Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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mansoor1980

Member
I think it's dead at this point.




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NickFire

Member
Some massive discrepancies (MAU, GP leading to more sales) seem to be getting a lot of attention suddenly. This attention is making me reconsider my prior belief they would hold the line until April and then bail. 8 weeks is a LONG time for regulators (SEC included) to take note and start asking pointed questions with an expectation of direct answers. And the attention these discrepancies get will make it even harder for regulators to believe any offered remedies.

I'm starting to wonder if this deal survives this Friday afternoon. Friday afternoon is when you release news you want to get buried or die fast.

But on the bright side, I bet that they announce a release date or two really soon after pulling out regardless of when that occurs, along with more trailers of Starfield. I'm guessing they have been holding back some positive news to change the narrative once they pull out.
 
Do you think that’s enough? Just a licensing deal for last gen and this?

I mean the CMA has said divestiture is necessary.

But then added in the possibility of behavioural remedies - those remedies would have to be at least as encompassing and water tight as divestment.

There’s no timescale on divestment and no limit on licensing. MS would have to effectively put COD and whatever other properties the CMA chooses into a wholly owned subsidiary with separate management and financials.

They (MS) would have to show that they license content from the subsidiary in the same way as any other third party. That would be the equivalent of divestment in behaviour terms.

They would even have to pay the going rate for Gamepass COD.

I don’t feel a simple contract promising COD on PS is the equivalent of divestment…
No, not that simple but that I believe is the biggest part is how to own CoD but still offer fair value to the likes of Sony and others. How they get there I don’t know.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
I think it's dead at this point.





You are a bad bad person for posting a red dragon tweet.

Am I doing this right, R R3claimer117 ?
 
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Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Technically no.

They added PC, Mobile, Laptops, TV's and kitchen sinks to boost the mau number. It'd be securities fraud if they submitted the 120 number to courts. But it is disgusting and a misleading practice Microsoft has engaged in since 2013 when it comes to XBOX.
But they haven't made this distinction anywhere as far as I could see.
 

X-Wing

Member
I don't know if those open market dudes are very relevant. But good to see more people with knowledge voicing their distrust towards the acquisition.
 

NickFire

Member
DarkMage619 DarkMage619 yo, check this out. This addresses one of your points about why nobody was counting Nintendo and why "bringing COD to Nintendo" doesn't really matter.
In before: That guy they quoted was only a vice president. The actual president knows Nintendo is the primary competitor. Or would be except MS is putting COD on Duty to make Nintendo more competitive.
 

reksveks

Member
The survey polled 40k Call of Duty gamers on Playstation. That 24% is of Call of Duty players, not the all encompassing Playstation players. If 20% of Playstation players play Call of Duty, and roughly 25% of those players abandon Playstation for Xbox, only 5% of total Playstation players are migrating to Xbox. Still leaving Sony in the lead.
That's true.
 

ToadMan

Member
I'm not disagreeing with that, I'd understand if the regulators claimed the acquisition was "unfair". But their argument is that the consequence for the consumer would be less competition and less innovation, which is not what happens when competitors are closing in.
And honestly I don't think regulators are supposed to "like" the way companies increase their value. Their role is to make sure they don't reach monopolistic status that would hurt the consumer (otherwise they could block all company acquisition). And like I said, evening the competition is the opposite of that.

The CMA doesn’t say it, but over in the USA the FTC specifically states there is no problem with a company attaining or attempting to obtain monopoly status through “reasonable” means.

But they oppose the same monopoly status if obtained through “unreasonable” means and they are opposing the MS-ABK acquisition.
 
Maybe just stick with an avatar bet for the next one, amigo. Don't go paying for a classroom's worth of games when all's said and done 😅



From the wording it sounds like a behavioral remedy (or remedies) is only something they'd entertain if they're VERY good and notably better than what Microsoft have already publicly pitched. So they would have to be beyond a 10-year deal.

You even said it yourself: a deal for full COD multiplatform access and parity (including service access) in perpetuity. But the challenge to that is the services part, because MS can still just roll COD into Game Pass and for various financial reasons, Sony would not be able to do the same for PS+. When it comes to gaming revenue, every dollar MS loses means at least 10x in value that Sony loses on the same dollar. That's the difference in gaming as a pillar for the respective companies revenue and especially profit-wise.

