Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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AC Black Flag was the last ubi game I wanted to play. I tried the AC set in Egypt and realized it was forcing me down a P2W strategy, so abandoned it. Got Valhalla of the PS+ tier for free and it was so uninspired I didn't make it past the second act.

I think Microsoft will purchase UBI soon but in that instance, Sony wont make any regulatory complaints about it.
Assassin's creed is like Call of Duty to me, I'll grab one every 5 or more years. I did AC 1 and 2, Black Flag, then Origins. I'll probably grab the Samurai/Ninja one when it comes out.

Not sure a Ubisoft acquisition is worth the headache. Not only was it named as a "Big 4" AAA publisher, so it would probably have similar regulatory hurdles, but Ubisoft is bloated. You'd be buying a rotting apple, you'd have to carve away the shit bits to get anything nutritional. Which optically, gutting a company after buying it isn't good.
 
People keep bringing up developers vs publishers but it doesn't seem like most here actually know the difference. The only difference is a Publisher also has a marketing department and will find ways to sell the game. That's basically it. Publisher is nothing without good developers.
Narratives be narrating

Interesting how all these "semantics" come out... now.
 
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You completely fabricated the scenario basically.

Where did the guy mention blocking out Sony?

Ah yes, my apologies, all this political lobbying and noise is being done at this level for the fun of it.

Believe me, if Microsoft could find a way/reason for them to outright ban Sony products on home soil at the moment then they would. It's pretty much all they have left at the moment because nothing else is working, not that it isn't their own fault.
 
I think we can agree that Game Pass is the best deal in gaming. Is so insane that is unbelievable to think that is not convincing 90%+ of the install base already.

you could do all the math you want. clearly is the best value for money. You, the consumer, are always going to win with services like games pass (value wise).

All of this is not even taking CoD into consideration...and yet, its growth has slowed.

is perfectly reasonable to think that 100% of CoD players will look at the unbetable value inside GP for their access to the CoD right? it just doesn't make any logical sense to buy CoD anymore.

let's assume this pans out. how many new subscribers will sign in to GP. 30, 40 M? This is what Pachter "predicted": 100 M subscribers for GP at the end of the year:

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flawless logic a slam dunk...and just like that 🫰 MS's wishes and ambitions are granted and accomplished. we won boys, time to party 🎉🥳!!!

Do you actually believe is going to be this easy?

on paper you could say....
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such a masterful plan. and why wouldn't right?

well, this case scenario perfectly executed is not going to be enough for MS.

we have two case studies: Netflix and Disney+

Long story short, they keep spending insane amounts of money every year.
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and even Disney with 100 years of history, such a juggernaut in the entertainment industry, diversified and shit:

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even Netflix is scrambling to keep numbers going up/not lose them:
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Bob Iger and David Zaslav talked about the importance of the traditional distribution model (the importance of
exclusivity windows). This model in gaming looks roughly like this:

physical > price cut > reach sub-services

the company makes money in each step. game pass trying to undermine that is such a massive mistake.

Now, you could talk about business models and strategies but at the end of the day:

content is always going to be king. and good content takes time and money:
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at odds with the Game Pass model which requires the biggest volume of subscribers to deliver the promise of "Day One First Party Games" which is failing to gain due to the lack of such quality content and its schedule of releases.

volume is the key:
volume of subscribers
Volume of High-quality Games.

is simply not possible.
Games=/=movies.

Games take time to finish, they aren't 1 hours watch time.
You get around 12-24 games a month for the service, or around 144-288 games a year.

The main issue is satisfying such a diverse gamers that are subbed to the service. Some want rpg games, some want AAA games, some want shooter games, etc. Meeting a demand like that is hard, which why you need more games, compared to only focusing on quality games.

Disney failed, because they wanted to cash on the hype of avengers and star wars. Not subscription problem, but their issue of chasing their shadows (diversity bulshit, instead of actually delivering what people wanted).

Netflix is doing everything they can to make people leave their service. From canceling new shows to going in to bad length like password sharing.

