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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
zapper said:
"I'd be surprised if they would waste taxpayer resources on something like that. ... I can't imagine the 9th Circuit would grant the stay. .... I would think that would be highly unlikely, and it just wouldn't be productive"
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Kevin Hart GIF by PeacockTV
 
NickFire said:
DeepEnigma DeepEnigma - the more I read the CMA statement the more I believe that nothing was offered yet. Having read it again I am not sure the CMA is even part of the talks with MS yet. It's possible that just AB and MS are talking about a possible new deal to offer the CMA, which CMA is merely willing to comment on with the caveat that any official review has to follow the normal course.

Having said that, I still struggle to accept the notion that MS went through all of this without some backdoor deal with the CMA. I suppose that MS might just intend to go down fighting until the 10 count, win or lose, but really? Would they really let all that dirty laundry air in the FTC PI trial just to have CMA turn the entire trial into internet commentator fodder?

Is that really possible?
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So, purely market manipulation on the fake news then.
 
IntentionalPun said:
Yes let's quote CNBC, and not the CMA, who said this:



There is zero actual indication aside from shitty print CNBC.com that anything has been officially offered.

Either way nothing was rejected, sorry you were wrong.



The "splitting hairs" is you endlessly ignoring that you said they had something REJECTED.. You seemed to have misread the CNBC correction as a rejection, when it wasn't one.

And it's not splitting hairs.. we are talking legal process here, the word "submit" has meaning here. There is no real indication from anyone reliable that anything was submitted lol CLEARLY CNBC is not reliable here.
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I can see where you're coming from that it isn't 100% clear but it also reads like something was submitted and CMA asked for something better.
 
Ginzeen said:
Not at all I'm still here. Where are these receipts? Everything right now is hear say. I'm confident this deal is done. That's it.
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Right.....I asked "says who?" and you went silent. So this is all conjecture on your part but you presenting as if it is factual data when you know full well it isn't. You are just guessing like the rest of us.
 
DeepEnigma said:
Ok.

CMA's response this morning was all a coinkydink when opening with (paraphrased) "you can't offer remedies to our final decision, totes make a new deal and we will agree to pause and entertain."

Either way, was market manipulation in the headlines.
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That's them explaining in a PR what the process is, why you think that means MS somehow "submitted" something (I guess their trillion dollar lawyers don't know the process) and had to be "Told" how it works is completely beyond me.

You know who doesn't know how this shit works?

The media.. hence.. yesterday.. hence.. CMA having to explain it. lol
 
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IntentionalPun said:
That's them explaining in a PR what the process is, why you think that means MS somehow "submitted" something (I guess their trillion dollar lawyers don't know the process) and had to be "Told" how it works is completely beyond me.

You know who doesn't know how this shit works?

The media.. hence.. yesterday.. hence.. CMA having to explain it. lol
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IDK, Brad Smith was a trillion dollar lawyer saying some of the dumbest shit into the PR ether.
 
Pelta88 said:
Yeah umm...

That's not how contractual obligations work. There's an 3 Billion dollar fee and a renegotiation that needs to happen on that specific date.
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Show me in the contract where it says the contract ends on the 18th.
After the 18th Activision are free to walk at any time with $3billion of MS's money so I can't imagine MS would want to proceed very far without amended contract but I don't see where the contract is done on the 18th.
 
Topher said:
Right.....I asked "says who?" and you went silent. So this is all conjecture on your part but you presenting as if it is factual data when you know full well it isn't. You are just guessing like the rest of us.
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I never said it was fact. I'm just very confident and deemed it as theater. No way MS doesn't have a plan. It's done to me. I'm still very confident.
 
IFireflyl said:
But that also doesn't help keep competition in the UK. If Microsoft just pulls xCloud in the UK, this means that consumers have less choice. This is still proof that Microsoft acquiring Activision leads to less options for the consumer, at least when it comes to cloud. Microsoft isn't going to pull out of the cloud market in the UK and then allow Activision content to be on Amazon Luna (just as an example).
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It's jut one example I can think of, who knows what they really offered in their 'small' divestiture.. Besides, CMA used the 'reducing choice and innovation' remark when using Cloud as the reason they denied the merger in UK, if you remove cloud from the equation, it takes away their concern
 
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DeepEnigma said:
So, purely market manipulation on the fake news then.
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Possible for sure and not something I will dismiss.

