Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
Status
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Clintizzle said:
So if this goes through and Sony goes bankrupt, does my PS5 appreciate or depreciate?
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You might have to wait 10yrs to find out by which time it probably has depreciated because the PS6 release would have done that to it. I would say don't plan on making any mortgage payments with it based on this deal.
 
Fc Barcelona Sport GIF by Sports GIFs
 
Three said:
But that wasn't anybody's take except your own. The person wasn't talking about a third party publisher monopoly and how you think it wouldn't affect anybody because they would just release everywhere as a "third party monopoly". That was only you making that silly example. The person was talking about what it means for platform holders like Sony when they can no longer compete in X amount of years if content is pulled and MS gains a platform monopoly with that content.
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Are you just trying to be wrong with every post today or what? Are you trying for some Gaf record or streak or something?

I shouldn't have to repeatedly translate basic fucking English as well as elementary level reading comprehension because you apparently can't grasp it. Since when is your lack of ability my responsibility?

He said that if MS were to acquire every 3rd party publisher, that MS still wouldn't be a monopoly.

I said well If they acquired EVERY 3rd party then yeah, they really would be a monopoly. Theyd have monopolized third party publishers.

Now that's a very boiled down version of our convo, but that's really the gist of it. The take of MS acquiring every 3rd party publisher isn't and never was mine. I engaged with it for a couple of posts, and then stated that it was a ridiculous What-if scenario to begin with.

And then your silly ass came along telling me what silly take I had and what a silly example I've got.

It wasn't my take. Let me repeat this again in case you're still not sure. It wasn't my take.

And just to be sure one last time. Just in case you're still struggling to grasp simple sentences with simple words... It wasn't my take.

Got it? Now run along before you fail to comprehend something else.
 
Three said:
You might have to wait 10yrs to find out by which time it probably has depreciated because the PS6 release would have done that to it. I would say don't plan on making any mortgage payments with it based on this deal.
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While it was obviously a joke, I just can't help but point out that...

If deal caused Sony to go bankrupt, would my PS5 appreciate or depreciate?

Your answer assumes there would be a PS6.

For your sake, I really hope you're trying for some kind of reading comprehension streak record or something.
 
Three said:
You might have to wait 10yrs to find out by which time it probably has depreciated because the PS6 release would have done that to it. I would say don't plan on making any mortgage payments with it based on this deal.
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What sort of silly take is this? Why would you believe that Sony would go bankrupt? Not only that, but why would you advise someone to not make their mortgage payment with their console. That's not even possible unless you know of one that accepts consoles for payment. Pretty dumb take you got here in my opinion.




Sorry, trying to see what it would feel like to be like you. Surprisingly, it was even worse than I thought.
 
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Cheezewizz said:
Are you just trying to be wrong with every post today or what? Are you trying for some Gaf record or streak or something?

I shouldn't have to repeatedly translate basic fucking English as well as elementary level reading comprehension because you apparently can't grasp it. Since when is your lack of ability my responsibility?

He said that if MS were to acquire every 3rd party publisher, that MS still wouldn't be a monopoly.

I said well If they acquired EVERY 3rd party then yeah, they really would be a monopoly. Theyd have monopolized third party publishers.

Now that's a very boiled down version of our convo, but that's really the gist of it. The take of MS acquiring every 3rd party publisher isn't and never was mine. I engaged with it for a couple of posts, and then stated that it was a ridiculous What-if scenario to begin with.

And then your silly ass came along telling me what silly take I had and what a silly example I've got.

It wasn't my take. Let me repeat this again in case you're still not sure. It wasn't my take.

And just to be sure one last time. Just in case you're still struggling to grasp simple sentences with simple words... It wasn't my take.

