Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
Topher said:
- One lawyer following the case noted that the EC accepted similar remedies last year in Meta's acquisition of Kustomer. This lawyer also expects way more opposition from the CMA, who left the door "barely open".

- A second Brussels-based lawyer believes that the remedies offered by MS will be enough for the EC, noting that the timeline of the EU investigation is almost in step with the CMA: "The CMA is looking at a theory of harm that the EC has already dismissed so there are some differences on the substance, but I would be surprised if the final decisions are fundamentally inconsistent".

- It looks like the EC is only worried about competition being reduced in the markets for the distribution of console/PC games and PC operating systems (nothing about cloud gaming, then).

- The same second lawyer dismisses the concerns regarding COD because recent acquisitions in the audio-visual sector like the 21st Century Fox didn't focused on single money-spinning franchises.

- The second lawyer also says that MS is offering provisions ensuring that Sony gets the game at a discount of the Microsoft price and any new version of the game at the same time as MS.

- Google raised concerns again about the merger creating a very Windows centric environment and developers having to write for Windows. This lawyer believes that the EC has already decided that this concern doesn't make sense.

- A third lawyer believes that the EC identified several competition concerns and fails to see how opening COD to more partners will solve other issues.

- It looks like MS/ABK will propose (to the EC and likely the CMA) an official package that will compromise the offer of a ten-year license for all ABK games. This remedy will be marked tested (as usual) and they expect the acceptance of the majority of the market with one or two exceptions that shouldn't be enough to block the deal, that would go forward with a conditional clearance.

The CMA is still the final boss, but it's starting to sound that the EC and China are going to approve the deal. It's also interesting that the EC maybe is not worried about cloud gaming.
Click to expand...
10 years on all ABK games would be interesting. This was basically what most people pointed out would be the bare minimum to get this over the finish line. I'm sure many at Microsoft will gnash their teeth about that. For some there's no compromise.
 
Little Chicken said:
Sorry, I mean that if Sony were to (supposedly, at their own admission) struggle to maintain their current first-party output if their CoD revenue is diminished, then perhaps they should start making different games and diversify genres a little instead of the usual TPS.
Click to expand...
I think you've completely misunderstood that point. PlayStation would have to become more risk adverse meaning they would have less option to diversify the game content they produce - thereby damaging consumer choice.

Xbox should be able to fill that gap with so many studios yet are so confident in what they can produce that they had to try and buy ATVI after acquiring all of Bethesda as part of Zenimax.

It speaks volumes the confidence Xbox has in anything they have in production if they feel they need to own CoD to compete. If you were a developer working for them and were really pleased with what you were making you'd be rightfully irritated by the lack of vocal support in the over arching narrative that Xbox needs to own ATVI, and probably start considering your other options to work somewhere where publisher support isn't just for show in a tweet when your game goes out.
 
demigod said:
VsXQMpz.gif


Alright bud, who on this forum is calling for ms demise?
Click to expand...
Yeah, your not even trying. Are you really pretending that a lot of posters in this very thread are not talking with glee about Microsoft quitting the console business.

Posting a gif doesn't make your post truer either.
 
Last edited:
ToadMan said:
You're not wrong…

The point of bungie is that it was small enough to fly under the radar and Sony did the right thing by maintaining Bungie's independence.

Either of which would have saved MS's embarrassment now.

Imagine being able to work that out for yourself deer 🤷‍♂️
Click to expand...

I can't work shit all out 😂

But they would of had less bother if Spencer kept his fucking gob shut. All he's done is run his mouth. They've only just put him on a leash when it started looking "dire"
 
Topher said:
- One lawyer following the case noted that the EC accepted similar remedies last year in Meta's acquisition of Kustomer. This lawyer also expects way more opposition from the CMA, who left the door "barely open".

- A second Brussels-based lawyer believes that the remedies offered by MS will be enough for the EC, noting that the timeline of the EU investigation is almost in step with the CMA: "The CMA is looking at a theory of harm that the EC has already dismissed so there are some differences on the substance, but I would be surprised if the final decisions are fundamentally inconsistent".

- It looks like the EC is only worried about competition being reduced in the markets for the distribution of console/PC games and PC operating systems (nothing about cloud gaming, then).

- The same second lawyer dismisses the concerns regarding COD because recent acquisitions in the audio-visual sector like the 21st Century Fox didn't focused on single money-spinning franchises.

- The second lawyer also says that MS is offering provisions ensuring that Sony gets the game at a discount of the Microsoft price and any new version of the game at the same time as MS.

- Google raised concerns again about the merger creating a very Windows centric environment and developers having to write for Windows. This lawyer believes that the EC has already decided that this concern doesn't make sense.

