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[DeepEnigma]

Has to get by the CMA first.

You can tell the select that take drip-fed BS in certain channels as narrative gospel. They always seem to develop gamer's amnesia™ that the CMA doesn't exist and that MS is going to close before the appeal process even hits CAT.

Because that totally would not show a gross disrespect to laws of the land or processes you initially agreed and committed to. Totally won't impact how the CAT feels about that snubbing of their rules & procedures.

PR and narrative control that feeds confirmation biases sure does work. Even when there is hard outlined logic & processes laid out in front of them.

 

[drganon]

Has to get by the CMA before it is over.

They'll just leave the uk, set up a shell company, declare war against Parliament, etc,etc.

 

[The Pleasure]

Who the hell sent him gold?

It was I, Dio!

 

[Bernardougf]

You can tell the select that take drip-fed BS in certain channels as narrative gospel. They always seem to develop gamer's amnesia™ that the CMA doesn't exist and that MS is going to close before the appeal process even hits CAT.

Because that totally would not show a gross disrespect to laws of the land or processes you initially agreed and committed to. Totally won't impact how the CAT feels about that snubbing of their rules & procedures.

PR and narrative control that feeds confirmation biases sure does work. Even when there is hard outlined logic & processes laid out in front of them.

We are back to the shit twitter right from SenjitsuSage account takes .. It was fun though

 

[GHG]

DeepEnigma

Never have I seen a more retarded stretch of communication in my entire 17 years on this forum.

And remember, I've seen it all, taken part in all the console wars, know all the tactics. Nothing fools me.

Worthy of gold he is not.

 

[Calverz]

Just to throw another morsel on the bbq, the last couple of days has seen various parties ask for documents to be redacted / sealed.

This is an excerpt from the NOA request.

That was submitted just yesterday and no decision from the court has been received about whether to seal it or not.

Evidently the FTC believes whatever was agreed with Nintendo supports their case. Either it's MS ability to back track on the offer, or that it makes clear COD on Nintendo hardware won't be the equivalent of COD on Xsex & PS5 and so not a comparable consumer option.

Another note - the FTC has submitted several of these additional documents this week. MS agreed to let their's be submitted unredacted probably to avoid burning up more time of the court going through these decisions.

This is one place to look and see what documents the court is working with - not many of these are directly available right now, so we only see descriptions of what the documents may contain and the request about them.

https://www.courtlistener.com/docke...d_before=&entry_gte=&entry_lte=&order_by=desc

Delay delay delay. It's the FTC's best bet for a while now.

 

[Bernardougf]

Never have I seen a more retarded stretch of communication in my entire 17 years on this forum.

And remember, I've seen it all, taken part in all the console wars, know all the tactics. Nothing fools me.

Worthy of gold he is not.

He was making fun of the gold .. so it was ironic seeing he become one and had to shut up about it ..

 

[drganon]

Never have I seen a more retarded stretch of communication in my entire 17 years on this forum.

And remember, I've seen it all, taken part in all the console wars, know all the tactics. Nothing fools me.

Worthy of gold he is not.

Sage, silent viper and Bernd might give Rick a run for his money.

 

[The Pleasure]

He was making fun of the gold .. so it was ironic seeing he become one and had to shut up about it ..

Guess he's FIGHTING GOLD

 

[Topher]

They'll just leave the uk, set up a shell company, declare war against Parliament, etc,etc.

I think they will go 100% black market in the UK.

 

[Bernardougf]

Delay delay delay. It's the FTC's best bet for a while now.

For me the FTC angle was always to try and expose all the bullshit it could so the CAT/CMA had more to work with ... in this regard it was more then enough... history tells that in the US it is a lost cause so .. the fight remains in the CMA as expected since the beginning

 

[DeepEnigma]

We are back to the shit twitter right from SenjitsuSage account takes .. It was fun though

It's retarded, really. Desperate.