Got it? Now run along before you fail to comprehend something else.
Click to expand...
Except you ignored this post by that person that you replied to with that drivel

No it wouldn't because at the time of requiring [sic] them playstation and valve and Nintendo would still exist until they didn't. If we have to wait for monopoly to form before we raise concern that's how that would play out
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The person was saying that a platform monopoly wouldn't exist until into the future it may. You then replied that a third party publisher monopoly would exist and games would release everywhere and said "Just as we can calculate that 1+1=2, we can also calculate that MS+ABK=No monopoly. So the "preventing a monopoly before it forms" excuse doesn't work."

The regulators concerns are about the platforms in the future not a third party monopoly where MS release everywhere. The platforms being cloud, multigame subscriptions, and console. So you missed the persons point entirely that buying all the third party publishers and giving platform holders 10 year deals doesn't make them a monopoly now until it does.

The person was talking about the platform monopoly that may arise in the future from buying up the third party publishers one by one. You're here talking about releasing all the games that they bought on other platforms, missing the point that that's the whole argument, what if they don't.
 
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Cheezewizz said:
Are you just trying to be wrong with every post today or what? Are you trying for some Gaf record or streak or something?

I shouldn't have to repeatedly translate basic fucking English as well as elementary level reading comprehension because you apparently can't grasp it. Since when is your lack of ability my responsibility?

He said that if MS were to acquire every 3rd party publisher, that MS still wouldn't be a monopoly.

I said well If they acquired EVERY 3rd party then yeah, they really would be a monopoly. Theyd have monopolized third party publishers.

Now that's a very boiled down version of our convo, but that's really the gist of it. The take of MS acquiring every 3rd party publisher isn't and never was mine. I engaged with it for a couple of posts, and then stated that it was a ridiculous What-if scenario to begin with.

And then your silly ass came along telling me what silly take I had and what a silly example I've got.

It wasn't my take. Let me repeat this again in case you're still not sure. It wasn't my take.

And just to be sure one last time. Just in case you're still struggling to grasp simple sentences with simple words... It wasn't my take.

Got it? Now run along before you fail to comprehend something else.
Click to expand...

Cheezewizz said:
While it was obviously a joke, I just can't help but point out that...

If deal caused Sony to go bankrupt, would my PS5 appreciate or depreciate?

Your answer assumes there would be a PS6.

For your sake, I really hope you're trying for some kind of reading comprehension streak record or something.
Click to expand...

Cheezewizz said:
What sort of silly take is this? Why would you believe that Sony would go bankrupt? Not only that, but why would you advise someone to not make their mortgage payment with their console. That's not even possible unless you know of one that accepts consoles for payment. Pretty dumb take you got here in my opinion.




Sorry, trying to see what it would feel like to be like you. Surprisingly, it was even worse than I thought.
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Holy replygasm...
FYI there is a multi-quote feature.
Got it? Now run along before you use too much big boy talk with your alt account.
 
feynoob said:
They are going to be another Amazon app store.
Play store and app store are very strong and a must for mobile users.
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A third party store doesn't have to be 'huge' to be worthwhile, it's like Google Search/Bing. Taking percentage points is still billion dollar gains.

I would hope that MS knows the limits of a third party store on ios/android.
 
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feynoob said:
They are going to be another Amazon app store.
Play store and app store are very strong and a must for mobile users.
Click to expand...

The would likely strike a deal with Samsung like they have for Office, Onedrive, etc. There is a now 2yr old Bloomberg and Reuters report that Samsung may be planning to kill the Galaxy Store. Google were in talks with them to pay them to use Google Assistant and Play Store only. MS will likely come in with a big bag of cash (like always) and try and get Samsung to adopt their store as default.
 
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feynoob said:
MS will also lose users from PS who will not buy Xbox, which means they are losing money in the process, compared to leaving the game on PS.

CMA is relying on the idea that MS would benefit from exclusivity, however they need to also focus on the loss side.

