886 new cases; Omicron dominant in Ireland – as it happened

Latest UK daily cases show a 72% jump on the 48,071 new infections recorded last Sunday; Irish officials say 52% of cases estimated to be new variant

www.theguardian.com

See my above post .. Israel most vaccinated country . Others will state it helps otherwise none will take boosters and delta can go rampant. It's all pr.

 

[prinz_valium]

Covid news: UK reports 82,886 new cases; Omicron dominant in Ireland – as it happened

Latest UK daily cases show a 72% jump on the 48,071 new infections recorded last Sunday; Irish officials say 52% of cases estimated to be new variant

www.theguardian.com

See my above post .. Israel most vaccinated country . Others will state it helps otherwise none will take boosters and delta can go rampant. It's all pr.

Isreal isn't the most vaccinated country. Not even the most boosted one.

UAE, Portugal and Chile are leading

 

[sinnergy]

Isreal isn't the most vaccinated country. Not even the most boosted one.

UAE, Portugal and Chile are leading

Everything will be fine in that case .

 

[prinz_valium]

The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.
- Bertrand Russell.

Blindly opposing vaccinations isn't smart, but critical assessment of current covid policies is definitely warranted. The new lockdowns here in the Netherlands will cause massive problems for many private businesses. It's an open question whether 100% vaccine uptake could have stopped this.

It's not. It's empirically proven it wouldn't.
Just have a look at those countries with >95% vaccination rates among adults.

 

[Chaplain]

 

[chromhound]

Cases Florida

1,976 - 12/12
3,067 - 12/13
4,127 - 12/14
6,846 - 12/15
8,785 - 12/16

Cases New York

23,295 - 12/12
8,993 - 12/13
8,266 - 12/14
12,944 - 12/15
18,276 - 12/16

Interesting. Just lock everyone in their house for 3 month lol

 

[Jaysen]

State senator dies a month after telling a local radio station he was sick with Covid-19 while in El Salvador | CNN Politics

A Washington state senator has died a month after confirming with a local radio station he was in El Salvador and sick with Covid-19.

www.cnn.com

Oh no! Calls for Inslee's resignation over stringent Covid vaccine mandates, then leaves the country, gets Covid, desperately tries to come home to get treatment, makes it back, dies in Florida. The scripts write themselves.