feynoob
Banned
You are encouraging that kind behavior with this deal.
Discourage them.
Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)
- Status
Discourage them.
Riky
$MSFT
I have no influence over the deal, it happens or it doesn't. I think it just rests with the CAT now, they kill it dead or if it returns to the CMA I think it goes through with similar caveats to the EU acceptance.
feynoob
Banned
It's kinda dead. Cat won't change anything at all.
First major obstacle is approving the extension. If MS fails that, then the deal is basically dead.
Thirty7ven
Banned
Can't be with similar caveats to EC because CMA has dug its feet by publicly disagreeing with the EC. Their option was a block, a step down is divestment of AB, their second step down is divestment of A, their third divestment of COD.
Seems like there's a really big gap from their first option, to remedies similar to the EC that don't even contemplate micro-transactions. In fact the EC remedies don't address a lot of factors.
Bernoulli
M2 slut
NEXT KEY DATES:
- June 12th 2023: new case management conference in the CAT to set timing, evidence and more.
- June 21st 2023: final decision from the Competition Tribunal in South Africa.
- July 17th 2023: decision from New Zealand.
- July 18th 2023: The end of the second extension and final outside date in the merger agreement. ABK could quit by then and MS would have to pay a termination fee of $3,000,000,000. The parties could extended or even amend the merger agreement.
- Week of July 24th 2023: as soon as the CAT hearing could begin.
- August 2nd 2023: beginning of the FTC in-house trial.
- Late August/September 2023: decision from the CAT.
- Early 2024: decision from the FTC administrative law judge.
- Anything beyond: unknown
idas
- June 12th 2023: new case management conference in the CAT to set timing, evidence and more.
- June 21st 2023: final decision from the Competition Tribunal in South Africa.
- July 17th 2023: decision from New Zealand.
- July 18th 2023: The end of the second extension and final outside date in the merger agreement. ABK could quit by then and MS would have to pay a termination fee of $3,000,000,000. The parties could extended or even amend the merger agreement.
- Week of July 24th 2023: as soon as the CAT hearing could begin.
- August 2nd 2023: beginning of the FTC in-house trial.
- Late August/September 2023: decision from the CAT.
- Early 2024: decision from the FTC administrative law judge.
- Anything beyond: unknown
idas
feynoob
Banned
All that matters. The rest are moot.
MasterCornholio
Member
Well the CMA did reject those 10 year deals. A divestment is definitely a possibility with them.
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Well, Microsoft already met with the current chancellor. I don't see what a message from George Osborne is going to add.
Riky
$MSFT
Well the CMA did reject those 10 year deals. A divestment is definitely a possibility with them.
Depends if the CAT rules that as irrational, if so it's the CMA who need a new angle.
MasterCornholio
Member
Your not getting that before July the 17th. Also as you mentioned before other regulators have seen the cloud market as an issue. Its going to be difficult to go against them.
Riky
$MSFT
I don't think that date is relevant as ABK have already intervened as reported so there will be an extension. If MS can prove the market share claimed because of GPU members who may or may not use cloud gaming is flawed then the ruling is irrational. CMA will need a whole new argument and that won't be easy for them as they've accepted the console proportion already.
Like I said if the CAT returns this I see it going through in some form.
Anyway enough until that decision for me, we have an actual Games showcase today which is far more interesting to me.
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Topher
Identifies as young
Not necessarily. As the ruling clearly says, the decision was not based on current market share. So saying the ruling is irrational based on that doesn't make any sense. The CMA can change the calculation of current market share and come back with the exact same decision. They have done so before.
GHG
Member
MasterCornholio
Member
I don't know it seems like there's a higher chance of Microsoft being ruled as irrational than than the CMA. Especially after they accepted their calculations.
Pelta88
Member
Ultimately, and in a move that'd bring this attempted acquisition full circle... I think Kotic is Microsoft's biggest threat to this deal. Crucially, when Microsoft made the offer, ATVI's stock price had plunged dramtically and they were in the midst of a PR nightmare.
