Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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Not open for further replies.
Reading this thread is amazing.

Pro deal: FTC is utterly fucking up this trial.
Against deal: Microsoft is totally incompetent.

Schrodinger's trial indeed.

Whatever the outcome, a lot of comments in this thread will not age well.
 
Zathalus said:
Reading this thread is amazing.

Pro deal: FTC is utterly fucking up this trial.
Against deal: Microsoft is totally incompetent.

Schrodinger's trial indeed.

Whatever the outcome, a lot of comments in this thread will not age well.
Click to expand...

I guess the only thing that matters is if the merger happens or not.
 
demigod said:
That wasn't what you said previously. All of you xbox fans thought ms left minecraft on playstation was because of the revenue. Until reality hit you in the face. There are no contracts with playstation currently that ms will leave cod on playstation. Just like phil and all the other lameducks that proved ms taking games away with Bethesda.
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No sir. Don't believe I ever said that. And saying "all you Xbox fans" and your general attitude lately makes me feel like your cracks are starting to show a bit. I think you need to take a break from all of this you seem to be overly invested in these silly console wars. Just breathe man it's all going to be ok, it's just video games.
 
DavJay said:
Seems Microsoft is winning this battle so far but you never know. Doesn't make sense it doesn't go through seeing how behind they are from Sony and Nintendo.
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FTC has a historic lost cause in the american cort/law system so almost nobody is expecting them to win, but yes who knows

To your second point, thats not how it works, you cant overcome incompetence with your daddys deep pockets and start buying out the competition without regulation. Remember is not xbox buying activision is microsoft, and microsoft is not far behind sony and nintendo on anything, MS could buy both tomorrow and implode them for a laugh.

Ms has more than enough studios to make great games and money to build comercial relationships with anyone they REALLY want. There's absolutely nothing stopping them from succeeding apart from their own short comings and mismanagement. And buying the biggest publisher in the industry is not going to change that.
 
James Sawyer Ford said:
Question - Why wouldn't the judge approve an injunction?

The FTC laid out a case of clear contradictory statements to the public vs. what they actually enacted months later after prior acquisitions. They have a clear intent to foreclose properties from consoles or cloud, in fact, that's exactly what they've done for ALL aquisitions barring ones that have contractual agreements not to.

I just don't see what legal harm there would be in granting an injunction.
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FTC needs to prove that there is imminent harm in not allowing the merger to go through without going through their process 1st.

That's a tall order and one that most other regulators don't have to fulfill in this particular way.

Zathalus said:
Reading this thread is amazing.

Pro deal: FTC is utterly fucking up this trial.
Against deal: Microsoft is totally incompetent.

Schrodinger's trial indeed.

Whatever the outcome, a lot of comments in this thread will not age well.
Click to expand...
It's basically a Rorschach test, everyone projects what they want/expect to see in it.
 
splattered said:
No sir. Don't believe I ever said that. And saying "all you Xbox fans" and your general attitude lately makes me feel like your cracks are starting to show a bit. I think you need to take a break from all of this you seem to be overly invested in these silly console wars. Just breathe man it's all going to be ok, it's just video games.
Click to expand...
Come on man, you kind of did:
splattered said:
Also no one will probably be willing to believe it but MS keeping COD multiplatform like Minecraft might have actually been their plan this entire time. It's an enormous franchise that brings in revenue from all sorts of angles just like Minecraft. Sony may have been crying about this the entire time making themselves look bad when they didn't actually have to.
Click to expand...

splattered said:
See Minecraft.

It's still basically a 3rd party game even though it's owned by Microsoft.

Call of Duty will most likely become the same under Microsoft.

People are worrying about that for no reason.
Click to expand...
 
