Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
DeepEnigma said:
My bet's on the FTC.
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MasterCornholio said:
My bets on the other FTC.
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bold GIF
 
SneakersSO said:
I've signaled this a few times, but i'll explain this again: the purchasing agreement that ATVI & MS signed also has a good faith clause; *any* act done in the public view that can be construed as being anything less than showing full support for the merger itself by either party can be viewed as being in breach of this good faith clause, and thus opens up the party to litigation by the other for breaching the purchasing agreement.

You do not hire an outside financial firm to act as Activist Investor Protection, which has to be done publicly because the mere act of hiring them is a signal to your shareholders, and the sole purpose of hiring them is to protect your executive board from said shareholders. Since ATVI is the one being purchased, this isn't an act of ATVI hiring Morgan Stanley to protect them from MS shareholders, because as far as ATVI is concerned, they aren't going to even have shareholders should this deal go through.

The only reason you would do this is if you are fully anticipating that a merger deal is not going to go through. I went through an $8B M&A process in 2021 and we did not have to hire any outside financial firm for this, cause we were 100% confident (both us and the group buying my employer) that the merger was going to be approved uncontested, and we were; doing so would put us at risk of breaching our good faith clause.

As you said though, this does not mean that ATVI feels the deal is 100% dead, but the fact that they would even do this signals its far closer to dying than anything else. To put it another way - many big fiscal analysts in Wall Street have, since January 2022, put the odds of this deal going through at about 50% and even had some articles/editorials written covering why. The stock price of ATVI has traded well below the sale price of the purchasing agreement this entire time because of this lack of confidence (purchasing price is $96 per share - its traded in the $70~ price range per share this entire time). Its super unusual btw for the stock price of a company set to be bought by a bigger entity to trade this far below the sale price. And yet, it wasn't until now that ATVI went and hired a Activist Investor Protection group. Take that however you want.
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Very interesting stuff, but the bolded part: Doesn't Activision doing that technically open them up to a lawsuit from Microsoft then?
 
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3liteDragon said:
Very interesting stuff, but the bolded part: Doesn't Activision doing that technically open them up to a lawsuit from Microsoft then?
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I think the point there is why they're saying you don't do this unless you are seriously staring down a barrel already. One of those situations where you just do it, consequences be damned, because not doing it might be much worse. A lot to lose for the people on top.
 
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ToadMan said:
From your link (did you read it? And understand what you read? Presumably not).

"The FTC has appealed the ALJ's ruling to the full Commission."

That is to say they are doing an appeal and the decision will be taken by the FTC commissioners themselves. And they haven't ruled against themselves for 25 years …. ever.

Do I really have to spell it out? Meh may as well.

That's a 100% record of FTC in the administrative court.
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They appealed to themselves. Of course they have a 100% win record there. What is their record in FEDERAL court? Here is one of their recent outings in Federal Court since you keep bringing up their winning record.

www.cnbc.com

Meta acquisition of Within reportedly approved by court in loss for FTC

The FTC sued to block Meta's acquisition of Within in July, arguing Meta was using the deal "to buy its way to the top," rather than compete on its own merits.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
3liteDragon said:
Very interesting stuff, but the bolded part: Doesn't Activision doing that technically open them up to a lawsuit from Microsoft then?
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Yeah, Varteras Varteras answer is right on the money.
Varteras said:
I think the point there is why they're saying you don't do this unless you are seriously staring down a barrel already. One of those situations where you just do it, consequences be damned, because not doing it might be much worse. A lot to lose for the people on top.
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Remember - should this deal fall through, regardless of the reason as to why it did, but should that happen, ATVI suddenly gets a massive cash injection ranging between $2-$3b, depending on when exactly this happens. Sure, ATVI's stock price will fall, but there will be big fights amongst ATVI shareholders and the board on what exactly is going to happen with this money when that time arrives.

ATVI feels they are in a position where they must now do this. Also, 3liteDragon 3liteDragon , to your original point: MS' silence since CMA Preliminary Findings were released last week could also be construed as them 'not being in full support of the deal', and thus violates the good faith clause. I doubt that MS and ATVI will want to engage in a protracted legal battle against one another, trying to point fingers, when there is just as good a chance that the leadership teams for both groups get the boot or get golden parachutes to leave should this deal fall flat on its face.
 
ToadMan said:
From your link (did you read it? And understand what you read? Presumably not).

"The FTC has appealed the ALJ's ruling to the full Commission."

