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[ToTTenTranz]

Simply put, she f***d up. She either didn't understand or forgot during her write-up that other developers and publishers don't make console hardware (This explains why she was getting on the FTC about Sony). Sony is the only other console manufacturer under the supposition - agreed upon by both FTC and the court - that Gen 9 console market includes only Sony and Microsoft. Therefore, it IS merger-specific.

Stephen Totilo's coverage during the depositions made it clear that everyone was pretty frustrated about how the judge failed to grasp pretty simple things, such as Sony being Xbox's only competitor in the console hardware space, or how she kept dismissing Bethesda games becoming exclusive overnight as not relevant to Microsoft's plan, or their own internal e-mails claiming they should outspend Sony out of the cloud business.


At some point she held on to this weird concept of trying to get the FTC to prove how much money Sony would lose with the acquisition, which is neither the FTC's concern (what is against the law is the intent to foreclose the competition after purchasing a common supplier), nor is it possible in this market (once again showing her lack of notion around the videogames market).


Willingly or not, and regardless of the outcome, this judge was really unfit for this case.

 

[aliadiere25]

But as I said, you ignore fact that Switch is successor to 3DS, not only for WiiU. So you should probably count that 3DS number in some way.

Also my (and point of the judge) stays. Console market is highly a growth vector. Fact that sales of consoles are currently frontloaded compared to 360/PS3 gen does not mean overall growth. Console market is at best stagnant.

She states the console market is shrinking, but it doesn't hold up at all. Just because Microsoft's consoles haven't been selling that well since the Xbox 360 doesn't mean Nintendo and Sony are struggling. The PS4 has sold 30m more units than the PS3 and the Switch has sold 25m more units than the Wii. That doesn't mean Sony and Nintendo's console share is shrinking, it means it's increasing. And if it weren't for COVID, the PS5 would be on course to beat the PS4 if we're being honest.

The judge has come across as very biased and she's only seeing it through Microsoft's eyes.

 

[Jigsaah]

I think at this point of the game with the cost of development and potential revenue on the line and potential mindshare of fans etc... Exclusivity is probably very much a moving target with a lot of moving parts and what has said one day may change to the next so it's probably really up in the air at this point.

They did also say a case by case basis. So I think you're right in that.

 

[ShaiKhulud1989]

If the CMA actually pulls out a rabbit from a hat and stops this I will, until the day I die, publicly defend English food as the best in the world. And that includes the offense to God that is putting a pie in a burger bun.

If CMA somehow block this I'll admit that toast sandwich is the best one, yeah.

 

[GHG]

Aight cool, fuck their reputation. I don't agree that it doesn't matter to them, but sure let's toss it out.

Do you have some evidence of what they said to EU regulators? That one kinda flew under the radar for me. So I'm not saying you're wrong, but I would like to see all the context before responding to that specifically.

They made Starfield exclusive, and what....Indiana Jones? Redfall.

The way I remember it is that Phil said buying Bethesda was definitely about exclusives. This was public and way before speaking to regulators in the EU I'm sure. They also said they would respect that if a franchise had an existing fanbase, they would keep those multiplat. So if they are keeping games like Fallout 4, Fallout 76, Dishonored and other established franchises on Playstation, then technically they're keeping their word.

Starfield has no fanbase yet cuz it's a new IP. Indiana Jones...I mean when was the last video game iteration of Indy...I mean come on. Redfall is also a new IP. They've also honored the deals Sony had with Deathloop and Ghostwire Tokyo.

Please explain to me where they went back on their word?

They said there's been no decision on TES6, which is YEARS away. We still need to see how games like The Outer Worlds 2 comes about. If they are multiplat, they are keeping their promise. If it's exclusive they are going back on it.

I will say it's suspicious that there is no decision on TES6 when they already made a staement about franchises with previous fanbases. There is also that Pete Hines email that seems to hint that Bethesda is going heavily in the exclusive side of things, while ABK will not be. That would both support and disprove parts of your point.

I would have advised you to save writing all of that before reading this:

 

[splattered]

I would have advised you to save writing all of that before reading this:

GHG was King Robert all along, we've been had!

 

[GHG]

GHG was King Robert all along, we've been had!