- A third lawyer believes that the EC identified several competition concerns and fails to see how opening COD to more partners will solve other issues.

- It looks like MS/ABK will propose (to the EC and likely the CMA) an official package that will compromise the offer of a ten-year license for all ABK games. This remedy will be marked tested (as usual) and they expect the acceptance of the majority of the market with one or two exceptions that shouldn't be enough to block the deal, that would go forward with a conditional clearance.

The CMA is still the final boss, but it's starting to sound that the EC and China are going to approve the deal. It's also interesting that the EC maybe is not worried about cloud gaming.
Click to expand...
10 years for all ABK games?

So they're buying now, but actually getting possession of the purchased items in 10 years …

That's like preordering from Amazon…
 
Topher said:
- One lawyer following the case noted that the EC accepted similar remedies last year in Meta's acquisition of Kustomer. This lawyer also expects way more opposition from the CMA, who left the door "barely open".

- A second Brussels-based lawyer believes that the remedies offered by MS will be enough for the EC, noting that the timeline of the EU investigation is almost in step with the CMA: "The CMA is looking at a theory of harm that the EC has already dismissed so there are some differences on the substance, but I would be surprised if the final decisions are fundamentally inconsistent".

- It looks like the EC is only worried about competition being reduced in the markets for the distribution of console/PC games and PC operating systems (nothing about cloud gaming, then).

- The same second lawyer dismisses the concerns regarding COD because recent acquisitions in the audio-visual sector like the 21st Century Fox didn't focused on single money-spinning franchises.

- The second lawyer also says that MS is offering provisions ensuring that Sony gets the game at a discount of the Microsoft price and any new version of the game at the same time as MS.

- Google raised concerns again about the merger creating a very Windows centric environment and developers having to write for Windows. This lawyer believes that the EC has already decided that this concern doesn't make sense.

- A third lawyer believes that the EC identified several competition concerns and fails to see how opening COD to more partners will solve other issues.

- It looks like MS/ABK will propose (to the EC and likely the CMA) an official package that will compromise the offer of a ten-year license for all ABK games. This remedy will be marked tested (as usual) and they expect the acceptance of the majority of the market with one or two exceptions that shouldn't be enough to block the deal, that would go forward with a conditional clearance.

The CMA is still the final boss, but it's starting to sound that the EC and China are going to approve the deal. It's also interesting that the EC maybe is not worried about cloud gaming.
Click to expand...
I don't understand how 10 years resolves anything? No concerns are addressed with that, it's just postponing the impact of the concerns by 10 years.
 
knocksky said:
Yeah, your not even trying. And you are even trying to pretend that a lot of posters in this very thread are talking with glee about Microsoft quitting the console business.

Posting a gif doesn't make your post truer either.
Click to expand...

Discussing whether Microsoft would abandon the console business or not does equate to "talking with glee". I certainly haven't seen those posts anyway, but if you want to point them out then I'd be interested to see what those posts said.
 
Topher said:
- One lawyer following the case noted that the EC accepted similar remedies last year in Meta's acquisition of Kustomer. This lawyer also expects way more opposition from the CMA, who left the door "barely open".

- A second Brussels-based lawyer believes that the remedies offered by MS will be enough for the EC, noting that the timeline of the EU investigation is almost in step with the CMA: "The CMA is looking at a theory of harm that the EC has already dismissed so there are some differences on the substance, but I would be surprised if the final decisions are fundamentally inconsistent".

- It looks like the EC is only worried about competition being reduced in the markets for the distribution of console/PC games and PC operating systems (nothing about cloud gaming, then).

- The same second lawyer dismisses the concerns regarding COD because recent acquisitions in the audio-visual sector like the 21st Century Fox didn't focused on single money-spinning franchises.

- The second lawyer also says that MS is offering provisions ensuring that Sony gets the game at a discount of the Microsoft price and any new version of the game at the same time as MS.

- Google raised concerns again about the merger creating a very Windows centric environment and developers having to write for Windows. This lawyer believes that the EC has already decided that this concern doesn't make sense.

- A third lawyer believes that the EC identified several competition concerns and fails to see how opening COD to more partners will solve other issues.

- It looks like MS/ABK will propose (to the EC and likely the CMA) an official package that will compromise the offer of a ten-year license for all ABK games. This remedy will be marked tested (as usual) and they expect the acceptance of the majority of the market with one or two exceptions that shouldn't be enough to block the deal, that would go forward with a conditional clearance.

The CMA is still the final boss, but it's starting to sound that the EC and China are going to approve the deal. It's also interesting that the EC maybe is not worried about cloud gaming.
Click to expand...
With all games for 10 years they have a good chance to approve, but I would say, all games for 15 years they lock this deal.
 