That is to say they are doing an appeal and the decision will be taken by the FTC commissioners themselves. And they haven't ruled against themselves for 25 years …. ever.

Do I really have to spell it out? Meh may as well.

That's a 100% record of FTC in the administrative court.
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Yes, I have read it and understood it. It is you have stated that;
ToadMan said:
But there's no statute of limitations on this kind of ruling. The FTC will grind its way through its administrative court system and almost certainly find that MS's merger is illegal. They have a 100% record in the administrative court.
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https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rel...in-ftc-challenge-of-grail-deal-301616612.html they have lost 2 cases last year in their own administrative court with their own ALJ. Yes, they can appeal, but they don't have 100% record with their own ALJs.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/administrative-law-judge-dismisses-ftc-214200502.html

Also
The U.S. Federal Trade Commission, which lost a fight in court over whether Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc (META.O) could buy VR content maker Within, has decided to withdraw the matter from its in-house adjudication, which was to begin on Monday.
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https://www.reuters.com/markets/dea...eta-over-within-deal-adjudication-2023-02-10/

So please stop making FTC some sort of unbeatable entity. They have got a track record of losing cases.

We also have got this brewing
https://www.bakerbotts.com/thought-...urt-questions-the-ftcs-administrative-process
 
Gonna be crazy boring when this doesn't go through and there's nothing else to talk about......hopefully some games get announced for us to fill the front page with.
 
Ar¢tos said:
We haven't heard from Phil Spencer in a really long time, is he OK?
We usually get 2 or 3 interviews or press releases a week from him and now there is only... absolute silence. Feels unnatural.
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I think MS said to Phil Spencer to put a sock in it and let us do the talking by the legal department of MS and in the person of for example Satya Nadalla....
 
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DenchDeckard said:
Gonna be crazy boring when this doesn't go through and there's nothing else to talk about......hopefully some games get announced for us to fill the front page with.
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I'm ready to get past this stuff either way because it seems obvious that neither Sony or Microsoft are making any major announcements until this is settled.
 
Pelta88 said:
FTC internal politics has zero bearing on the deal.
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Yeah, going to disagree with this take.

There's evidence to support that Khan is overstepping her boundaries, which, of course, she'd argue is why she was appointed in the first place--not just to rubberstamp megadeals. But to pretend like Republicans aren't noticing what she is doing and won't take action is just overlooking how these fights in DC generally go down.

Is this a silver bullet for Microsoft? Heck no. But I don't believe it can be tossed aside, either. If and when it comes time to make Khan look like an overzealous idiot, this will have been a crucial moment.

PharaoTutAnchAmun said:
I think MS said to Phil Spencer to put a sock in it and let us do the talking by the legal department of MS and in the person of for example Satya Nadalla....
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Fully agreed. Phil has been absolutely dreadful to watch throughout this whole thing. He's not skillful or cunning or strategic. He's a big cornball who makes me cringe whenever he talks about "protecting the industry" and "cherishing Sony and Nintendo."
 
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Chiggs said:
Yeah, going to disagree with this take.

There's evidence to support that Khan is overstepping her boundaries,
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Sounds like a sentence lifted directly from resetera's copium thread. I'm surprised feynoob feynoob didn't quote it directly.

Jokes aside, the deal faces an uphill battle on 3 separate fronts. If you think office politics at the FTC changes the EU and CMA's findings, you're mistaken. I know Khan's hairstyle and political viewpoint are a factor on era, outside of that bubble those things are non factors.
 
DarkMage619 said:
They appealed to themselves. Of course they have a 100% win record there. What is their record in FEDERAL court? Here is one of their recent outings in Federal Court since you keep bringing up their winning record.

[/URL]
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Yep their record in federal court isn't 100%.

But their record in federal court is still in their favor.

And people keep bringing up Meta-Within but its not comparable to MS-ABK in scale or illegitimacy of business practice.
 
Iced Arcade said:
I'm for the deal BUT that 10 year deal isn't all that it's cracked up to be when you take into account they were talking about stopping the annual release of COD.

That has potential shadiness
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Why are you for this? I asked this earlier but is there a reason anyone that sees how Microsoft runs their game single the ground could be for this?
 
DryvBy said:
Why are you for this? I asked this earlier but is there a reason anyone that sees how Microsoft runs their game single the ground could be for this?
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Game Pass. That is literally the only reason people want this to go through.

And before someone responds with, "But the Activision Blizzard employees..." Nobody gives a shit about the employees. Nobody cared about them before this acquisition, and to use them as a crutch is an insult to all of those employees.
 