As for gamepass long term subs, It depends on what MS wants to focus on.
Console has a ceiling, which is around 50m (PS+). Their PC approach is shit, which is making it hard for PC gamers to sub to gamepass.
If you put gamepass on steam, the sub count will explode, because people won't have time to deal with PC app bullshit fiasco anymore.

In essence, focusing on diversity of games (rpg, shooter, racing, indie, AAA games) will make your service attract. Not that bullshit high quality games. There are games with shit quality that has more userbase, because people enjoy them. It's all about what people like.
 
AC Black Flag was the last ubi game I wanted to play. I tried the AC set in Egypt and realized it was forcing me down a P2W strategy, so abandoned it. Got Valhalla of the PS+ tier for free and it was so uninspired I didn't make it past the second act.

I think Microsoft will purchase UBI soon but in that instance, Sony wont make any regulatory complaints about it.
Ubisoft has 20 studios, which is a lot. With a financial power of MS, it will be a disaster for Sony, if MS bought them.
While their games aren't up to past standards, it doesn't change the fact that they can pump out a lot of games at a faster pace with their studios number.
 
IMO this third place works as an argument they've constructed while they buy them up. But they know they can compete now with what they have. They're waiting for these to go through in this short period and they're putting in very little effort to compete right now. They can legally pull or degrade some of the biggest games out there after all this.

Some people who want this to go through are adamant they would never but I'm not so sure. For example they should ask in court about the Minecraft raytracing preview that 'accidentally' got sent out to Xbox Series S and X in March 2022 then pulled for some reason. Was that in active development or ever planned for PS? Once this goes through would that magically reappear as only on xbox? These are the questions they should be asking to find out if this is all a ruruse.
Is amazing the capacity that people have to try to pass opinions as hard facts, setting in stone what a multitrillion dollar company trying to gain market share will surely do with their IPs and what the regulatory agencies will surely do in future aquisitions scenarios, all are experts and/or share holders with inside knowledge you would think and all work with this agencies and know exactly how they will behave ... the little amount of self awareness and humbleness you see in this discussions based solely on freaking opinions is baffling
 
Is amazing the capacity that people have to try to pass opinions as hard facts, setting in stone what a multitrillion dollar company trying to gain market share will surely do with their IPs and what the regulatory agencies will surely do in future aquisitions scenarios, all are experts and/or share holders with inside knowledge you would think and all work with this agencies and know exactly how they will behave ... the little amount of self awareness and humbleness you see in this discussions based solely on freaking opinions is baffling
You are one to talk about this, especially when you do the same thing that you are breaching about.
 
In order to change something you need a legitimate reason and support. FTC with their actions alienated even those who supported them. Why? Because their actions are unreasonable, ineffective and not popular.
That's why I brought up age of democracies - the wisdom enshrined in those laws with each legal test they pass or fail is typically proportional to the laws age while relevant.

Your "legitimate reason" will also be after the anti-competitive action, and too late to act, because the law isn't pre-emptive in the US for such things. So there will never be a "legitimate reason" on those grounds - even if Microsoft buys ATVI and then tried to buy EA, T2, Ubisoft.

As people have already stated about the Netscape reference some pages back, that case changed the way anti-competitive regulation works in Europe because they had seen nothing like it before - and look who was the company involved. The CMA/CAT setup for regulation places common sense in its tools going by the link I posted some pages back, common sense that can pre-emptively handle more situations than just backwards looking laws short of the required precedence until it is too late.

In a big union of states you probably think their actions are unreasonable and you sound like you would have backed ARM being bought by Nvidia. In the UK regulators have more support for things; like Ofcom setting limits on price vs quality of service for Mobile and broadband is highly enjoyed by the UK public, and probably wouldn't be considered over zealous if those regulations were tightened further, especially for energy producer profits in the current cost of living changes, there was no public outcry for the ARM deal being blocked in the UK, just like most regulator decisions most people don't care, trust regulation or actively support regulation, and more of it. Seems like that's a difference of perspective we won't bridge.
 
