Support NeoGAF

[wolffy66]

No, my question is:

• If the FTC fails to get a PI, but
• The court gives them, say, 30 days to file an appeal against the Judge's decision, e.g., the FTC has until July 30 to file an appeal.

Will MS be able to close the acquisition over the FTC before July 30th? Especially if the FTC files an appeal on the next day of the decision.

Well isn't that what they are asking the judge? The injunction is meant to stop MS from proceeding. If the judge doesn't grant it, it doesn't mean they approve the deal, but it does mean there's nothing to stop them from buying 1st and asking permission second. Or am I off on this?

 

[Astray]

No matter what, they only have 12 days left to convince ABK to renegotiate a new deadline, which will cost Microsoft more now, or to agree to allow the sale despite contractual obligations not being met. ABK's share price is almost $20 higher now than it was before the deal was announced. Meaning, at this rate, they'll be getting an extra $10 per share instead of the $30 it was then. ABK shareholders might decide the sale is no longer worth it if it looks like they can get back to their shares being worth $90 to $100. Meaning they could actually end up losing money on the deal or simply breaking even while losing control of the company.

A not small part of the company's share price rn is because of the Microsoft merger arbitrage traders (basically people who bought at 60ish and want to sell for $95).

Some of it is due to their circumstances improving greatly since the merger was announced. We will see how much each component is in due time.

Well isn't that what they are asking the judge? The injunction is meant to stop MS from proceeding. If the judge doesn't grant it, it doesn't mean they approve the deal, but it does mean there's nothing to stop them from buying 1st and asking permission second. Or am I off on this?

You are correct.

 

[DForce]

They don't need Microsoft to put games on cloud but Activision wasn't going to do it and definitely not on Nintendo . If they were they have yet to commit to it like Microsoft has.

This is a decision that can be made with Microsoft. Bobby Kotick just misread the Switch market and there's a good chance we will see Call of Duty on the next Switch.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Well isn't that what they are asking the judge? The injunction is meant to stop MS from proceeding. If the judge doesn't grant it, it doesn't mean they approve the deal, but it does mean there's nothing to stop them from buying 1st and asking permission second. Or am I off on this?

No, you are correct. My only question/gap in information is what happens during the appeal process.

 

[Varteras]

A not small part of the company's share price rn is because of the Microsoft merger arbitrage traders (basically people who bought at 60ish and want to sell for $95).

Some of it is due to their circumstances improving greatly since the merger was announced. We will see how much each component is in due time.


You are correct.

To be honest, that the CMA said no over two months ago now, and both companies would have understood the difficulty in overturning it, the fact that a renegotiation hasn't already happened may be plenty indication that an agreement between them could not be reached. Kottick did those puff pieces. Boasting about ABK's financial situation. He also wasn't terribly helpful for Microsoft in the hearing. Calling GamePass "value destructive" and saying he regrets skipping Nintendo, with an eye on bringing more of their games to them. Talking points Microsoft was all too proud of by that point.

A renegotiation would cost Microsoft even more now. ABK's stock price is the highest it's been since right after the deal was announced and the month leading up to the CMA's decision. It took a small tumble when the CMA said no. Most understood then that the deal was not likely to succeed unless something drastic happened. Yet the price went back up. They're still a damn sight better than the $56 per share they dropped to in December 2021 when they had their talks. I doubt the deal looks as good to them now as it did a year and a half ago when their market value got cut in half over 6 months.

 

[ToadMan]

A very real possibility that the appeal deadline falls after July 18, 2022. Even the Gamers' Lawsuit got 20 days for appeal.

Assuming FTC fails to get the PI, does anyone know for sure if Microsoft will be able to close over FTC (let's ignore the CMA for a second) before the appeal period is over for the FTC?

The temporary restraining order had a 5 business day holdover requirement following the issuance of a court decision.

So that would mean July 11th (next Tuesday) is the last day a judgement could be issued and the acquisition still close before the (arbitrary date of) the 18th if it happened under this stipulation.