Google raised concerns again about the merger creating a very Windows centric environment and developers having to write for Windows. This lawyer believes that the EC has already decided that this concern doesn't make sense.
Click to expand...
This ship said long ago in my opinion.


Banjo64 said:
I don't understand how 10 years resolves anything? No concerns are addressed with that, it's just postponing the impact of the concerns by 10 years.
Click to expand...
EC in the LinkedIn and Fitbit mergers did accept 10 year concessions and one of them also had the EC retain the option to renew it for another 10 years.
 
PaintTinJr said:
I think you've completely misunderstood that point. PlayStation would have to become more risk adverse meaning they would have less option to diversify the game content they produce - thereby damaging consumer choice.

Xbox should be able to fill that gap with so many studios yet are so confident in what they can produce that they had to try and buy ATVI after acquiring all of Bethesda as part of Zenimax.

It speaks volumes the confidence Xbox has in anything they have in production if they feel they need to own CoD to compete. If you were a developer working for them and were really pleased with what you were making you'd be rightfully irritated by the lack of vocal support in the over arching narrative that Xbox needs to own ATVI, and probably start considering your other options to work somewhere where publisher support isn't just for show in a tweet when your game goes out.
Click to expand...
Hmm yes, I was just thinking that Sony lean on very extravagant and expensive productions too much, whereas a series of smaller "AA" titles, if successful, could generate similar returns and future franchise opportunities.
 
Banjo64 said:
I don't understand how 10 years resolves anything? No concerns are addressed with that, it's just postponing the impact of the concerns by 10 years.
Click to expand...
Just to play a bit of devil's advocate here: if they had to make everything available for 10 years, then dropping support of all third-party platforms would be really difficult to do. First of all they would have to give that money up from those third parties, and secondly it would make it easy to have regulators target them later for going back on what they stated their intentions were.
 
Sanepar said:
With all games for 10 years they have a good chance to approve, but I would say, all games for 15 years they lock this deal.
Click to expand...
The issue still lies with cloud gaming, and if regulators will see 10 years as enough if cloud gaming is still a growing market.
 
demigod said:
MS were the first ones against it during the 360 days when Sony allowed it. They reversed their course when they were losing player base to Sony.
Click to expand...
Not only this but the whining about FF14 by some of the xbox playerbase is due to MS not wanting crossplay back then either and wanting their own servers if I recall correctly.
 
Topher said:
Discussing whether Microsoft would abandon the console business or not does equate to "talking with glee". I certainly haven't seen those posts anyway, but if you want to point them out then I'd be interested to see what those posts said.
Click to expand...
Okay. You know as well as I do what I am talking about. Perhaps glee was not the right phrase to use. I should have said "concerned speculation" by the usual suspects.

You know who am talking about. You have been here long enough.
 
FUBARx89 said:
I can't work shit all out 😂

But they would of had less bother if Spencer kept his fucking gob shut. All he's done is run his mouth. They've only just put him on a leash when it started looking "dire"
Click to expand...

Totally agree.

Specifically when he said Zeni games wouldn't make sense as exclusives before acquisition, only to then make them exclusive.

Sony will probably do something similar with Bungie to be honest - but they'll let the dust settle and do it quiet like. Cosmetics exclusive here, DLC there etc. not enough to remove the multiplat status but enough to get people to prefer a Sony platform.

All Phil had to do was be cool - put the zeni games out multiplat and day one gamepass, and this deal would be done now. In a few years the next round of games could have been exclusive and no one could have done anything. But Phil's not cool.

Or MS could have just bought CDPR or something and regulators wouldn't have cared.
 
reksveks said:
This ship said long ago in my opinion.



EC in the LinkedIn and Fitbit mergers did accept 10 year concessions and one of them also had the EC retain the option to renew it for another 10 years.
Click to expand...
That would be the only way this would make sense for me. 20 years would be a reasonable amount of time in my opinion for Sony and other competitors to diversify, and the relevance of CoD/other major titles in 20 years is harder to estimate compared to 10 years.
 
knocksky said:
Okay. You know as well as I do what I am talking about. Perhaps glee was not the right phrase to use. I should have said "concerned speculation" by the usual suspects.

You know who am talking about. You have been here long enough.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm aware it is has been discussed. I just don't think it was a "gleeful" discussion. But you've acknowledged that so all good.
 
ToadMan said:
Totally agree.

Specifically when he said Zeni games wouldn't make sense as exclusives before acquisition, only to then make them exclusive.