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Ar¢tos said:
They can't close without CMA approval because the text of the acquisition deal demands the CMA approval. The only way to that is negotiating a new deal that doesn't require the CMA approval, but that would be stupid, because the CMA would still have authority over the deal since both MS and Activision operate in the UK, and that would lead to extreme fines in the UK and probable forced divesture.
Click to expand...
I'm pretty sure they can close without CMA approval. The text of the contract certainly doesn't 'demand' CMA approval it is a lot more vague than that, plus there is no reason that Activision would object to amending that part of the contract.
Now the legal and financial impact would be insane, I don't think anyone knows how that would turn out if they close without CMA approval and ultimately get rejected but it is not an impossibility to do it, this preliminary injunction trial is predicated on it being possible.
 
poppabk said:
I'm pretty sure they can close without CMA approval. The text of the contract certainly doesn't 'demand' CMA approval it is a lot more vague than that, plus there is no reason that Activision would object to amending that part of the contract.
Now the legal and financial impact would be insane, I don't think anyone knows how that would turn out if they close without CMA approval and ultimately get rejected but it is not an impossibility to do it, this preliminary injunction trial is predicated on it being possible.
Click to expand...
They can close the deal without the CMA approval, it's a matter if they want to do this. Pretty sure they will try to get it approved.
 
This trial has been fascinating to me. Hearing these guys answer questions under oath is much more interesting than the typical press interviews they do. It is also very funny how little the judge knows about the industry (ex: "Why not put Halo on Playstation?")

The framing around Stadia's death was so disingenuous. I'm sure I can't be the only one who remembers all the reports that came out around that time of Google lowballing the fuck out of everyone they talked to during negotiations. Surely that was one of their key issues since it resulted in a lack of available games
 
poppabk said:
I'm pretty sure they can close without CMA approval. The text of the contract certainly doesn't 'demand' CMA approval it is a lot more vague than that, plus there is no reason that Activision would object to amending that part of the contract.
Now the legal and financial impact would be insane, I don't think anyone knows how that would turn out if they close without CMA approval and ultimately get rejected but it is not an impossibility to do it, this preliminary injunction trial is predicated on it being possible.
Click to expand...

Is it this?

"United Kingdom. With respect to the United Kingdom, the parties intend to notify the merger to the Competition and Markets Authority, which we refer to as the "CMA," under the Enterprise Act 2002. The CMA may issue an order that, among other things, prevents the completion of the merger or prevents the integration of the parties' businesses. The practical effect of this is typically that the merger may not be completed until the merger has been notified to the CMA and the merging parties have obtained clearance. Microsoft and Activision Blizzard intend to file a formal notification as soon as is reasonably practicable."
 
Ar¢tos said:
They can't close without CMA approval because the text of the acquisition deal demands the CMA approval. The only way to that is negotiating a new deal that doesn't require the CMA approval, but that would be stupid, because the CMA would still have authority over the deal since both MS and Activision operate in the UK, and that would lead to extreme fines in the UK and probable forced divesture.
Click to expand...
Ooo that will be no problem, they will push the merge trough ignoring the CMA, MS pays the fines for the Xbox
Division they will leave the UK, short time later..they will be pushing Gamepass on all gaming platforms including Sony trough streaming all games from theyr own studios with the Cloud. (Sony will have no choice to let Gamepass on Playstation)
Then MS takes 90-10% from the yield from all does games.
Problem solved...easy peasy😉
 
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MasterCornholio said:
Is it this?

"United Kingdom. With respect to the United Kingdom, the parties intend to notify the merger to the Competition and Markets Authority, which we refer to as the "CMA," under the Enterprise Act 2002. The CMA may issue an order that, among other things, prevents the completion of the merger or prevents the integration of the parties' businesses. The practical effect of this is typically that the merger may not be completed until the merger has been notified to the CMA and the merging parties have obtained clearance. Microsoft and Activision Blizzard intend to file a formal notification as soon as is reasonably practicable."
Click to expand...
Yup. Notice the 'The practical effect of this is typically that...'
 
MasterCornholio said:
Yeah which can mean the appeal process. It's not like the sec filing doesn't mean anything.
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The passage is saying they would need to apply and get approval (which would include the appeal process) but the language is still deliberately vague. If Phil Spencer said on the stand that 'typically they wouldn't make CoD exclusive' everyone would known that it was double speak.
 
poppabk said:
The passage is saying they would need to apply and get approval (which would include the appeal process) but the language is still deliberately vague. If Phil Spencer said on the stand that 'typically they wouldn't make CoD exclusive' everyone would known that it was double speak.
Click to expand...

