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[Airola]

Booster at least 80% effective against severe Omicron

Preliminary estimates by researchers suggest the top-up shot should help keep many people out of hospital.

www.bbc.com

"Preliminary estimates by reseachers" kinda has the vibes that "experts say", "former high ranking official says", "people close to [insert someone here] say" and early election poll studies these days have.

 

[Punished Miku]

'This is a warning to all of you: We are in trouble,' Kansas hospital leader says as COVID surges (msn.com)

The messaging from Kansas hospitals is pretty dire. Basically just says that it's up to the community to decide what they want to do this winter; change a couple of your decisions or watch the consequences. That's the sound of health care burnout as they continue to move to other less stressful jobs.

 

[ManaByte]

'This is a warning to all of you: We are in trouble,' Kansas hospital leader says as COVID surges (msn.com)

The messaging from Kansas hospitals is pretty dire. Basically just says that it's up to the community to decide what they want to do this winter; change a couple of your decisions or watch the consequences. That's the sound of health care burnout as they continue to move to other less stressful jobs.

Maybe people should stop listening to bullshitters on Facebook and get a fucking shot.

 

[DragoonKain]

Every fall/winter there seems to be a spike. There has to be more to it than “when the weather gets cold, the masks come off.” That doesn’t even make any sense to me. You’d figure there would be less mask wearing in the summer, because you sweat more and it makes it far more uncomfortable. I’ve always been far less bothered by masks in the winter than in the summer.

I think it more has to do with since it’s cold, there’s less outdoor activity, people migrate inside more, where COVID spreads more. And I also believe and this is just my opinion, that most COVID spreads are within families and personal gatherings than stuff like stores, restaurants, ball games, etc. Because you’re far less likely to mask around family and friends even indoors, and you spend more time together.

 

[ManaByte]

 

[DragoonKain]

Is there any evidence the spikes are due to the omicron variant? A lot of people have been blaming that, but I haven’t seen any data yet that shows which variant the majority of these new spikes are caused by.

Seems too early for the omicron to be that prevalent.

 

[funkygunther]

"Preliminary estimates by reseachers" kinda has the vibes that "experts say", "former high ranking official says", "people close to [insert someone here] say" and early election poll studies these days have.

except the model they used is linked right there should you want more detail

 

[Kilau]

Well it was fun being almost back to normal again for a few weeks.

 

[Punished Miku]

Every fall/winter there seems to be a spike. There has to be more to it than “when the weather gets cold, the masks come off.” That doesn’t even make any sense to me. You’d figure there would be less mask wearing in the summer, because you sweat more and it makes it far more uncomfortable. I’ve always been far less bothered by masks in the winter than in the summer.

I think it more has to do with since it’s cold, there’s less outdoor activity, people migrate inside more, where COVID spreads more. And I also believe and this is just my opinion, that most COVID spreads are within families and personal gatherings than stuff like stores, restaurants, ball games, etc. Because you’re far less likely to mask around family and friends even indoors, and you spend more time together.

It's a weird sentence. I think he meant that everyone is dropping their masks at the worst possible time (winter).

I heard a virologist try and explain the seasonality, and one theory is that when the weather is much more humid (summer) then droplets people spread literally have higher water content so they fall out of the air faster lol. Pretty crazy. But yeah, COVID doesn't have traditional seasonality as far as I'm aware. Haven't been keeping up with all the details.

 

[Airola]

except the model they used is linked right there should you want more detail

It's just hard to believe which information is correct and which isn't, and which has gone through the filter of a journalist.

I've mentioned it earlier but last spring we had news that THL (Finnish institute for health and welfare), who are the ones responsible for studying covid and instructing what should be done about it in Finland, had found out that we will have 11,000 daily infections by summer. That graph and information was used to postpone our municipal elections. Turned out that it was just some test calculation that they say was never supposed to mean anything and the numbers used had no relevance to any real numbers. But for a little while everyone took it seriously. We even had some ridiculous graph to look at. When the truth about it eventually came out, our government still decided to postpone the elections.

I really hope it was an honest mistake, but it surely made many people doubt their trust in studies, news and our government. The ruling parties were losing their momentum and the opposition was gaining support, so it's very possible that this was an opportunistic tactical move by the current leaders (or if we entertain some deep end conspiracy theories, the initial test calculation and its leak into media was an intentional calculated move).