 

[Deleted member 848825]

We have conflicting information on where the CMA stands. On one hand, CNBC says all it is a "small divestiture". On the other hand, CMA says this is early in talks. That doesn't jive.

Its a strange one isn't it. To me it came across yesterday that the CMA and MS had already set or perhaps agreed something in principle at least following Brad's visit in June with CMA and our chancellor. But all pending the FTC hearing. Hence the immediate CMA response. But then we read this CMA rhetoric today...

 

[Zok310]

MS went on a PR Blitz yesterday to throw folks off, the CMA is calling it out now.
Some of yall fell for it, ya made the giant corporation trick ya again.
Deal is still prohibited in the UK, a restructuring would deffo trigger a new investigation.
ABK about to walk away with 3 billi

 

[Topher]

Its a strange one isn't it. To me it came across yesterday that the CMA and MS had already set or perhaps agreed something in principle at least following Brad's visit in June with CMA and our chancellor. But all pending the FTC hearing. Hence the immediate CMA response. But then we read this CMA rhetoric today...

And as far as we know the deadline is still the same. Next six days are going to be interesting.

 

[Varteras]

CNBC has fixed their report.
CMA hasn't accepted anything. Microsoft offered a small divestiture as a form of restructured deal.
CMA said they can't accept new remedies at this stage, the new restructured deal must go under a new probe.

Microsoft-Activision deal moves closer as judge denies FTC injunction request

The U.S. government can now bring the judge's decision to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit.

www.cnbc.com

UK's CMA open to new Microsoft-Activision probe after u-turn

Britain's competition regulator said on Wednesday a restructured deal between Microsoft and Activision Blizzard could satisfy its concerns, subject to a new investigation, marking a climbdown in its opposition to the biggest gaming deal in history.

www.reuters.com

The whole thing seems basically to allow CMA to skip the CAT appeal and take the ball directly into their hands again.

Okay, so what the CMA is saying is that the deal, as it exists, cannot have remedies accepted. But if the deal was restructured by MS and ABK, they could take another look at it. It would end the current appeal process. But in doing so, the CMA would have to undertake another investigation that will take time. Which, of course, could still ultimately end in them not liking it.

 

[Kilau]

 

[RobRSG]

CMA playing chess here lmao

They are in fact playing dumb.

 

[GHG]

Just got a volume alert on ATVI in pre-market.

100k shares traded in the last 2 minutes.

Something might be happening.

Edit: ignore this, it was from when the CMA gave the update earlier, my notification was delayed.

 

[ShaiKhulud1989]

Okay, so what the CMA is saying is that the deal, as it exists, cannot have remedies accepted. But if the deal was restructured by MS and ABK, they could take another look at it. It would end the current appeal process. But in doing so, the CMA would have to undertake another investigation that will take time. Which, of course, could still ultimately end in them not liking it.

This all sounds like a British ruse to remove CAT from the process and now everything is back in hands of the CMA. Again.

Or maybe I'm imagining things.

 

[Jigsaah]

I would have advised you to save writing all of that before reading this:

Again, I didn't say you were wrong. I asked for the evidence because I don't know the full context. Now that I have this, it helps.

I think it's important to note that the conclusion (line 114) is prefaced by what is said in first paragraph. So they said it would depend on specific circumstances. They concluded that these circumstances would not be achievable.

Just because one doesn't have incentive does not dictate what they will actually do.

I do shit without incentive all the time. There can be other reasons. One pretty huge one is...we gotta plan to get ABK and COD. We can now subsidize any potential loss from making Zenimax games exclusive.

In the grand scheme of things, this could be considered deceptive if for no other reason than at the time of writing, Bethesda games were already being made exclusives

 

[adamsapple]

Just got a volume alert on ATVI in pre-market.

100k shares traded in the last 2 minutes.

Something might be happening.

Deal closing today confirmed.

 

[Sanepar]

FIFA is euroland ... cant see Europe favoring xbox even for fifa ... cant see EA taking this risk either... COD is different you cam bet on the american market for exclusivity.. FIFA ? not fucking way

Remember is not a risky for who sells. They get their money and go away. They don't care and most of users will go where these five games are. Some will buy a ff, or a starfield or spiderman game but this is a plus. Most of users will be orbiting around these 5 franchises.