If there are 10m PS users who play COD, and only 6m of those went to xbox, MS would lose 4m sales, as those users are not going to buy xbox.
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That's not how this works. Microsoft wouldn't lose 4 million in sales since those 4 million people were never giving Microsoft money in the first place.
 
thicc_girls_are_teh_best said:
Not true. Someone buying an Xbox also represents someone who could in practice move their gaming purchasing habits to the Xbox ecosystem for 3P software (especially considering how prolific crossplay is now becoming), which translates to lost revenue for Sony.
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You said "could in practice" but what you describe is "could in theory." It's an analysis based solely on conjecture and it's an incorrect analysis. Not making a sale is not the same thing as losing money. None of these companies are guaranteed a sale. And even if someone buys an Xbox for COD that doesn't mean they just throw their PlayStation in the trash. And even if they do Sony still made what they made on it.

For Sony to lose $500 on a console and $60 per year on Gold if someone switches to Xbox Sony would have had to pay for the person's Xbox and Gold purchase. Sony could sell fewer PlayStation systems and and copies of Call of Duty if someone switches, but if the only game someone plays is Call of Duty Sony probably doesn't profit off of that person, anyway.
 
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Three said:
The would likely strike a deal with Samsung like they have for Office, Onedrive, etc. There is a now 2yr old Bloomberg and Reuters report that Samsung may be planning to kill the Galaxy Store. Google were in talks with them to pay them to use Google Assistant and Play Store only. MS will likely come in with a big bag of cash (like always) and try and get Samsung to adopt their store as default.
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Samsung store is much bigger than what MS is going to make. So I doubt Samsung would strike a deal with MS.
You need key apps and games to make a store like that.

Roxkis_ii said:
Didn't they already try that? Is the difference just being on android? Sounds like they maybe making their own Android fork like Amazon..
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The issue is the content. Amazon store is lacking key content that can attract general mobile users. Same with Samsung store.

IFireflyl said:
That's not how this works. Microsoft wouldn't lose 4 million in sales since those 4 million people were never giving Microsoft money in the first place.
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Those 4m are a loss to MS, because they aren't going to buy COD games.
MS is going to lose COD customers, and that is a loss for them, just like how them gaining profits is also due to COD.

It doesn't work with 1 way.
 
Heisenberg007 said:
Tom Warren weakening the ABK case for Microsoft lol

2Mn0BtK.jpg


Apple migh join the regulatory opposition camp against the ABK deal.
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Probably way too late and none of the regulators imo would care cause there is probably less of a weaker case re mobile app distribution.

Whilst the narrative that Warren is weakening the case with this article is interesting not sure it's particularly true.
 
reksveks said:
Probably way too late and none of the regulators imo would care cause there is probably less of a weaker case re mobile app distribution.

Whilst the narrative that Warren is weakening the case with this article is interesting not sure it's particularly true.
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Specifically highlighting ABK content (which may go exclusive to Xbox mobile store) can cause problems for Microsoft, don't you think? At least from a public sentiment and PR or future strategy perspective.
 
feynoob said:
Those 4m are a loss to MS, because they aren't going to buy COD games.
MS is going to lose COD customers, and that is a loss for them, just like how them gaining profits is also due to COD.

It doesn't work with 1 way.
Click to expand...

That's not the issue though. The issue is whether the loss is worth it. If they make Call of Duty exclusive then that loss could be acceptable if the amount of people who switch to Xbox and PC for Call of Duty is high enough. That's where the CMA came through and said that Microsoft would have incentive to foreclose on Call of Duty, because according to their poll the amount of players that Microsoft would gain would outweigh the amount of sales lost from PlayStation-exclusive users. You can't look at it from a lens that Microsoft is losing X. You also have to consider that Microsoft is also gaining Y.
 
Heisenberg007 said:
Specifically highlighting ABK content (which may go exclusive to Xbox mobile store) can cause problems for Microsoft, don't you think? At least from a public sentiment and PR or future strategy perspective.
Click to expand...
Re: public sentiment, not sure anyone care personally especially since no one knows what strategy MS will take. I suspect that they are going to replicate what they are doing with Samsung store specific versions of apps and/or having GP benefits exclusive to the MS store version. feynoob feynoob remember that the Xbox gamepass app via the Samsung store is different to the Android so I wouldn't count out Samsung supporting the MS store out completely. Its all about expectations/roi.