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IFireflyl said:
Game Pass. That is literally the only reason people want this to go through.

And before someone responds with, "But the Activision Blizzard employees..." Nobody gives a shit about the employees. Nobody cared about them before this acquisition, and to use them as a crutch is an insult to all of those employees.
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There were actually many reports written about how bad it was at Activision before this deal was proposed.

But let's pretend those didn't happen.
 
DryvBy said:
Why are you for this? I asked this earlier but is there a reason anyone that sees how Microsoft runs their game single the ground could be for this?
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Already said multiple times, I'm not super invested in "for" or "against"... Just simply wouldn't mind the games put on gamepass & PS plus 💁 (I'm against taking away from other platforms though).
 
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PharaoTutAnchAmun said:
I think MS said to Phil Spencer to put a sock in it and let us do the talking by the legal department of MS and in the person of for example Satya Nadalla....
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I think you are talking out of your ass. As if you have any frame of reference to understand what goes on at that level at a trillion dollar company. Laughable.
 
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ToadMan said:
Yep their record in federal court isn't 100%.

But their record in federal court is still in their favor.

And people keep bringing up Meta-Within but its not comparable to MS-ABK in scale or illegitimacy of business practice.
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The Meta case absolutely isn't like this one. Meta is the industry leader in the VR and MS is third out of three competitors in video games. There is actually anti trust considerations with Meta and political posturing against MS in gaming.
 
IFireflyl said:
I can't hear you over that permanent ban.
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honestly it's a shame, Kagey used to be one of the more sensible xbox fans on here, it's kinda crazy how this past year so many of them have just gone off the deep end

the over the top Sony warriors have pretty much all been banned at this point & so have most of the worst Xbox ones but I hope the others don't follow Kagey's lead
 
graywolf323 said:
honestly it's a shame, Kagey used to be one of the more sensible xbox fans on here, it's kinda crazy how this past year so many of them have just gone off the deep end

the over the top Sony warriors have pretty much all been banned at this point & so have most of the worst Xbox ones but I hope the others don't follow Kagey's lead
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Good riddance if you ask me. Forum is better without console warriors like that. You can't have a discussion with those types and they ruin every thread they enter.
 
TheGodfather07 said:
Good riddance if you ask me. Forum is better without console warriors like that. You can't have a discussion with those types and they ruin every thread they enter.
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oh I'm not saying Kagey doesn't deserve the ban, they went completely off the rails over the past year

it's just a shame we're seeing posters break down over stupid console wars stuff, Kagey wasn't this bad of a console warrior just 2 years ago or so
 
DenchDeckard said:
Gonna be crazy boring when this doesn't go through and there's nothing else to talk about......hopefully some games get announced for us to fill the front page with.
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We will fill the first page with VR games impressions and videos of grandmas and grandpas, mistaking VR for real life, jumping into furniture, and punching their grandkids. 🔥
 
DenchDeckard said:
Gonna be crazy boring when this doesn't go through and there's nothing else to talk about......hopefully some games get announced for us to fill the front page with.
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We can go back to what we know;

Theorising about Teraflop counts for the rumoured Pro editions/next gen.

Real talk for me I just hope this is killed in the next few weeks. I suspect it won't be though.

I think MS try for remedial concessions and do another round of interviews bigging up their 20 year CoD offer, knowing full well that it won't be approved by the CMA. Then we'll have to listen to the pro-acquisition peeps on here explaining why 20 years of CoD access completely nullifies every single one of the CMAs concerns (it doesn't). Then when MS realise it won't go through they'll be another round of interviews slating the CMA before they pull the plug and watch the shitty bathwater circle around. Fin.
 
graywolf323 said:
oh I'm not saying Kagey doesn't deserve the ban, they went completely off the rails over the past year

it's just a shame we're seeing posters break down over stupid console wars stuff, Kagey wasn't this bad of a console warrior just 2 years ago or so
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The fanboys have been having a tough time keeping their emotions in check as this acquisition progressed, that's for sure. Pretty amusing to see.
 
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Chiggs said:
.


Fully agreed. Phil has been absolutely dreadful to watch throughout this whole thing. He's not skillful or cunning or strategic. He's a big cornball who makes me cringe whenever he talks about "protecting the industry" and "cherishing Sony and Nintendo."
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Maybe Phil is actually working undercover for Sony and all his talking and interviews that led to the CMA blocking the deal was the plan after all.

When the deal is officially blocked you're gonna hear that Jim Ryan has acquired Phil and they gonna post a selfie together. In bed.
 
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