Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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I know it was/is small money ($70b) to MSFT going by their earnings and market cap at the time they went forward with this deal, and I suspect the few billion in penalty they would have to pay Activision was equally nothing to them too, but as the world economic situation continues to unfold, I do wonder at what market cap drop their bigger shareholders would decide to voice their opinion about that $70b, and maybe suggest they cancel the deal and buy back shares with the billions, if that cash in relative terms presumably becomes more valuable to MSFT- than it was - as their market cap declines.

I always felt from the start that the CMA would want to block this deal, but the longer it is drawn out in an economic downturn the more I think MSFT might just walk away from it,
Microsoft's shareholders are growth oriented people, they want the company gl grow. Its unlikely they will force MS to scrap the deal. To them the risk is worth it.
Sounds like a bad deal to me. For MS, not Sony, unless the ABK deal really was about King all along. Allowing CoD to stay multiplat post-merger is a great thing for the consumer but allowing it on PS+ as well as Game Pass kind of shoots GP in the foot. CoD on Game Pass would be an enormous system seller.
Sony isn't getting this for free, they will need to compensate for the lack of sales on their platform and because majority of COD sales are on PS, Sony will need to fork out hundreds of millions.
 
But Skyrim and deathloop are not really service pushing games.

Where as cod is huge even to a very casual audience.

& That is disappointing that Vib Ribbon never came to fruition, I remember it quite fondly, wonder how it holds up now though.
Yeah, but as you said, they would end up getting a LOT of money so why not?
 
It's a very unlikely thing but imagine a Game Pass tied WoW.
With the way WoW is losing subscribers it kind of makes sense. Plus it would artificially inflate game pass subscriber numbers if battle.net subscribers transformed into game pass subscribers. Microsoft leadership might finally make their bonuses.
 
All of you
Stop It Michael Jordan GIF
 
Sure you are. Starting with 2 billion gamers - which is true if you start adding in mobile, etc. But in the console space, out of around 200M consumers, 30M is over 10% and even bigger percentages within just Xbox hardware.

So yeah it's moving needles and in a handful of years being a growing business of $2B+. Sony clearly gives a shit and cites it in their own court filings.

You've just moved the goalposts to fit your narrative. You like Sony, we get it, and you don't want Gamepass - we get that too. Good news, don't buy it - no one if forcing you cause options do exist.

That's not fair or correct. Topher Topher has an Xbox Series console (X I think) and a PS5. He is a big Game Pass fanboy. I've never seen him troll it or even say anything negative about it. There are a lot of anti-Game Pass trolls on NeoGAF, but Topher is definitely not one of them.
 
That's not fair or correct. Topher Topher has an Xbox Series console (X I think) and a PS5. He is a big Game Pass fanboy. I've never seen him troll it or even say anything negative about it. There are a lot of anti-Game Pass trolls on NeoGAF, but Topher is definitely not one of them.

Fine. I retract that part. Topher Topher - I'm sorry.

Ps. You still moved the goal posts :)
 
That's not fair or correct. Topher Topher has an Xbox Series console (X I think) and a PS5. He is a big Game Pass fanboy. I've never seen him troll it or even say anything negative about it. There are a lot of anti-Game Pass trolls on NeoGAF, but Topher is definitely not one of them.

Topher made the topic telling people how to get free game pass, who the heck would think he's anti game-pass :messenger_tears_of_joy:
 
Interesting, apparently Phil offered Sony COD on Playstation Plus -

Source 1, Kotaku AU (they're better than US Kotaku).
Source 2 - Bloomberg

Some of that frustration might be explained by this new report on Bloomberg, which says that in addition to promising that Call of Duty games would remain on PlayStation for at least the next decade as standalone, retail titles (as well as arriving on the same day as they did on other systems), Microsoft also told Sony that the series could be offered on the subscription service PlayStation Plus.
  • 10 year deal to keep COD on any platform e.g. Sony PS
  • Day One parity with competing platforms for releases
  • PS subs included too in the above points
  • Nintendo and Steam signed off already
Sony looking like cunts out here. This case is a joke.

Can we just move the industry forward and share games on whatever platform? Given the financing is there to develop those releases. I would be far more interested in the FTC/regulators focus on creating policy and laws that enabled the industry rather than block it e.g. fuck Apple and Sony with their walled gardens. Open up like Google/Pixel or Azure/Linux etc. Gaming crosses all of these globalised companies. Regulators would do well to look at the Internet and corporate takeovers of open and free frameworks to reveal the drive to walled gardens. Regulators could use this gaming opportunity for openness and sustainability over any singular entity.
 
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Interesting, apparently Phil offered Sony COD on Playstation Plus -

Source 1, Kotaku AU (they're better than US Kotaku).
Source 2 - Bloomberg


  • 10 year deal to keep COD on any platform e.g. Sony PS
  • Day One parity with competing platforms for releases
  • PS subs included too in the above points
  • Nintendo and Steam signed off already
Sony looking like cunts out here. This case is a joke.