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I'm also British, and one of the most mystifying things in this entire thread has been your consistent opinion that the UK is some kind of shining example of fairness, morality and proud knights in shining armour fighting for consumer protection when it comes to business regulation.

It's not, never has been and never will be. It won't be here either.

The quoted post is particularly condescending too. The UK is a complete mess at the moment - so is the US to be be fair, but people in glass countries shouldn't throw stones…

"Wisdom of an old democracy"? Seriously?
/s
Thanks for your reply; except you strawman it with a political based commentary about the state of the UK, you then attacked the poster rather than the argument

how are laws that are all formed from looking backwards to set precedence ever going to be an effective means to regulate against anti-competitive actions where mega-corporations are already ahead of the laws that exist?

and with the part of the argument you insightfully added "seriously?" you clearly didn't understand the point.

Wisdom of an old democracy comes from the laws being tested for longer, and the wisdom of those that preside on the rulings gets enshrined in those laws. Older democracy, older laws, more tests, more enshrined wisdom. If you still disagree with that after me breaking the point down for you, well whatever...
 
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Is amazing the capacity that people have to try to pass opinions as hard facts, setting in stone what a multitrillion dollar company trying to gain market share will surely do with their IPs and what the regulatory agencies will surely do in future aquisitions scenarios, all are experts and/or share holders with inside knowledge you would think and all work with this agencies and know exactly how they will behave ... the little amount of self awareness and humbleness you see in this discussions based solely on freaking opinions is baffling
Honestly, I have no problem with people sharing their opinion or even speculating. I have more of a problem with those who just ignore things or brush them aside for a strawman to stan for companies. The minecraft raytracing update is a good example of possible interoperability issues and a lesser versions if it were to release.

Why people think that's irrelevant, "their IP so different", "just a mode", use a strawman with "what about VR" when xbox doesn't even have a VR base to sell to instead is beyond me. They might have even been making a raytracing mode for PS too but these angry retorts to a question aren't addressing the issue that there might be a lesser version and MS are using Minecraft as an example there wouldn't be.
 
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Honestly, I have no problem with people sharing their opinion or even speculating. I have more of a problem with those who just ignore things or brush them aside for a strawman to stan for companies. The minecraft raytracing update is a good example of possible interoperability issues and a lesser versions if it were to release.

Why people think that's irrelevant, "their IP", "just a mode", use a strawman with "what about VR" when xbox doesn't even have a VR base to sell to instead is beyond me. They might have even been making a raytracing mode for PS too but these angry retorts to a question aren't addressing the issue that there might be a lesser version and MS are using Minecraft as an example there wouldn't be.
Lack information makes people form their own information.
All of us here probably have 1%-5% of the information, while these company have the rest.
Plus most information are those that have been circulated the internet.
 
SC already paving the way for MS / ABK to start challenging FTC's, if needed.

Though I have a feeling CMA and EC's results will also influence FTC (if they approve).


 
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SC already paving the way for MS / ABK to start challenging FTC's, if needed.

Though I have a feeling CMA and EC's results will also influence FTC (if they approve).




I don't think anyone honestly expected the FTC to be anything more than a speedbump, save for a couple hopefuls. Even without this development.
 
Quoting @icon_era is a bad sign re the validity of any argument in my opinion but ehh.

Also what is the whole list of tweets supposing to indicate? What's the statistical significance of it?
 
That's why I brought up age of democracies - the wisdom enshrined in those laws with each legal test they pass or fail is typically proportional to the laws age while relevant.

Your "legitimate reason" will also be after the anti-competitive action, and too late to act, because the law isn't pre-emptive in the US for such things. So there will never be a "legitimate reason" on those grounds - even if Microsoft buys ATVI and then tried to buy EA, T2, Ubisoft.

As people have already stated about the Netscape reference some pages back, that case changed the way anti-competitive regulation works in Europe because they had seen nothing like it before - and look who was the company involved. The CMA/CAT setup for regulation places common sense in its tools going by the link I posted some pages back, common sense that can pre-emptively handle more situations than just backwards looking laws short of the required precedence until it is too late.

