Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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Darsxx82 said:
How do you calculate the ease of achieving that?
PS5 COD players who are going to sign up for Gamepass? I doubt very much that PS5 users and rooted to the platforms will add. In any case it would only be between COD players. It also means that EVERY YEAR another 2 million should be registered..... I doubt very much that MS is interested in setting that challenge vs continue to release the game on PS5
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They expressed a goal for Starfield to be most played Bethesda game despite being foreclosed on PS. They have touted expanding access to 150 million more people. Respectfully, based on their claims and money being spent, they absolutely believe that 2 million growth via exclusivity for COD is plausible in my opinion. Doesn't matter what I model (not that I know a thing about such modeling techniques).
 
POKEYCLYDE said:
Not to "spin" this, but that's due diligence, is it not? A business would HAVE to look at all strategies to see what would be most profitable.

Not saying Microsoft should be trusted, as a lot of these emails have shown pretty damning things, but a business looking at all possibilities is not as damning as you think it is.

To answer the question: What would be the most profitable strategy moving forward with Activision, you would have to look at all possible strategies.
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I totally agree with this. Merely looking at it does not make Microsoft a criminal. However, there are 2 issues which encourage us to look at it suspiciously:

1. They claimed that Microsoft never assessed taking ABK games off of PlayStation. But they did. Why lie about it because, as you said, merely looking at this data, is not an issue.
2. Their internal emails showed that Microsoft changed Zenimax's valuation model earlier. This makes us believe that they can do the same thing again with ABK after the acquisition.
 
It's funny how Microsoft keeps using Minecraft as an example to keep games third party when they're obligated to.

Judge has to see through this bs.
 
Topher said:
Damn.....really? I didn't think the odds were that good myself.
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I'm thinking it's a coin flip, myself.

Despite the hyperbole on socials and forums, I don't think either side got "cooked". Both have made compelling arguments and I could see the Judge deciding either way.
 
Varteras said:
And her only real out for that is to say she wasn't aware. That would only help absolve HER. Other elements in the company, high up at that, ran such an assessment and seemed to have noted possibilities for it to make sense.
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Tim ran those numbers. And Tim reports directly to Amy Hood.

Her direct report was doing it without her knowledge and presenting that data to the board of directors? That seems quite a bit of reach ...
 
Nydius said:
I'm thinking it's a coin flip, myself.

Despite the hyperbole on socials and forums, I don't think either side got "cooked". Both have made compelling arguments and I could see the Judge deciding either way.
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probably especially given the American system but I'd say the FTC has done a better job at poking holes in Microsoft while Microsoft is just being like "oh sure maybe we lied before but this time we're for real, we'll pinky promise even"
 
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DForce said:
It's funny how Microsoft keeps using Minecraft as an example to keep games third party when they're obligated to.

Judge has to see through this bs.
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They PR lied so much about Minecraft, they just keep it in the brain. Even when you provide them documents that you're contractually obligated to.

Oh wow, how honorable, you didn't break a binding contract and engage in anti-trust behavior. LIKE ETHICAL PEOPLE ARE SUPPOSED TO. Want a fucking cookie?
 
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DForce said:
It's funny how Microsoft keeps using Minecraft as an example to keep games third party when they're obligated to.

Judge has to see through this bs.
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Did we see the Minecraft contract? I'm assuming it is a perpetual never ending contract for multiple systems then?
 
Heisenberg007 said:
I totally agree with this. Merely looking at it does not make Microsoft a criminal. However, there are 2 issues which encourage us to look at it suspiciously:

1. They claimed that Microsoft never assessed taking ABK games off of PlayStation. But they did. Why lie about it because, as you said, merely looking at this data, is not an issue.
2. Their internal emails showed that Microsoft changed Zenimax's valuation model earlier. This makes us believe that they can do the same thing again with ABK after the acquisition.
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Definitely very damning to Microsoft's stated intentions.
 
Heisenberg007 said:
Tim ran those numbers. And Tim reports directly to Amy Hood.

Her direct report was doing it without her knowledge and presenting that data to the board of directors? That seems quite a bit of reach ...
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Yet we've seen the dysfunction in Microsoft's communications. Where people who should be informed are not and where it seems there are multiple chiefs that can make decisions.
 
DJ12 said:
Do your thang and summarise:D
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Too many things to summarize now, sorry 😛

I'd suggest, open my profile and check my posts that I made in this thread. You'll find some (hilarious) memes and GIFs in between, but you'll find some stuff I posted when I was listening to the hearing live.