Future strategy maybe but its rather too speculative, the potential SLC on mobile is imo too unlikely, an MS store on mobile isnt going to grow beyond 10% of app store revenue.
 
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IFireflyl said:
That's not the issue though. The issue is whether the loss is worth it. If they make Call of Duty exclusive then that loss could be acceptable if the amount of people who switch to Xbox and PC for Call of Duty is high enough. That's where the CMA came through and said that Microsoft would have incentive to foreclose on Call of Duty, because according to their poll the amount of players that Microsoft would gain would outweigh the amount of sales lost from PlayStation-exclusive users. You can't look at it from a lens that Microsoft is losing X. You also have to consider that Microsoft is also gaining Y.
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And that is the problem with the poll.
Globally, COD has a higher userbase on PS, and the numbers of those losses would skyrocket once you calculate global loss.
UK users aren't the only one that is going to impacted.

There is also mtx and dlcs. I don't know if the CMA considered that, considering it's a large amount of activitision money.

So add base game sales plus dlc/mtx/battle bases. All those adds up to a huge amount of money.
 
feynoob said:
And that is the problem with the poll.
Globally, COD has a higher userbase on PS, and the numbers of those losses would skyrocket once you calculate global loss.
UK users aren't the only one that is going to impacted.

There is also mtx and dlcs. I don't know if the CMA considered that, considering it's a large amount of activitision money.

So add base game sales plus dlc/mtx/battle bases. All those adds up to a huge amount of money.
Click to expand...


Bt they are keeping COD on PS though
 
t
Cheezewizz said:
What sort of silly take is this? Why would you believe that Sony would go bankrupt? Not only that, but why would you advise someone to not make their mortgage payment with their console. That's not even possible unless you know of one that accepts consoles for payment. Pretty dumb take you got here in my opinion.




Sorry, trying to see what it would feel like to be like you. Surprisingly, it was even worse than I thought.
Click to expand...

T Three Has brought more insight and contributed to this debate than most. Don't be disrespectful just because you disagree over what is essentially a mute point.

That's a juvenile way to carry yourself.
 
feynoob said:
And that is the problem with the poll.
Globally, COD has a higher userbase on PS, and the numbers of those losses would skyrocket once you calculate global loss.
UK users aren't the only one that is going to impacted.

There is also mtx and dlcs. I don't know if the CMA considered that, considering it's a large amount of activitision money.

So add base game sales plus dlc/mtx/battle bases. All those adds up to a huge amount of money.
Click to expand...

And again: the CMA does not consider global losses. The CMA only cares about the U.K., just like the FTC only cares about the U.S. As I stated, the amount of money that Microsoft would gain each year from new customers by making Call of Duty exclusive is, at a minimum, approximately $120/year per customer, plus 100% of the micro-transaction revenue. This is assuming that every customer simply uses Game Pass ($9.99/month) and that they don't outright purchase Call of Duty. That would increase Microsoft's revenue. But assuming that that doesn't happen, Microsoft would be making $120/year plus 100% of micro-transaction revenue for all customers who move from PlayStation to Xbox. If they keep Call of Duty on PlayStation, those customers would get them ~$49/year (70% of a $70 game) plus 70% of all micro-transactions. Just in the subscription service alone, Microsoft would be making almost three times what they would (per subscriber) by foreclosing than they would by keeping Call of Duty multi-platform.

Let's say that there are 10,000,000 PlayStation users that are consistent Call of Duty players.

10,000,000 * $49 = $490,000,000.

Let's say that 1/4th of those users move to Xbox:

2,500,000 * $120 = $300,000,000

PlayStation made up $1,370,000,000 of revenue for Activision/Blizzard in 2020. By foreclosing on Call of Duty, Microsoft would not only make back a good chunk of the money lost via conversions, but they would also get 100% of all micro-transaction profits (both from existing and converted/new Xbox users).