Sony will probably do something similar with Bungie to be honest - but they'll let the dust settle and do it quiet like. Cosmetics exclusive here, DLC there etc. not enough to remove the multiplat status but enough to get people to prefer a Sony platform.

All Phil had to do was be cool - put the zeni games out multiplat and day one gamepass, and this deal would be done now. In a few years the next round of games could have been exclusive and no one could have done anything. But Phil's not cool.

Or MS could have just bought CDPR or something and regulators wouldn't have cared.
Click to expand...
Yes they would of they would of forced divestment of the store CDPR. Granted Microsoft wouldn't care but the deal would raise flags of regulators.

en.m.wikipedia.org

GOG.com - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org
 
knocksky said:
Okay. You know as well as I do what I am talking about. Perhaps glee was not the right phrase to use. I should have said "concerned speculation" by the usual suspects.

You know who am talking about. You have been here long enough.
Click to expand...
Joined Jan 8, 2023

You haven't, though. Whose alt are you? *pulls off your mask* Oh... YOU! :messenger_face_screaming:
 
I find it really fishy that Hoeg is spreading FUD about MS closing down Xbox and being aggressively pro acquisition. Did he invest a lot of money in ATVI shares?

It really doesn't make sense that a lawyer is so engaged in this console war nonsense. Same for Pachter.
 
Edmund said:
I find it really fishy that Hoeg is spreading FUD about MS closing down Xbox and being aggressively pro acquisition. Did he invest a lot of money in ATVI shares?

It really doesn't make sense that a lawyer is so engaged in this console war nonsense. Same for Pachter.
Click to expand...
Pachter represents hedge funds that are invested in it going through.
 
Edmund said:
I find it really fishy that Hoeg is spreading FUD about MS closing down Xbox and being aggressively pro acquisition. Did he invest a lot of money in ATVI shares?

It really doesn't make sense that a lawyer is so engaged in this console war nonsense. Same for Pachter.
Click to expand...
They're all looking for clicks and followers. Don't trust tweets from anyone that seems biased one way or the other.
 
Edmund said:
I find it really fishy that Hoeg is spreading FUD about MS closing down Xbox and being aggressively pro acquisition. Did he invest a lot of money in ATVI shares?

It really doesn't make sense that a lawyer is so engaged in this console war nonsense. Same for Pachter.
Click to expand...

Pachter being Pachter as DeepEnigma DeepEnigma said. Hoeg is trying to turn this into a successful youtube channel. Seems he is better at youtube than being a lawyer.
 
Banjo64 said:
That would be the only way this would make sense for me. 20 years would be a reasonable amount of time in my opinion for Sony and other competitors to diversify, and the relevance of CoD/other major titles in 20 years is harder to estimate compared to 10 years.
Click to expand...
20 years and should not restrict to COD and bring Blizzard games too.
 
Banjo64 said:
That would be the only way this would make sense for me. 20 years would be a reasonable amount of time in my opinion for Sony and other competitors to diversify, and the relevance of CoD/other major titles in 20 years is harder to estimate compared to 10 years.
Click to expand...

I'll just offer some bits from the CMA.

1. Remedies are conventionally classified as either structural or behavioural. Structural remedies, such as prohibition and divestiture, are generally one-off measures that seek to restore or maintain the competitive structure of the market by addressing the market participants and/or their shares of the market. Behavioural remedies are normally ongoing measures that are designed to regulate or constrain the behaviour of merger parties. Some remedies, such as those relating to access to IP rights, may have features of structural or behavioural remedies depending on their particular formulation.


I quote that to context this (from the same CMA document)

2.
55WrOgW.jpg


Well yeah that's a lot to digest.

But that's the test the 10 year deal would have to meet to satisfy the CMA.
 
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Bonsaibäumchen said:
Did he get this stroke while writing this tweet? Because I can't comprehend how a healthy mind would come up with such an absurd take.
Click to expand...

Nah, suffered a stroke last year. Has had a tough road back, but I'm thankful that he emerged successfully from that scare to bring us these hot takes once again.
 
feynoob said:
I don't know reliable Phil is, but as of now, Xbox will stick around.
Click to expand...
Derek (doesn't need defending and owns up to his mistakes) also believes that as do I. Otherwise they can kiss the MS store goodbye (maybe worth it in the long run but you know they will try to make it a success)
 
feynoob said:
You are right. At least, VR is keeping him occupied.


I don't know reliable Phil is, but as of now, Xbox will stick around.
Click to expand...

Spoken like a true heir to a trillion dollar company.

Seriously, Xbox isn't going anywhere for the foreseeable future.

If the deal doesn't go through, id like to see them take that 70bill and start releasing AAA games every 2 months like they should be doing.
 
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