 

[Calverz]

For me the FTC angle was always to try and expose all the bullshit it could so the CAT/CMA had more to work with ... in this regard it was more then enough... history tells that in the US it is a lost cause so .. the fight remains in the CMA as expected since the beginning

The FTC have done a poor job but that's because the facts were never in their favour to begin with anyway.

 

[Elios83]

I've not been following the thread a lot recently but we are now 10 days until the Microsoft/Activision deal expires.
No signs of renegotiations, extensions of the current contract under different conditions which include a way to handle the CMA situation. Those things should also be approved by shareholders, they're not minor details.
Seems like everything is frozen and dependent on the ruling of the FTC preliminary injunction.
But there is not even a guarantee that the verdict will be made soon, the judge stated that it won't took her 2 or 3 months which is completely different from "I will have a verdict within 3 weeks just to help Microsoft with their internal deadlines".
So I really wonder what the strategy really is, are they really committed past July 18th?

 

[DeepEnigma]

The FTC have done a poor job but that's because the facts were never in their favour to begin with anyway.

 

[Jigsaah]

Since the judge basically makes the decision I think it's important to consider the interactions. At the time of recording, the sheer shock value of the way the judge interrupted the FTC, how she called them out on vouching for Sony rather than aiming to protect the consumers and how she literally said that the FTC hasn't shown how this deal is anticompetitive, it made me feel like it was over for the FTC.

Now that the dust is settled and realizing the low bar that the FTC has to meet to get the PI, I feel like there's a chance.

Folks gotta also keep in mind that this is just one hurdle Microsoft has to clear. The CMA is still the main blockade. From what I understand, Microsoft could close over the CMA, but it would be at great legal cost and it would require a renegotation between Microsoft and ABK.

What I'm not completely up to date with is what's going on with CAT and the appeals process? What do we know so far?

 

[Bernardougf]

The FTC have done a poor job but that's because the facts were never in their favour to begin with anyway.

They done a great job exposing phil spencer as the biggest liar in this industry and the real intentions that MS have behind scenes... thats more than enough for the CMA to use .. if they want it

 

[Pelta88]

They done a great job exposing phil spencer as the biggest liar in this industry and the real intentions that MS have behind scenes... thats more than enough for the CMA to use .. if they want it

The peak behind the curtain is worth its proverbial weight in gold.

 

[kvltus lvlzvs]

Wow, this thread has gotten REALLY good over the last few pages. Thank you RickMasters

 

[Calverz]

ah....yeah...of course...... OK

Only thing that happens is I dont get COD on gamepass and still have to pay for it every year (which I admit I hate doing..things we do just play what our freinds play, eh?).....makes not a lick of difference to me, otherwise. I aint the one making money from the deal, am I? I lose nothing if it fails. because its not my deal. its not my money. what is there to be mad about? Im talking about the anti merger camp and how hard they been going ion this thread....nobody can tell me they wont go nuclear if this deal goes through...after all the energy they have put into this thread. Ill even say the same about the xbox fans who have made it their personal battle grounds...they aint arguing with themselves are they?

 

[Solidus_T]

The FTC have done a poor job but that's because the facts were never in their favour to begin with anyway.

Phil Spencer's PR lies have been exposed for everyone to see. Those facts are the most damning thing for Microsoft.

 

[DJ12]

Maybe ms are going to close, quickly sign a contract to make CoD exclusive and then sell back to Bobby before the CMA orders them too

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Maybe ms are going to close, quickly sign a contract to make CoD exclusive and then sell back to Bobby before the CMA orders them too

Galaxy Brain business management

 

[Ar¢tos]

Phil Spencer's PR lies have been exposed for everyone to see. Those facts are the most damning thing for Microsoft.

The answer you'll get will be :
"Jim Ryan also lied about some things!"
Or "Sony has lied about stuff too!"

Completely ignoring that it is MS that is trying to buy Activision, not Sony...