Regulatory conditions is a reason why it might get terminated.

Don't think the sec filing is useless like your suggesting. Saying that regulators matter when they really don't doesn't make sense to me.
 
MasterCornholio said:
Regulatory conditions is a reason why it might get terminated.

Don't think the sec filing is useless like your suggesting. Saying that regulators matter when they really don't doesn't make sense to me.
Click to expand...
Regulators obviously matter as they have massive power to impose their will on businesses and fine or otherwise impose sanctions on businesses that ignore their rulings. But companies don't even have to consult them before merging if they don't want to, just means they will be in for a world of hurt when the hammer finally falls.
 
poppabk said:
Regulators obviously matter as they have massive power to impose their will on businesses and fine or otherwise impose sanctions on businesses that ignore their rulings. But companies don't even have to consult them before merging if they don't want to, just means they will be in for a world of hurt when the hammer finally falls.
Click to expand...

Microsoft chose to consult them and made it a part of their sec filing. It certainly matters to them.
 
Zathalus said:
Reading this thread is amazing.

Pro deal: FTC is utterly fucking up this trial.
Against deal: Microsoft is totally incompetent.

Schrodinger's trial indeed.

Whatever the outcome, a lot of comments in this thread will not age well.
Click to expand...
Every analyst has said the FTC is performing poorly, even people not familiar with the law are finding the FTCs questioning to be ineffective. But that doesn't mean they've lost. As the old saying goes never bet on a judgement.

From what we can see MS is fairing well and the difficulty in attaining a PI for a vertical merger means the FTC has to bring it's A game, it looks like at least right now that the FTC is not meeting that bar.
 
tmlDan said:
felt like the guy from Google totally blacked out what happened during Stadia, I know for a fact 99% of product managers/leads would know who they considered competitors/emerging competitors and this guy seemed to have amnesia lol
Click to expand...
Yes that's very fishy. The dude talks about Stadia like it was the Atari Jaguar, as if it's some relic of the ancients.
 
MasterCornholio said:
Is it this?

"United Kingdom. With respect to the United Kingdom, the parties intend to notify the merger to the Competition and Markets Authority, which we refer to as the "CMA," under the Enterprise Act 2002. The CMA may issue an order that, among other things, prevents the completion of the merger or prevents the integration of the parties' businesses. The practical effect of this is typically that the merger may not be completed until the merger has been notified to the CMA and the merging parties have obtained clearance. Microsoft and Activision Blizzard intend to file a formal notification as soon as is reasonably practicable."
Click to expand...
Yea but MS is considering outright removing ABK from the UK and selling via distributors as the CMA doesn't have the power to ban products just acquisitions in it's jurisdiction. If the company being acquired is no longer in it's jurisdiction then there is no problem.
 
Gameplay Gods Bless said:
Every analyst has said the FTC is performing poorly, even people not familiar with the law are finding the FTCs questioning to be ineffective. But that doesn't mean they've lost. As the old saying goes never bet on a judgement.

From what we can see MS is fairing well and the difficulty in attaining a PI for a vertical merger means the FTC has to bring it's A game, it looks like at least right now that the FTC is not meeting that bar.
Click to expand...
Who are these analysts?
 
Gameplay Gods Bless said:
Yea but MS is considering outright removing ABK from the UK and selling via distributors as the CMA doesn't have the power to ban products just acquisitions in it's jurisdiction. If the company being acquired is no longer in it's jurisdiction then there is no problem.
Click to expand...

That's not accurate. Microsoft is still in the UK and the CMA has prohibited MS from acquiring ABK. If MS closes the deal then they will be sued by CMA. ABK not being in the UK anymore does not matter (just like Giphy and Meta), but there is no indication that MS is considering that as an option at all. MS is rumored to be looking into ways of closing despite the CMA, but whether they have actually found a path forward then they are willing to consider is unknown.
 