I believe a new order as a result of this hearing will lead to a new period being offered by the judge in which an appeal could be lodged with a temporary restraining order still being in place.

For Meta/Within that was a 14 day period for example and during that time Meta could not close the acquisition (and that judgement took about a month to issue btw). Also in that case the FTC withdrew after only 7 days and Meta closed the deal…

 

[Heisenberg007]

To be honest, that the CMA said no over two months ago now, and both companies would have understood the difficulty in overturning it, the fact that a renegotiation hasn't already happened may be plenty indication that an agreement between them could not be reached. Kottick did those puff pieces. Boasting about ABK's financial situation. He also wasn't terribly helpful for Microsoft in the hearing. Calling GamePass "value destructive" and saying he regrets skipping Nintendo, with an eye on bringing more of their games to them. Talking points Microsoft was all too proud of by that point.

A renegotiation would cost Microsoft even more now. ABK's stock price is the highest it's been since right after the deal was announced and the month leading up to the CMA's decision. It took a small tumble when the CMA said no. Most understood then that the deal was not likely to succeed unless something drastic happened. Yet the price went back up. They're still a damn sight better than the $56 per share they dropped to in December 2021 when they had their talks. I doubt the deal looks as good to them now as it did a year and a half ago when their market value got cut in half over 6 months.

Yep. As you said there is only a $10 different in share price now.

And if the deal gets blocked, $3 billion will be added to ABK balance sheet. That, coupled with the only $10 difference, may actually turn out to be more profitable for ABK shareholders if the deal does not go through.

 

[Heisenberg007]

The temporary restraining order had a 5 business day holdover requirement following the issuance of a court decision.

So that would mean July 11th (next Tuesday) is the last day a judgement could be issued and the acquisition still close before the (arbitrary date of) the 18th if it happened under this stipulation. But I believe that tike has passed now.

I believe a new order as a result of this hearing will lead to a new period being offered by the judge in which an appeal could be lodged with a temporary restraining order still being in place.

For Meta/Within that was a 14 day period for example and during that time Meta could not close the acquisition (and that judgement took about a month to issue btw). Also in that case the FTC withdrew after only 7 days and Meta closed the deal…

I didn't know about this. Thank you, that is exactly the information I was looking for.

So, based on precedence, it seems like there will be an appeal period in which MS will not be allowed to close the acquisition -- unless the FTC decides to walk away. But I don't see why the FTC would walk away considering the CMA situation that would also be preventing MS from closing the acquisition.

In this context, I don't see a way this acquisition could close before July 18, is it? The only light at the end of the tunnel for Microsoft would be if the ABK shareholders extend the contract's deadline and sign off on it once more.

So far, there is no evidence that there has been any renegotiation, is there?

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Since we're all predicting when a ruling is handed down, I'll take July 12th

No particular reason, I just like that date

 

[Varteras]

I didn't know about this. Thank you, that is exactly the information I was looking for.

So, based on precedence, it seems like there will be an appeal period in which MS will not be allowed to close the acquisition -- unless the FTC decides to walk away. But I don't see why the FTC would walk away considering the CMA situation that would also be preventing MS from closing the acquisition.

In this context, I don't see a way this acquisition could close before July 18, is it? The only light at the end of the tunnel for Microsoft would be if the ABK shareholders extend the contract's deadline and sign off on it once more.

So far, there is no evidence that there has been any renegotiation, is there?

None. There haven't even been any remotely credible rumors that the deal is being extended. If final declarations are to happen tomorrow, and the judge won't issue an order until next week at the earliest, even a Monday order with a 7-day hold would mean the deadline takes effect right at the end.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Since we're all predicting when a ruling is handed down, I'll take July 12th

No particular reason, I just like that date

 

[Unknown Soldier]

So far, there is no evidence that there has been any renegotiation, is there?

No. Judging from Bobby's testimony, I would guess if the deal doesn't close, it will be allowed to die. It's clear that Bobby never liked the deal from the start, but his shareholders voted for it so he was forced to accept it. Now he can walk away and the shareholders won't be able to do anything about it.

