Maybe just stick with an avatar bet for the next one, amigo. Don't go paying for a classroom's worth of games when all's said and done
From the wording it sounds like a behavioral remedy (or remedies) is only something they'd entertain if they're VERY good and notably better than what Microsoft have already publicly pitched. So they would have to be beyond a 10-year deal.
You even said it yourself: a deal for full COD multiplatform access and parity (including service access) in perpetuity. But the challenge to that is the services part, because MS can still just roll COD into Game Pass and for various financial reasons, Sony would not be able to do the same for PS+. When it comes to gaming revenue, every dollar MS loses means at least 10x in value that Sony loses on the same dollar. That's the difference in gaming as a pillar for the respective companies revenue and especially profit-wise.
So MS could promise to keep COD on PlayStation forever, have feature and timing parity, marketing parity (meaning both can advertise COD for their platform as they see fit) and so forth, but even though Sony could put COD in PS+, that works against their business model for PlayStation. OTOH, MS can and most likely would put COD in Game Pass, and any money left on the table through loss of direct sales means literally nothing to them because Xbox's absolute revenue is a pittance compared to the money Microsoft makes from their other divisions.
It can basically be argued as a form of predatory pricing, which does fall under antitrust. And that would be a big hold-up in any such behavioral remedy, long as MS still had full ownership of COD. Which is why I think the concessions will probably be structural remedies, likely divesting COD into its own company (but I can see them allowing MS to retain partial ownership).
So MS are telling regulators Xbox MAU is 55 million? And we all know that's between Game Pass, XBL Gold, and Silver (which is free).
I mean, are they only focusing on Xbox-branded services, so not including Game Pass, or only accounting for services (any type) actually accessed through Xbox consoles? I think it HAS to only be considering Xbox consoles here, not PC, mobile, PlayStation or Nintendo platforms, because they can only reach 120 million MAU by including all the non-Xbox consoles in there.
It's really weird, both in however MS are reporting the number and whether or not they've done something illegal. I'd just play it safe and say the 55 million is for all MS-owned services accessed through Xbox consoles, although again folks don't need to pay for Silver or for accounts needed for say Minecraft. And the 120 million figure accounts for Xbox consoles, Sony consoles, Nintendo consoles, PC and mobile. Probably bloated with a shit ton of free Minecraft accounts, ESO accounts, Sea of Thieves accounts and the such.