Can we just move the industry forward and share games on whatever platform? Given the financing is there to develop those releases. I would be far more interested in the FTC/regulators creating policy and laws that enabled the industry e.g. fuck Apple and Sony with their walled gardens. Open up like Google/Pixel or Azure/Linux etc.
It should be obvious by now that Sony aren't interested in concessions.
 
It's a very unlikely thing but imagine a Game Pass tied WoW.

If this acquisition does go through then they would probably implement a 5%-10% discount for WoW subscriptions if you already have an existing Game Pass subscription. That would increase Game Pass appeal and potentially encourage Game Pass subscribers to give WoW a shot. That's what I would do anyway.
 
That's not fair or correct. Topher Topher has an Xbox Series console (X I think) and a PS5. He is a big Game Pass fanboy. I've never seen him troll it or even say anything negative about it. There are a lot of anti-Game Pass trolls on NeoGAF, but Topher is definitely not one of them.

Topher Topher was invited to speak at my mom's funeral. It was odd enough that he wore nothing but Toro Inoue t-shirt but he kept interrupting his eulogy with "fuck Phil" and "J Allard did nothing wrong".
 
If this acquisition does go through then they would probably implement a 5%-10% discount for WoW subscriptions if you already have an existing Game Pass subscription. That would increase Game Pass appeal and potentially encourage Game Pass subscribers to give WoW a shot. That's what I would do anyway.

I'd just make it available to all Game Pass subscribers. WoW apparently makes more money from microtransactions these days than it ever has before, so may as well open it up to as many players as possible while not going completely free-to-play.
 
I'd just make it available to all Game Pass subscribers. WoW apparently makes more money from microtransactions these days than it ever has before, so may as well open it up to as many players as possible while not going completely free-to-play.

The issue is leaving money on the table. Businesses just won't do that. Subscriptions like WoW make most of their money via micro-transactions, but the subscription piece is steady money. Additionally, the subscription ensures that EVERYONE is paying, not just those that are willing to fork over cash for micro-transactions. I'm sure we have all been in a situation where we meant to unsubscribe from something but we continued to be billed because it kept slipping our minds. That's free money for Microsoft there. I would be shocked if they rolled WoW subscriptions into Game Pass unless that meant an increase to the monthly cost for Game Pass.
 
I'd just make it available to all Game Pass subscribers. WoW apparently makes more money from microtransactions these days than it ever has before, so may as well open it up to as many players as possible while not going completely free-to-play.

Probably smarter to have a GPU + WOW tier for +$5 or so. It still has 4 million subscribers. Can't imagine they'd walk away from all of that subscription money.
 
  • 10 year deal to keep COD on any platform e.g. Sony PS
  • Day One parity with competing platforms for releases
  • PS subs included too in the above points
  • Nintendo and Steam signed off already
Sony looking like cunts out here. This case is a joke.

You can't be fucking serious

Do you know how short 10 years truly is? Sony has been in gaming for nearly 30 now

Why in the world should Sony be happy with that deal???
 
If the deal fails, we will laugh and enjoy our healthy gaming industry, while it lasts.
Activision wants to sell and there were other bidders, I doubt that it'll end in status quo. It'll just be someone besides Sony and MS that own ABK. Apple? Tencent? Nintendo? luls enjoy the healthy industry 😆
 
Sony isn't getting this for free, they will need to compensate for the lack of sales on their platform and because majority of COD sales are on PS, Sony will need to fork out hundreds of millions.
This, any ms concessions are not equal to any platform getting cod for free (maybe in case of steam it will be different), but Sony will have to pay and to include it in their sub, they would have to pay serious money based on sales and revenue that they're are making from this franchise, I woul say ms would ask for $300-400 mln per release. I am guesstimating that deal that was presented to Sony would generate approx. $10 bn in sales for ms over period of 10 years from playstation consoles.
 
You can't be fucking serious

Do you know how short 10 years truly is? Sony has been in gaming for nearly 30 now

Why in the world should Sony be happy with that deal???

Opposed to no deal for Sony with COD? Then the rest of mobile, PC, streaming, MTX , portables and console markets are left for all other competitors, including MS/Xbox with Sony not? The industry is more than competitive enough for COD to be refused to Sony on the grounds the market is flourishing with competitors and has a longer lifetime than 10 years. A 10-year agreement in corporate dealings of this type is a loooooooong time, far longer than usual contracts of this nature.