 

[Varteras]

No. Judging from Bobby's testimony, I would guess if the deal doesn't close, it will be allowed to die. It's clear that Bobby never liked the deal from the start, but his shareholders voted for it so he was forced to accept it. Now he can walk away and the shareholders won't be able to do anything about it.

If nothing else, this deal will put a free $3 billion into the company bank and helped their market value at least stabilize.

 

[Astray]

To be clear, the market value would not automatically stabilize just because of 3 billion (because remember, that 3 billion could potentially be fought over in courts between MS and ActiBlizz AND they only got it because they lost out on 69 billion, which is a much bigger movement cause of the stock price).

The 3 billion would help Kotick in stabilizing the stock price if he uses it for acquisitions of his own or in a stock buyback program.

 

[Varteras]

To be clear, the market value would not automatically stabilize just because of 3 billion (because remember, that 3 billion could potentially be fought over in courts between MS and ActiBlizz AND they only got it because they lost out on 69 billion, which is a much bigger movement cause of the stock price).

The 3 billion would help Kotick in stabilizing the stock price if he uses it for acquisitions of his own or in a stock buyback program.

I don't think anyone suggested that $3 billion is why the stock price stabilized.

 

[RickMasters]

That's a stipulation Bungie had to be purchased. If it was up to Sony all thier stuff would be exclusive.

True.

Hopefully, otherwise we are going to see another blip and people like you will just disappear into the ether.

people like you are already in the ether (the gaf) . I just come and visit the ether for laughs. Don't worry. I won't leave ya'll alone for too long. Neogaf is my dirty little secret. Don't tell anybody I'm a gamer.

 

[RickMasters]

So why doesn't Phil Spencer just do that instead of the pitiful woe is me, case by case act etc?

Your asking the wrong guy. I'm not Phil nor am I a mind reader. So I can't tell you why he does what he does.

 

[Astray]

Your asking the wrong guy. I'm not Phil nor am I a mind reader. So I can't tell you why he does what he does.

So why write the long-ass paragraph about how you would be upfront about it then? We're the wrong audience for that rant of yours because the majority of us can already see him for what he is.

 

[Thirty7ven]

people like you are already in the ether (the gaf) . I just come and visit the ether for laughs. Don't worry. I won't leave ya'll alone for too long. Neogaf is my dirty little secret. Don't tell anybody I'm a gamer.

Was that your alt? You seem to have taken it very personally.

 

[Varteras]

Don't tell anybody I'm a gamer.

You're good. No one believes that anyway.

 

[RickMasters]

Was that your alt? You seem to have taken it very personally.

whats the matter? you can thow jabs but cant them? .

I dont know you from a can of paint. I dont take it personally. and whats an alt? Im not up to speed on nerd slang.

 

[RickMasters]

You're good. No one believes that anyway.

 

[RickMasters]

So why write the long-ass paragraph about how you would be upfront about it then?

.......Because I can post what I want.

Im entitled to my own opinion on this merger in this forum...you are aware of that, are you not?

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

whats the matter? you can thow jabs but cant them? .

I dont know you from a can of paint. I dont take it personally. and whats an alt? Im not up to speed on nerd slang.

 

[RickMasters]

yawn...... Gif GAF . You just mad because I really make them 808s slide.

 

[thismeinteil]

whats the matter? you can thow jabs but cant them? .

I dont know you from a can of paint. I dont take it personally. and whats an alt? Im not up to speed on nerd slang.

So, trying to hide it's an alt by pretending to not know what an alt is...

 

[RickMasters]

So, trying to hide it's an alt by pretending to not know what an alt is...

I REALLY dont, though.....Nor do I care. get over it. NOt everybody keeps up with these things. they are minor


But suit yourself though... whatever makes you feel better. have another GIF

 

[Topher]

I still think the FTC may get the PI (although I can see it's very 50:50), which will put an end to the acquisition. Even if the FTC doesn't get the injunction, MS wouldn't be able to close because of the UK.