 

[Liljagare]

New study, Omikron does not have a milder infection phase, more likely to reinfect:

"The risk of reinfection with the Omicron coronavirus variant is more than five times higher and it has shown no sign of being milder than Delta"

Omicron more likely to reinfect than Delta, no milder -study

The risk of reinfection with the Omicron coronavirus variant is more than five times higher and it has shown no sign of being milder than Delta, a study showed, as cases soar across Europe and threaten year-end festivities.

www.reuters.com

I personally though, am getting really mentally tired of restrictions, I think those will affect us too, for a long time to come, and, it's like a dual hit combo. Mental illness is on the rise globally, at one point, restrictions will outstrip the effects.

I am so glad that I can just put up a sign that says "Gone fishing!", and enjoy life, but millions live in big cities, and can't. I think a huge part of this pandemic will be people going suicidal, mentally ill, and unable to perform. :\ Wonder where the peak meet in numbers will be.

I hope everyone is finding new joys in life as shutdowns happen, find a new favourite food, drink, go out and fish, enjoy nature, mentally excercise everyday, because this pandemic is far from over, and we will keep seeing new shutdowns, so, get used to it.

 

[DragoonKain]

No evidence it's milder =/= evidence it isn't milder.

 

[ManaByte]

we will keep seeing new shutdowns, so, get used to it.

 

[Chaplain]

Edited

 

[ntropy]

New study, Omikron does not have a milder infection phase, more likely to reinfect:

"The risk of reinfection with the Omicron coronavirus variant is more than five times higher and it has shown no sign of being milder than Delta"

Omicron more likely to reinfect than Delta, no milder -study

The risk of reinfection with the Omicron coronavirus variant is more than five times higher and it has shown no sign of being milder than Delta, a study showed, as cases soar across Europe and threaten year-end festivities.

www.reuters.com

did you not read the entire article?

 

[BadBurger]

At the start of December Omicron accounted for 1% to 2% of cases across Europe. It's now over 70% of all cases in London. Omicron cases have been doubling every other day in Denmark and the UK. This will happen in the US, as well, as it has made landfall.

Suppose we have two variants, one being twice as transmissible as the other (keep in mind Omicron is three to five times as transmissible as Delta in the UK currently). Now suppose it takes about five days between a person being infected and them infecting others (a reasonable timeline given observations since the start of the pandemic). After 30 days the more transmissible variant would be causing 2⁶ (or 64) times as many new cases as the less transmissible one. So if we're banking on Omicron being more mild than Delta to prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed again (and or causing significant death and severe symptoms in a sizeable portion of a population), it better be much, much more mild. (Edit: I want to elaborate here, even if it is much more mild, if it is infecting over 64 times as many people, the chances of severe cases will increase just given the sheer volume of infected).

My fingers are crossed. Things are looking good in Europe for the most part. However, just another word of caution that we won't know what to expect here in the United States, where we have a large population of anti-vaxxers and those politicizing vaccines and public health measures (and therefore not participating), for another week or two.

 

[Chaplain]

 

[12Goblins]

I have a super high tolerance for all the dumb shit JR brings on his podcast, but this was a painful new low for me.

 

[12Goblins]

if it says teaser for more to come that's a spoiler for: garbage nothingburger

attacking and taking down premises for an argument is not "coordinating a propaganda campaign". that guy is projecting

 

[12Goblins]

'This is a warning to all of you: We are in trouble,' Kansas hospital leader says as COVID surges (msn.com)

The messaging from Kansas hospitals is pretty dire. Basically just says that it's up to the community to decide what they want to do this winter; change a & to the end of the day and then go to the store of your decisions or watch the consequences. That's the sound of health care burnout as they continue to move to other less stressful jobs.

I'm in KC and yeah my hospital is filled with COVID again. I'm seeing a lot of people who got it in 2020 and thought they didn't need the vaccine. not seeing a lot of deathly ill cases so far though

 

[Nobody_Important]

if it says teaser for more to come that's a spoiler for: garbage nothingburger

attacking and taking down premises for an argument is not "coordinating a propaganda campaign". that guy is projecting

Yeah but my aunt's friend's hairdressers dog groomers brother on Facebook said this is like totally for real though!