In a big union of states you probably think their actions are unreasonable and you sound like you would have backed ARM being bought by Nvidia. In the UK regulators have more support for things; like Ofcom setting limits on price vs quality of service for Mobile and broadband is highly enjoyed by the UK public, and probably wouldn't be considered over zealous if those regulations were tightened further, especially for energy producer profits in the current cost of living changes, there was no public outcry for the ARM deal being blocked in the UK, just like most regulator decisions most people don't care, trust regulation or actively support regulation, and more of it. Seems like that's a difference of perspective we won't bridge.
You mentioned Netscape and ARM deal. That's like two out of two bingo cards of "I have no idea how competition laws work".
The irony of Netscape though is that what regulators fought against essentially amounted to nothing as history showed us that "browser in OS" was not the only window to the Internet.
 
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Season 2 Lol GIF by Insecure on HBO


The fact that politicians who clearly don't have a clue what they are getting embroiled just makes this circus all the more entertaining.

More investigations need to be done on Sony for their anti competitive practices not just in Japan but throughout the world. Maybe I should write to my congressmen to make some noise.
 
Honestly, I have no problem with people sharing their opinion or even speculating. I have more of a problem with those who just ignore things or brush them aside for a strawman to stan for companies. The minecraft raytracing update is a good example of possible interoperability issues and a lesser versions if it were to release.

Why people think that's irrelevant, "their IP so different", "just a mode", use a strawman with "what about VR" when xbox doesn't even have a VR base to sell to instead is beyond me. They might have even been making a raytracing mode for PS too but these angry retorts to a question aren't addressing the issue that there might be a lesser version and MS are using Minecraft as an example there wouldn't be.
Completely agree, the MO seems to be shutdown - by any means - all dissenting points of conversation to this acquisition that could be the foundation of fair arguments against the acquisition.

I raise the Minecraft RT issue hundreds of pages ago, long before PlayStation pointing to Microsoft damaging the image of PlayStation hardware with lesser versions, and just like when you've tried to discuss it in good faith with evidence supporting your point, it was quickly drowned out/hand waved away.

Look at ChuckeRearmed ChuckeRearmed last response to me, no intention to actually discuss is present, because it adds exposure to valid criticism of the deal and the US system to oppose it.
 
Ah yes, my apologies, all this political lobbying and noise is being done at this level for the fun of it.

Believe me, if Microsoft could find a way/reason for them to outright ban Sony products on home soil at the moment then they would. It's pretty much all they have left at the moment because nothing else is working, not that it isn't their own fault.
Ok I totally believe you. A politician was mentioned and now you saying MS would ban Sony?

Maybe, but what's that got to do with a senator questioning Sony about business practice. That equals a ban from the US market I guess? Yep totally believe you.
 
Ah yes, my apologies, all this political lobbying and noise is being done at this level for the fun of it.

Believe me, if Microsoft could find a way/reason for them to outright ban Sony products on home soil at the moment then they would. It's pretty much all they have left at the moment because nothing else is working, not that it isn't their own fault.
And Huawei was considered a national security threat by US intelligence. I know we take gaming pretty serious here on GAF but it doesn't quite meet the same level threat as our national infrastructure.
 
Honestly, I have no problem with people sharing their opinion or even speculating. I have more of a problem with those who just ignore things or brush them aside for a strawman to stan for companies. The minecraft raytracing update is a good example of possible interoperability issues and a lesser versions if it were to release.

Why people think that's irrelevant, "their IP so different", "just a mode", use a strawman with "what about VR" when xbox doesn't even have a VR base to sell to instead is beyond me. They might have even been making a raytracing mode for PS too but these angry retorts to a question aren't addressing the issue that there might be a lesser version and MS are using Minecraft as an example there wouldn't be.

You're doing what you're asking others not to do with the minecraft example here, creating a strawman. There has been no indication from anything related to whatever's been put out for Minecraft so far that if it gets an official RT update, the PS5 won't get that update either. They are, to the best of my understanding, content and feature wise, the same. The half cooked console preview fork was quickly taken off as clearly it is not ready or meant for a public release at this point, if ever.