 

[PharaoTutAnchAmun]

1300 pages of people telling us why this deal has to be stopped?....thats a lot of effort for people to just suddenly go quiet over, and move on? ...but we will see.

Ore ore....1300 pages of people telling us that the deal must go trough?....if the merger wil not go trough ...thats a lot of people to just suddenly go quiet over and say nothing and move on?

SPOILER (sort off)..no way. Theyr would be tantrum after tantrum and screaming thats not fair and MS did nothing wrong....
It works both ways....

 

[ToadMan]

Delay delay delay. It's the FTC's best bet for a while now.

Yes I think that was the FTC play with this injunction and its timing.

Which leads me to conclude the FTC knows, or at least believes strongly enough that

1) Getting to July 18 is good enough because ATVI will pull out

And

2) That MS were considering "closing over" the CMA/CAT (and by extension the FTC itself) which would indicate MS also recognise ATVI will pull out on 18 July.

Or to put it another way, the FTC calculated they could get the result they wanted by running out the clock now rather than sitting back, letting MS close and then trying to unpick the acquisition later.

Maybe I'm giving the FTC too much credit for planning it out this way, if they did, props to them I guess and it's poor from MS not to anticipate this play and close earlier.

Actually now I think about - if there is no judgement in time for MS to close the acquisition and ATVI pull out, would the court continue to determine the outcome of the PI? And if so, what if they determine in favor of MS but too late…

 

[Calverz]

Phil Spencer's PR lies have been exposed for everyone to see. Those facts are the most damning thing for Microsoft.

Hmmm yea very damning. But do you think the judge cares for that more than microsoft honouring exclusivity contracts? Which they did post merger with Bethesda even when it was to their own detriment?

 

[PaintTinJr]

Maybe ms are going to close, quickly sign a contract to make CoD exclusive and then sell back to Bobby before the CMA orders them too

Having pondered the issue for weeks or months, now I'm inclined to believe their strategy will be to close, but not incorporate - I think that is the technical term, but would welcome a correction.

The difference in their eyes will be that they stopped the clock and didn't totally usurp the CAT/CMA authority over the deal and can then fight on with nothing changed.

It is my opinion that they massively misunderstand the way contempt is seen in the UK courts and even if they won their appeal on the substance, the contempt issue would bury them legally as a company. As the FTC lawyer correctly spoke - to make a point - "the day Sony and other platforms start looking at ATVI different", which he stated would happen the day after the deal closed, the damage would begin.

He was obviously wrong, because the damage has already began because PlayStation are already acting on contingency and cutting spending on AAA projects that would be funded by the $2-3b they make from CoD on their platform.

 

[PharaoTutAnchAmun]

seriously....how do I make this gold shit go away? it will wear off by tomorrow or something right?

I have read that you would go shopping?
Hurry up your mother is waiting for her groceries and you dont make your mother mad....believe me...I advice you to go, dont make a woman mad...

 

[Pelta88]

Hmmm yea very damning. But do you think the judge cares for that more than microsoft honouring exclusivity contracts? Which they did post merger with Bethesda even when it was to their own detriment?

This guy is living in his own reality.

Touting contracts designed from the ground up to be worthless on paper. And Bethesda exclusives which Microsoft said would be on a "case by case basis" publicly. While in private, XB had already decided to make those games exclusive.

Like... These are known facts. Facts introduced to the public by court order. But Calverz wants us to believe the horse manure he's spreading because he likes that reality better.

 

[ToadMan]

What I'm not completely up to date with is what's going on with CAT and the appeals process? What do we know so far?

Scheduled to start July 28 and continue for about 6 days.

Before that not much from CAT. Some documents should appear stating the case for each side. That's about it.

 

[thebigmanjosh]

So the Judge needs to make a decision by the 11th in order for MS to meet the 7/18 deadline, right?

But the Judge set a date for all materials to be submitted by 7/12, so there's no way this closes unless there's a renegotiation and MS try to circumvent the CMA/UK law?