I think there is a less than 5% chance of this deal passing through. We have only 12 days left before the deal expires and so far, ABK shareholders have not amended the contract or renegotiated the deal.

That's where I am right now, but let's see what actually happens.

I think chances of the deal going through are a bit higher than that. It is going to come down to a few individuals making some extremely key decisions, primarily the judges of the CAT. Based on what I heard from Judge Corley, I just don't see her granting the PI. The big question in my mind is what will Microsoft do if the PI is not granted. Will they actually defy the CMA's order as some have suggested? That still seems incredibly unlikely to me, but like you say we only have 12 days left.

Bumpy ride ahead

 

[RickMasters]

This thread giving me jokes and I aint even had breakfast yet! for real though whats an alt? forgive my ignorance to these things. If I thought it was worth knowing Id know what you guys meant by it. Im really sorry that I dont know your slang. Im jamaican...you cant blame me for not knowing your gamer terms.

 

[DeepEnigma]

I think a big reason why they bought them was because Microsoft was looking to buy them as well. But it sounds like the deal wasn't satisfactory to them, whereas Sony agreed to the terms.

Sounds like MS didn't want another Minecraft situation where they have been trying and unable to weasel their way around the original purchase contract.

Poor Notch, he wanted his legacy everywhere it can be played on, and instead they went ahead and removed all mentioned of him as a creator of the series, to be spiteful cunts.

 

[Pelta88]

This thread giving me jokes and I aint even had breakfast yet! for real though whats an alt? forgive my ignorance to these things. If I thought it was worth knowing Id know what you guys meant by it. Im really sorry that I dont know your slang. Im jamaican...you cant blame me for not knowing your gamer terms.

Alt = Second account from the same user. ie

Pelta88 - Me
99twitchbroz - My second account

If you think shit is funny now, wait until you find two accounts from the same person having a full conversation with each other.

 

[FlyyGOD]

This is a decision that can be made with Microsoft. Bobby Kotick just misread the Switch market and there's a good chance we will see Call of Duty on the next Switch.

Exactly what I posted. No commitment to Nintendo yet from Activision. Microsoft gave a definite yes to making COD. available for Switch.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Alt = Second account from the same user. ie

Pelta88 - Me
99twitchbroz - My second account

If you think shit is funny now, wait until you find two accounts from the same person having a full conversation with each other.

Sometimes they forget to log into their alt, and quote themselves like a "new person" agreeing with what they just said a bit ago.

 

[kvltus lvlzvs]

Alt = Second account from the same user. ie

Pelta88 - Me
99twitchbroz - My second account

If you think shit is funny now, wait until you find two accounts from the same person having a full conversation with each other.

has that happened in this thread at all? Also, how do you all figure out people are alts?

 

[Eotheod]

Wouldn't the stock prices plummet if the deal doesn't go through, because the assumption is the price is higher due to the acquisition getting closer and closer? I mean, that is my assumption based off the fact it was lower before the initial purchase, rose a bit after and has sat relatively at the same point for some time.

 

[RickMasters]

Alt = Second account from the same user. ie

Pelta88 - Me
99twitchbroz - My second account

If you think shit is funny now, wait until you find two accounts from the same person having a full conversation with each other.

Thanks for the heads up, bruh. Ive legit never heard the term. still kinda new to all this forum shite! this is my first games site forum to be fair, so yeah...first time hearing it. normally I would think 'alt-right' 'alt-left'.... 'alt music' ya dig? normal alt shit!


they think i have mulitple accounts or am somebody else?...these dudes are wacko, fam! I have better things to do in my days. its NOT that deep! its only 8:30 here. I can mess around for another 30!

 

[Varteras]

Alt = Second account from the same user. ie

Pelta88 - Me
99twitchbroz - My second account

If you think shit is funny now, wait until you find two accounts from the same person having a full conversation with each other.

You want shit to get wild? Wait until I start talking to myself!

 

[Varteras]

You want shit to get wild? Wait until I start talking to myself!

What he said!