So MS could promise to keep COD on PlayStation forever, have feature and timing parity, marketing parity (meaning both can advertise COD for their platform as they see fit) and so forth, but even though Sony could put COD in PS+, that works against their business model for PlayStation. OTOH, MS can and most likely would put COD in Game Pass, and any money left on the table through loss of direct sales means literally nothing to them because Xbox's absolute revenue is a pittance compared to the money Microsoft makes from their other divisions.

It can basically be argued as a form of predatory pricing, which does fall under antitrust. And that would be a big hold-up in any such behavioral remedy, long as MS still had full ownership of COD. Which is why I think the concessions will probably be structural remedies, likely divesting COD into its own company (but I can see them allowing MS to retain partial ownership).



So MS are telling regulators Xbox MAU is 55 million? And we all know that's between Game Pass, XBL Gold, and Silver (which is free).

I mean, are they only focusing on Xbox-branded services, so not including Game Pass, or only accounting for services (any type) actually accessed through Xbox consoles? I think it HAS to only be considering Xbox consoles here, not PC, mobile, PlayStation or Nintendo platforms, because they can only reach 120 million MAU by including all the non-Xbox consoles in there.

It's really weird, both in however MS are reporting the number and whether or not they've done something illegal. I'd just play it safe and say the 55 million is for all MS-owned services accessed through Xbox consoles, although again folks don't need to pay for Silver or for accounts needed for say Minecraft. And the 120 million figure accounts for Xbox consoles, Sony consoles, Nintendo consoles, PC and mobile. Probably bloated with a shit ton of free Minecraft accounts, ESO accounts, Sea of Thieves accounts and the such.

They put behavioral remedies on the same pedestal as divestiture or block. They also seem very conscious about solving the SLC concerns (which are now down to two from a much larger list before. Microsoft's arguments have clearly hit home. They had far more concerns than this in phase 1.

Cloud gaming in UK and consoles are as easy to fix as it gets. We shall see how our bet ends up, but I feel pretty good, win or lose, that this deal is 100% closing.

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This is significant progress for Microsoft.
 

NickFire

Member
They put behavioral remedies on the same pedestal as divestiture or block. They also seem very conscious about solving the SLC concerns (which are now down to two from a much larger list before. Microsoft's arguments have clearly hit home. They had far more concerns than this in phase 1.

Cloud gaming in UK and consoles are as easy to fix as it gets. We shall see how our bet ends up, but I feel pretty good, win or lose, that this deal is 100% closing.

sR20VI3.png


dBsQpyT.png

X7LO4NQ.png


This is significant progress for Microsoft.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
They put behavioral remedies on the same pedestal as divestiture or block. They also seem very conscious about solving the SLC concerns (which are now down to two from a much larger list before. Microsoft's arguments have clearly hit home. They had far more concerns than this in phase 1.

Cloud gaming in UK and consoles are as easy to fix as it gets. We shall see how our bet ends up, but I feel pretty good, win or lose, that this deal is 100% closing.

sR20VI3.png


dBsQpyT.png

X7LO4NQ.png


This is significant progress for Microsoft.

Feel Better I Love You GIF by 60 Second Docs
 
They put behavioral remedies on the same pedestal as divestiture or block. They also seem very conscious about solving the SLC concerns (which are now down to two from a much larger list before. Microsoft's arguments have clearly hit home. They had far more concerns than this in phase 1.

Cloud gaming in UK and consoles are as easy to fix as it gets. We shall see how our bet ends up, but I feel pretty good, win or lose, that this deal is 100% closing.

sR20VI3.png


dBsQpyT.png

X7LO4NQ.png


This is significant progress for Microsoft.

UXOUqwE.png
 
You know this thing is effectively over, and is going to be approved, right? Get your hopes up about an alternate outcome if you want to. I'll take my L if I'm wrong in the end, but I'm confident I won't be.

Be ready for my response when it's all said and done. Today is the day we found out this transaction will get approved.
Exactly how did today give you hope for approval? At this point you HAVE to be trolling… right?
 

Topher

Identifies as young
You know this thing is effectively over, and is going to be approved, right? Get your hopes up about an alternate outcome if you want to. I'll take my L if I'm wrong in the end, but I'm confident I won't be.

Be ready for my response when it's all said and done. Today is the day we found out this transaction will get approved.

Today is the day? You've said that about as many times as you've said you were going to stop posting.
 
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