 

[harry mason 1989]

We will know the answer on July 18

 

[FrankWza]

The peak behind the curtain is worth its proverbial weight in gold.

Yup. And that Heisenberg007 thread...

This guy is living in his own reality.

Touting contracts designed from the ground up to be worthless on paper. And Bethesda exclusives which Microsoft said would be on a "case by case basis" publicly. While in private, XB had already decided to make those games exclusive.

Like... These are known facts. Facts introduced to the public by court order. But Calverz wants us to believe the horse manure he's spreading because he likes that reality better.

Plus the Minecraft info contradicts that.

 

[Heisenberg007]

So the Judge needs to make a decision by the 11th in order for MS to meet the 7/18 deadline, right?

But the Judge set a date for all materials to be submitted by 7/12, so there's no way this closes unless there's a renegotiation and MS try to circumvent the CMA/UK law?

So going by this, the judge can share her decision on Monday (10th) or Tuesday (11th), and it can still work out to be before July 18, right?

So essentially, Microsoft has 3 business days left, including today? Is that correct?

 

[Pelta88]

About the "Microsoft can just close" narrative.

The contract still states that the CMA has to approve. So no matter what happens with the FTC, if they can't convince the CMA the terms have not been met. I understand why the "They can just close over Canada, Australia, UK" Etc Still persists but in terms of contractual law...

Also Bobby's testimony indicates he's thinking twice about the deal. Maybe he's thinking about what GP would do to his legacy?

 

[Unknown Soldier]

So going by this, the judge can share her decision on Monday (10th) or Tuesday (11th), and it can still work out to be before July 18, right?

So essentially, Microsoft has 3 business days left, including today? Is that correct?

All dates are arbitrary until proven real at this point. We'll know for certain only if the deal officially closes or dies, which may or may not be this month even.

What I'm saying is this thread lives on

 

[Corndog]

Has to get by the CMA before it is over.

Nope. Just pay the fines.

CMA Announces Fine for Breaching an Order To Hold Separate an Acquisition Target | Insights | Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP

The U.K. Competition and Markets Authority has imposed a record fine of £50.5 million for a procedural breach during the authority’s review of a merger, highlighting the need for acquirers to understand the full scope of interim orders.

www.skadden.com

 

[thebigmanjosh]

So going by this, the judge can share her decision on Monday (10th) or Tuesday (11th), and it can still work out to be before July 18, right?

So essentially, Microsoft has 3 business days left, including today? Is that correct?

Basically. EOD Tuesday is the deadline for the judges decision, and I just don't see how she can make a judgement before the final submissions deadline.

If MS doesn't renegotiate before 7/18, then the deal is dead. FTC doesn't really matter at this point.

 

[demigod]

About the "Microsoft can just close" narrative.

The contract still states that the CMA has to approve. So no matter what happens with the FTC, if they can't convince the CMA the terms have not been met. I understand why the "They can just close over Canada, Australia, UK" Etc Still persists but in terms of contractual law...

Also Bobby's testimony indicates he's thinking twice about the deal. Maybe he's thinking about what GP would do to his legacy?

Im thinking ms will point to bobby to get out of the 3bil if the deal fails.

 

[solidus12]

Stage of acceptance?

 

[harry mason 1989]

Bobby will get his 3bil
Then he will leave to silent hill

 

[Topher]

Nope. Just pay the fines.

CMA Announces Fine for Breaching an Order To Hold Separate an Acquisition Target | Insights | Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP

The U.K. Competition and Markets Authority has imposed a record fine of £50.5 million for a procedural breach during the authority’s review of a merger, highlighting the need for acquirers to understand the full scope of interim orders.

www.skadden.com

Except that wasn't the end of it and Facebook was forced to sell off Giphy.