 

[DeepEnigma]

Sometimes they forget to log into their alt, and quote themselves like a "new person" agreeing with what they just said a bit ago.

I've seen this too!

 

[RickMasters]

has that happened in this thread at all? Also, how do you all figure out people are alts?

Good question! If true, I think thats wack. Nothing here is worth acting so crazy over, thats a waste of time and energy, that could be better spent elsewhere. especially not on some big companies none of us work for, buying eachother. its not that serious. it honestly effects none of us. people just need to go touch grass and get some air for a bit! this console war shit is all in their heads ...all...the...time!



Can we just all voice are opinions without getting triggered when we read things we dont like to hear? its not hard!

 

[Topher]

I think chances of the deal going through are a bit higher than that. It is going to come down to a few individuals making some extremely key decisions, primarily the judges of the CAT. Based on what I heard from Judge Corley, I just don't see her granting the PI. The big question in my mind is what will Microsoft do if the PI is not granted. Will they actually defy the CMA's order as some have suggested? That still seems incredibly unlikely to me, but like you say we only have 12 days left.

Bumpy ride ahead

 

[McCarth]

So I haven't read much about this in a long while and I've tried to go through a bunch of posts here, but there is just so many!

What is everyone here's consensus now on this merger happening? 50% it goes through, 50% not?

 

[DeepEnigma]

So I haven't read much about this in a long while and I've tried to go through a bunch of posts here, but there is just so many!

What is everyone here's consensus now on this merger happening? 50% it goes through, 50% not?

 

[PropellerEar]

Going full Hendrick's ?

 

[Varteras]

Wouldn't the stock prices plummet if the deal doesn't go through, because the assumption is the price is higher due to the acquisition getting closer and closer? I mean, that is my assumption based off the fact it was lower before the initial purchase, rose a bit after and has sat relatively at the same point for some time.

The stock price dropped a bit when the CMA said no. Effectively ending the deal by most estimates. Then it went back up. The reason the stock price plummeted in the first place was because of the massive legal issues. When they started talking to Microsoft, they were at the tail end of a 6-month nose dive. Before the deal was announced, their stocks were going back up. But there was a lot of uncertainty. The deal announcement washed away many of the concerns that caused the price drop. Since then, the legal issues have largely faded.

ABK is also enjoying a great release with Diablo 4, which at the time the talks started was still years away. Overwatch 2 was still a year away by that point. BlizzCon is coming back this year as an in-person event for the first time since COVID hit. Dragonflight, the latest WoW expansion, was a success. It managed to win back some good faith and help slow the bleeding from the previous two expansions. Though they still have a lot of work to do.

Call of Duty is still bringing in a lot of money. Though the latest Warzone seems like it's having trouble. All in all, ABK is in a much better position now than they were a couple years ago. There is no reason to believe that their stocks, without the deal, aren't at least stable now.

 

[Varteras]

Reported.

 

[DeltaPolarBear]

Sounds like MS didn't want another Minecraft situation where they have been trying and unable to weasel their way around the original purchase contract.

Poor Notch, he wanted his legacy everywhere it can be played on, and instead they went ahead and removed all mentioned of him as a creator of the series, to be spiteful cunts.

The players at least would have been willing to keep his name alive... Except he went off the deep end and got absorbed by the lunatic fringe. So now players are actually glad to pretend he never existed.

 

[DeepEnigma]

The players at least would have been willing to keep his name alive... Except he went off the deep end and got absorbed by the lunatic fringe. So now players are actually glad to pretend he never existed.

Ah yes, the slacktivism when it comes to separating the non-approved narrative artists have from their work. I guess he would have been better off in Pedowood.

 

[jroc74]

After this hearing, I don't know how anyone can say, "Phil said" without feeling like a tool. Sorry, but you gotta be pretty shameless to keep standing by his word.

What's so wild....some will take what he said out of court as gospel....along with what he said in court....even if they contradict.....

 

[DeepEnigma]

What's so wild....some will take what he said out of court as gospel....along with what he said in court....even if they contradict.....

That's called, cognitive dissonance.