Let us not forget COD is/has been on more than a dozen platforms, which will 95% continue under MS in the marketplace even if Sony refuse and Xbox pulled COD entirely -
  • Steam/PC/windows/linux
  • Apple phones / OS X
  • Google phones / Android
  • Gamecube, Wii, Wii U, Switch, Nintendo DS,
  • Xbox 360, One, One S, One X, Series S/X
  • PS2/3/4/5
  • n-cage
  • Amazon Luna streaming
  • Google Stadia /Chromecast streaming
  • nVidia GeForce Now streaming (removed)
  • xCloud / Gamepass streaming
  • Shadow.tech app
Xbox are also still servicing other platforms and Sony with other IP/games. All the PC releases, GP releases, crossplay, cross security, single sign on account, Minecraft on PS/Nintendo etc.

There is room for Netflix gaming to replace Sony, just like Sony replaced Sega (however it came about).

We have not even entered into VR having a number of headsets and competitors, MS have no dog in that game as yet and are well positioned to support COD > VR from this year into the long foreseeable future, as volatile as the VR segment is/going to be.
 
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Activision wants to sell and there were other bidders, I doubt that it'll end in status quo. It'll just be someone besides Sony and MS that own ABK. Apple? Tencent? Nintendo? luls enjoy the healthy industry 😆
I imagine the FTC would look at those others as well. And I'm sure most of the larger suitors would want to keep things third party. Microsoft would be free to put them on gamepass if they want to make a deal I'm sure.
 
ABK isn't selling cause they want to - but because they need to. They're not in a good place so the conclusion if not sold could be splitting things off or cancelling projects/developers. Don't know if bankruptcy is in the cards, but possibly.
ABK are not in a bad place. Where does this keep coming from. If you look at the SEC filing of the sale they were not in a bad place at all. If Activison wasn't making money those developers and projects would be cancelled with or without King anyway. King isn't funding Activision if that's what you're trying to say.
 
If those services allow you to play their games without purchasing their hardware good. Even less complaining about MS being a monopoly with Game pass then.


The argument was MS was forcing customers to buy their hardware to play their games. Glad you realize that is nonsense.
The argument was that MS is taking third party IPs away to force people into their ecosystem. They are forcing people to buy their hardware or use their service to access the games. A service that they now say is pretty useless and inefficient so nobody uses it apparently.
 
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What exactly is the goal of Sony? To block the sale to MS and/or any other larger player? What does that achieve in the future market?

It plays out bad most likely e.g. Tencent or oil money swallow the industry and Apple/Google duopoly continues uncontested?

Seems like MS is a solid candidate to tackle the likes of the dominant players such as Tencent, Apple and Sony. The exact opposite of what Sony and FTC claim.
 
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The argument was that MS is taking third party IPs away to force people into their ecosystem. They are forcing people to buy their hardware or use their service to access the games. A service that they now say is pretty useless and inefficient so nobody uses it apparently.
Microsoft doesn't own steam or Nintendo.
 
Interesting, apparently Phil offered Sony COD on Playstation Plus -

Source 1, Kotaku AU (they're better than US Kotaku).
Source 2 - Bloomberg


  • 10 year deal to keep COD on any platform e.g. Sony PS
  • Day One parity with competing platforms for releases
  • PS subs included too in the above points
  • Nintendo and Steam signed off already
Sony looking like cunts out here. This case is a joke.

Can we just move the industry forward and share games on whatever platform? Given the financing is there to develop those releases. I would be far more interested in the FTC/regulators focus on creating policy and laws that enabled the industry rather than block it e.g. fuck Apple and Sony with their walled gardens. Open up like Google/Pixel or Azure/Linux etc. Gaming crosses all of these globalised companies. Regulators would do well to look at the Internet and corporate takeovers of open and free frameworks to reveal the drive to walled gardens. Regulators could use this gaming opportunity for openness and sustainability over any singular entity.
Sony doesn't want Call of Duty on PS Plus; that's great for gamers, not so great for Sony. It wants to maintain the status quo: a 30% platform holder cut of Call of Duty's PlayStation sales, a cut of Call of Duty's DLC and MTX sold on PlayStation, and to use Call of Duty to drive its own PS+ subscriptions on top of that. Call of Duty on PS Plus wouldn't make Sony anywhere near as much money. It would also put Sony against a wall with its own day one releases on PS Plus - something Sony really doesn't want to do. I feel that offer was Microsoft calling Sony's bluff; Nintendo happily accepted, and now Sony will need to explain to regulators why it didn't.
 
Microsoft doesn't own steam or Nintendo.
COD was on steam already and unfortunately doesn't officially run on anything but windows. MS made the offer to Nintendo knowing full well that they aren't going to lose CoD players to people buying a Switch instead of Xbox. They know the audience and market well. They are trying to force a certain other audience over with those exclusives. We were talking about their past behaviour for Zenimax and all their other dev purchases anyway and not specifically COD. They are only offering these now (including to PS) because they want this to go through.
 