Facebook owner Meta sells Giphy at a loss of more than $260m

Stock image service Shutterstock buys gif search engine after Meta’s acquisition blocked by regulators

www.theguardian.com

 

[ChiefDada]

Since the judge basically makes the decision I think it's important to consider the interactions. At the time of recording, the sheer shock value of the way the judge interrupted the FTC, how she called them out on vouching for Sony rather than aiming to protect the consumers and how she literally said that the FTC hasn't shown how this deal is anticompetitive, it made me feel like it was over for the FTC.

It came off as grandstanding to me, likely because the judge understands that the media and general public (with their rudimentary understanding of antitrust regulations) would not understand why the FTC keeps mentioning Sony if their ultimate purpose is to protect the consumer interest. Well, by extension, the FTC has to promote a competitive market; in the console industry, Sony and Microsoft are 2 out of 3 players in the market, and are the only two players in the high-end console market. In other words, it is impossible for the FTC to make their case without talking nonstop about the effect it would have on Sony. They are the only competitor when discussing high-end console market. You can argue all you want that Nintendo should be considered a competitor, but Microsoft themselves virtually killed that argument with their internal analysis that focused on Sony alone with no financial analysis conducted for Nintendo. The judge understands this but she has to do her performative bit for the ignorant public.

The US doesn't really block vertical mergers, at least not in decades. Idk that Sony made their look at more likely to win than average.

You can't block a deal that ends up being abandoned by the acquirer or target company. Nvidia abandoned the ARM acquisition, which would have been a vertical merger, just a year or two ago because of the FTC scrutiny. The Microsoft/Activision deal qualifies as both a horizontal (Microsoft the game publisher/developer) and vertical (Microsoft the console maker; Microsoft the cloud gaming platform) integration depending on how you view Microsoft. Crazy part is, the antitrust concerns are significant in both instances because of the concentration in the console market and oligopoly with large publishers.

 

[Corndog]

Ore ore....1300 pages of people telling us that the deal must go trough?....if the merger wil not go trough ...thats a lot of people to just suddenly go quiet over and say nothing and move on?

SPOILER (sort off)..no way. Theyr would be tantrum after tantrum and screaming thats not fair and MS did nothing wrong....
It works both ways....

There will be more tantrums if the deal goes through then if it doesn't.
Either way, I'll hope this is over in the next week.

 

[ToadMan]

So the Judge needs to make a decision by the 11th in order for MS to meet the 7/18 deadline, right?

That's my understanding yes.

However, 5 days is associated with the TRO. The judge can alter those times if/when a judgement is reached - I'd expect them to get longer to allow time for an FTC appeal.

But the Judge set a date for all materials to be submitted by 7/12, so there's no way this closes unless there's a renegotiation and MS try to circumvent the CMA/UK law?

The FTC questioned of the 12th would be the close for public findings - the Judge responded with "7th please". So I believe the final submissions of public findings should be today unless a party asks for an extension to that timeframe.

 

[Corndog]

Except that wasn't the end of it and Facebook was forced to sell off Giphy.

Facebook owner Meta sells Giphy at a loss of more than $260m

Stock image service Shutterstock buys gif search engine after Meta’s acquisition blocked by regulators

www.theguardian.com

But you can close, right?

 

[Topher]

But you can close, right?

You mean Microsoft? Not legally in the UK, no. CMA has issued an order prohibiting closing. They have to go through the appeal process.

 

[HoofHearted]

You guys really going to be calm?! If this deal goes through I'm gonna meltdown like fucking Chernobyl. I'll post a TikTok of me taking a diarrhea dookie into the vents of my series X while screaming fuck your Phil and greenie!!!

 

[gothmog]

You mean Microsoft? Not legally in the UK, no. CMA has issued an order prohibiting closing. They have to go through the appeal process.

The deal also requires CMA approval. Its like the fever dream that won't die. Microsoft isn't closing the deal unless major things turn in their favor. And that window for things to turn in their favor is closing rapidly.