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Gameplay Gods Bless said:
Yea but MS is considering outright removing ABK from the UK and selling via distributors as the CMA doesn't have the power to ban products just acquisitions in it's jurisdiction. If the company being acquired is no longer in it's jurisdiction then there is no problem.
Click to expand...
We're not allowed to discuss politics but the mods allow nut case drivel like this.
 
Topher said:
That's not accurate. Microsoft is still in the UK and the CMA has prohibited MS from acquiring ABK. If MS closes the deal then they will be sued by CMA. ABK not being in the UK anymore does not matter (just like Giphy and Meta), but there is no indication that MS is considering that as an option at all. MS is rumored to be looking into ways of closing despite the CMA, but whether they have actually found a path forward then they are willing to consider is unknown.
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Just like Phil Spencer said he was looking for ways around Minecraft having to be 3rd party, but it's been almost a decade now.
 
Topher said:
That's not accurate. Microsoft is still in the UK and the CMA has prohibited MS from acquiring ABK. If MS closes the deal then they will be sued by CMA. ABK not being in the UK anymore does not matter (just like Giphy and Meta), but there is no indication that MS is considering that as an option at all. MS is rumored to be looking into ways of closing despite the CMA, but whether they have actually found a path forward then they are willing to consider is unknown.
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Wonder if one of the avenues they are looking at is cost of fines/being sued being much lower than the 2 billion fee they would have to pay Activision.
 
Iced Arcade said:
Wonder if one of the avenues they are looking at is cost of fines/being sued being much lower than the 2 billion fee they would have to pay Activision.
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If the acquisition is illegal then it isn't a matter of simply paying a fine though. Microsoft has to cease its illegal practice. That means divestment of ABK if they close in spite of the order. Breaking the law in the UK is probably not the wisest way to fight the prohibition, imo. Essentially they would be mocking the legal process and thumbing their nose at the entire country.

GIF by Giphy QA
 
Oh just a thought. Wondering if that was one of their options. since they said they are were looking at different solutions 💁

I don't know my own countries laws let alone the UK lol
 
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Topher said:
If the acquisition is illegal then it isn't a matter of simply paying a fine though. Microsoft has to cease its illegal practice. That means divestment of ABK if they close in spite of the order. Breaking the law in the UK is probably not the wisest way to fight the prohibition, imo. Essentially they would be mocking the legal process and thumbing their nose at the entire country.

GIF by Giphy QA
Click to expand...

Even Meta didn't bother going that route when it became clear the CMA wasn't going to budge. They relented and sold off their purchase for a huge loss, rather than try to fight the UK on it. Imagine anyone at Microsoft explaining to shareholders that they wanted to push through anyways and risk the company losing tens of billions and be empty-handed in the end. I think it's worth noting that even after two months has passed since the CMA said no, the deal has yet to be renegotiated to give Microsoft more time. It could still happen, but I think Bobby's puff pieces about ABK's financial situation may have been an indication, maybe even an advertisement to investors or other potential buyers, that they don't plan on trying to work this out. But this whole thing has more twists than a soap opera. So I'm not putting any money down.
 
MasterCornholio said:
You can still buy them.
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...but Game Pass.

Wait until a few years from now when we will be watching these people pushing so hard for Game Pass to be posting like Netflix users are now that they started cracking down with price hikes, taking away lower tier sub options and account sharing. I will continue to use Game Pass as long as it is good value but I suspect those days are numbered.
 
Mozza said:
Why do you think Nintendo got out of all this after the Cube, they knew exactly what Microsoft was going to do, and how much money they had to spend on it.
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They went a different direction when they realized they lost it as the multiplatform party box to Xbox and Playstation.
 
MScarpa said:
Just give me my Activision games day 1 on GP. It's all I ever wanted 😂
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Was my thoughts at first too. I won't buy COD games for the SP campaign but would play if they were on gamepass

But the CMA raised concerns that they believe Xbox would jack up the price of gamepass due to ABK. So if that would be the case.. Fuck that.
 
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