 

[Schattenjäger]

New study, Omikron does not have a milder infection phase, more likely to reinfect:

"The risk of reinfection with the Omicron coronavirus variant is more than five times higher and it has shown no sign of being milder than Delta"

Omicron more likely to reinfect than Delta, no milder -study

The risk of reinfection with the Omicron coronavirus variant is more than five times higher and it has shown no sign of being milder than Delta, a study showed, as cases soar across Europe and threaten year-end festivities.

www.reuters.com

I personally though, am getting really mentally tired of restrictions, I think those will affect us too, for a long time to come, and, it's like a dual hit combo. Mental illness is on the rise globally, at one point, restrictions will outstrip the effects.

I am so glad that I can just put up a sign that says "Gone fishing!", and enjoy life, but millions live in big cities, and can't. I think a huge part of this pandemic will be people going suicidal, mentally ill, and unable to perform. :\ Wonder where the peak meet in numbers will be.

I hope everyone is finding new joys in life as shutdowns happen, find a new favourite food, drink, go out and fish, enjoy nature, mentally excercise everyday, because this pandemic is far from over, and we will keep seeing new shutdowns, so, get used to it.

This is the same study NobodyImportant posted .. still too early to tell in UK if it’s milder

 

[Schattenjäger]

Is there any evidence the spikes are due to the omicron variant? A lot of people have been blaming that, but I haven’t seen any data yet that shows which variant the majority of these new spikes are caused by.

Seems too early for the omicron to be that prevalent.

Hard to tell since US genome mapping is shit
NYC has high vaccination rate and new cases are ramping up .. so it’s logical that it’s either Omicron or maybe people whose vaccination efficacy has worn off

 

[Nobody_Important]

This is the same study NobodyImportant posted .. still too early to tell in UK if it’s milder

"in UK"

as if Omicron there will just be a completely different animal than everywhere else lol

 

[prinz_valium]

I just want to say fuck all assholes spreading anti-vax lies on social media.

So how is your "the pandemic is over, because there are just no more people to infect" going?

 

[prinz_valium]

Yeah most of us would like to get the pandemic over with, not stick out head in the sand for a thousand years!

If that was your goal, you did everything wrong.
Let everyone get infected with the first dominant variant and some 10m people die would've been most likely a more effective solution than trying to restrict the spread when it doesn't work and getting 70% of the population vaccinated against a novel virus.
It makes the inevitable just take longer.

I hope you're ready for at least 3 more years.

 

[prinz_valium]

Yes, yes. I say all diseases have variants, and you argue against that position by saying polio has three variants.

It’s definitely my stuff that’s hard to read. It must be because you clearly haven’t or can’t.

Also… why are you even bringing up polio or measles in a discussion about respiratory disease? You want to chuck beri beri and dengue fever in while you’re at it?

See you post that stuff, but still don't understand it. That's what I'm talking about.

Polio and hep have 3 variants that don't mutate and are dominant / spread at the same time. They have a vaccine that works against those non mutating variants.


Covid had 5 different major variants in 2 years and the dominant strain is changing and preventing the spread od the others all while the vaccines don't work against the new mutations.

Yes covid is a respiratory disease and virus that has more in common with the flu and common cold than measles, polio or hep. Hence the mutations and the vaccines not being good

That's the point. Not to hard to understand, right

 

[Schattenjäger]

"in UK"

as if Omicron there will just be a completely different animal than everywhere else lol

In UK in the context of its too early to tell if milder

 

[Nobody_Important]

Covid had 5 different major variants in 2 years and the dominant strain is changing and preventing the spread od the others all while the vaccines don't work against the new mutations.

The vaccines literally do not work against the variants of covid-19? Man that is some serious news that I somehow missed I guess. Can you please link me to the various scientific studies that have researched and proven that the vaccines just do not work on the various new covid-19 variants?


Please and thank you. I'll go ahead and wait while you gather the necessary links

 

[ntropy]

HKUMed finds Omicron SARS-CoV-2 can infect faster and better than Delta in human bronchus but with less severe infection in lung

HKUMed provides the first information on how the novel Variant of Concern of SARS-CoV-2, the Omicron SARS-CoV-2, infect human respiratory tract.

www.med.hku.hk

 

[sinnergy]

except the model they used is linked right there should you want more detail

We have the Dutch modeler, that first modeled SARS and MERS, his models re used worldwide at institutes , that’s what we used the past 2 years , seeing that we have a press conference tonight and a full lock down following, it looks like bad news , The Netherlands also has a packed population, you can compare our country as London..

if his models show its gonna be a shitshow, than that’s gonna be the case .