At this point Sony need to count with luck and othet companies(meta, tencent, apple, alphabet and amazon) getting the other publishers so they can stay in the game. I will say again if ms gets EA is over or T2 before GTA releases.

The game for MS is simple: put PS under a situation of lack of content. Get the users and then enforce cloud and renting model. For me this is obvious.

 

[Sanepar]

Respectfully disagree, especially considering what Nintendo are doing.

Their current business model is heavily reliant on those titles but it doesn't have to be that way in order for them to survive and be successful.

Yeap I agree but Sony can emulate Nintendo model of quality and quantity? To have Nintendo model we need more than 1-2 games per year.

 

[GHG]

Deal closing today confirmed.

Just a glitch in the system, sorry.

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

Deal closing today confirmed.

They have to wait until the 15th I believe.

 

[splattered]

 

[ulantan]

Yeap I agree but Sony can emulate Nintendo model of quality and quantity? To have Nintendo model we need more than 1-2 games per year.

Unfortunately for Sony they don't have the IP or fan base for the Nintendo model.

 

[dotnotbot]

It's crazy how Microsoft is manipulating media. It's like they have their own paid actors everywhere.

 

[ShaiKhulud1989]

It's crazy how Microsoft is manipulating media. It's like they have their own paid actors everywhere.

The whole CMA spin of reality is something to behold.

 

[Kilau]

Have fun with the crazy.

 

[Mr Moose]

So MS are spreading misinformation about the CMA? Would that be correct?

 

[Varteras]

This all sounds like a British ruse to remove CAT from the process and now everything is back in hands of the CMA. Again.

Or maybe I'm imagining things.

I don't think that's what is happening. I think the CMA is offering MS and ABK a potential solution, knowing that the deal dies on the 18th unless it is restructured. So they are saying, "As the deal exists, it will die. Either because it times out or because the appeal process probably won't matter for the deal as it exists. But, if you restructure it, which would be a renegotiation with a new timeline, we may be willing to agree to it if what you restructure it to looks good".

 

[ShaiKhulud1989]

So MS are spreading misinformation about the CMA? Would that be correct?

More like very positive take on the whole negotiating process with some omissions from the brief.

 

[GHG]

Again, I didn't say you were wrong. I asked for the evidence because I don't know the full context. Now that I have this, it helps.

I think it's important to note that the conclusion (line 114) is prefaced by what is said in first paragraph. So they said it would depend on specific circumstances. They concluded that these circumstances would not be achievable.

Just because one doesn't have incentive does not dictate what they will actually do.

I do shit without incentive all the time. There can be other reasons. One pretty huge one is...we gotta plan to get ABK and COD. We can now subsidize any potential loss from making Zenimax games exclusive.

In the grand scheme of things, this could be considered deceptive if for no other reason than at the time of writing, Bethesda games were already being made exclusives

Of course they are free to change their mind, it's their property now so they can do as they wish with it. The key thing in all of this however is that circumstances they outlined haven't arisen.

But I also think there was some wordplay there on their part, particularly around the statement in 112 and the notion that people wouldn't bring all of their game purchasing activity over to Xbox - they don't give a fuck about this and just want people to subscribe to gamepass.

 

[Topher]

the thread

 

[ShaiKhulud1989]

the thread

I'm just keeping my clown costume near my PC, just in case. This is a ride for sure lol.

 

[Zok310]

I don't think that's what is happening. I think the CMA is offering MS and ABK a potential solution, knowing that the deal dies on the 18th unless it is restructured. So they are saying, "As the deal exists, it will die. Either because it times out or because the appeal process probably won't matter for the deal as it exists. But, if you restructure it, which would be a renegotiation with a new timeline, we may be willing to agree to it if what you restructure it to looks good".

Yeah, and if the restructure is no good it gets blocked by the cma again. They better off letting the CAT deal with it.
What could they offer the cma after the original prohibition? The cma is playing MS.

 

[DryvBy]

Ok so what's going on since I quit looking? FTC is going through an appeal and CMA is on the top rope again?

 

[Kittehkraken]

I wouldn't jump the gun just yet, the CMA hasn't accepted anything.

 

[GHG]

Yeah, and if the restructure is no good it gets blocked by the cma again. They better off letting the CAT deal with it.
What could they offer the cma after the original prohibition? The cma is playing MS.