But maybe they just believe they can eventually work through anything if given enough time, and since they owe 3 Billion once they stop fighting to just keep going. I'm a little more risk averse and wouldn't have wanted dirty laundry aired like that if the ending seemed inevitable. But maybe once you are rich as those guys you truly do not give an F when there's money to be made. Plus, they know they have their twitter choir to drum beat any new narrative anyway. So yeah, maybe this actually is MS's hail mary in the final two minutes. MAYBE.
 
By the way, this was the tweet yesterday about the CMA.

In hindsight, the way it's worded implied that everything was initiated by the CMA. I think that sent the wrong impression - especially during a time when everybody was already celebrating the Microsoft win vs. the FTC.



Seems very odd to put it that way when the reality turned out to be quite different.
 
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poppabk said:
Show me in the contract where it says the contract ends on the 18th.
After the 18th Activision are free to walk at any time with $3billion of MS's money so I can't imagine MS would want to proceed very far without amended contract but I don't see where the contract is done on the 18th.
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Haven't seen the contract but didn't the MS lawyer say to the judge that a preliminary injunction would push the deal past the 18th and effectively kill the deal? (Paraphrasing, but I think it was something like that)
 
DeepEnigma said:
IDK, Brad Smith was a trillion dollar lawyer saying some of the dumbest shit into the PR ether.
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A lawyer MS wouldn't let near the actual process of this case because he's not really a lawyer anymore lol

Look.. the CMA pretty well spelled it out.

- They had a chat, MS and ABK indicated they are willing to re-structure (CMA"s words) *
- The 2 sides agreed to pause the CAT process
- The CMA is prepared to hear the re-structure offer

* Now did they actually discuss the content of a potential offer? Maybe, we have no clue. Whatever was said was enough for the CMA to agree to pause CAT and hear their offer in an official proceeding. Maybe they were told some ideas of what concessions MS might be willing to draw up, maybe they weren't..

But you can't reject something when there is no process for them to have officially submitted anything lol
 
bitbydeath said:
Haven't seen the contract but didn't the MS lawyer say to the judge that a preliminary injunction would push the deal past the 18th and effectively kill the deal? (Paraphrasing, but I think it was something like that)
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if I were Actiblizz and I could walk away with 3b free dollars, I'd do it.

I think the binding component of the contract ends, but the contract itself doesnt. People are misconstruing the binding component of said contract with the totality of it. Its sort of like, you have a 6 month lease that turns month to month after that. You are still bound by the lease (no trashing the place etc) but you are no longer bound by time constraints, so you could leave with 1 months notice or whatever.

In this case, if Actiblizz walked away prior to the 18th they lose money, but if they leave after the 18th they make a whole lot of kinda free money.
 
IntentionalPun said:
A lawyer MS wouldn't let near the actual process of this case because he's not really a lawyer anymore lol

Look.. the CMA pretty well spelled it out.

- They had a chat, MS and ABK indicated they are willing to re-structure (CMA"s words) *
- The 2 sides agreed to pause the CAT process
- The CMA is prepared to hear the re-structure offer

* Now did they actually discuss the content of a potential offer? Maybe, we have no clue. Whatever was said was enough for the CMA to agree to pause CAT and hear their offer in an official proceeding. Maybe they were told some ideas of what concessions MS might be willing to draw up, maybe they weren't..

But you can't reject something when there is no process for them to have officially submitted anything lol
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I can agree with this. The speculation is based off the fake news possibly doing their fake news thing.
 
IntentionalPun said:
A lawyer MS wouldn't let near the actual process of this case because he's not really a lawyer anymore lol

Look.. the CMA pretty well spelled it out.

- They had a chat, MS and ABK indicated they are willing to re-structure (CMA"s words) *
- The 2 sides agreed to pause the CAT process
- The CMA is prepared to hear the re-structure offer

* Now did they actually discuss the content of a potential offer? Maybe, we have no clue. Whatever was said was enough for the CMA to agree to pause CAT and hear their offer in an official proceeding. Maybe they were told some ideas of what concessions MS might be willing to draw up, maybe they weren't..

But you can't reject something when there is no process for them to have officially submitted anything lol
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I agree with this entire post. But point of order on the bold - whatever was said could have been as innocuous as "would you like to enjoy the summer weather with the continuance we objected to last week?"