"What if x happens at y time". You can't reasonably expect people to have an actual discussion on hypotheticals like that. Should that be brought up in court discussions like you said? Sure, why not. But there's no precedent for Minecraft like this this so it'll be quickly over. Discussions about things like MS possibly foreclosing IP after an acquisition are bigger topics and are getting their due diligence. CMA have recently concluded that MS has no reason to foreclose, so that's where we're at on that topic at this moment, unless something else happens or they decide to revise their conclusions.
 
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You're doing what you're asking others not to do with the minecraft example here, creating a strawman. There has been no indication from anything related to whatever's been put out for Minecraft so far that if it gets an official RT update, the PS5 won't get that update either. They are, to the best of my understanding, content and feature wise, the same. The half cooked console preview fork was quickly taken off as clearly it is not ready or meant for a public release at this point, if ever.
That's why I said they should ask in court to determine this. There is no strawman. MS are saying it doesn't lead to partial foreclosure (degraded quality) and using Minecraft as an example of this. The court can determine this by asking if a PS version was planned and whether the so called half cooked raytracing preview would ever see the light of day exclusively on xbox in the future like the 'accidental' march 2022 preview.

"What if x happens at y time". You can't reasonably expect people to have an actual discussion on hypotheticals like that. Should that be brought up in court discussions like you said? Sure, why not. But there's no precedent for Minecraft like this this so it'll be quickly over. Discussions about things like MS possibly foreclosing IP after an acquisition are bigger topics and are getting their due diligence. CMA have recently concluded that MS has no reason to foreclose, so that's where we're at on that topic at this moment, unless something else happens or they decide to revise their conclusions.
Partial foreclosure is a big topic too since it's what's being brought up as not possible or something they would do. I think it is.
 
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How do you support a hypothetical? Owning Activision gives Microsoft the ability to do what i wrote. Microsoft already pays riot for exclusive benefits in valorant and lol. Doing the same for COD makes even more sense when there is no marginal cost.

There's also no proof that "cod only" gamers would refuse a subscription service yet that is repeated in the thread. Do you have an issue with that assertion too?
It's stated not as a hypothetical but as a fact that CoD gamers only buy CoD and that's it. There could be data that supports or refutes this, I just don't think anyone who is making this statement actually has that data. I'm not arguing about strategy etc just it seems weird that we have all just accepted a statement as fact because it has been parroted enough, rather than because it is actually true.
 
It's stated not as a hypothetical but as a fact that CoD gamers only buy CoD and that's it. There could be data that supports or refutes this, I just don't think anyone who is making this statement actually has that data. I'm not arguing about strategy etc just it seems weird that we have all just accepted a statement as fact because it has been parroted enough, rather than because it is actually true.

Well, my penis being small has been parroted and is quite true. So, I may have a bias perspective on this that hits close to home.
 
That's why I said they should ask in court to determine this. There is no strawman. MS are saying it doesn't lead to partial foreclosure (degraded quality) and using Minecraft as an example of this. The court can determine this by asking if a PS version was planned and whether the so called half cooked raytracing preview would ever see the light of day exclusively on xbox in the future like the 'accidental' march 2022 preview.


Partial foreclosure is a big topic too since it's what's being brought up as not possible or something they would do. I think it is.
And im sure your upset sony got a vr version no other consoles got. A preview that was not even a full release is hardly foreclose. I think the courts time would be to see if Ryan's money hat world tour harmed competition using its 70% market share.
 
And im sure your upset sony got a vr version no other consoles got. A preview that was not even a full release is hardly foreclose. I think the courts time would be to see if Ryan's money hat world tour harmed competition using its 70% market share.
This is what I mean by the ridiculous strawman arguments. I mean I would be over the moon if other consoles had VR and could buy a VR version too but alas they don't have VR, so what are you saying?
 
This is what I mean by the ridiculous strawman arguments. I mean I would be over the moon if other consoles had VR and could buy a VR version too but alas they don't have VR, so what are you saying?

To be fair, games like RE Village and even VII still don't have VR modes on PC.
 
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