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Sony doesn't want Call of Duty on PS Plus; that's great for gamers, not so great for Sony. It wants to maintain the status quo: a 30% platform holder cut of Call of Duty's PlayStation sales, a cut of Call of Duty's DLC and MTX sold on PlayStation, and to use Call of Duty to drive its own PS+ subscriptions on top of that. Call of Duty on PS Plus wouldn't make Sony anywhere near as much money. It would also put Sony against a wall with its own day one releases on PS Plus - something Sony really doesn't want to do. I feel that offer was Microsoft calling Sony's bluff; Nintendo happily accepted, and now Sony will need to explain to regulators why it didn't.
Sony has had 5 CoD games on PS+ already. It's Activision who wouldn't want it because it wouldn't make near as much money and they would ask for money for all those lost sales.
 
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Sony doesn't want Call of Duty on PS Plus; that's great for gamers, not so great for Sony. It wants to maintain the status quo: a 30% platform holder cut of Call of Duty's PlayStation sales, a cut of Call of Duty's DLC and MTX sold on PlayStation, and to use Call of Duty to drive its own PS+ subscriptions on top of that. Call of Duty on PS Plus wouldn't make Sony anywhere near as much money. It would also put Sony against a wall with its own day one releases on PS Plus - something Sony really doesn't want to do. I feel that offer was Microsoft calling Sony's bluff; Nintendo happily accepted, and now Sony will need to explain to regulators why it didn't.

Why don't gamers want COD on PS+?
 
ABK are not in a bad place. Where does this keep coming from. If you look at the SEC filing of the sale they were not in a bad place at all. If Activison wasn't making money those developers and projects would be cancelled with or without King anyway. King isn't funding Activision if that's what you're trying to say.
Abk is in a bad place PR wise, but that's their fault for turning a blind eye toward abuse. If the deal falls through and they go under, they have themselves to blame.
 
Sony has had 5 CoD games on PS+ already. It's Activision who wouldn't want it because it wouldn't make near as much money and they would ask for money for all those lost sales.
You've already asked, answered, and explained why your own post is incorrect:
  1. Sony has not had 5 CoD games on PS+ on Day One.
  2. Activision would've asked Sony to make up for the missing sales revenue for the titles to be included on PS+ on Day One.
  3. Ergo, Sony is the limiting factor.
As Activision would make exactly the same amount of money regardless, my post stands: "Call of Duty on PS Plus wouldn't make Sony anywhere near as much money." Microsoft can put Call of Duty on Game Pass on Day One because Microsoft didn't put all of its eggs in Call of Duty's basket. Driving Game Pass is their primary motivation for this purchase, I believe.

Why don't gamers want COD on PS+?
Gamers do, because it would be cheaper for them. Sony doesn't, because it would be cheaper for gamers.
 
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You've already asked, answered, and explained why your own post is incorrect:
I didn't even ask a question. What are you talking about?
  1. Sony has not had 5 CoD games on PS+ on Day One.
  2. Activision would've asked Sony to make up for the missing sales revenue for the titles to be included on PS+ on Day One.
  3. Ergo, Sony is the limiting factor.

  1. Nobody in the filings has ever talked about wanting day one access. This is just something brought up by xbox folks. Sony would love day one Call of Duty on PS+ it would cost too much though. This is completely different to "not wanting COD on PS+". Once it becomes a competitor those terms can become even more unfavourable, day one or not.
  2. which would have been more costly than any 30% loss from the "status quo".
  3. Me: You don't want a Ferrari.You: but I've bought some older ones already. Me: not the new one though, you're the limiting factor.

As Activision would make exactly the same amount of money regardless, my post stands: "Call of Duty on PS Plus wouldn't make Sony anywhere near as much money." Microsoft can put Call of Duty on Game Pass on Day One because Microsoft didn't put all of its eggs in Call of Duty's basket. Driving Game Pass is their primary motivation for this purchase, I believe.
Your point was bizarre. You were making it seem like Sony doesn't want COD on PS+ because it would rather have

"a 30% platform holder cut of Call of Duty's PlayStation sales, a cut of Call of Duty's DLC and MTX sold on PlayStation, and to use Call of Duty to drive its own PS+ subscriptions"

which if you think about it doesn't make any fucking sense. The 30% is nothing compared to the 70% they would need to pay, DLC and MTXs would still be a thing with the game on PS+, and the last point is a contradiction about wanting to drive PS+. The one thing you failed to mention is the only valid point you have. Sony doesn't do day one COD on PS+ because Activison would ask for a lot of money to be convinced. The 70% in lost sales.

MS seems to be putting a lot of eggs into the Call of duty basket too. 70B is probably more than the xbox division has ever made in profits. Let's not pretend that Sony relied too much on a third party when that's what MS have been buying up with a lot of money.
 
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