At this point it doesn't matter. Unless the FTC have a successful appeal (I don't think they will even bother to appeal at all) then they will close the deal regardless of the CMA's stance and deal with the consequences later.

 

[adamsapple]

So MS are spreading misinformation about the CMA? Would that be correct?

No, lol. They've only said one comment via Brad that the litigation has been put on pause, the same thing CMA said yesterday. Everything else since then was twitter conjecture.

 

[Banjo64]

If the CMA actually pulls out a rabbit from a hat and stops this I will, until the day I die, publicly defend English food as the best in the world. And that includes the offense to God that is putting a pie in a burger bun.

Do you mean to tell me that's not a worldwide delicacy?

 

[Topher]

No, lol. They've only said one comment via Brad that the litigation has been put on pause, the same thing CMA said yesterday. Everything else since then was twitter conjecture.

Thanks, Brad.

 

[adamsapple]

Thanks, Brad.

 

[Banjo64]

I fail to see how this latest CMA development helps Microsoft in respect of the deadline.

This isn't going to be done in a week by the sounds of it.

Was I right about the premature ejaculation celebrations?

 

[NickFire]

Activision's stock is trading pretty close to the buyout price I think. If CMA requires a new deal that requires shareholder approval, is there anything to stop Activision from requesting 3 Billion for a deal not having been closed next week?

And for people who really play the stock market - how would major shareholders look at this scenario? Would a $1 to $4 overpayment be enough incentive to agree to another deal at this juncture?

 

[Heisenberg007]

Have fun with the crazy.

You beat me to this GIF.

One busy day at the office, and I come back to this thread feeling completely lost and feeling like I missed dozens of updates

Just wake me up when it gets approved or blocked now

 

[DeepEnigma]

Time to update the thread title again?

 

[Bernardougf]

Remember is not a risky for who sells. They get their money and go away. They don't care and most of users will go where these five games are. Some will buy a ff, or a starfield or spiderman game but this is a plus. Most of users will be orbiting around these 5 franchises.

At this point Sony need to count with luck and othet companies(meta, tencent, apple, alphabet and amazon) getting the other publishers so they can stay in the game. I will say again if ms gets EA is over or T2 before GTA releases.

The game for MS is simple: put PS under a situation of lack of content. Get the users and then enforce cloud and renting model. For me this is obvious.

I agree with you that this is their clear intention...

 

[Varteras]

Yeah, and if the restructure is no good it gets blocked by the cma again. They better off letting the CAT deal with it.
What could they offer the cma after the original prohibition? The cma is playing MS.

I really don't think this is malicious. The CMA can't accept any remedies from the deal as it is. Because that would be a violation of the process. So when the 18th hits, the deal either dies waiting for the appeal or it gets renegotiated with a new deadline, but if the deal is the same structure it likely won't matter because the CAT is unlikely to find fault. The CMA is saying that since a renegotiation will have to be the case anyways, if both parties want to pursue this, why not also restructure to something they may find more agreeable? Doing so would end the current appeal process and be a kind of restart. What they are warning is that doing so may not necessarily mean it gets to the end very quickly.

 

[Heisenberg007]

I fail to see how this latest CMA development helps Microsoft in respect of the deadline.

This isn't going to be done in a week by the sounds of it.

Was I right about the premature ejaculation celebrations?

Considering the momentum they have now, it'd be super easy barely an inconvenience for Microsoft/ABK to extend the contract - especially after CMA's suspicious response yesterday and the timing of it.

This deal seems pretty much done. Unless the CMA was planning the biggest troll of the century in retaliation to Brad Smith's "business is closed in UK" remarks that they took unreasonably personal

 

[Woody337]

Can someone explain to me what the big deal about this is? I'm console neutral so either way im good but why is everyone so obsessed with microsoft buying them? It wont change a thing for xbox owners so what gives?

 

[Chukhopops]

So MS are spreading misinformation about the CMA? Would that be correct?

Depends whether they are the source on the CNBC initial story about the "small divestiture" but nothing indicates it with certainty.

 

[GHG]

Can someone explain to me what the big deal about this is? I'm console neutral so either way im good but why is everyone so obsessed with microsoft buying them? It wont change a thing for xbox owners so what gives?

In Cold Blood someone is in need of your education.