Very damning stuff. And I think Microsoft is in trouble here. Too many lies were exposed today.
 
M16 said:
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The Princess Bride Boo GIF by filmeditor
 
DForce said:
It's funny how Microsoft keeps using Minecraft as an example to keep games third party when they're obligated to.

Judge has to see through this bs.
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How are they obligated ? I've asked a few times but no one has been able to share any link where it shows there's contractual obligations via Notch or anyone.

If you mean obligated in the sense that it sells a lot and they don't want to disrupt that, sure, agree.
 
adamsapple said:
How are they obligated ? I've asked a few times but no one has been able to share any link where it shows there's contractual obligations via Notch or anyone.

If you mean obligated in the sense that it sells a lot and they don't want to disrupt that, sure, agree.
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you'd think if it was true, the FTC woulda brought it up
 
Heisenberg007 said:
Reality is setting in.

The information that came up during this trial may or may not be enough to approve/decline the acquisition. But it seems certainly enough to grant a PI.
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Which according to Microsoft, is enough to make them walk away from the deal. ABK, too.

They may simply not want to deal with the additional legal fees, or risk other corporate data getting revealed that could damage them. Or maybe, just maybe, they want to move on and work with what they already have, which is already well enough IMO.

Just get better upper management to run it.

Dick Jones said:
Sarah Bond is nearby!
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Skinamax time 😄

Seriously tho, I'm just gonna leave the music playing as long as the stream is up. Chill stuff.
 
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Also, fantastic job FTC. Even if the US Court system is heavily stacked against you, you have done a public service by pursuing this case and exposing these lies on to the world. People deserve to know exactly what they are supporting.
 
thicc_girls_are_teh_best said:
Which according to Microsoft, is enough to make them walk away from the deal. ABK, too.

They may simply not want to deal with the additional legal fees, or risk other corporate data getting revealed that could damage them. Or maybe, just maybe, they want to move on and work with what they already have, which is already well enough IMO.

Just get better upper management to run it.
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I wonder if this does get blocked, in hindsight Microsoft would think it'd have been better to just walk away when the CMA blocked it.

This dirty laundry would not have aired during the FTC case, and Xbox would have preserved its "good guy" image. And could have even played the victim card after the acquisition failed.

And if there would be consequences for the personnel who decided that we should continue with this, even after CMA, and be a part of the FTC hearing.
 
I think the FTC has got this. I am about 60% sure. They have lower burden of proof and maybe I'm obsessive, but the Matt Booty email really strikes me as enough to warrant an injunction. I don't know that the Canadian intervention is going to do much because they kinda swoop in last minute and yet they haven't made an actual determination yet. That feels weak to me.

I don't think Bobby did Microsoft many favors and understandably so. If the deal goes south they don't wanna burn their Sony bridges.

I think Microsoft's strongest defense was Dr. Bailey. On both days she killed it. To add to this, she actually focused on consumers and how things might effect them.

Given that the FTC largely focused on how the deal would affect Sony, I think the judge is smart enough to realize that harming Sony harms a portion of their customer base by proxy. I just kinda wish they really nailed that home.

Due to the timeline in the emails from both Jim Ryan and Matt Booty...you kinda have to take into context when these things were said and keep in mind that a lot can change in 2-3 years. So its possible to imagine this as a wash.
 
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Banjo64 said:
Also, fantastic job FTC. Even if the US Court system is heavily stacked against you, you have done a public service by pursuing this case and exposing these lies on to the world. People deserve to know exactly what they are supporting.
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The biggest takeaway for me. MS might still get ABK in the end (heck, maybe Sega too with some of the signaling going on), but the Xbox executives, media, and hardcore fanatics (the fanboys and fangirls, not regular fans) can't hide behind the "nice guy" schtick anymore. That's dead. That's over with.

Which is a win in itself, when it comes to open & honest discourse in this industry and hobby.
 
Fabieter said:
It wasn't discussed with her she said isnt a lie when it was discussed otherwise.
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It's possible it wasn't discussed with her. Which is alarming if the CFO is not in the loop on huge financial calculations like that. Yet, her knowing or not, it shows not only that Microsoft did indeed run assessments, with possible avenues for foreclosure, but also possible significant communication dysfunction at the executive level.
 
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Closing arguments aren't public? Dang. Those are the best part. I wanted some pre-July 4th fireworks. :messenger_neutral:

Edit: just saw the post above that they are public. Hopefully they get streamed.
 
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