Since then the stock price has recovered with many analysts predicting that ATVI could break through/out Microsofts' offer within the next 2 quarters. And in addition, Microsoft has to pay ATVI 3 Billion for failure to close the deal by the predetermined date.
Since then the stock price has recovered with many analysts predicting that ATVI could break through/out Microsofts' offer within the next 2 quarters. And in addition, Microsoft has to pay ATVI 3 Billion for failure to close the deal by the predetermined date.
feynoob
Banned
Kotick isnt going to get that 3b, but the company will. However if he extends it, he will get more money from his stock. His parachute money was estimated around $350+m when the deal started.
PaintTinJr
Member
CMA Investigations
The Competition and Markets authority (CMA) was created in 2013 with the mission to strengthening business competition and preventing and reducing anti-competitive activities.
www.hickmanandrose.co.uk
"Combining the responsibilities of the former Competition Commission and the Office for Fair Trading, the CMA investigates and prosecutes cases concerning consumer protection, commercial cartels and other anti-competitive behaviour such as market manipulation and price fixing.
Although the majority of their powers are derived from civil law, the CMA has the power to bring criminal proceedings.
Hickman & Rose have significant experience representing companies and individuals in the civil and criminal context who are subject to CMA investigations and enforcement."
Microsoft trying to breach the CMA orders could result in criminal proceedings, which in the UK can have virtually limitless negative impact on a business.
I firmly believe if Microsoft attempt to close the deal without CMA clearance it will be the last action of Microsoft as we've known them for the last +30years because UK actions will trigger universally backed US government intervention, most likely, and them being declawed like AT&T/Cable and Wireless were.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
What is this June 12th meeting? Didn't CAT in the last meeting say that trial will begin on July 24th (?)
Topher
Identifies as young
I believe that is a follow up meeting to discuss what types of evidence will be allowed. There was some debate, as I recall, over the use of "expert witnesses".
It's a case management meeting to set schedule and procedure. The actual hearing starts July 24th.
MasterCornholio
Member
Then there's the renegotiation that should take place before the 17th. Well only if ABK is still interested in this. Microsoft can't force them to extend.
"I respect that, and we will, I am sure, hear more on how the factual and expert evidence can be dealt with by the CMA at a second case management conference, which will take place on 12 June. That is just under two weeks' time, and is a date which I am going
to fix, so that the very difficult questions regarding factual and expert evidence can be dealt with finally at that stage."
page 60.
dibella360
Banned
Does anyone know what time the CAT thing will be tomorrow and if it will be live streamed
willothedog
Member
What was the CMA doing during covid when all the lucrative PPE etc contracts went to friends & family of MPs?
demigod
Member
Here comes a new Shillenger!!!
Wulfer
Member
You forgot to add the date Sony loses marketing rights to COD because future deals can't be made until this is resolved!
Ar¢tos
Member
Was there a merger or acquisition involved?
It's basically the same as asking why school teachers don't stop bank robberies.
Bernoulli
M2 slut
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Bernoulli
M2 slut
They ruined everything
MasterCornholio
Member
At least we will have a transcript afterwards. But yes turning a court procedure into a joke is disrespectful. And all for console warring I might add.
cornonthecrobb
Banned
still not going through though is it... time to kill it noow please
drganon
Member
Twitter was a mistake.
Bernoulli
M2 slut
link?
Mr Moose
Member
feynoob
Banned
Somebody tell them how it feels to be in a court.
It's not a fun place where you can laugh all day.
These people have no clue about real world.
cornonthecrobb
Banned
kill this now please... its over...
ZehDon
Member
I need to see a YouTube body language expert breakdown the footage, preferrable using lots of "science" phrases.
Topher
Identifies as young
Best to just leave it off. Twitter cannot help themselves.
cornonthecrobb
Banned
does anyone actually see this going through
CRAIG667
Member
Yes, I think the CMA will be given no option but to offer potential remedies in the end.
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