This is basic math that shows that Microsoft has an incentive to foreclose on Call of Duty. They might make more money by not foreclosing, but by foreclosing they are still getting a huge chunk of the overall money spent on Call of Duty, and they are incentivizing people to move to Xbox next generation, and they are causing their primary competitor to lose money. From a business stand-point, foreclosure with a virtually insignificant decrease in overall profits actually looks better than keeping the title multi-platform. Additionally, there is less development cost as they wouldn't need to make a native PlayStation version of the game.
 
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IFireflyl said:
Wait, what happened?
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Two replies to same message
Cheezewizz said:
While it was obviously a joke, I just can't help but point out that...

If deal caused Sony to go bankrupt, would my PS5 appreciate or depreciate?

Your answer assumes there would be a PS6.

For your sake, I really hope you're trying for some kind of reading comprehension streak record or something.
Click to expand...

Cheezewizz said:
What sort of silly take is this? Why would you believe that Sony would go bankrupt? Not only that, but why would you advise someone to not make their mortgage payment with their console. That's not even possible unless you know of one that accepts consoles for payment. Pretty dumb take you got here in my opinion.




Sorry, trying to see what it would feel like to be like you. Surprisingly, it was even worse than I thought.
Click to expand...
 
Not quite understanding why Microsoft would need to buy Candy Crush or Call of Duty to start their own store. Are they planning on removing these games from other app stores?
 
unless they move office to microsoft store i don't see a point
and COD mobile is done by tencent not activision , why do they need to buy them?
 
IFireflyl said:
And again: the CMA does not consider global losses. The CMA only cares about the U.K., just like the FTC only cares about the U.S. As I stated, the amount of money that Microsoft would gain each year from new customers by making Call of Duty exclusive is, at a minimum, approximately $120/year per customer, plus 100% of the micro-transaction revenue. This is assuming that every customer simply uses Game Pass ($9.99/month) and that they don't outright purchase Call of Duty. That would increase Microsoft's revenue. But assuming that that doesn't happen, Microsoft would be making $120/year plus 100% of micro-transaction revenue for all customers who move from PlayStation to Xbox. If they keep Call of Duty on PlayStation, those customers would get them ~$49/year (70% of a $70 game) plus 70% of all micro-transactions. Just in the subscription service alone, Microsoft would be making almost three times what they would (per subscriber) by foreclosing than they would by keeping Call of Duty multi-platform.

Let's say that there are 10,000,000 PlayStation users that are consistent Call of Duty players.

10,000,000 * $49 = $490,000,000.

Let's say that 1/4th of those users move to Xbox:

2,500,000 * $120 = $300,000,000

PlayStation made up $1,370,000,000 of revenue for Activision/Blizzard in 2020. By foreclosing on Call of Duty, Microsoft would not only make back a good chunk of the money lost via conversions, but they would also get 100% of all micro-transaction profits (both from existing and converted/new Xbox users).

This is basic math that shows that Microsoft has an incentive to foreclose on Call of Duty. They might make more money by not foreclosing, but by foreclosing they are still getting a huge chunk of the overall money spent on Call of Duty, and they are incentivizing people to move to Xbox next generation, and they are causing their primary competitor to lose money. From a business stand-point, foreclosure with a virtually insignificant decrease in overall profits actually looks better than keeping the title multi-platform. Additionally, there is less development cost as they wouldn't need to make a native PlayStation version of the game.
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So essentially, CMA is using MS tactics by narrowing it down to their country and not consider the impact that would have globally.

I guess we can consider CoD a UK game then.
 
feynoob said:
So essentially, CMA is using MS tactics by narrowing it down to their country and not consider the impact that would have globally.

I guess we can consider CoD a UK game then.
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Well they are the UK regulator..... Come on man did have your coffee yet?
 
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