 

[funkygunther]

The Netherlands also has a packed population, you can compare our country as London..

No, you can't. Go look up population densities.

 

[sinnergy]

No, you can't. Go look up population densities.

I stand correct we actually have double the population of London so we have hotspots all around our little country.. terrible .

shits about to hit the fan !

Amsterdam is such a hotspot here ..
Also Limburg .

 

[funkygunther]

If that was your goal, you did everything wrong.
Let everyone get infected with the first dominant variant and some 10m people die would've been most likely a more effective solution than trying to restrict the spread when it doesn't work and getting 70% of the population vaccinated against a novel virus.
It makes the inevitable just take longer.

I hope you're ready for at least 3 more years.

Letting the virus do its thing through society is the equivalent of amputating a limb because of an infection. Much more efficient, but the aftermath looks very different. There is no way to be confident that the inevitable is the same in either your scenario or whatever we're actually doing now.

And on the 10m deaths, we're at 5m now with all the restrictions and vaccines. Nothing we know about CFR now, extrapolated to the idea that everyone will get it unvaccinated, points to 10m so I'm curious where you're getting that number.

 

[funkygunther]

I stand correct we actually have double the population of London so we have hotspots all around our little country.. terrible .

shits about to hit the fan ! London bridge is falling down!

When you say "packed" you don't mean density then, you just mean amount of people. Cases are indeed rising in London, and illness is effecting NHS staff so at present it's not looking good.

 

[sinnergy]

Freedom day seems to be a very bad decision, as I indicated months ago, should have kept the basics, work from home , social distance, wear masks . The Netherlands did the same and now our numbers are sky high with delta , 5 times the amount we could handle , for 2 months almost ,such smart move by smart people in the government.. and now comes Cron, even a toddler would have made better decisions.

 

[SJRB]

The Netherlands once again caught with their pants down, completely unprepared for Omicron and having started way, WAYYYYYYY too late with the booster campaign will probably enforce a total lockdown later today.

Nice job.

 

[sinnergy]

The Netherlands once again caught with their pants down, completely unprepared for Omicron and having started way, WAYYYYYYY too late with the booster campaign will probably enforce a total lockdown later today.

Nice job.

If normal folk like you and us see this coming months ago .. you would imagine e high paid and high educated government people would also ..

Like I said , to much in the papers and not connected to the real world .

 

[SJRB]

If normal folk like you and us see this coming months ago .. you would imagine e high paid and high educated government people would also ..

Like I said , to much in the papers and not connected to the real world .

Agreed, too many "managers".

Unfortunately we have people in vital positions who absolutely lack the skills or talents required for managing a crisis like this. And who can blame them, this situation is unprecedented. The problem is that they refuse, simply refuse to learn from past mistakes and keep missing the mark every step of the way.

They're fumbling and bumbling as if it was March 2020, with zero indication that they have a plan, a vision. We are consistently the worst - sky high infection cases, out vaccination campaign started as one of the last countries in the EU and we were consistently last all through Summer.
Then the booster campaign where every country with half a brain understood that speed is vital and started in September. The Netherlands? Nah, let's wait it out and see what happens, while Delta cases skyrocketed and now Omikron is about to fuck us in the ass.

The minister of Health was a primary school teacher before he took on this job, for fuck's sake. Get these people outta here.

 

[FunkMiller]

See you post that stuff, but still don't understand it. That's what I'm talking about.

Polio and hep have 3 variants that don't mutate and are dominant / spread at the same time. They have a vaccine that works against those non mutating variants.


Covid had 5 different major variants in 2 years and the dominant strain is changing and preventing the spread od the others all while the vaccines don't work against the new mutations.

Yes covid is a respiratory disease and virus that has more in common with the flu and common cold than measles, polio or hep. Hence the mutations and the vaccines not being good

That's the point. Not to hard to understand, right

Dude. Just stop. Polio has different variants that require multiple vaccinations to suppress. And again... it’s not even a valid comparison to covid, so I don’t know why you keep bringing it up.