It literally could have been an offer to take a break from the case while Activision and MS renegotiate between themselves.
 
NickFire said:
I agree with this entire post. But point of order on the bold - whatever was said could have been as innocuous as "would you like to enjoy the summer weather with the continuance we objected to last week?"

It literally could have been an offer to take a break from the case while Activision and MS renegotiate between themselves.
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Right, it could literally have just been "We are willing to re-structure" and that's it.

The fact CMA wanted a delay in the 1st place could easily have been enough for them to go "Ok we'll pause and allow you to do that."

Lots of XBox fans are hoping there's already some handshake deal in place or something and it's all the CMA wanting to "save face" and all this garbage but from everything I've seen, they don't really move like that.

MS/ACTI both seem to think they can make it work, but they've been pretty confident before and had the CMA slap them down.
 
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IntentionalPun said:
Lots of XBox fans are hoping there's already some handshake deal in place or something and it's all the CMA wanting to "save face" and all this garbage but from everything I've seen, they don't really move like that.
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I can't fault them for that. The timing of how everything went down yesterday, the spin / false reports, the money in play for the deal itself, and the money that backs MS in general, certainly had me convinced of a handshake deal. I'm still not convinced there isn't one.
 
KellyM said:
As said the info about Microsoft might pull all first parties titles out of the UK if the CMA is not overturned, comes from many sources i have heard on youtube, Here is one that mentions it, just today, There are others and not just him.

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I mean I like RGT85 (really glad he's recovering well from that near fatal health scare a little while back) but Youtubers have proven repeatedly they don't tend to be very well-informed on complicated things and one of the largest MAs in history is not something I'd trust them for

FrankWza said:
Dance Hamster GIF by Dedoles

Ray Liotta Reaction GIF
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does Level 1 finally get me my own pair of green socks? 🤔

Dick Jones said:
No Redfall in the UK?

not like this GIF
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how long before an exodus of Gaffers to the UK if that's true? :messenger_winking_tongue:
 
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KellyM said:
As said the info about Microsoft might pull all first parties titles out of the UK if the CMA is not overturned, comes from many sources i have heard on youtube, Here is one that mentions it, just today, There are others and not just him.

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That is not a "source". That's just some guy on YouTube who knows no more about what MS is going to do than anyone else.
 
Topher said:
That is not a "source". That's just some guy on YouTube who knows no more about what MS is going to do than anyone else.
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He and others on youtube like MVG and nate the hate know more inside sources, then many here, So i would take his opinion over the people here. I didn't say he was a source. I said he and many others are saying that is what Microsoft has mnetioned that they would do if the CMA continues to block the merger, especially since it going through in the USA and have already passed many other countries including europe itself,
 
KellyM said:
He and others on youtube like MVG and nate the hate know more inside sources, then many here, So i would take his opinion over the people here. I didn't say he was a source. I said he and many others are saying that is what Microsoft has mnetioned that they would do if the CMA continues to block the merger, especially since it going through in the USA and have already passed many other countries including europe itself,
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Well, yeah you did say he was a source.

"comes from many sources i have heard on youtube, Here is one..."

And they all know exactly we know. Microsoft was rumored to have been looking into ways to get around the CMA block. That came out of MLex via Idas. If you want to believe anything beyond that then it is up to you, but no one else here has to put any stock into it.
 
Topher said:
Well, yeah you did say he was a source.

"comes from many sources i have heard on youtube, Here is one..."

And they all know exactly we know. Microsoft was rumored to have been looking into ways to get around the CMA block. That came out of MLex via Idas. If you want to believe anything beyond that then it is up to you, but no one else here has to put any stock into it.
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Just my 2 cents and this is 100% pure speculation the CMA is not blocking this, something will get figured out by Monday
 
Where is HeisenbergFX4 HeisenbergFX4 ?

Spill the beans if you know. What are you hearing? Does MS have a handshake deal in place with CMA, or is this a final push to see if they can find a way forward?

Edit - never mind - just saw above.
 
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bitbydeath said:
Haven't seen the contract but didn't the MS lawyer say to the judge that a preliminary injunction would push the deal past the 18th and effectively kill the deal? (Paraphrasing, but I think it was something like that)
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Pretty sure Bobby said it, MS may have said it also. With the FTC having an injunction which could stall the deal for years and having the two major markets winning in court or having a block would certainly made it extremely likely that Activision would take the money and run.
 
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