Sony has gotten 2 acquisitions done while Microsoft has been trying to get this one done. Now Microsoft is on the hook for $3B regardless of if they cancel the acquisition now or fight it until July. There's something to be gained by seeing what conclusions the rest of the regulatory bodies come to.
But 1-3 years in appeals? Not just appeals, but highly unlikely to work appeals? Tying up $70B in money that will just be depreciating. I think that would be foolish, however, no idea what/if there's anything Microsoft could do outside of appealing the decision to get the deal through.
Like restructuring their Gamepass tiers to more accurately reflect their true cloud gaming position in the market (I think they'll want to do this regardless). Idas also mentioned something about "ringfencing".
Just like there was a non-zero chance it got blocked today, there's a non-zero chance the appeal works. If you read some of the more in depth justification for the block it's all centered around the uncertainty of this emerging markets future. It could be argued that it's irrational to throw out all the Relevant Customer Benefits (RCBs) for unknown, possibly non-existent harms that have no evidence of happening.
Personally, I think they should carry on to July, restructure Gamepass tiers to reflect their actual cloud gaming position, do that to shore up future acquisitions' chance at success, and then go for some smaller acquisitions that won't meet as harsh regulatory scrutiny.