You’re clinging on to this idea that covid is somehow different to other diseases… that it’s somehow strange or weird that covid mutates and requires multiple vaccinations.

You’re trying to spin this falsehood that the vaccines aren’t effective because new variants pop up that they can’t handle. But the truth is that diseases change, requiring new vaccine versions. Some more, some less. Just accept it. And get vaccinated. And prepare for potential regular vaccinations going forward.

The vaccines have already saved millions of people across the world, but different versions are necessary to tackle different variants. Do you understand this? Because I’m not sure you do from what you’re saying.

Why do you think the flu vaccine is different every year? Because influenza changes. Just like covid. Just like other sars type viruses. Requiring new vaccine versions.

This isn’t a politically motivated effort to suppress your freedoms. It‘s a typical response to a public health emergency.

 

[FireFly]

If that was your goal, you did everything wrong.
Let everyone get infected with the first dominant variant and some 10m people die would've been most likely a more effective solution than trying to restrict the spread when it doesn't work and getting 70% of the population vaccinated against a novel virus.
It makes the inevitable just take longer.

I hope you're ready for at least 3 more years.

Behavioural change would have happened even without any government intervention since people will change their behaviour to try to stop catching the virus. So we may have had the same effect of virus supression at higher levels of average deaths. And then there's the point that most people don't want their friends and family members to die, and in a democratic society the government will have to respect the will of the people if it is to stay in power.

 

[prinz_valium]

Behavioural change would have happened even without any government intervention since people will change their behaviour to try to stop catching the virus. So we may have had the same effect of virus supression at higher levels of average deaths. And then there's the point that most people don't want their friends and family members to die, and in a democratic society the government will have to respect the will of the people if it is to stay in power.

Thanks for pointing out the Number 1 argument of people against government mandated covid measures.

I thought most care about the environment. And lot of dead people not consuming anything is the most effective way of reducing CO2 emissions.

Anyways the next time of war will do that, so everything is fine

 

[sinnergy]

Behavioural change would have happened even without any government intervention since people will change their behaviour to try to stop catching the virus. So we may have had the same effect of virus supression at higher levels of average deaths. And then there's the point that most people don't want their friends and family members to die, and in a democratic society the government will have to respect the will of the people if it is to stay in power.

People would have been doing what they always did .. with millions dead. People don’t like change . Sadly this is what 2 years showed us. Need to be handled as little kids .

 

[QSD]

The Netherlands once again caught with their pants down, completely unprepared for Omicron and having started way, WAYYYYYYY too late with the booster campaign will probably enforce a total lockdown later today.

Nice job.

I guess we just never had any pants to begin with, LOL.

It's sure looks like major lockdown time again here. Boosters waaay late, I'm getting one wednesday but who know if I'll be able to dodge Omikron till then. The AstraZeneca vaccine I got in april/may is basically ineffective against it I gather.

 

[FireFly]

Thanks for pointing out the Number 1 argument of people against government mandated covid measures.

I thought most care about the environment. And lot of dead people not consuming anything is the most effective way of reducing CO2 emissions.

Anyways the next time of war will do that, so everything is fine

It sounds then like you accept the argument, and therefore the implication that we can't just "get rid" of the virus.

We need to reduce net CO2 emissions to zero, not marginally decrease them by killing off 1% or less of the world's population. So we would all need to collectively commit suicide, which I am sure is preferrable to developing clean technology over the next 30 years or so.

 

[Chaplain]

Regarding the next Twitter post from the Imperial College London: "The work, which is not yet peer-reviewed, is presented in the latest report from the WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling within the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, Imperial College London."







Edited

 

[sinnergy]

The Netherlands is going into hard lock down until the 14th of January, only essential shops open , work from home , it’s March 2020.

how is math here on GAF???

 

[celsowmbr]

The Netherlands is going into hard lock down until the 14th of January, only essential shops open , work from home , it’s March 2020.

how is math here on GAF???

Math is white oppression

 

[sinnergy]

Math is white oppression

That must be it !

 

[betrayal]

Apart from all the tweets and posts, I think it makes sense to look at the numbers and statistics as we currently find them with Omikron.

I think it's fair to say that we will survive.